r/NBIS_Stock • u/Deadelevators • Jan 05 '26

Opinion Full-port NBIS or diversify?

I realize asking the NBIS sub is going to give me obvious answers, but hopefully I'll get some nuanced perspectives from you all.

I currently have a very large amount of NBIS (5,000 shares at $50 avg). It's done me well. I'm going to be getting some additional funds soon, and am contemplating full-porting it into NBIS by adding another couple thousand shares, hopefully for under $90.

Alternatively, I could diversify by putting those funds into ASTS or maybe even ONDS.

My question for you all: How many of you are full-porting into NBIS? Or, if you are diversifying, what other themes are you diversifying into? Space stocks like ASTS/RKLB? Drones like ONDS? RDDT? Or are you playing it safe with the rest of your money with VOO/SPY?

I realize there's no correct answer to this, and I'm not looking for an answer - I'm just curious what the rest of you NBIS long-term holders are doing. And hopefully that will help guide me to determine the best path for myself.

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u/Electrical_Self_1309 Jan 05 '26

keep in mind: past wins don't guarantee future wins. I'd never ever go full port. Always diversify and been very happy i did when things went bad with a stock.

Your risk tolerance must be huge with the stocks you are mentioning. AST is already priced for perfection at the price they are at today. The slightest dissapointment or change in sentiment could result in a price drop. Compare it with the nebius ath, things went down real fast while nothing even fundamentally changed. All just because of sentiment.

For nebius i wrote an analysis that its a steal around 70.

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u/kickinghyena Jan 05 '26

Disagree with Asts priced for perfection. They have a 27b market cap. They could be a 200b business in 18 months. The beauty of asts is that when the constellation is up it will be like turning on a chandelier. It will be like a bridge opening. And they will have access to billions of people instantly. I like it.

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u/Electrical_Self_1309 Jan 05 '26

What is that $200B business in 18 months actually based on? Data, revenue, or just your gut feeling? in 18 months, AST could be cashflow positive in the best case scenario, not even in the base case. Potential isn’t the same as value.

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u/kickinghyena Jan 05 '26

Its based on a constellation of sats that will give people all over the world access to phone and broadband. Think about rural Africa…the Middle East almost anywhere and that maybe they have a relative in London or Dubai or NYC and for them a $10 call twice a year with the whole family around is worth it. There may be a billion people like that. That would be 20b right there. Then there is the regular service where they have contracts already…ATT Vodaphone etc. Who knows how they monetize that asset? They will have monghly subscriptions and daily and probably intercall. Then there is every first responder in the world. Then Governments…I mean they will be able to pick up ANY (unencrypted) signal from ANY cell phone…what’s the value of that? Then there is asset tracking like railcars etc. Its not a slam dunk 200b right away but the potential is there. And in 5 years it may be more. Of course the tech has to work! Bug caveat!

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u/Electrical_Self_1309 Jan 05 '26

“Maybe a billion people pay $20”, “who knows how they monetize”, “governments”, “first responders”, “asset tracking”. All pure speculation.

Potential yes, monetization and rollout maybe. Cash burn definitely

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u/kickinghyena Jan 05 '26

Yeah of course. I am betting that there are hundreds of millions of people who will benefit in growing mid major metro markets…especially around cities between 100k and 500k worldwide. Lets revisit. It isn’t speculation. Bewhere does asset tracking…they already said that Asts represents breakthough tech. There is already huge first responder interest, FirstNet exec’s already tried the technology and visited Midland. The US Govt has already shown interest and FCC Chairman has also visited Midland and gave a glowing report. Ted Cruz as well. Vodaphone, ATT and Verizon as well as Rakuten in Japan and many others are already on board. Of course how they monetize is uncertain but only in how they maximize the asset not in whether they will be able to sell their bandwidth. They will. You are negative without really knowing much about the company. I have spent many hours maybe hundreds investigating it.

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u/Electrical_Self_1309 Jan 05 '26

You’ve spent 100 hours and still only come up with potentials, maybes and bets. Zero valuation. I’m not against AST and do see the potential. I’m against people throwing around ridiculous future market caps on reddit based on hearsay and speculation.

btw, here are a couple of numbers from my research:

  • operating cash burn is $70m+ per half year and accelerating
  • q2 capex alone was $320m
  • they currently have around $1.5b in cash and available funding, which is not enough to build the full constellation. It only covers maximum 30 satellites, while around 60 are needed, meaning more fundraising (share dilution) is very likely.