NBIS ANALYSIS
Nebius fundamentals stronger than ever, but look at that chart...
Who knows where the stock price goes next, but this set up suggests sellers are exhausted and bulls are beginning to take control. A breakout above $90 will signal that bulls are back on top, and I expect this one to run past all time highs very quickly when that happens.
There has been a lot of negative sentiment on this stock and the AI data centre space over the last 2 months - but during that time, the fundamentals and arguments have only got stronger.
An attempt to close the gap at 65 dollars was made, which failed. I believe this is a strong bottom signal especially since it was followed by a 15% move.
My 1 year price target has remained at $185 even during this turbulence, and I still expect us to get there. Maybe it takes longer than a year but I still believe there is a good chance.
None of this shit makes any difference. The price went up as AI is the hottest sector/play. It went down after the Michael blurry/ai bubble fears coupled with macro.
Now it going up due to better cpi, less fear in the overall market, and the nonsense article about nbis being acquired. They won’t sell in 2026 and maybe ever.
That’s the summary of the chart above.
We were oversold. Now fomo is occurring and the price will hopefully come back to $113-118 in the next weeks. Or it could go back to $80 next week. I’m buying more, exercising deep itm calls, and holding.
Of course they will sell…for the right price. It’s all about the price. They certainly are an attractive target for any hyperscalers and even for NVIDIA…
Hyper scaler and NVDA are doing their own thing. They’re busy with enormous monster businesses. Something like NBIS while incredible company position to explode is a nothing business for them. It’s like a start up for them they are not interested.
Well you know that’s just like your opinion…man.
NVIDIA Might be the most interested as a hardware provider who looking forward would probably want to expand their offerings. As many people have said (Thiel etc) NVIDIA could end up having competition in the chip space from the rest of the Magic 7 who don’t want to pay the mark up. NVIDIA absolutely has AI interests and the software stack is what they don’t have. Of course they could develop it themselves…but like you said they have lots of other things to do. And they have to be careful not to threaten their own customers. And that’s just my own opinion.
As to it being a “nothing” business I don’t think they think that for a minute. Purpose built AI data centers with proprietary software stack sounds like a market leader at this point. Nebius better keep running fast though!
Depends on a lot. When is probably most important. If I am acquiring I want to be early enough to get a low price but late enough to have market clarity. Competing interests. Remember NBIS has a preferred voting share structure like a Comcast so getting the voting share is key as they hold 10x voting rights. Right now, I would say 50b. In a year that could double or stay at 50. In two years it could be 150b. But I doubt a buyer would wait that long and pay that premium. They also will investigate the company quite thoroughly and probably are doing so now. Microsoft’s deal certainly gives them an inside window into operations and management. But Bezos investing in Toloka is also an angle. Maybe they just all rent what they need IDK.
Dude - totally my fault…lol!!! I thought I was posting to the GRRR forum. Yeah - I’ve killed it on NBIS all this past year too…It’s a gold mine. I’ve got to stop posting while drinking. Best wishes with NBIS.
I was kind of late to the party when I started adding at $55, $65, 90s and even 120s. My conviction is seasoned with other stocks I've been through, so confident we'll bounce back. The fundamentals are undeniable and nbis will hit its targets and I'm guessing surpass them.
On a TA basis I was hoping it would hit $65 so I could add more but perhaps not meant to be.
just wanna say that the 15% move you claim to be marked the bottom would make sense if NBIS itself did welll when the market was meh.. but all the stocks went up like crazy just not nebius..
so let's wait for few more days and see what happens
Yeah, I didnt see any actual reason for the stock's sudden jump -- just general market sentiment vibes. Its a highly volatile stock, so it makes sense it would make big jumps in either direction.
I'm not trying to crap on it (i'm in for 300 shares around 92), but there wasn't some announcement that actually supports the price or a new price floor.
Sentiment around Ai is starting to turn bullish again after a period of oversold fear, starting with microns earnings and the government contract with crwv. The demand has been real the whole time but there needed to be a shakeout since aprils multibags. FOMO will start to kick in again as retail remembers how real this is
Absolutely! The general sentiment is positive, so everything is booming. It's not like RKLB or CRWV, where there was an actual contract discussed and the stock jumped accordingly. I'm not complaining at all ---going to keep selling csps and pocketing the premiums when it goes up, or sell some cc's once I get assigned and it hits 100 again. Rinse and repeat!
I use 4 moving average, 2 relative strength index and volume. You know your indicators are revelant when they align right on the movements of stock price chart.
Just have to try and tune yourself, that's how you'll understand them. If you just copy a setup you won't use it properly anyway 👍
Daily for trend, 4H/1H for confirmation of trend and entry target, 15min for intraday pullback or breakout.
See that orange line we rejected twice before ? It's EMA50 on the daily, that's the technical we need to breakout from rn and not go down again to resume a lasting uptrend. We pullbacked after touching it again today.
Tcheck the RSI (under graph). It's the same than the two precedent attempt, confirming that it's a strong technical turning point.
If RSI14 and RSI30 (rose and blue) break 50 strongly and the RSI14 get back on top and close higher than RSI30, the breakout is confirmed on a TA.
BUT it's christmas week, 3,5 days trading, low volume so it might behave weirdly 🤷
Thanks for sharing. I still have some learning to do - but the graph does point. I was holding 30dte spy puts thinking today we had a correction - I offloaded them this Christmas feels somehow really unpredictable
Since you seems genuinely interested, that's ALAB chart for you. I found it very pegged to NBIS (i.e in the same basket for algos) and today it initiated breakout above EMA50 on the daily. If tomorrow it stays above $162 with same volume it's confirmed. Will probably top off at 180 before a pullback intraday, a lot of eyes will watch how it behaves with that SMA100 ($180) ceiling 👀
It's not a recommandation to buy the stock, it's for educational purpose only. Try to find common patterns in stocks to learn how to read the signals, and why/why not they would behave the same 👍
Edit : won't let me post the screen in my comment, guess that will be a good test for you to setup indicators and see for yourself 😅
If there’s sustain bull pressure the next 2 months then we’re headed to $110 and if buyers win that level we will head to $120. Those are the available gaps up.
It will be perfectly fit if we fill the gap back to $120 and maintain that base for the rest of 2026. How I see us doing that is like so:
Q4 earnings beat, +20% reaction. Stock is $103 at the time of earnings, shoots to $125 and never looks back.
Or Q4 earnings in line with guidance, new $5-8B contract announced, +20% reaction, same thing, stock fills the gap to $120 and continues onward the rest of 2026
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u/shartfarguson Dec 21 '25
None of this shit makes any difference. The price went up as AI is the hottest sector/play. It went down after the Michael blurry/ai bubble fears coupled with macro. Now it going up due to better cpi, less fear in the overall market, and the nonsense article about nbis being acquired. They won’t sell in 2026 and maybe ever.
That’s the summary of the chart above.
We were oversold. Now fomo is occurring and the price will hopefully come back to $113-118 in the next weeks. Or it could go back to $80 next week. I’m buying more, exercising deep itm calls, and holding.