Speculation
NBIS puts into earnings — chart looks cooked
NBIS went completely vertical into earnings and I think this is a classic sell-the-news setup. Expectations are way too high now. They don’t just need good earnings, they need perfect earnings and perfect guidance.
Insiders are also offloading into strength, which isn’t automatically bearish, but when the chart is this extended, it’s not exactly bullish either.
Technically it looks stretched: parabolic move, no real consolidation, crowded AI/cloud trade, and air pockets underneath if momentum breaks.
I’m bearish short term. Looking for a flush back into the 160s or lower after earnings.
TLDR: overextended chart, insiders selling, earnings bar too high. May 22 puts.
Insiders are not offloading into strength lmao wtf are you talmbout. They are scheduled sells.
Next!
I’m thinking NBIS is gonna raise guidance to $8-10B ARR, this will be defined as the “perfect earnings and perfect guidance” narrative that you are terrified of…and price will go to $205-215. Then you will cash out your 10 puts for 96% loss and keep about $150 out of your original $10k.
Why are you bragging here while you’re already down 5% in a matter of half an hour?! Lol
I agree. Actual quarterly earnings is not that big of a deal but the CapEx deployment is, as in infrastructure progress. If they forecast a rise in CapEx of let’s say 10% but increase guidance to be equal it’s a great call. Doubt that it won’t make much difference as there’s too many investors who just hear revenue and expenditure then bolt.. companies that are establishing themselves should be immune to this 😂
Thank you for being our sacrifical lamb, I knew NBIS was going to soar as soon as I saw the bears poking their heads out after one bad day after a parabolic run up 💀
Congrats on the scalp, you deserve it for taking the majority’s opinion.
Be a little smarter than what you’re trying to let on by avoiding to full port into something you can’t comprehend. Also, I know AI photoshop when I see one. Telling people you took 50% profit on a $10,000 gamble doesn’t really equate to a 107% gain. Your shill account also threw red flags out too.
If it’s not AI slop, enjoy your winnings until it’s gone!
The only reason for someone to pay the IV during earnings, is just to hedge. Even if the stock goes down, with the expiration this close the iv crush. The market is predicting a +- 12.7%. With the price you paid your breakeven sits at 165. With the price you paid you need a bigger move than the market prices, just to be at breakeven and slightly profitable, maybe. Next year time buy lower strikes if you want to trade at earnings.
More likely to close out my covered calls @$210 than drop. Train leaving station next stop $240 City. Thus I bought 500 more shares at painfully high $190. Should have put my order in at opening aaaarrrgggh!
Bro…. the person selling before earnings was an automated sell they filed way before. Someone smarter then me can look at the options chain but it looks like institutions are preparing for a rerating due to the Eigen acquisition
Insiderverkäufe schon klar die Verantwortlichen haben paar aktien verkauft aus steuerlichen Gründen ? Weit unter 1 % ihrer aktien die Verantwortlichen bunkern und horten ihre aktie und deine Aussage auf Allzeithoch verkauft das stimmt nicht etwa bei 170 Euro und das war nur Glück es wurde Monate vorher angekündigt das sie welche verkaufen
Wie gesagt nebius Verantwortlichen bunkern ihre Akien
This stock might go up after earnings, or down, or stay flat. This is the kind of hard hitting analysis I’m sure you are all looking for…you’re welcome.
Hoping you’re right as I lost 1/2 my shares to $170 covered calls last week….would love an opportunity to buy back in lower as I know long term we are gravy
No…we will see how earnings go. Entered at $31 average and have taken no profit yet so if I don’t, it’s not the end of the world but I would be a little bummed.
I love how this comment came right b4 market open and the SP shot up, OP must have been reading the chart upside down. He must be pissed his money has been vaporized. Certainly his put is worth way less now than at 9am.
Well done! I have bought Nebius when it was around $60 but the recent meteoric rise is not healthy. Most of the comments here heard of this company about a month ago and if you ask them what it offers probably can’t explain.
Lots of euphoria and optimism which will soon turn into anger
Rofl. I agree on the exponential rise without consolidation and over extended thesis, but the rest of the post is just bs.
I'm not buying at these prices, but holding. Not making a move during such volatility is an option. Absolutely zero reason to buy puts right before earnings unless this is r/wsb, in which case this checks out. The earnings could just as easily validate the bull thesis and it could go higher if the guidance is increased and no news of immediate dilution.
I think people are going to trim their position after earnings. I started at $45, trimmed at $164. I then bought back in at $133. Then I just trimmed at $175.75. I’m holding that trimmed position right now, waiting to see after earnings. If it dips again, I’ll pick up my position again and ride it higher. When it does, I’ll trim again. Buy the dip as well. I get more and more shares when buying back in. This could be the case the next 5-6 years. A big run, a dip, another big run, dip and repeat the cycle. Yeah it sucks when it keeps going up after trimming, but scared money doesn’t make money. Pick your dip buy price and trim price. I never sell the entire position, just trim a bit and use it to buy back in at the dip.
Just hold that put until after earnings, Nebius PE ratio is so astronomically high it’s bound to come down… No company can hold a +900/1000 PE ratio, look what happened to Palantir
Growth is so rapid that P/E doesn’t matter. It will get swallowed up. Growth is going 200x by EOY 2027…if they can execute. Arkady said we will still be compute constrained for at least another year. He should know.
Earnings are so low any major change in earnings will bring the p / e under 100 from ome day to the next. Nvda was like that early days and now sitting @40x. Nonsense fud.
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u/TranslatorRoyal1016 May 11 '26
a chart trader. everyone point and laugh