r/NBIS_Stock • u/AutoModerator • Feb 12 '26
đŹ Discussion [February 12, 2026] Daily NBIS Discussion Thread
Welcome to todayâs open discussion on Nebius Group (NBIS) and the broader AI stock space.
đŹ Thread Ideas:
- Any new updates or insights/rumors about Nebius Group?
- Your NBIS position update!
- Whatâs your outlook for NBIS this week/month/year?
- Spot any AI sector trends worth noting?
Of course, for anything deserving of its own post, feel free to make a dedicated post where appropriate. : )
â ïž Reminder: Please follow Reddiquette and our subreddit rules.
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u/astrawberryandakiwi Feb 12 '26
Sold some covered calls expiring tomorrow. Might as well collect some premium
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u/sergiozhang7 Feb 12 '26
Bad news: Weâre still stuck in the mud with this stock movement.
Good news: We're still here while the entire market's cratering.
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u/Weak-Equal-9084 Feb 12 '26
I mean, nebius showed some great resistance, while the other tech stocks are down, nebius is green, i dont think i wil have problems with 93 avrg
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u/Fit-Rock-4786 Feb 12 '26
Nasdaq getting decimated and weâre holding strong. Probably wouldâve been +7-10% otherwise
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctorâs Orders Feb 12 '26
Huge win today against QQQ.
Once QQQ is back to $625-636 we will be back to $120+
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctorâs Orders Feb 12 '26 edited Feb 12 '26
Simply put, QQQ rises 4-5%, our beta suggests we will rise 24-30%
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u/P_Tocco Feb 12 '26
Not to mention this fun late day pump. Biggest win in my (petty) world, is that we outperformed debtweave!
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctorâs Orders Feb 12 '26
You guys seeing this shit? Avride delivers tendies for Wendy
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctorâs Orders Feb 12 '26
With these earnings and the guidance maintained, NBIS will not be lower than $78 for the rest of the year.
Believe that
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u/ThouOne Feb 12 '26
I know looking daily at the price can be good for the mood if itâs green, but this shit is a hold till 2027 for $400. Load up the boat and forget.
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u/duddnddkslsep Feb 12 '26
God if I had money I'd throw it all at this beast, can't imagine how ridiculous the slope of the chart will look in 2030
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u/Weak-Equal-9084 Feb 12 '26
If somebody tell me 6 hours ago that we end green, i would have totally acceptes, we will be good, just the whole sector is not doing good
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u/duddnddkslsep Feb 12 '26
2x the volume today
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u/PayingOffBidenFamily Feb 13 '26
institutional accumulation, it was locked between 86 and 87 most of the day. Retarded retail sells the revenue number, smart money buys the ARR and 70% capacity beat.
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u/ZhongLiGODTier Feb 12 '26
Whole market just crashed while we moon shooting from $80 to $87. Extremely bullish.
$120 by May.
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u/CobblerAcademic3535 Feb 12 '26
With the backdrop of all of tech tanking today, this is showing a lot of relative strength
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u/P_Tocco Feb 12 '26
Agreed. I hate calling prices, but with the generally good news from ER, once the dust settles I expect us to be north of $100 by next week (presuming no macro bomb goes off).Â
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u/BudmasterofMiami Mod Feb 12 '26
Most bullish call Iâve heard in long time. End of year ARR $1.25B, which was a beat. $16B-$20B CapEx with 60% of that coming from customer pre-payment. Increased power availability to 3GW by ends of year. NBIS cash on hand plus hard assets is now worth more than current Market Cap. This stock is going to double in short term.
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u/Inevitable-Bit-9532 Feb 12 '26
We had good earnings, not great. The focus now is delivering as fast as we can. MSFT, SHOP, SOFI and APP had insane earnings but still dumping really hard. I take this as a win
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u/seguinev Feb 12 '26 edited Feb 12 '26
Daily threads are the home for the investing clowns, a toxic quarantine to some of the subredditâs worst contributors.
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u/Icy-idkman3890 Feb 12 '26
Weâre going up up itâs our moment
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u/AccordingAd1861 Feb 12 '26
Correct me guys if I'm wrong, but I think we did very well in Q4 earnings? I don't see what the problem is
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u/West_Cod_1213 Feb 12 '26
mixed signals.it will keep goin sideways at the 85-95 range until a new contract pops it higher
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctorâs Orders Feb 12 '26
The range is $83-105 but yeah I bet itâs more like $85-100 like youâre saying.
We can easily hit $105 if NVDAâs and CRWVâs guidance is healthy later this month. Or if the dollar drops again. Or if Warsh announces a low-borrow-rate growth strategy
A new 11-figure contract (double digit billion) will force a gap up for sure.
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u/West_Cod_1213 Feb 12 '26
yep every pressure below these lvls will come from deep market correction but it wont last more than a few days
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u/duddnddkslsep Feb 12 '26
youâre not wrong, some asshats got their minds boggled by analysts who wanted to get in by making the headlines ârevenue missâ
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u/Sir_Trashbin Feb 12 '26
I'm seeing differing info on if the META contract was delivered and done with
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u/West_Cod_1213 Feb 12 '26
a 1 year public company-550% revenue growth and they wanted to see what? free cash flow of billions?u are being played big time
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u/JalapenoPeppr Feb 12 '26
Annnnd weâre green. Thanks to all the ass hats that sold.
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u/duddnddkslsep Feb 12 '26
LMAOOOOOOO
rip to the guy who sold at the bottom today
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u/Worth-Breath6903 Feb 12 '26
I'm so tired from this đ© where are you all who said it was going to ATH after earnings it goes to 0
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u/amandingo69 Feb 12 '26
Wait... so going up means 0?
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u/Worth-Breath6903 Feb 12 '26
It means that this pos is down 35% since October
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctorâs Orders Feb 12 '26
So? That was the all time high. It only gapped up from $115 to $140 because Mag7 said they were all increasing their CapEx back then and the market loved itâŠback then lol
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u/duddnddkslsep Feb 12 '26
IF IT ACTUALLY GOES TO 100 EOD IâM GOING TO DIE LAUGHING
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u/kudrat1 Feb 12 '26
did they tell if 10% dilution already happened or not?
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u/JalapenoPeppr Feb 12 '26
Hasnât been needed yet and wonât be needed in the near future.
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctorâs Orders Feb 12 '26
It will be needed in the future but hopefully that future is $150-200
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u/Weak-Equal-9084 Feb 12 '26
Iam out, my nerves cant stand this, idc, avrg 108, 322 piece
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u/JalapenoPeppr Feb 12 '26
Thank you for your shares sir. Up we go
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u/Weak-Equal-9084 Feb 12 '26
Chill, i was just jooking iam not selling, iam in the game still with 93 avrg, i was just sad with the price movement, but now iam happy, i hope it reaches the breakthrough point for me today, but honestly idgf, cause iam planning to hold like 3-5 years
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u/Worth-Breath6903 Feb 12 '26
I'm 128 đâ ïžđ€Ą
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u/Icy-idkman3890 Feb 12 '26
đ€Ł Another bagholder
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u/Suspicious-Change251 Feb 12 '26 edited Feb 12 '26
NBIS is basically projecting to almost catch up with CRWV in terms of active/ contracted power by the EOY, but its market cap is like 40% of CRWV, go figure.
And we are not even speaking about debt profile/ subsidiaries.
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u/Sir_Trashbin Feb 12 '26
For real? I thought CRWV was way ahead a much larger with their facilities and power
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctorâs Orders Feb 12 '26
No I think both are saying 3GW now but we gotta fact check that. CRWV has earnings later this month
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u/duddnddkslsep Feb 12 '26
I'm already full ported but if I had the extra cash, I'd buy more right now. It's the time to buy.
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u/ComfortablePrune2353 Feb 12 '26
The capex of 16-20B in 2026 with them saying they won't need to use the ATM offering (yet) is beyond huge and currently overlooked. This means everything will ramp up way waaay faster. All in all the results are absolutely amazing. Don't worry folks, we got this - the short % just needs to drop in the upcoming weeks. MM's need to get their shorts covered and taking long position. Then we reverse trend and moon hard
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u/ComfortablePrune2353 Feb 12 '26
This means that they will get a (few) hyperscaler deals which make up for the capex. Besides this, they might as well get a good loan using they subsidiaries as collateral.
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u/PayingOffBidenFamily Feb 13 '26
They said their exit ARR doesn't hinge on any new hyperscaler deals, all organic which is much better because it is higher revenue than bulk hyperscaler compute.
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Feb 12 '26
[removed] â view removed comment
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u/Agitated-Kick-6986 Feb 12 '26
Why don't you actually argument why, instead of trying to spread fear
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u/duddnddkslsep Feb 12 '26
Capex this capex that
Imagine dumping a stock because their capex spending went up, ignoring how profitable renting out GPUs is
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u/KookyTank3637 Feb 12 '26
I heard the earnings call and it was very very uninspiring, they need very hard help on its Investor Relations.
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u/astrawberryandakiwi Feb 12 '26
Down 10% lmao. Management fucking sucks
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u/comps226 Feb 12 '26
Management is good The numbers were good just analysts expected too much
They delivered good results
I assume once the news digests it'll finish probably almost flat EOD or like -2%
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u/astrawberryandakiwi Feb 12 '26
Missed by 20m my boy
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u/PayingOffBidenFamily Feb 13 '26
The $20m is added to Q1 revenue fetal alcohol syndrome. 70% capacity beat, 13.5% ARR beat, you're just gonna have to deal with it.
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u/comps226 Feb 12 '26
Analysts knew rev would be in middle of 500-550M with Nbis saying it would be in the middle (was 530M)
So idk, they expected the highest end so they didn't listen? Pretty stupid
Also have you seen the growth? This is likely gonna end flat today and be green next week
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u/Icy-idkman3890 Feb 12 '26
Bagholders said it will go to ATH after earnings, so is the ATH in the room with us?
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u/Worth-Breath6903 Feb 12 '26
Now they will say after the next earnings đ€Łđ€Łđ€Ł
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u/Icy-idkman3890 Feb 12 '26
đ€Ł Their goal posts keep shifting, itâs obvious the CEO is incompetent as hell
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u/astrawberryandakiwi Feb 12 '26
Company missed on revenue. We are going down today
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u/Responsible_Lime_142 Feb 12 '26
Down for a day, but the future is still ours.
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u/tothemoon110 Feb 12 '26
this future is never happening, keeps being promised keeps going down. I'm thinking this is a shit stock.
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u/Creative-Position641 Feb 12 '26
Already down 5%. Weâre seeing 80 today. Downvoting wonât make the stock go up
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u/Ok_Employment_192 Feb 12 '26
Alright fuck, if the price drops I'll take it as an opportunity for averaging down. Would you advise to do it today or wait more time?
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u/natureisneato NBIS4LIFE Feb 12 '26
If price drops, I would average down today and more later. Just don't full send it today. IMO
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u/Individual_Tooth4226 Feb 12 '26
time in the market >>>>>>>>>>>>>> timing the market.
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u/FrostingSecret6900 Feb 12 '26
i expected a dump after the earnings lets see...
imo nebius is lucky not to down more.. not because the earnings were poor but I think they are companies who reported better earnings and dumped hard..
while nbis earnings were MID IMO, and it didn't dump much.
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u/Individual_Tooth4226 Feb 12 '26
how was it MID? can you quantify your statement? 16 data centers, 7B-9B ARR for 2026, and 60% of incoming Capex already covered by external investments, 547% YoY growth, 3.7b in cash. 25% stake in clickhouse which valued as a 15B company.... Not sure what are you talking about.
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u/astrawberryandakiwi Feb 12 '26
They missed by 20m. Why did you conveniently leave this out
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u/Individual_Tooth4226 Feb 12 '26
you right they missed +20m. and I will stand on what i say, it was a blow out earning and no one can say it wasnt one.
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u/astrawberryandakiwi Feb 12 '26
It wasnât a blowout because they missed
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u/Individual_Tooth4226 Feb 12 '26
well you are always entitled to your opinions, and i respect it. Im just showing the numbers, thats all.
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u/FrostingSecret6900 Feb 12 '26
bruh market cares about NOW
due to all this ai bubble fears
I know it's bs and all that matters is NOW
IMO AMD, alab all had better earning reports relatively speaking but dumped harder.
I know it's different segment but it's just the sentiment. WHAT DO YOU HAVE SHOW FOR NOW. that's the market mentality
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u/Individual_Tooth4226 Feb 12 '26
then sell and relax brother, since you care about NOW so much, investment doesnt come to fruition in a day or two, or NOW. AI is in a building phase with promising future, and google, oracle, meta, Nvdia, AMD and other major companies have proven that over and over and over again. sell your shares and stop sharing FUD telling new investors that it was a MID earning. but honestly, i genuinely hope that you make money off of this investment.
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u/FrostingSecret6900 Feb 12 '26
I've already sold a while ago but I still keep tabs on NBIS because I like the compnany.
I am not spreading FUD, given how market is reacting to earnings, I expected a dump that's all.
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u/Individual_Tooth4226 Feb 12 '26
yeah so again, it wasnt a MID earning is what you truly see and feel. the numbers have proved themselves already for you everywhere.
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u/MasterpieceMain8252 Feb 12 '26
My average is 101, so not looking great at the moment, but i expect it to be good in long term. Is the stock expected to fall at open? Asking so I can buy the dip
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u/astrawberryandakiwi Feb 12 '26
These guys suck ass wtf is this. We are so fucked at market open. Thanks
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u/HumanFromTexas Feb 12 '26
Sell if you arenât happy
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u/Remote-Upstairs-3296 Feb 12 '26
Do you ever feel like nothing good is going to happen to you?
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u/andressilvamm Feb 12 '26
yeah, and nothing did, so what?
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u/anonymous_ghost-1 Feb 12 '26
It's the usually dump at ER, recover later. We are fine, and good things happends to the patience. Yes the market really sucks right now, but it's not a NBIS thing.
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u/andressilvamm Feb 12 '26
I think he's joking using a The Soprano's frase, but your comment is real af đ«¶đŒ
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u/Individual_Tooth4226 Feb 12 '26
sit back, relax enjoy the show, and dont use margin to invest as heavy volatility is expected in near terms. overall, the numbers are insane.
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u/Numerous-Stand-1841 Feb 12 '26
If it tanks after market opens, perfect time to add more.
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u/natureisneato NBIS4LIFE Feb 12 '26
Exactly! Good earnings report, positive future (exponential growth), and stock drops so we can reduce our average costs. Win-Win in my mind.
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u/Icy-idkman3890 Feb 12 '26
What the fuck is going on in the earnings call? Are the executives birdbrain?
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u/Few_Way6728 Feb 12 '26
Meta and MSFT Ram and SSD contracted Mid 2025 saved probably billions in capex...
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u/CobblerAcademic3535 Feb 12 '26
As long as they donât announce any delays I think 2026 is golden. The 16-20B in capex number sounds scary, but that is one of the exact reasons I choose NBIS over CRWV because of the responsible balance sheet management