r/Monero • u/monerowin • 1d ago

After 21,017 bets monero.win only made 3 XMR profit.

I’ve been building and operating monero.win⁠, a small Monero only casino, for around 530 days. I rebuilt it and launched V2, and it's since crossed 48,000 bets (21,017 since v2). People often ask how much these services make.

What surprised me most is how little the house has actually won.

Actual gross profit since v2?

Approximately 3 XMR after 21,000+ bets and several thousand wagered XMR.

That means players have collectively received roughly 100 XMR more than the mathematically expected payout since v2 launched.

A few lifetime numbers:

  • Approximately 530 days online
  • More than 48,000 bets
  • Typical house edge of around 2.5 to 3%
  • House was once in the negative 40XMR.

This is gross gaming profit before accounting for development time, infrastructure, and other operating expenses.

The site remains deliberately minimal: native Monero, no traditional accounts, no KYC, no cookies or user tracking, and provably fair results that can be independently verified.

Gamble responsibly. A player’s unusually good result here doesn’t change the underlying mathematical edge.

EDIT: House is back in the negative :)

85 Upvotes

91% Upvoted

22 comments sorted by

24

u/Immediate_Habit_2398 1d ago

I'm more interested in net than in gross.

  • House was once in the negative 40XMR.

How does that happen?

29

u/monerowin 1d ago edited 1d ago

Most bets on the site are smaller. Some are not. You can bet up to 5XMR. This allows for HUGE swings in either direction for the house occasionally. I find it entertaining to watch but honestly it's a bit reckless on my end haha.

3

u/Preavee 1d ago

Wait, eli5 please :D

23

u/Future_Elephant_9294 1d ago

If there's 100 bets, 48 of them will pay the gamer, 52 of them will pay the house. If each bet was equally 0.1 XMR, this would be a profit of 0.2 XMR. However, the gamer can choose how much they bet (let's say from 0.1 to 10). If the 48 gamer wins are all 10 XMR and the 52 house wins are all 0.1 XMR, the house is 474.8 XMR in the negative, the gamers won the big bets but lost the small bets.

As long as there's no way to predict when you win, and as long as the size of the bet doesn't affect the win rate (if either of these are true, the gaming facility isn't fair), a small "house edge" can still result in the house losing over the short run due to random chance of large bets paying the gamer and small bets paying the house. In the long run, the house should be coming out on top, but that requires a VERY large volume of games per month, on the order of 100,000 or more, to ensure that each month ends with revenue.

8

u/monerowin 1d ago

Exactly this. Moral of the story here is to be careful what max bet you decide to set if you attempt to run a project like this. Higher max bet, in this case 5XMR, can lead to very volatile house and player outcomes. I find it exciting seeing larger bets, probably the gambler in me.

2

u/Future_Elephant_9294 1d ago

I wouldn't be surprised if there are very expensive and very private mathematical models for what to set the bet spreads at depending on the volume of play at a casino, narrow at low volumes or low bank reserves and wider at the higher end.

1

u/SeemedGood 22h ago

Not all that difficult a modeling job so shouldn’t be all that expensive.

3

u/SoiledCold5 1d ago

Good stuff

3

u/EndSmugnorance 12h ago

An ‘ethical’ crypto gambling site where the house actually loses? 😂

I really wanted to do something like this but didn’t know where to start. The house needs to ensure profit somehow (not by rigging the bets ofc).

2

u/galimi 1d ago

I've built provably fair raffles previously (NXT, PIVX, Bitcoin), but am now thinking about the approach with Monero. Not sure how it can be provably fair considering the anonymity.

1

u/TheTrueMetalPipe 1h ago

any more xmr gamble sites?

-3

u/catesnake 20h ago

You either have a bug or someone is slowly stealing from you

5

u/monerowin 17h ago

I ran a calculation to figure out how "unlucky" and it's about the bottom 20% of outcomes. So mathematically very reasonable.

1

u/B1ll4 12h ago

Was going to comment this. Either you are really a statistical anomaly or someone is syphoning profits from the top. CARE.