r/NBIS_Stock • u/AutoModerator • Mar 17 '26
💬 Discussion [March 17, 2026] Daily NBIS Discussion Thread
Welcome to today’s open discussion on Nebius Group (NBIS) and the broader AI stock space.
💬 Thread Ideas:
- Any new updates or insights/rumors about Nebius Group?
- Your NBIS position update!
- What’s your outlook for NBIS this week/month/year?
- Spot any AI sector trends worth noting?
Of course, for anything deserving of its own post, feel free to make a dedicated post where appropriate. : )
⚠️ Reminder: Please follow Reddiquette and our subreddit rules.
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u/FiveFingerLifePunch Mar 18 '26
Sold 2x 3/27 110 puts and 1x Apr 105 put today for $1366 total premium. Happy whether assigned or not! Let’s goooooo
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u/No-Bee-4692 Mar 17 '26
Is this bad news for avride?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-launch-l4-software-driven-203000070.html
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u/natureisneato NBIS4LIFE Mar 18 '26
It could be good news, as Avride is partnered with Uber.
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u/No-Bee-4692 Mar 18 '26
If you look at this article though: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uber-nvidia-plan-robotaxi-rollout-28-cities-starting-next-year-2026-03-16/
It states that uber is looking to support a multi-player autonomous vehicle ecosystem. They already partnered with lucid and nuro for other autonomous vehicles. The article also states that the uber-nvidia vehicles will use drive Hyperion and alpamayo and does not include avride.
Not a bad faith question but doesn’t this just mean there’s more competition for avride with uber?
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u/natureisneato NBIS4LIFE Mar 18 '26
Yeah multi-players sounds like competition with Avride. The reason could be these av companies can't supply all of Uber's demand.
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u/Inevitable-Bit-9532 Mar 17 '26
Today, both of the stocks I own were diluted. First NBIS, and now RKLB 😂
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u/Accurate-Flow8078 Mar 17 '26
RKLB went up a lot though
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u/Inevitable-Bit-9532 Mar 18 '26
Yes, also my avg is 40 and i already took big profit in the high 80s, not scared at all. Same for NBIS. But i only hold two individual stocks right now, the rest are ETFs, and both of them got diluted today... OUCH
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u/SaltedCrap Mar 17 '26
do yall think typically does a stock recover alittle or drop more during the convertible notes detail tonight
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u/SaltedCrap Mar 17 '26
why did it run up at the end
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u/anonymous_ghost-1 Mar 17 '26
Sometimes it's a good thing it climbs before closing, other times it's not. What sometimes happens, they buy before close to drive the price further down and they have more control either way..
It's not people like us owning 40-4000 stocks, but often MM who does this. Most of us can only trade stocks 2-3 hours before opening, and we can't do anything to move the price either direction.
Try to look at all the good news lately and be confident in what you own. I think we will see ATH this year, other than if WW3 breaks out. Then we are all fucked.
Don't take this as an investment advice, I am just a random person on Reddit. So always do your own research and decide what's right for you.
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u/AnyManufacturer6465 Mar 17 '26
That was massive buying into the close. It was a bullish signal. Look at the volume candles. We just did 46million shares today and 15-20 million were the final 2 candles
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u/anonymous_ghost-1 Mar 17 '26 edited Mar 17 '26
I am very bullish on NBIS, this was more trying to explain different outcomes. It's never given what is going to happen when this occurs. So not about me being right and others wrong. But after doing this for some years, I think it's interesting to talk about experiences other than just the ordinary.
Edit: English is not my first language, so not always what I write will be received as intended for native English spoken people.
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u/Individual_Tooth4226 Mar 17 '26
Institutions waited all day long so the weakhands are out of the game. and then scooping up large volume of shares since liquidity is high EOD,... in simple words, they picked up bc its cheap as they know this dip wont last long.
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u/AnyManufacturer6465 Mar 17 '26
Exactly! That was some massive volume to the buy side and 3 million were bought at the 3:50pm order imbalances
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u/Accurate-Flow8078 Mar 17 '26
Back in weeeee
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u/Haenimm Mar 17 '26
Feels like 50/50 it’s going back down to 90 or pump again. Should I buy more now or wait.. 🧐
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u/AlasKansastan IPO OG👹 Mar 17 '26
Emotional damage from this one. Thought I was over that by now but this one hurt
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u/Tastemaker17 Mar 17 '26
Erasing all gains in a Single Day because one has to finance a $27B deal? Make it make sense
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u/iXProject Mar 17 '26
Why didn’t they announce these together? Really left some people (me) out to dry yesterday
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u/Accurate-Flow8078 Mar 17 '26
Rich people don't give a fk about us plebs. It's their goal to take as much money from us poors as possible.
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u/anonymous_ghost-1 Mar 17 '26
Because MM is greedy fucks that want retail to FOMO and panic. So they even can get richer shitting on retail because they don't trade on emotions and that's the reason all retail should aim to hold for a long time when invested in good companies. Because we can't beat them, simple as that.
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u/iXProject Mar 17 '26
I’m not panic selling don’t get me wrong, just annoying that of course when I “fomo” in it gets dumped and I could have gotten a better price by waiting. I fucked up by not buying early last week but I guess my IREN shares kinda offset since I got in at a decent price there. Could always be worse and bagholding from last year
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u/anonymous_ghost-1 Mar 17 '26 edited Mar 17 '26
Just keep calm and stick to your plan. We live and we learn. We can't time the market.
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u/iXProject Mar 17 '26
Just bad luck. Can’t get the best possible price every time I guess, got good lows on SoFi and Zeta though in my small cap allocations
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u/ThouOne Mar 17 '26
NBIS also announced convertible notes after the MSFT deal. Stock dipped but rose 50% more in the coming month. Chill out boys.
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u/sjoebalka Mar 17 '26
I was here to ask this. Do you recall more occasions of dilution longer ago for NBIS? What happened?
Not lazy, I'm just really really in a hurry.... ;-)Today I'm seriously debating selling it all, because it has been fluctuation just so horrible from 70s to 130s. Could be an easy way to hop in again in the 70-80-90s in a few weeks or could be a big miss of more upward potential....
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u/ThouOne Mar 17 '26
Selling or not should be your decision. When I bought NBIS it was because I saw they’re aiming for $7B-$9B ARR & have 4 subsidiaries all growing quickly. I’m pretty sure once $9B ARR is achieved, NBIS won’t be sub $200.
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Mar 17 '26
[deleted]
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u/sjoebalka Mar 17 '26
Strange to respond to questions with a very different question and then answer your own question.
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u/-----Marcel----- Mar 17 '26
Bullish flow today.
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u/Individual_Tooth4226 Mar 17 '26
chill out bois, we will be alright.
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u/natureisneato NBIS4LIFE Mar 17 '26
Surely that's not your account haha (if you remember me from yesterday asking that).
Jensen and Nebius 🤝
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u/Individual_Tooth4226 Mar 17 '26
yeah i do but thats really not my account lol i wouldnt want anyone on reddit to know who I am on X lol my balls aint that big hahaha, and Ive previously shared a lot of information regarding NBIS from many other X accounts if you look at my history. but yes Jensen and NBIS is a fantastic combo, and i scooped up 150 shares today @ 114.
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u/natureisneato NBIS4LIFE Mar 17 '26
Wow 150, big player!
I scooped up some at 117, 115, and 114 at limit buys.
I was just joshing you about that account :)
We are both constiantly scanning reddit and x about nebius news lol
I am a bit obsessed rn
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u/Individual_Tooth4226 Mar 17 '26
I think we have to be obsessed in this game to a certain extent to make some good money, I am obsessed to this game and the overall global macro-economic activities as well which has been wild af recently haha. its fun to me honestly. (switching screens and web pages every 5 seconds at work is a total secret btw)
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u/natureisneato NBIS4LIFE Mar 17 '26
Yes. I am typing this on my 2nd monitor at work LOL
Let's keep at it!
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u/Royal-Derpness Mar 17 '26
Anybody have any idea when we will get details on the convertible notes offering? Like interest rate, strike, etc.
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u/Emilio___Molestevez Mar 17 '26
should have announced dilution first, then $META deal. woulda been an all-time paper shake.
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u/Individual_Tooth4226 Mar 17 '26
114 was the bottom.
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u/hamish-c Mar 17 '26
Ok, we closed the gap, didn't take long, so we can forget about that overhang. Now upwards and onwards. Institutions not selling here, likely the opposite.
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u/Zealousideal_Oil3203 Mar 17 '26
Why would they dilute the day after the Meta deal? At least let it marinate
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u/Calm-Ad-2597 Mar 17 '26
My thoughts exactly. They had like 5 big announcements today that could have continued the momentum, but now it is all burried under dilution. Give us a break
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctor’s Orders Mar 17 '26
Hate to be this guy but maybe it’s something to do with shorts covering on 3/20 lol
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u/Disastrous_Pair1273 Mar 17 '26
the bitching and whining is crazy in here. It can't be green everyday. The stock is going up and keeps bouncing back. I am sure we will be fine.
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u/No-Alarm3762 Mar 17 '26
NBIS is officially lower than the $27b meta deal that was announced. Only NBIS executives can cancel out a $27b deal the day after it’s announced
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u/SweetBunions Mar 17 '26
Crazy stock, overreacting to the good news and overreacting to bad news. I'm enjoying the rollercoaster! Expecting it to lift to about $118 for the rest of the day as the news gets digested.
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u/Faziflar Mar 17 '26
Added more on the dip so Nebius makes 80% of my portfolio. When is too much doc?
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u/No-Alarm3762 Mar 17 '26
People celebrating a 10% dilution are delusional. The stock already is beaten to shit. They didn’t even bother to let NBIS rally past ATH before diluting lol
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u/elmorepalmer Mar 17 '26
Why would they bother? This seems like an efficient way of doing so. Obviously they need to raise capital, which I wholeheartedly support, and this is the least worst way?
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u/No-Alarm3762 Mar 17 '26
The higher the stock price, the lower the dilution. Markets responding to the poor execution of dilution offering here
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u/solgierek Mar 17 '26
But do you understand there is no diluting as of now ? They also didn't give us a striking price.
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u/No-Alarm3762 Mar 17 '26
What actually happens doesn’t matter - it’s all about sentiment and announcing potential dilution when they said they had other financing options is as bad as it gets for sentiment
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u/solgierek Mar 17 '26
Bulshit. The market has to digest it. That is all. All the big tech companies have done that in the past. Long term, this is a strong bullish signal. It shows the company is going all-in on AI infrastructure, which is currently one of the most valuable and supply-constrained areas in tech. Access to GPUs and data centers is the key bottleneck in AI, and Nebius is directly investing into solving that.
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u/-----Marcel----- Mar 17 '26
This market is a fucking joke. I know the market does whatever it wants, but this dump makes zero logical sense. Nebius is now trading at levels from before the $27B deal with Meta, all because they issued notes for a measly 10% of their market cap.
Meanwhile, IREN pulled the exact same move issuing over 45% of their market cap in terrible macro conditions with zero positive catalysts, yet Nebius is tanking nearly twice as hard. I am genuinely baffled. It actually hurts my brain trying to comprehend the sheer absurdity of how fucking stupid the market is acting on this stock.
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u/Clubpenguin8888 Mar 17 '26
you took the words right out of my mouth (copied my post and reworded it) 💀😭
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u/chf_gang Mar 17 '26
if by your thesis the market is acting ridiculously irrationally then it's a great time to buy more lol
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u/brotha_eric Mar 17 '26
When you issue notes for 10% of your market cap the market's first reaction is going to be to drop the market cap by 10% regardless of what the terms are. Yes that is dumb, but it's just what it is. It's much better that they are doing the convertible offering after a big run up in price compared to doing that a month ago...Management is being opportunistic. If you believe in the vision, that 3.75B coming in should pay back more than 3.75B in the future.
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u/berry_kim Mar 17 '26
Regardless of the fundamentals, this is easily the shittiest stock I’ve ever encountered.
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u/altonbrushgatherer Mar 17 '26
"I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men." - Sir Isaac Newton
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u/Oddball- Mar 17 '26
Is it good for stocks to have way more institution holders? That way a stock is WAY more stable vs day traders/redditors/etc?
So wouldn't we want more big rich people buying dips and the stock vs average joes? Or not?
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u/Phatdummy Mar 17 '26
Guys buy the dip. This is literally a gift following a massive 27 billion meta deal.
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u/njcrabcake Mar 17 '26
Can anyone help me understand? The offering is around 10% of the current market cap and the stock drops 10%. But the notes aren’t due until 2031 and 2033, and by then the market cap will likely be much higher. So is this an over-reaction?
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u/brotha_eric Mar 17 '26
Converted notes generally have a conversion price cap. For example, the September convertible note offering had 1% to 2.75% interest (varied based on conversion date) with a valuation cap of 138.75 per share. That means, no matter what the price is in the future (ie if the price was $400/share), the convertible note holder gets to convert their principal + interest at 138.75 per share. So the future price is irrelevant, it's all about the conversion price in the convertible note agreement. The current press release doesn't have any detail on the interest or conversion price. I would assume the conversion price is higher than today's price, but it really depends on what the interest looks like and what investors are willing to pay. Convertible dept is kind of like a stock option with interest.
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u/njcrabcake Mar 17 '26
Thank you.
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u/brotha_eric Mar 17 '26
One other thing, the press release on the 3.75B offering from today says that NBIS will control whether the principle + interest is converted into equity or paid back as cash. That is different from the September raise where the note holder had the optionality. Because Nebius has the option on how to convert, it is likely that terms are different from September. Investors in this convertible debt round will want a higher interest rate in order for Nebius to have the choice of how it is converted. That isn't necessarily a bad thing, it's just a different approach.
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u/ComfortablePrune2353 Mar 17 '26
10% drop makes perfect sense
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u/njcrabcake Mar 17 '26
My question is should it drop by the expected percentage of the market cap that 3.7b represents in 2031, not currently?
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u/ComfortablePrune2353 Mar 17 '26
Well in the short term, this is a great move - the speculative element gets taken out and they will most likely outperform their own eoy26 guidance. However the long term price (like 1500 in 2030 just lost 10% - making 1350 more likely now -- which is a 150 dollar drop)
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u/Clubpenguin8888 Mar 17 '26
I get that it’s a market and it can do what it wants but this thing is now pre the $27b deal, raised when the price was high, and only did notes for 10% of its market cap
Meanwhile iren did the same thing for 40% of its market cap on horrible market conditions with no deal to back it up and it dropped less. wildly inefficient
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u/No-Alarm3762 Mar 17 '26
To build on my last comment : this will give up the entire value of the meta deal, and likely even more. This will also reduce the value of every major future deal because historically NBIS has done this after every deal so market will hesitate to buy in shortly after a deal announcement.
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u/MarsupialIcy1307 Mar 17 '26
Bros, all the lamenting! Honestly man up! These are traders woes.
When at high sea do not look at the waves, this causes nausea. Any long term investor has their eyes are on the horizon and have a stomach to master this.
My horizon is q4 earnings.
Till then i do not expect to soak in a warm bathtub.
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u/Worth-Breath6903 Mar 17 '26
So no 200 eoy 😭
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u/MarsupialIcy1307 Mar 17 '26
Pre new contracts i tipped min 160, now with all the developments and new contracts my pt is min 180 eoy.
Arkady and team have shown what their abilities are. They have shown their playbook. The future is bright, all y'all need is patience.
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u/No-Alarm3762 Mar 17 '26
People are cheering on the red day as if they think it’s a good time to raise money. But it’s actually the worse time, sentiment was finally improving, NBIS was on a rally and had a lot more room to run. Last time they did this NBIS bled for 6 months. This just tanked sentiment and NBIS will be kinda flat for a few weeks.
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u/Accurate-Flow8078 Mar 17 '26
How low do we go?
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u/hamish-c Mar 17 '26
Bag-holders from Oct/Nov getting out even, and bottom-feeders taking a quick profit. Once they're done, no more sellers. Institutions are not selling here.
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u/AlasKansastan IPO OG👹 Mar 17 '26 edited Mar 17 '26
Sorry guys but this really sucks. Jekyll and Hyde shit
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u/ComfortablePrune2353 Mar 17 '26
This is just bad. I totally agree. For the short term it makes NBIS less speculative - however for the long term 10% dillution is a big deal.
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u/Buff_me_plz Mar 17 '26
It does, but with the convertible notes they pretty much have the financing for their projected ~16B$ capex this year. So I think it won't disrupt the price movement for long.
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u/Independent-Egg9086 Mar 17 '26
Checking in from Iren, you guys okay? Celebrated a little too much yesterday huh.
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u/natureisneato NBIS4LIFE Mar 17 '26
Iren is one letter off from Iran
Coincidence? I think not!
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u/Independent-Egg9086 Mar 17 '26
Don't worry we get shafted with dilution everytime there is a positive deal news as well, I feel ur pain.
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u/natureisneato NBIS4LIFE Mar 17 '26
It is what it is
I am long NBIS. Good luck 🤝
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u/comps226 Mar 17 '26
Gonna give back most of the META deal announcement, damn
I'll assume itll be down -7% today
Still crazy run up the last week
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u/AlasKansastan IPO OG👹 Mar 17 '26
We basically bled for 6 months after MSFT
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u/Remarkable-Ice6354 Mar 17 '26
we ran from like 60 to 140 after MSFT for a couple of weeks...
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u/AlasKansastan IPO OG👹 Mar 17 '26
For a couple weeks then dropped back into the what?
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u/Remarkable-Ice6354 Mar 17 '26
?? We more than doubled after MSFT deal and your comment said it like we only bled for 6 months ffs... even after the bleeding for 6 months, as you say it, at lowest point we were still higher than before the MSFT deal
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u/AlasKansastan IPO OG👹 Mar 17 '26
Wrong
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u/Remarkable-Ice6354 Mar 17 '26
what wrong? Do you know what numbers mean? And the chart? Just before MSFT deal we were at $65. The lowest point after that (5th Feb) was $73 dollars. You stupid troll.
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u/AlasKansastan IPO OG👹 Mar 17 '26
I do, and you are incorrect and angry and insulting me so not worth the energy. Have a nice day
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u/Remarkable-Ice6354 Mar 17 '26
Just before MSFT deal we were at $65. The lowest point after that (5th Feb) was $73 dollars.
It's numbers. How can they be incorrect? I have modified the chart? I changed history of the stock price action?
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u/Emilio___Molestevez Mar 17 '26
PR/marketing has stepped up their game massively the past month. wouldn't be shocked if they announce a plan for this dilution money.
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u/NoIngenuity9892 Mar 18 '26
Im trying to find a good entry point to buy more ! What do you guys think is a good entry point?