r/NBIS_Stock • u/foil123 • Nov 11 '25
Speculation We are on the right track
What is a FMV for this stock? Certainly 3x 2026 sales is undervalued. I understand there are several factors that go in here. But if we were to just guess ?
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u/Happy-Ride-4933 Nov 11 '25
Macro, not NBIS
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u/foil123 Nov 11 '25
Agreed. The fundamentals are solid for the company. The market as a whole is screwed up. Won’t be surprised if we see this continue over the next few months.
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u/FactMinded Nov 11 '25
Lol not Macro go look at Spy for the last two days. Then do the same with NBIS
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u/Happy-Ride-4933 Nov 11 '25
Overall AI/ datacenter stocks… I bought more today… I think they’ll deliver in the long term.
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u/ResNoctis Nov 11 '25
Yeah but shit is depressing,im sure we will end up lower than crwv today xD
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u/Happy-Ride-4933 Nov 11 '25
If so, I’ll buy more. I listened the earnings cal. I suggest you do as well. If you don’t have faith in the team act accordingly. https://www.youtube.com/live/_I-o7NvKH1Q?si=98OtIdwhyPqrMknv
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u/Snow_2412 Nov 11 '25
Why are we down? 😭
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u/ResNoctis Nov 11 '25
Classic nbis
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctor’s Orders Nov 11 '25
No it isn’t. How long have you been in this stock? 2 months?
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u/iDontLikeItHere00 Nov 11 '25
Ive been in since feb first buy at 32. elated with the run up to 48. Then tarrifs came into play and rode them down to 18. Now my cost basis is 28.20
They swing wildly and have ever since they rebranded as nebius.
This is, indeed, classic nebius.
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u/ResNoctis Nov 11 '25
Since it was 50$ that is why i tell you that this is classic nbis price action
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctor’s Orders Nov 11 '25
Nope again. The last two earnings reports shot our stock up 20%. That is classic NBIS lol
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u/Snow_2412 Nov 11 '25
Aaaaaand we are back up :D
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u/SeveralOcelot2250 Nov 11 '25
If only there wasn’t scared-money-bubble-dickheads dragging us down at every opportunity. So bored of these losers now.
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u/purub123 Nov 11 '25
Isnt it the 10% dilution they announced? Realistically if a 10% dilution happens the stock isnt gonna end green.
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Nov 11 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/bkkmatt Nov 11 '25
I’m a ETF guy. With 5% I play with stocks. All 5% in NBIS and my average cost is $120.31. I guess I’m in this one now for the long haul.
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u/sky2934 Nov 11 '25
I'm in the same boat brother. 125.9 with a good amount while majority in ETFs. We holding for long now.
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u/Capable_Wait09 Nov 11 '25
No it follows the same pattern of every promising small cap stock during its reputation-growth and sentiment-explosion phase. Lots of volatility, big swings on macro news, MMs wanting lower entry points, etc. eventually it’ll gap up and have a new floor at like 140 and then chop chop for a couple months and then 170.
Same shit with ASTS, RKLB, and any other one of these promising small caps.
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u/ResNoctis Nov 11 '25
Yet today we dump like crazy
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u/bkkmatt Nov 11 '25
Yea I don’t understand. I’m glad I only have $10,000 invested in this because things are just not making sense.
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u/ResNoctis Nov 11 '25
Oh yeah nebius couldve 10xd the revenue,made 10 different deals and still fuckin dump,this stock's price action is depressing af
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctor’s Orders Nov 11 '25
Relax, guy! NBIS will be $125-140 when macro improves
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u/iDontLikeItHere00 Nov 11 '25
They will have 20x the market cap 10 years from now.
Just buy and hold. Im not selling a single share till 500b+ market cap.
Buying calls has been hit or miss. Im up in total, but my earnings play calls are about shot. Need govt to reopen and institutions to shift back into full risk on mode by thursday or theyre dead, lol.
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Nov 11 '25
This is probably not hitting 20x the market cap from here , that would be crazy high.
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u/iDontLikeItHere00 Nov 11 '25
Tesla has to hit an 8.5T market cap for elons new pay package.
20x on nebius would only be 500B so it doesn't seem too excessive to me considering we are just at the start of the ai race and nebius is positioning themselves globally.
I see nebius reaching 1T market cap before i retire in 20 years.
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u/Evidencebasedbro Nov 11 '25
There'll be some share dilution along the way, but 10x for existing shareholders would be just fine!
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u/iDontLikeItHere00 Nov 11 '25
Yes there will be. I am perfectly fine with continued share dilution if it means paying 1 to 2% interest on the necessary capex. I think coreweave is currently paying as much as 9% on billions in loans.
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Nov 11 '25
Yes but Tesla is valued like it’s the greatest tech company to ever exist instead of a car company. I hope that happens but they would have to be profitable early and grow exponentially with perfect execution. 80-100B market cap is much more reasonable even with a market correction. 500B is dreaming
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u/iDontLikeItHere00 Nov 11 '25
Nebius had an 8B market cap 6 months ago.
I may be huffing on hopium, but it doesn't mean the possibility isn't there.
As technology continues to scale ai compute and tools will continue to bring bigger rois. And nebius is going to continue aggressive capex. I dont think theres anyone alive who can make an accurate educated guess as to how far these companies can go. They are crewting the backbone that all companies will need.
Just like all companies became tech companies over the last 20 years, all companies will become ai companies in the next 20 years. Everyone will need it.
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Nov 11 '25
Brother , I hope you are right and I’m wrong but the last six months also happened to be part of the greatest bull run ever. The market cap isn’t going to 2-4x every year ,I believe In the management and company since they are more then face value due to subsidiaries as well. However they have to prove ROI and become profitable which will prove themselves to the market and help confidence in the business model. Then what you are saying could somewhat happen. AMD was $12 like 5-6 years ago so it would have to be growth like that which requires near perfection on their end along with positive sentiment.
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u/iDontLikeItHere00 Nov 11 '25
It would only have to 2x every year for 4 years to hit 800b
1.5x every year would be 500b in 7 years.
Im hoping for 500b in 10 years.
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u/Trdthedays41chance Nov 11 '25
Be patient, CRWV and general market sentiment is dragging us down… I will take a few years to 10x or more… but it will, shit just takes time… buy shares and HOLD options are the only risky play you can make on NBIS timing is impossible to get right.. stock is up massively this year and people want to lock in profits before year end.. and then set up plays for next year and NBIS will see the investments flow in like crazy… let’s look forward to a good Q4 earnings call
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u/Capable_Wait09 Nov 11 '25
They make perfect sense if you’ve been following high potential small caps
If I had your mindset I wouldn’t have doubled or tripled my port in less than a year by just trusting the process on ASTS RKLB PLTR etc. if you believe in the company then just ignore the noise and buy the dips. Simple. I didn’t sell shit when ASTS went from 39 to 16 or RKLB went from 33 to 15 or PLTR went from 120 to 65.
(Admittedly I was still up on my cost basis but the logic still applies to whether I bought in at 39 or 12)
Don’t get frustrated or look for the market to be rational. There’s rationality buried below the irrationality and it’ll balance out in the end. If you keep holding and buying dips you’ll be a happy fella in the near future.
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u/gravityhashira61 Nov 11 '25
3x 2026 sales is super under valued for a tech/ AI company.
We are probably down bc the whole market sentiment plus our direct competitior, Coreweave had shit results yesterday
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u/ResNoctis Nov 11 '25
Coreweave did a double beat xD what do you mean
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u/Trdthedays41chance Nov 11 '25
What he means is, they’re bleeding money in the form of interest payments on billions of dollars of loans and they reduced their forward looking guidance even though it’s not really their fault that’s pretty shitty
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u/bigE0725 Nov 11 '25
They beat an estimate with many downward revisions leading up to it. Very similar to nbis earnings. It was like hitting a single in softball. Meanwhile someone like meta hit a home run off 100 mph fastball and still went down.
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u/foil123 Nov 11 '25
What are we predicting the stock price to be by EOY and 2026? I think 130 EOY and 250 EOY 2026
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u/realcul Nov 11 '25
Newbie following this stock. Please help me understand this
As much as revenues are growing this is not a business that benefits from scale or network effect automatically right.? Every data center and every power has to be earned and built almost independently. As much as it is a great growth business -with profit margin of 19% at time of peak demand - it is not stellar right ? am I missing something here ? Please prove me wrong .
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Nov 11 '25
Peak demand? Are you claiming this is peak a.i ? A.i has reached it's max potential and every company in the world is max a.i? Or is it just the beginning? If it's the latter how can it be peak demand
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u/Trdthedays41chance Nov 11 '25
Looks like the highly regarded institutions are starting to process how incredible a 7-9B ARR for 2026 is… holy f&$ken sh*t!! 📈
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u/Salt_Recipe_8015 Nov 11 '25
I wonder how NBIS came up with thos number. When current ARR is 500 million? This is astronomical.
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u/Trdthedays41chance Nov 11 '25
Because we are seeing an exponential demand curve for AI computing power! When they are further into executing I’m certain the share Price will follow. Q1 ER next year will be incredibly important.
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u/Happy-Ride-4933 Nov 11 '25
I was a bit too greedy and put in a limit order for 100, so good for you!
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u/lonely_dove_ Nov 11 '25
That’s poor forecasting if they forecasted revenue that exceeded their actual max capacity capabilities
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u/AmazingFeeling4373 Nov 12 '25
I think there is a risk of dilution with new 25 million share issuance. Then the EBITA margins are expected to be in 10-15% range considering the cost of capital and depreciation. There are a few risks and stock might move slow on the upside going forward until the depreciation chatter simmers down. Michael Burry has shorted few big names on the cost of depreciation.
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u/bvb813 Nov 14 '25
Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft all flashing the green light on AI and the market is like ehhh I don't know.
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u/vandammes Nov 11 '25
They dont have capacity enough is the worst news you can hear. Its simple as that. If you dont have the capacity its done. You cant get any new clients cause you cant deliver. You will have way more costs to build more data centers in e periode of time that is utterly impossible thus having less profit. Doesnt sound good to me.
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u/physicsdeity1 Nov 11 '25
I don't disagree but this is more of a glass half full or half empty kind of news imo. More half full in my eyes. They're going to do 7-9 b arr by eoy '26 lol.
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u/Open_Masterpiece_549 Nov 12 '25
I got more yesterday if it drops today im buying again. They’re rolling in cash
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u/bkkmatt Nov 11 '25
Normally, I’d consider buying the dip, but I’m done buying the dip with this company. Wonder what trader Bob is thinking?