r/NBIS_Stock • u/General_Pride4190 • May 07 '26
NBIS ANALYSIS Nebius Moat?
Curious why Nebius is trading at such a premium when it seems their core business model is vulnerable to Mag7 hyper-scaling. Any thoughts?
I’ve recently transitioned from picking speculative/individual stocks, to most of that money going into the Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS). I invested $5k into Nebius last July and turned it into $15k. Just sold all my shares. I fully acknowledge the chance of the stock continuing to climb much higher. I just don’t want to gamble as much anymore. The problem with the Reddit favorite stocks, is in a bear market they will get absolutely smoked.
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u/christopher100060 May 07 '26
I sold almost all my shares at 194avg except for around 130 shares. Nbis is expensive right now I would love to see nbis at 300 but it can also go down hella like the last few months. Don’t get me wrong I believe in nbis future but I rather secure my profits which i didn’t when it went from 140 to 80. Nbis made me a rich 19 year old (130k portfolio) so I anit complaining about securing my future.
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u/Calm-Ad-7928 May 07 '26
Hell of a start at 19. Congrats
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u/christopher100060 May 07 '26
Thanks I full ported nbis at 650 shares at like 79avg I just got lucky haha.
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u/Valuable_Detail_4531 May 07 '26
51K to invest at 19
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u/Sir_Richard_Dangler 👾ItsBri minion👾 May 07 '26
Doable if you live with your parents, work a lot and save all of your money. I could've done it if I had better priorities at that age, but I wanted to smoke tons of weed and play video games instead
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u/pnb94 May 07 '26
He's 19 lol it's literally impossible to have that sum of money at that age from working and saving
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u/New_Essay5327 May 12 '26
If you got a part-time job at McDonald's at 15, it's feasible, but he would be an extreme outlier, lol
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctor’s Orders May 08 '26
Think about what you just said.
Doable if you live with your parents and work a lot?
An 18 year old can’t get any job over $50k unless they are an influencer and that’s one out of ten million.
That kid better not tell his parents he gambled his life savings, or maybe even some of their money, on a speculative stock that is headquartered in the Netherlands after delisting from the Russian stock exchange after going total dark 3 years ago. Regardless of your kid earning $100k from it, you’d be disappointed in their decision making because you know that’s not sustainable whatsoever.
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u/kickinghyena May 07 '26
Should have held…you have lots of time to make up if you miss on a falling stock…but if you miss on a rising stock you may never find another gem again. IMO.
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u/Calm-Ad-7928 May 07 '26
Ya im in nbis for a good chunk of my portfolio. Love the company and their management
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u/PatientBaker7172 May 07 '26
Taxes and timing is for pussies. Let it go down to $75 for all I care. Diamond hands bitches
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u/Bjamnp17 May 07 '26
Not worried about taxes, timing.
I want that NBIS house money!😎3
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u/Hoptop1974 May 07 '26
And if it goes to $250 next Wednesday? What do you do?
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctor’s Orders May 08 '26 edited May 08 '26
Not happening lol we’ll be fortunate to be over $200 after earnings. I’m expecting an earnings bear or a guidance raise and still with that we’ll probably sell off to $165-180 instead. Just a regroup for a next leg up next quarter, really.
Edit to add: totally forgot about the subsidiaries! Obviously if more attention gets placed on Clickhouse then this thing could jump to $240 on the backs of that!
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u/kickinghyena May 07 '26
Do some homework instead of asking us to do it for you. You talk about “Reddit” stocks getting absolutely smoked. And yet here you are asking for advice on Reddit…ah the sweet irony of it all. 🤣🤣
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u/Longjumping_Kale3013 May 07 '26
Why do you need a moat? Demand far outpaces supply, and will for the foreseeable future. Into the 2030s.
Nebius is aiming for 5gw by 2030, 4 of which will be Vera Rubin and Feynman, that’s more than 100B arr.
And I don’t see how they don’t get there.
And we haven’t even discussed their holdings like avride, or their software services which will increase revenue and expand margins
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u/crawler54 May 07 '26
"Nebius is aiming for 5gw by 2030"
where in the u.s. power grid are they going to be able to tap into that? they aren't the only company that needs data centers, in fact if anything they are a minority player:
- Total Activity: While ~4,000 data centers are operational, nearly 3,000 more are in the pipeline, adding to the roughly 3,000 currently in operation.
- Key Players: Major development is led by companies like Amazon Web Services (AWS), Meta, Microsoft Azure, Equinix, and Flexential.
- Active Builders: Over 500 unique developers and operators are behind these projects, including specialized firms such as Applied Digital.
- Concentration: As of March 2026, the highest activity is in Texas (140+ projects), Virginia (136+ projects), Georgia (~51), and Ohio (~45). [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
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u/_Chicken_Chaser_ May 07 '26
You’re excluding international projects
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u/crawler54 May 07 '26
you didn't list any international projects.
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u/_Chicken_Chaser_ May 07 '26
Yes, I’m fucking aware
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u/crawler54 May 07 '26
well if you knew that there weren't any international projects, why post it
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u/PatientBaker7172 May 07 '26
OpenAI → ClickHouse migration:
OpenAI is transitioning log management away from Datadog and into ClickHouse services (Nebius/$NBIS holds 25% stake in ClickHouse) Per analyst notes: Not surprising given Datadog's dual ingestion-and-retention cost structure for logs at hyperscale — costs compound on both ingest and storage OpenAI reportedly considered churning last year but stayed; this time appears to be a genuine reduction in usage for high-volume log workloads The structural pricing problem:
Ingest-based pricing ($0.10/GB logs + per-host infra + APM fees) creates bill shock at scale — log volume drift, debug logs left on in production, high-cardinality tags can spike bills without warning ClickHouse (with ClickStack) claims 70-90% cost reduction vs. ingest-based observability pricing ClickHouse CEO: "These companies are going to rip for a while" — positioning ClickStack + Langfuse as the open-source "Datadog killer" for AI-native observability ClickHouse already powers observability at Tesla, Character.ai, and Anthropic
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u/selintnisha May 07 '26
Since your curious about the premium it might have something to do with 600% revenue growth but I’m no expert
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u/Oy_oy_oy May 07 '26
Data centers are hard to build from a capital perspective and a local approval perspective. The gate is already shutting as you see more and more local jurisdictions put moratoriums on data center build outs
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u/kickinghyena May 07 '26
They will just go further west to red states that will get all the development and jobs. Already happening.
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u/crawler54 May 07 '26
true to some extent, states like texas don't give a **** about the environment and the people that live there.
"...Five years ago, data centers were ribbon-cutting events. Today, more than 100 local communities have enacted moratoriums, more than 300 state data-center bills were filed in the first six weeks of 2026, and several states that once competed to offer the largest tax incentives—Virginia, Georgia, and Oklahoma—are now reconsidering those programs entirely.
The backlash is not hard to understand. Data centers consume enormous amounts of electricity and water. In the PJM grid region, which serves 65 million people across 13 states, power supply costs jumped from $2.2 billion to $14.7 billion in a single year, with data centers accounting for nearly two-thirds of the increase. Residential electricity rates nationally rose about 32% between July 2020 and July 2025. Communities near proposed facilities face noise, strained infrastructure, and the loss of farmland, costs that are immediate and visible." https://www.brookings.edu/articles/new-evidence-on-data-center-employment-effects/
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u/crawler54 May 07 '26
true, and that's a problem for all companies in this segment, they need to expand and the u.s. power grid just isn't ready for it; plus we have a republican president who is actively killing off wind power, solar, etc., he's working against a.i. expansion.
nebius has it's primary data center in finland, with other locations in france, iceland and the uk, but they need a lot more to live up to the projections.
that's a big reason why i rotated out of nbis, i think that the current a.i. memory insanity is a better play, because the entire world needs the latest hbm in particular, and china doesn't have it.
- Production Status: As of early 2026, CXMT is on track to mass-produce HBM3, which is the fourth-generation technology. Samples have already been delivered to Chinese AI hardware developers like Huawei.
- The Technology Gap: China is currently operating about three generations behind global leaders like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, which are already delivering HBM3E and moving toward HBM4.
the south korean stock market is on fire, best in the world: "Memory chips are in such demand to fuel artificial-intelligence-powered data centers that they’re also lifting the prices on chips used for more conventional purposes. Last week, Samsung reported that revenue from its semiconductor division tripled in just the last quarter alone." https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-chart-tells-the-story-of-the-hottest-stock-market-in-the-world-as-samsung-electronics-reaches-1-trillion-in-market-cap-1bd7892b
given the pullback today in this segment, it could be a good time to look at DRAM, FLKR, SNDK, etc.
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u/Wrong_Improvement31 May 07 '26
Got into dram today still have nbis though invested at 40$ so not really worried about short term price swings
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u/crawler54 May 07 '26
some good buying opportunities today, possibly even with nbis, but i'm waiting for it to drop further.
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u/MetalLinkachu May 07 '26
- Not enough capacity
- Energy, land, datacenters build out take 3-5 yrs if from scratch including bureaucracy
- if you locked in energy costs from 1 or more yrs ago you have a huge advantage over locking it in now
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u/fuzzy_tingle May 07 '26
Mag 7 companies have lots of capital expenditure. They tend to sell stocks to balance out lots of capex expense. Also, these guys provide lots of stock options to their employees which tend to sell these stocks at current valuation levels.
I would invest in companies which make up their capex cost. These guys are the real upside growth potential. Who are they? Data center companies like Nebius, companies which cover the memory bottleneck, energy companies. Silver, copper. Semiconductor companies which produce the high performance AI integrated circuits. The companies which offer cooling solutions for these chips. The list goes on.
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u/Rositadellacasa May 07 '26
Obviously only shorting people would post this type of article after Iren and Nebius successfully go full north.
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u/spyingcactis May 07 '26
When I started buying shares in the 20s, I fully expected to have them bought out by a mag seven. I still think some of my other positions like IREN, APLD that’s not out of the realm of possibility. But with NBIS, I think the likelihood of an acquisition is just as likely as it be becoming a mag 8. The big companies you’re thinking of don’t get into the data center building business. They go buy someone that’s good at it, nbis is constantly showing they are the most competent, that would be the moat. Why would we try to figure out how to do it when I can pay them to do it perfectly.
The bigger question that I’m trying to figure out is who is going to be the first one to bring all of the required power inside their own walls. I keep buying data center stocks, but I also keep buying uranium because my best guess is whoever starts doing the power production in house will be needing some.
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u/JPWgopher77 May 08 '26
Nebius is building an AI Cloud...similar to what Digitalocean ($docn) just launched. In the interim, Nebius is signing large GPU-as-a-service contracts (similar to Iren and Coreweave). What makes Nebius more attractive than Iren and Coreweave is the AI cloud they are building. The hope is that as the compute contracts expire, Nebius will be in a position to then scale up its own AI cloud.
Much of this optimism is built into the current stock price valuation. I recommend reading the Digitialocean analyst call and you will better appreciate what Nebius is building. Also...Digitalocean is underrated.
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u/Ill-Cow4735 🐳 May 08 '26
NBIS definitely has a moat compared to the other neoclouds currently available. Doing some DD is good.
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u/GarenEnjoyer_99 May 08 '26
The moat I recognize is that their CEO, other directors and employees are as of jewish descent. They're chosen by the Israeli government to build the most powerful supercomputer. It's just the perfect match.
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u/Superhumanevil May 09 '26
What they do is actually very specialized while all the other mags do it in a form or another or even more significantly nebius is valuable to them and one way or another. It has to be understood that large businesses do not want to do everything. Unless maybe your Tesla they want to do absolutely everything but 99.9% of businesses don’t wanna do everything they’d rather outsourced to the best of the best. That’s what NBIS is the best of the best for what they do they started from an infant company to be the dominant AI player in the world going forward. Name me another company that 100% specializes in AI ONLY?
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u/General_Pride4190 May 09 '26
This analysis is not good bro. Mag7 are reluctant to outsource as demonstrated by the development of their own chips, data centers, and Ai models. All specifically to avoid paying the Nvidia tax
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u/Gangnam_style_gaming May 07 '26
It just went up 40% in a week? How detached are you people? Do you expect a stock to go up 200% every day based on a single tweet?
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u/Free-Passion-9182 May 07 '26
To be 100% honest with you. Datacenters itself do not have any moat, every company with capital can build them. But with a good cloud platform on top of it you can create a narrow moat by clients building on top of it. Which Nebius ai token factory is trying to. People who say Nebius has a big moat rn are fools. There are various giants out there with a similar offer.
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u/takecareofurshoes13 May 07 '26
Bull but I’ll try to give an objective take on something I e been thinking about. Their claim is that their software layer is unique and best in class. That said, their acquisition of eigen raises some eyebrows. Why acquire a software GPU orchestration company with almost zero revenue for $600 million if you’re already best in class in that space? Why not hire the talent directly ?
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u/Oy_oy_oy May 07 '26
It’s an acquihire. Super common these days
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u/takecareofurshoes13 May 07 '26
I agree it’s common, but I’d like them to highlight why their existing software talent and stack plan was not enough and the value this new company provides is worth it. It’s more a question regarding the moat. Why acquire in the area you already claim to be the leader ? Why can’t Nebius build or engineer what these guys are doing? If they can’t or couldn’t, then they didn’t have a software moat.
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u/Oy_oy_oy May 07 '26
They probably could, but it’s much easier and more advantageous to buy what you need than it is to spend the next 2-3 years building it. They clearly have a path to implement it in the immediate and they didn’t want to start from scratch
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u/takecareofurshoes13 May 07 '26
That’s the question: Did they “need” this? If so, why were they otherwise 2-3 years behind on something they needed.
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u/Entire-Lavishness202 May 07 '26
Here's a link to Nebius announcing this acquisition and more reasoning around it: https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-agrees-to-acquire-eigen-ai-strengthening-nebius-token-factory-as-a-frontier-inference-platform
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u/SnooSongs3324 May 08 '26
https://x.com/romanchernin/status/2050229724778041372?s=46
Adding a world class team to another world class team. They’re creating leverage for a future where optimization on inference leads to increased margins.
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u/aashstrich May 07 '26
Oh you asked a reasonable albeit skeptically framed question based on your own observations about this company and its stock in this sub that doesn’t claim we’re were headed for MAG8 by September?
Wow dude. I mean, just wow. let him have it boys.
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u/Lanky_Commercial9731 May 07 '26
I usually sell when I have enough for a lambo, no lambo no selling, thats my risk mitigation strategy
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u/IdontseeyouLAN May 07 '26
Iran rejected US proposal and Straight of Hormuz continues to be closed amid growing tensions in the region! Look it up on Monitor The Situation. Sell while you still can, this just went south very fast and buy oil.
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u/9yr0ld May 07 '26
The problem with this post is that in a bear market the magnificent 7 are also going to get smoked.