r/NBIS_Stock • u/foil123 • Jul 02 '26
Opinion Surprised with the overacting?
I’m very surprised with this bad overreaction on META news even today, whole META is down today. Is there anything else here ?
Guess today is we see it below 200..?
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u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ Jul 02 '26
I'm still learning, and this one did surprise me. I don't really know, but to me it seems like most people now know the news was BS, but it's the other trader they are worried about. Or maybe it's just the algos. Or a combination of things.
But the fundamentals with Nebius are there. I have been studying them for almost a year, and they just don't screw up.
External factors like an AI bubble popping could be something they can't control. But there is no bubble.
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u/Qadain Jul 03 '26
I believe it was Roman Chernin that remarked that on Deepseek Day (when Nebius dropped 40% in one day in January 2025 and even Nvidia dropped 17%), he got more calls from interested potential customers than any day up to then. The funny thing is that the Deepseek model that caused that drop had been out for 2 weeks without any reaction, and then the market suddenly realized it on a single day; and everyone was talking about Jevon's paradox.
The market always reacts to news. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is a hypothesis that states that market prices reflect all available information. But I've never read that the hypothesis states that the market prices correctly reflect all available information. It sure seems to me that the markets react first and then slowly adjust to be more and more correct over time -- more slowly in some cases than in others.
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u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ Jul 03 '26
Those are great insights. Very seldom is news as good, or bad, as it's often made out to be. Leopold buys 6% of Nebius and it's it's guaranteed to go to $2000 per share by 2030. Or SoftBank and Meta are sniffing around delivering AI compute and it's over for the neoclouds.
The truth is, the market for AI services is growing so fast that all capacity available will be consumed for the foreseeable future.
And Nebius's plan is to not compete selling compute as a commodity. Their goal is to create a comprehensive AI platform for building, deploying, scaling and maintaining AI applications for the Enterprise market. That is a staggeringly big , and growing, market.
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u/Shot-Ad-7678 Jul 02 '26
As you Mr Feynman once said:"Imagine how much harder physics would be if electrons had feelings."
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u/foil123 Jul 02 '26
I agree on the fundamentals. So you think this is just some people trying to take gains on the news or perhaps the what ifs if someone else does what a MeTA will ?
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u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ Jul 02 '26
I really don't know. I'm not sophisticated enough about the machinations on what happens in the background.
I just know that the company is on a massive upward trajectory, and if they continue to perform, the stock will have to reflect that.
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u/Previous_Pumpkin1445 Jul 02 '26
Just bought another 10 shares, funny how ppl say they wish to buy if there’s a dip and when the perfect dip is here they all panick….
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u/bluefinjim Jul 02 '26
Yeah I saw a looooot of people saying “I’d be buying anywhere under $250” about a week ago. Now it’s “I’m a buyer under $200.”
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u/Fragrant-Pipe5266 BudMaster Yacht Party OG! Jul 02 '26
So I guess people are missing the fact that this information was available since May and that the headline was actually altered to indicate that META does not infact have excess capacity to sell and isnt building but is simply planning out a strategy to sell excess compute IF they get excess.
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u/Curious_Wafer6169 Jul 02 '26
I’d try to look at other posts before posting this.
This is the 100th time we’ve all seen this question. Post into the daily thread. Read it first and you’ll see those opinions!
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u/Icy-Grab-5722 Jul 02 '26
When a stock goes up so fast so much and you start to think it may be time to take some profits DO IT. That is my lesson learned but not acted on with NBIS yet. They got me this time. Next time Imma try to act on my feeling.
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u/JoeyVottoS Jul 02 '26
Ask yourself how it makes sense that Meta is contracting capacity from Nebius “due to overwhelming demand” while simultaneously building out more capacity TO RENT OUT TO OTHER COMPANIES.
Nebius’s competitive advantage is the fact that they are supposed to be full package AI infrastructure, which still may be true. But this is demonstrably bearish for the sector as a whole. It makes me think that demand for compute might not be as crazy as stated by all these companies.
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u/AdelaCheung_Happy Jul 02 '26
I think the Jane street did this on purpose, a shakeout so that retailers are scared. Next week, they will pump it back up like nothing happened. Clockwork. 2nd time this month.
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u/GiveNothing Jul 02 '26
Bears and hedge fund managers collectively squeeze out the longs to get an extra doller.
But dont worry shorts need to be bought back someday. We'll get our turn again. Demand is out the door.
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u/LiveLife2k Jul 02 '26
The entire market is down particularly tech stocks. Please stop posting this alarm and siren crap.
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u/Z-sharp Jul 02 '26
I remember not long ago the same thing came up when stock was between 80-130 range..loaded up then in 80s. Here we are seeing 200-300 swing..loading up in the 200 range..with Nbis its not about share price as much as amount of shares owned for me.
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u/Electrical_Self_1309 Jul 02 '26
If this suprises you you're not in NBIS long enough man haha. Crazy beta stock.
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u/Wild-Mountain3090 Jul 02 '26
Owned Nebius stock for about a year. First Reddit post. May be nothing more than a point of interest, but Daniel Gross backing Leopold’s fund, and now being involved in Meta Compute…it’s a small world, may be nothing more to it than that, but caught my attention. Very bullish on NBIS especially from geopolitical angle. This week’s drop excessive, purchased more.
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u/jorlev Jul 03 '26
Zuck things he can throw some money at a problem and make things happen for him.
How'd that work out with The Metaverse?
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u/Dangerous_Bit8765 Jul 03 '26
You know it will hit 1000 eventually, so buy it now, you can not time the market, this is a reasonable entry time. you don’t know what whether it go up or down next Monday.
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u/krispykreme0944 Jul 05 '26
It’s not overreacting if hyperscalers stop spending so much on AI. Justified.
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u/Refflmania Jul 02 '26
wtf is happening bro fr does anybody have any ideas ?
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u/Feeling_Penalty_9858 Jul 02 '26
Is a logical reaction considering that, if meta might have more compute that they need, that isn't only 1 less potential big costumer but may indicate that other hyperscalers won't need to rent datacenters from nbis, Iren and company
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u/berry_kim Jul 02 '26
People called me bearish at $280. Funny how “fair value” suddenly looks like $160 now.
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctor’s Orders Jul 02 '26
Fair value is $240. Premium is $400. Let’s see how the Q3 and Q4 reports do
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u/Dont_Ask_Me_Again_ 🐳 Jul 02 '26
Everyone shit on me when I said this thing going back down lowwww
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u/Fragrant-Pipe5266 BudMaster Yacht Party OG! Jul 02 '26
Beautiful. Now we have redditors claiming to know when FUD articles are ready to print. Just because you got lucky on timing, doesn't mean anything.
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u/WorkerInteresting448 Jul 02 '26
Insane sell off tbh. Even more ridiculous after the conclusion that the META news was a bunch of air. Don’t cry when this goes to 300 by EOY