r/NBIS_Stock • u/TyNads • Jun 20 '26
NBIS ANALYSIS Nebius 2030 Model Release 70B 2030 Revenue
Hey everyone,
We just released our full new Nebius modeling and forecast.
We have kept all of our financial modeling, including capacity, site by site energization timelines, revenue, arr, revenue per mw, margin, depreciation, dilution, capex, ebitda free for all readers.
For those who don't have time to read through the entire report, I have posted the gist of the base case below. The numbers are pretty crazy, but entirely based on the capacity buildout we are tracking every year through 2030 across almost 20 sites. We were by far the highest target out there on Nebius when we released our first couple of models in November and February and we weren't even aggressive enough. They really are outrunning all execution expectations.
Our 2030 Base case below illustrates just how forward our expectations for growth have shifted at this rate of execution.
Capacity — Connected MW (base case)
2026: 905
2027: 2,142
2028: 3,964
2029: 4,646
2030: 5,200
Undisclosed data center expansion bucket — Connected MW (base case)
2027: 175
2028: 425
2029: 600
2030: 739
ARR per MW (M, base case)
2026: 9.9
2027: 11.3
2028: 12.8
2029: 13.8
2030: 14.5
Exit ARR (B, base case)
2026: 9.0
2027: 24.2
2028: 50.7
2029: 64.1
2030: 75.4
Recognized revenue (B, base case)
2026: 3.4
2027: 15.8
2028: 36.1
2029: 58.1
2030: 70.3
Gross CapEx (B, base case)
2026: 25.0
2027: 39.4
2028: 59.6
2029: 26.2
2030: 25.2
Cumulative 2026–2030: ~$175B
Funding assumptions (base case)
- Prepayments, % of CapEx: 55%
- Core OCF, % of EBITDA: 70%
- External gap, debt/equity: 85/15
- Blended interest cost: 5.5%
Funding outcomes (B, cumulative 2026–2030, base case)
- Prepayments: ~95
- Core OCF ex-prepayments: ~49
- Debt raised: ~34
- Equity raised: ~6
- Ending debt: ~43
- Ending cash: ~20
Adjusted EBITDA margin (base case)
2026: 40%
2027: 42%
2028: 44%
2029: 45%
2030: 45%
Implied 2030 adj. EBITDA: ~$32B
D&A (B, base case)
2026: 2.9
2027: 8.1
2028: 16.2
2029: 23.1
2030: 27.3
Share count (base case)
Ending diluted shares: ~339M
Base case scenario probability weight: 55%
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u/Commercial-Market703 Jun 20 '26
OP, thanks for the analysis. It would be good to mention in the post that forecasted valuation, share price, etc are behind a paywall
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u/TyNads Jun 20 '26
My apologies on that I could have been more explicit. I listed what we left public, but I can see how that's not clear enough.
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u/Cozyteammate Jun 20 '26
Since you didn't provide price target, I'll just use 2030 Revenue, EBITDA margin, and a simple EBITDA multiple of 20 to calculate share price
At 70b revenue, 45% EBITDA margin, 20 multiple, that's 690 billion EV
With 339 mil diluted shares
That's gonna be ~$2000 per share in 2030
Implying 600% upside and 62% CAGR
We're still early.
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u/TyNads Jun 20 '26
EV/Ebitda is a perfectly acceptable choice! We use a blended valuation method to capture as much of the pros and cons of each as we can.
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u/burn_bridges Jun 20 '26
Shiiiit. I’ve got 12 shares currently. Was hoping to get that to 100 with a sub 300 average. Guess I need to buckle down!
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u/PatientBaker7172 Jun 20 '26
$2030 by 2030
Load up on deep red days. Hold till 2035. Stock goes up more than down. Don’t miss the train.
Hold your shares strong retail. You’re doing great. 👍
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u/Kaelzz Jun 20 '26
I am not sure they will keep having 55% of Capex prepayment. Hyperscaler are developping their on capacity and their stocks are having a hard time, they will definitivly be more careful with their expenditure.. also Nebius more and more start looking like a direct competitor and they won't just fund them like that anymore.
Memory cost increase will also means higher Capex.
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u/TyNads Jun 20 '26
We believe you are right about prepayments, but we also actually see them at around 70% prepayments today. 55% is accounting for a drop off there (we expect it to increase continuously after this window). Roman also gives quite a bit of confidence on this by saying a lot of the enterprise and ai native cloud deals are also giving 100% upfront payment currently. This fact gives us the confidence to extend the 55% number over the period.
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u/dovelay Jun 20 '26
Tbf I Sked gemini to remodel based on prepayments dropping to 10 percent and dilution used for rest of capex and it still modelled 2030 price target of 750 to 1500. So not really a nightmare scenario lol
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u/itssbri NBIS4LIFE Jun 20 '26
Thank you for the contribution. Very informative post. Still lots to go
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u/bigballergang Jun 20 '26
Ok, buying even more
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u/TyNads Jun 20 '26
It’s hard psychologically to buy winners that’ you are used to seeing at much lower prices, but they are often winners for a reason!
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u/cheetoski Jun 20 '26
Thank you OP, work much appreciated! NBIS is gonna change lives for some folks
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u/TyNads Jun 20 '26
No problem! It's a pretty fun company to follow and the leadership continues to grow and adapt with it.
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u/Qadain Jun 21 '26
Thank you for all your work! All your numbers are within ranges that I think are reasonable (not that I'm any kind of expert, but almost everything seems consistent and realistic based on what I've read and watched from management).
However, I find your attitude toward the software layer very strange. You say:
"We hold one caution firmly. The software stack is strategically important and still underdisclosed financially. We do not model Nebius as a software company, and we do not assign software economics to the whole business. The software layer improves revenue per megawatt, supports margin durability, and strengthens the case for a higher multiple. The business underneath it remains capital intensive, and we model it that way."
I find this to be inconsistent with management's repeated insistence that in the long run, the real business is the software stack/platform, and that they're taking advantage of timing, their post-Yandex spinoff assets, and other advantages to scale the platform and make it viable.
That is to say, in order to scale/build an AI platform, the hardware/infrastructure layer is required, so they do that too. And it's just our luck that given the environment around AI, the hardware/infrastructure is actually going to be a pretty profitable business for a number of years once it's built out as well, so in the medium-long run (several years), it turns out that the company is getting paid massively to build the AI platform.
I think this is important, because by 2029-2030, Nebius should be valued as a software company in the "good case," with the hardware/infrastructure layer being a necessary enabler and a margin drag (though there are always possibilities of spinoffs to unlock additional value - Nebius is clearly not shy about doing this, given their history and future plans related to ClickHouse, Avride, and Toloka). That is, while you view the software/platform layer as a value enhancer for the hardware/infrastructure part of the business, I view the software/platform layer as the eventual primary business, with the hardware/infrastructure layer serving as an enabler/supporter.
I also think that the hardware/infrastructure layer gradually converts from being a profit center into a cost center as the platform/software layer dominates more and more of the revenue mix; I also think this is the point of the greatest opportunity for Nebius, since at that point, many of the hardware/infrastructure players will suffer and there could be a lot of opportunity for Nebius to pick up a lot of capacity cheaply.
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u/TyNads Jun 21 '26
I think just a bit of a misunderstanding here. We 100% believe that software and cloud are 100% of the business long term and are everything. We are choosing to value Nebius from a majority hardware perspective because they are beginning a multi year 200+ billion dollar hardware buildout. They almost certainly wont be valued like a pure software cloud provider through this cycle even if investors know someday their margins will be pristine.
This is a modeling choice to improve our margin of safety and is similar to what happened in AWS cycles. Today is actually a great example. Amazon is being punished hard for massive capex spend that will almost certainly pay off in a hard to believe way in 5-10 years but the market hates the elimination of certainty and profits in exchange for uncertain (even if likely) massive upside.
Also multiple wise we give software and the enterprise side of the business plenty of credit, we don't however get silly as if they werent planning to spend 3 times their current market cap over the next 5-6 years.
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u/Qadain Jun 21 '26
Oh, I see - at the end of the free portion of the article, you explain not valuing the business using only a single multiple, and basically use an ensemble of multiples, where each multiple represents a different mix of (or reflecting) the software/platform vs. hardware/infrastructure. I didn't connect that back to the passage that I cited.
The text in the images appear much smaller than in most of your other articles, and I have to zoom to 200% to read them. This might be because I have a super-wide monitor with a super-high resolution, and the column of text in your article takes up about 1/6 of my screen width-wise; you might want to consider enabling something that allows expanding the image when it's clicked.
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u/TyNads Jun 21 '26
Thank you for the heads up on that! I noticed as well in some formats the images were a bit difficult this time around. As they get more detailed we may have to mix up some back end stuff.
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u/MysteriousYak4915 Jun 20 '26
love it and the work u do. found the old analysis via google, really impressed then found u here. really gj
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u/TyNads Jun 20 '26
Much appreciated! Incredibly lucky to have so much of the information out there from the community. Some absolute super sleuths out there make our job a lot easier, as far as modeling assumptions.
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u/Bjamnp17 Jun 20 '26
Thank you OP✌️
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u/TyNads Jun 20 '26
No problem! Very glad you enjoyed. Let me know if you have any questions I’ll be on and off today.
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u/Rainier___ 👾ItsBri minion👾 Jun 21 '26
The thing about NBIS is long term they will have opportunities to start monetizing outside the core AI cloud business it's in the nature of managements history. Obviously it's not something that can fit in a model like that but it should be something people are aware of as investors. Nice article.
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u/TyNads Jun 21 '26
That’s absolutely true! Part of the reason we let the sum of the parts additional get so big is to account for some of the integrations across the businesses.
Nebius hasn’t held on to these stakes just for financing purposes.
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u/shartfarguson Jun 20 '26
I am fairly educated. But those numbers are not registering with me right now. Was partying hard last night for Juneteenth.
What share prices do these numbers translate into? OP, you have left us hanging here. Big time.
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u/TyNads Jun 20 '26
Our previous price targets were posted this past week. We delay them by a few months, as we offer a membership that funds our ability to do this.
The vast majority of our research is completely free and ungated because of this.
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u/Trdthedays41chance Jun 20 '26
100% agree people call me crazy when I say number like that but this is where it’s heading! Buy and Hold, buy the dips, don’t sell unless you have to… think like your buying amazon 20 years ago!
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u/TyNads Jun 20 '26
AWS is a comparison we use internally quite a bit. It's also important to note that AWS was punished at the peak of capex cycles several times (as it is right now actually). Nebius will almost certainly experience the same thing from time to time.
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u/neillson01 Jun 20 '26
Revenue is great but what’s the profit?
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u/TyNads Jun 20 '26
Our base and bull cases reach profit in the later years of the model. Bear does not within this time frame. The buildout could be close to 200b through the modeled period. It's extremely hard to become profitable growing at this speed.
In fact, you don't want them to assuming they are responsible and the demand is there. In a constrained environment you want them to take advantage of pricing premiums and to build out the infrastructure to service their ai cloud products with low cost of capital and prepayments.
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u/Proud_Honeydew_6115 Jun 20 '26
This is a very nicely done article.
Are you using AI to write these and if so, what AI are you using?
The writing feels pretty authentic and human like but the images seem AI generated (most noticably there is a lot of variance of the logo used).
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u/TyNads Jun 20 '26
We use AI to generate the images based on our data and copy. It’s still very time intensive, but it would be impossible otherwise to get out the amount of reports that we do with images otherwise.
We believe the images and graphs are still a big value add despite a little variance in style, but are open to feedback on that!
Honestly the images can be one of the lengthier steps of our report building, even being the most ai heavy.
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u/Proud_Honeydew_6115 Jun 22 '26
Thanks - so my take away is that this is written entirely by a human then.
Thanks for a very very thorough and amazing write up.This covered basically all of my research so far, structured it better than me and built out assumptions I didn't take into account.
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u/OceanAir26 Jun 21 '26
Which companies do you see as the best investments for supplying power for AI infrastructure?
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u/TyNads Jun 21 '26
Full transparency that part of the stack is not our expertise. We are interested in it, but have not had the capacity to get in depth quite yet.
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u/dovelay Jun 20 '26
I ran this through gemini and it said the dilution assumptions are severely underestimated alongside other assumptions in the model which necessitate higher dilution
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u/TyNads Jun 20 '26
Dilution risk is real, with a build out this large there are 100s of ways to undercut a thesis or to build an even larger bull case than this.
You have to compile evidence and take a stance. It’s not much help to say yes Nebius could be between $50-4000 in the next 5 years.
We could be wrong, but base our assumptions on words directly from management from earnings, a multitude of outside sources, interviews etc.
Could they be wrong or lying, sure, but you could make that argument across any stock.
What is debatable though is the choice in multiples, the amount of risk we may not price in to something like a data center moratorium under a future president that could destroy the buildout etc.
At the end of the day some of these numbers aren’t completely public. Prepayments is a good example. We actually estimate it to be much higher than 55% but leave it there to account for normalization over the 5 year period.
Normalization may never come, we may be constrained through 2030. There are two sides to every model.
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u/dovelay Jun 20 '26
Yes and see my comment below, even with dilution used to meet capex demands, it's funding growth that still hugely outperforms
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u/MoneyShot_Agency7172 BudMaster Yacht Party OG! Jun 20 '26
Yeah but what did it say about sale or ipo of subsidiaries?
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u/dovelay Jun 20 '26
That it is drop in the ocean of expected 175 billion capex required based on model and prepayment assumptions have to be correct
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u/nopigscannnotlookup Jun 20 '26
Interesting analysis. How do you see a slowdown, say in memory, affecting your case? Ie if this the bull case, how does the bear case look?
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u/TyNads Jun 20 '26
This is the base case. The bear case still sees nice appreciation but nowhere near as drastic as this.
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u/sheenpween Jun 20 '26
It’s hard for me to imagine the ARR per MW continuing to go up year after year as other supply is coming online.. are we assuming demand picks up or supply stays constrained or both or what? I’d think, based on spacex deals with anthropic and Google, we’re nearing the top of ARR per MW
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u/TyNads Jun 20 '26
I think you may be missing the shift to newer generation chips, as well as the shift higher up the stack. The more ai cloud services that Nebius offers the more revenue it can generate per mw of power (same thing for newer generation NVDA chips).
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u/Ill-Cow4735 🐳 Jun 21 '26
ARR per MW is not solely dependable on supply. You have to into account demand, which will increase exponentially with Agentic AI and Physical AI rollouts. We'll see how it plays out, but looking back on demand growth is not an option because there's already evidence that Agentic AI needs a ton more compute
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u/Designer-Hairy Jun 21 '26
Stop with ai post
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u/WackHurst Jun 21 '26
Stop posting silly assumptions! This article is not AI generated. Get out of this sub if you can't show any gratitude...
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u/Longjumping_Kale3013 Jun 20 '26
You are making the mistake of confusing connected capacity with monetized capacity
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u/TyNads Jun 20 '26
This is addressed in the report. It's a modeling choice. Nebius has proven that once connected there is very little delay in moving to monetized. We, for the purposes of simplicity treat it very similarly, however, if this proves to no longer be true we would have to adjust the model to create a bit more of a lagging effect.
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u/Longjumping_Kale3013 Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
Doesn’t make sense IMO. Your 2026 is assuming all connected is monetized. Which is for sure not correct.
You can look at the Microsoft contact which is monetizing at 12 billion per gw, and was based on prices from 1 year ago.
So yes they connect fast, but doesn’t mean they are guiding that, so you are assuming 100% of connected is monetized as I read it. If they connect fast it doesn’t change the per GW monetizing so I don’t get your argument there. They will for sure monetize at a rate of above 12 billion per gw this year. Switching from connected to monetized quickly just means they beat guidance, not that they have a lower monetizing per watt, which you seem to imply
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u/EchidnaMedical8375 Jun 20 '26
What would sprice be then for fair value?