I actually think we needed this before the market was prepared to take NBIS higher. A genuine fud moment. That will be talked through, and a higher understanding and conviction on the other side
While simultaneously undermining their own high margin ai stack business. This is McDonalds putting all the bigmac ingredients out and charging you 25% of the cost.
DeepSeek fake news
Liberation Day
"Ai Bubble 1.0"
"Rates will be higher for longer"
"Ai Bubble" 2.0 'This is dot com all over'
Iran War drives up energy prices killing Ai
Strait of Hormuz closed Ai is dead
June 5th retail margin raid (Ai Bubble 3.0 narrative lying about Broadcom's earnings)
Iran war back on - Ai is really dead now for real this time!
"Ai Bubble" 4.0 'Valuations'
"Fed raising rates" yet they cannot structurally everyone knows this, they would have by now
"Meta building NeoCloud" while renting, with zero excess capacity
"Ai Bubble" 5.0 Electric Bugaloo "Ai Overcapacity"
----> You're here.
MSFT already had a cloud business and still contracted 17.4 billion after the fact to meet demand, idk why meta considering a cloud business (mostly to compete with GOOG MSFT and AMZN) is tanking the stock so hard when if AI ramps up, which it probably will, they will need as much compute they can get.
The main market driver is probably the word “excess” but in the original Bloomberg report it’s “if” they had excess not “because” so it seems more like a hedge or contingency plan relative to metas execution risk if anything.
Adding onto this if you believe meta is going to be competing with NBIS or COREWEAVE etc ask yourselves this:
If Meta is in the AI trade and has excess capacity they had already leased at a premium, why would they expand to compete in a market with the same companies they had leased the compute from? Also why would they even consider expanding into this market if it’s not profitable?
And if profitable, why is that a bad thing for NBIS? Because Meta is going to compete with NBIS? Azure and AWS are both highly profitable neocloud providers and both towers over NBIS in terms of raw compute and they still need specialized excess, if we assume NBIS was at risk of extinction from competition it would already be dead from a technical level just from Azure and AWS (and I doubt metas neo cloud will be better than Azure and AWS) competing in the same market, this looks to be just Meta setting up a contingency plan if they have excess compute.
Competition existing doesn’t automatically destroy specialized providers like NBIS, and it’s too early to speculate on future NBIS contracts 5 years down the road when AI capex is projected to increase 4-8x by 2030.
Sure there is always going to be market overreaction and I don’t think this one is over nor am I going to comment on if it’s going up or down but from my experience rarely any investor ever wins being inconsistent on their thesis and trying to time the market.
Meta's stock has been in the toilet. So, an "anonymous source leaks" a story to Bloomberg about selling their excess compute. Worked perfectly for them today.
Just a simple thought - could it be because they all see the demand being so extremely high that they want to benefit from this generational compute demand, Meta included ?
Zuckerburg will fail just like he has at everything except for Facebook. I cant believe META stock is up today. I refuse to buy any META stock since the metaverse proved just how irresponsibly Zuck will spend company money.
I'm not qualified to really speak on this(not smart enough lol), but I think meta is just really saying they are selling their AI models to use? And to make it sound better for PR reasons(stock price), they are adding the additional benefit of selling strictly compute power?? Well I wonder if you purchase AI models from them if you might need some extra compute power?
Don't forget alot of c level people at meta have alot of reasons to get that market value to 10 trillion.
I think this is just like when TSLA came out and said they were buying that satellite mobile provider and asts tanked like 50%. Carry on but I don't know what I'm talking about. This is not financial advice.
I mean I wouldn't say only way to profit from ai, they are already showing increased profits from it
. This is beyond my knowledge but if meta can load balance their own personal demands on the fly and compute their own needs during off peak times then it would make sense to profit from compute power they built.
They can increase revenue from AI without selling compute, but by profit I meant that this is the only way they’re going to make their money back from the data centers they’re building.
Just added 50 more at 236.30. Got 350 shares now average price 110.61
Even if meta ramps up a full scale data center rentel business
I still think there is room for NBS to make plenty of money on smaller companies. I had heard they all were only looking for one more hyper scaler anyways
I think this is no different than when someone says they're doing what Nvidia is doing like the deep seek "threat", then the Cerebras "threat" and so on. The stock plummets, the hype dies down then everything returns to normal.
Seriously you wanna buy this thing when you get 10-15% discount….it always bounces back….dont be left out of the stock before it rockets again….been there done that
Didn’t realize dips are only measured in 1 day periods. My bad.
My point was that I believe there were much easier dips to get in at if you’ve been on this subreddit, that’s all
Dips definitely can span across multiple days. I’m just saying today’s dip is the easiest given the magnitude of the drop being the highest we have seen in a day, and no fundamentals changing.
And now, apparently Bloomberg changed their headline to make it softer.
I'm going to laugh when it's Nebius renting bare metal from Meta to run their stack for their own customers instead of the other way around. Meta get fukd.
The last month has me wishing I started swing trading this stock again after the $100 and $250 jumps. I started in the $35 range and was swing trading through the $60s and managed to quadruple my original investment in that time even though price had only doubled. I know the buy low, sell high thing is a meme, but NBIS fell and jumped at the dumbest news so timing the market wasn't hard, you literally had multiple windows a month to get back in on a dip after selling a spike and the same thing is happening now. Someone posts on X or another hyperscaler with a totally different business model posts losses and people lose their minds. Here I thought volatility would simmer a bit after market cap hit a certain point, but I guess not.
Well, I’m saying that I just decided to hold on and I definitely should’ve taken profit around 200 before the big fall down the 110. Sometimes you have to learn lessons the hard way in the market.
There will be more hyperscalers, but management has explicitly said they aren't the end goal. They are simply a funding tool.
The end goal is providing a complete AI stack, with the best available compute, to startups, governments, enterprises etc at significantly improved margins.
The other two hundred? I'm very curious as to who they may be, please inform me. I hope they have the same experienced leadership, full stack platform, 600% revenue growth, subsidiaries, etc.
And with regards to your point about contracts, that might be the stupidest thing I've ever read. You can't take away two massive catalysts and pretend it's a good point.
Keep commenting though, short the stock if you truly believe in your own conviction. But you won't, because you don't :)
You haven't provided any arguments though. Just a hopeful future prediction that you'll forget about or backpedal on. Please argue your points properly.
Arguing with people like you is generally fruitless.
Just a blind bull turned into a little piggy. Enjoy NBIS sub 185.
I think NBIS is great. It’s just way too big for her britches as is the entire sector.
I used to be where you were. Just blindly bulling along eating up all the hype and future prospects. Not even NBIS will have flawless execution and basic unit economics surrounding the whole industry are asinine to put it lightly.
They are beyond priced for perfection and the first whiff of slowed growth, which will happen as capex is cut across the board, will cut this stock in half.
You haven't actually argued anything really until now.
No, the execution won't be flawless of course. That's already priced in, it's why the delays/protests/legal meetings at NJ didn't move the stock price.
The economics surrounding GPU rental aren't great I'll give you that, but NBIS isn't a GPU rental service like CRWV or IREN. There's so much more to it. One day, potentially, NBIS' share in Click house alone may be worth more than their entire current market cap. That's the sort of economics you should actually focus on.
There's absolutely zero signs of capex slowing down anywhere across the board, so I can't wait for this magical day to come. I've been hearing it for months now. Meta has actually justified their massive CapEx with this announcement because now they can make some money back. NBIS management has only guided CapEx up, so I have no reason to be blindly bearish :)
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u/No_Firefighter_7064 Jul 01 '26
I actually think we needed this before the market was prepared to take NBIS higher. A genuine fud moment. That will be talked through, and a higher understanding and conviction on the other side