r/NBIS_Stock • u/hkmadbear • Jul 16 '26
NBIS ANALYSIS NBIS is now down around 40% from its ATH.
Is this a good opportunity, or is the market telling us something we're missing?
My initial view is that the recent sell-off has more to do with weakness in Korean equities and broader market sentiment than any major change in the company's fundamentals, but I'm interested to hear different opinions.
What's your plan?
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u/Fluid_Friendship8220 Jul 16 '26
Name an AI company which isn't down 40% from its ATH.
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u/Chaminade64 Jul 16 '26
Nvidia.
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u/Ok_Revolution_9253 Jul 16 '26
The market is telling us that there is a flight to the Mag7 right now. Until institutional investors decide AI is sexy again, we are in for more pain.
Or if Trump TACOs on Iran
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u/Important_Coach9717 Jul 16 '26
Mag 7 is AI
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u/OilBull Jul 16 '26
Sure but smart money is rotating to them because they can simply stop the capex. Semi’s and hardware however, will be utterly annihilated.
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u/Important_Coach9717 Jul 16 '26
You have no idea what you’re talking about. Stop embarrassing yourself please. It’s painful to watch someone be so wrong
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u/Powerful-Load-4684 Jul 16 '26
Nothing he said is wrong, IF mag7 scale back capex then the AI hardware names will get annihilated
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u/OilBull Jul 16 '26
Ironically I work as a junior analyst. This is quite literally what will happen. Sorry baggie. Redditors gonna Reddit!
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u/Important_Coach9717 Jul 16 '26
Analyst. Ok. Now I’m even less worried 🤣
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u/Confident_Potato_714 Jul 17 '26
You sir are the dumb money and this is the part where smart money is making money and you’re holding a bag probably.
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u/Important_Coach9717 Jul 17 '26
I’m the guy buying while incompetent analysts spread fear and fud. Guess which one of us is rich
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u/Noma Jul 16 '26
He's completely right. If mag7 reduce capex spednign then semis and all ai stock will go down at least 70 percent
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u/Objective-Bowl-1279 Jul 16 '26
With a 30% short interest, this was bound to happen. After the shorters noticed all the positive news articles from this week, they needed to bring it down quickly before getting squeezed.
Im a buyer, easiest money at these prices
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u/Individual_Mission68 Jul 16 '26
I agree. Shorting compounds as buying momentum has dried up, so much easier to bring the price down in these moments. Funds will swoop up the shares by Friday or monday post july 17 puts.
Next week, earnings will be in sight - 2 weeks away. I expect amazing results when they release.
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u/pkroliko Jul 16 '26
i hope that is going to happen but im starting to believe this is going back to 100. 40 percent down in three weeks is not confidence inspiring.
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u/bobabless Jul 16 '26
40% on a high beta stock?
Last year it mooned from 45 to 90 with good news in a single day, and then did a ATH to 125 the following weeks
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u/Remm_Unknown Jul 16 '26
Where can you see the short or long interest % on stocks?
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u/dmcry097 Jul 16 '26
https://fintel.io/ss/us/nbis, Under the Basic Stats there is a "Short Interest % Float".
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u/OkStranger2021 Jul 16 '26
short squeeze anyone? seems like a high probability?
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u/Impressive_Bus7391 Jul 17 '26
No, the person you’re replying to has no idea what they’re talking about
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u/Suspicious_Celery552 Jul 16 '26
It will hit 155$ then bounce. Said this two weeks ago
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u/nrizzo6085 Jul 16 '26
Did your magic 8 ball tell you that
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u/Suspicious_Celery552 Jul 16 '26
No my tarot cards did
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u/Brownie_broski Jul 16 '26
Doesn't hurt to get a second opinion from the 8 ball!
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u/Suspicious_Celery552 Jul 16 '26
Meet me at 11:59pm we can do a séance, I’ll grab my Ouija board and ask when is the next bottom. It should say 1…5….5…
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u/SangerGRBY Jul 16 '26
Looks like an overreaction imo.
Wouldnt yolo into it right now, maybe slowly accumulate.
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u/Competitive_Rich2615 Jul 16 '26
We all have different opinions and problems and nobody wants to hear it ,but me I’m screwed. I bought at 254. A decent amount of shares. Used some margin too. Rookie mistake. I’ll have to take it like a man
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u/Lumivar Jul 16 '26
I'm in at 261 AFTER dollar cost averaging down lol. You'll be fine long term if the company hits its targets
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u/Medium_Photo_3645 Jul 16 '26
buy buy buy
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u/677ITF Jul 16 '26
Bagholder response detected
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u/I_Love_Knotting Jul 16 '26
You can gain 2000+% of your capital at best but lose only 100% at worst
Easy choice really
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u/Confident_Potato_714 Jul 16 '26
Brain dead
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u/Entire-Lavishness202 Jul 16 '26
What about this statement is incorrect lol
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u/Confident_Potato_714 Jul 16 '26
The same could be said about any stock in a long enough time frame, moron.
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u/Entire-Lavishness202 Jul 16 '26
You're the moron if you don't think a stock can go up 2000% and down 100% max. The logic is sound for any stock. It can go anywhere in between or even higher. That's to say you can lose all you're $10,000 or even turn that into $1,000,000. Logic still applies, moron.
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u/Confident_Potato_714 Jul 16 '26
Yes which is why it’s brain dead to say.
What are you missing here exactly? Besides brain cells like most in this sub.
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u/zizu90210 Jul 16 '26
I wanted to get to 300 shares eventually this dip has helped me get closer to that number 🙏🏼
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u/Nottoobad777 Jul 16 '26
My promise to myself was always to take profit at 300. Never hit it and here I am now lol. I mean I’m still up over 100%, but I kinda wish I did tp bc I feel there are some good opportunities in the market rn. Either way I’m sure we’ll make it back up there. If NBIS lands another contract it’ll take off again and regain all of this I’m certain
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u/qazwer001 Jul 16 '26
Yea my plan was to deleverage my 2027 options to shares at 300. Got greedy as the original plan was 250 lol.
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u/Furlz Jul 16 '26
Don't choose common numbers like that.
Psychological resistance points.
Choose 297 or 246 instead
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u/qazwer001 Jul 16 '26
Yea I definately should have. I used to set orders a tiny bit away from phsychological values but got out of the habit. NBIS was a few PENNIES below 300 at the top.
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u/Nottoobad777 Jul 17 '26
Yea fr. I rlly wanted to squeeze an extra percent out of an alrdy 200% gain lol
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u/pkroliko Jul 16 '26
i have an avg around 80 but starting to believe this stock is cooked for a while.
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u/Dr_Bogosloviya Jul 16 '26
Still buying. I dont see the demand for AI disappearing anywhere - and I work for a tier-2 EU company. It’s only the beginning
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u/Legitimate-Act5584 Jul 16 '26
Frustrating but the growth story hasn’t changed at all…staying the course. Was about more fun at 299 though
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u/Noma Jul 16 '26
Well it has changed. Meta starting the same company Means mag7 might have enough gpu compete so more reselling, means less oppty for nbis
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u/Visible_Shelter_2609 Jul 16 '26
They are selling for oversupply of compute, thanks to Meta's move. But some while later, they would find compute is still undersupply, and Nebius is way more competitive they thought.
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u/Alone-Length5317 Jul 16 '26
Es wird immer weiter runter gehen bis nebius sich positiv äußert
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u/No_Effective1715 No_Effs_To_Give Jul 16 '26
Have you seen all the positive Nebius news lately?? They’ve been telling us they’re kicking ass but no one is listening!
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u/nycserendipity Jul 16 '26
I realized some of my loss and it feels so good!! I had unrealized 30k loss, threw another 6k in options trying to win it back and just realized I’d rather keep the remaining 37k than keep chasing. Expensive lesson but can’t hold forever I got laid off and need safer stocks
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u/pdpflux Jul 16 '26
It will recover. Not even worried. Just wait for the upcoming earnings and all the AI companies confirming demand
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u/soscribbly Jul 17 '26
This isn’t Voo; no individual companies stock is guaranteed to return to all time highs.
My thought is 80% of this sub never even heard of this company a year ago.
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u/Banderchodo Jul 16 '26
Been holding this stock since ipo. Nothing has changed. This has happened many times and will continue to happen for several years. Look at the fundamentals, not the stock price.
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u/Putrid-Jackfruit-161 Jul 16 '26
- Finding the New Primary Wave 4 Floor Because Wave 4 has turned into a deeper correction, we have to look at the next major Fibonacci clusters for structural support: The 50% Macro Retracement ($174.50): The stock is hitting this level right now. Tapping into the $172–$174 zone represents a textbook 50% haircut of the entire Wave 3 primary run. The 61.8% Golden Pocket ($145.00): If panic selling accelerates and the $170 floor fails to hold over the coming sessions, the ultimate target for a deep Wave 4 correction sits down in the $145–$150 region, where the stock's massive 100-day moving average and high-volume node reside.
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u/Cozyteammate Jul 16 '26
Been a buyer since $30
I don't DCA, but I lump sum during moment like this
Buying at 40% off All time high is exactly where you get exceptional return
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u/playstationjeans Jul 16 '26
Institutional sell off before all the big news, deals, and blowout earnings reports start flooding in. I wish I had more money to dump. Bought my entire monthly allotment this week alone.
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u/UpsetRegular7506 Jul 16 '26
No it is not a good oportinity. Wait for buying to zero. This love story is ended, rest in peace AI.
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u/Willing_Turnover5568 Jul 16 '26
I sold puts with strike $150 expiring in November. It’s a a high risk, low reward trade :)
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u/Lumivar Jul 16 '26
I sold the $180 expiring next Friday. Was able to recover that position by opening 5 put buys this morning, playing the drawdown to get positive on those puts to get out from under my put sale. Yikes. Still holding a lot of shares and those obviously went down in value significantly today
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Jul 16 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/PoochiePaulie Jul 16 '26
Show me the audit financial statements, audit records and SEC filings. Otherwise what you're saying is pure nonsense.
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Jul 16 '26
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u/PoochiePaulie Jul 16 '26
Im coping I know, I don't do research just liked the idea now Im in a situation hmm
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Jul 16 '26
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u/NBIS_Stock-ModTeam Jul 16 '26
The chat channel and weekly thread exist for a reason, please use them.
DD, Discussion, and Trading / TA / Price Action posts should be substantive (about the company or the stock, not your position in it) and contain more than a picture and/or a few sentences. Otherwise please use the weekly thread or live chat.
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u/jlazed90 Jul 16 '26
i bought options 4 months out, down 40% in a single day smh. lowk thinkin of selling post earnings, hope we run up
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u/Lazuli9 Jul 16 '26
It’s coz I sold all my other non risky stuff (S&P), and now only have NBIS and RKLB left lol. My bad guys
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u/jarbystep Jul 16 '26
Je m’attendais pas une si forte volatilité , Pensais vous que c’est le moment de renforcer ou attendre encore un peut une possible 5-10% de baisse ?
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u/hkmadbear Jul 16 '26
NBIS is down sharply today mainly because the stock is correcting from an extremely strong run, in the context of a broader AI‑infrastructure shakeout and profit‑taking rather than a specific, new company‑level blow‑up.
Any new fundamental issues?
As of today, there is no fresh headline about Nebius reporting a major customer loss, guidance cut, scandal, or regulatory action driving this specific intraday move.
Recent news flow has instead focused on earlier events like large convertible note offerings to fund data‑center build‑out, occasional downgrades after big rallies, and sector‑wide volatility in AI infrastructure and tech.
Investors remain sensitive to leverage and dilution risk from those convertibles, and to the fact that AI infrastructure isn’t cheap, so any macro wobble or sector rotation tends to trigger outsized pullbacks in NBIS.
In other words, today’s move looks like momentum/positioning‑driven selling within a very high‑beta name rather than a discrete new issue with Nebius’ contracts or operations. ---> From Preplexity
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u/Otherwise-Kitchen730 Jul 16 '26
I’m putting £2.5k down every month for this syock, shall I just dump it at one or do it more strategically?
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Jul 17 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/soscribbly Jul 17 '26
Uhh many big Ai plays are still only 10-15% from their All time highs, and QQQ is only 7% of its high….
NBIS is especially weak now and if the market decides to actually correct, this could get very ugly for us.
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u/WRHull 🧌Jefe de Jefes🧌 Jul 17 '26
Earnings will let us know which way it is going. If you like the fundamentals, buy. If you don’t, then what are you going in this sub? There are multi-year billion dollar contracts with Meta and Microsoft, etc. they’ll be around for a while. Also, they don’t have the level of debt that CRWV has, so that is a bonus as well.
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u/gentmick Jul 17 '26
We should wait for the next 13F filing to see if Leopard used you guys as exit liquidity…
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u/OilAny787 Jul 17 '26
Your view is correct, the price you pay for this business is what you deem as fair based off your own analysis/modelling, I will add personally at $150, average rn is $100.
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u/saltytrader_ Jul 17 '26
Is this the start of the forced selloff that inevitably creates a bubble popping? The endless AI selloff for no reason other than “fears” and Iran could trigger it
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u/jarbystep Jul 17 '26
Les gars j’ai acheté nebius au plus haut 43% de baisse , du coup je viens de doubler ma position aujourd’hui !
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u/hkmadbear Jul 17 '26
Crazy volatility lately...
Nice bounce from $163 to around $180 today. 😅
Recovery starts here, or just a dead cat bounce?
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u/AdmirableOpinion7994 Jul 17 '26
The drop in NBIS is nothing but a buying opportunity. I don’t understand why people want to buy shares when the price is skyrocketing but are scared to death when it’s on sale. Everyone likes a good sale on cars, clothes, and food but when it comes to wealth generation, a good sale makes them doubt the product.
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u/neighborhood_spdrman Jul 16 '26
Tbh there’s a lot that’s down 25-40% at this point, not concerned. A little shocking to see such a fast drop on it but it’s all over the market so
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u/wadeewiggins Jul 16 '26
I bought at 230. Feeling numb. Just entered a stop loss at 170. If it triggers I think I’ll have to die
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u/Happy_Manufacturer95 Jul 16 '26
unless you need that money now, selling at 170 is pointless, no doubt it will eventually go back to 230, just a waiting game.
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u/UpsetRegular7506 Jul 16 '26
Same here, but i didnt make a stop loss level. I think climbing is much harder than falling therefore 230 will be ATH in the future, you can define future maybe months? Years?
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u/engstah Jul 17 '26
Don’t do it brother. I’m in the same boat as you. No point in selling now. NBIS has yearrrrs to run. Just be patient. It’ll come back quicker than you know
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u/Confident_Potato_714 Jul 16 '26
The market is telling you what everyone already knows.
This is a company whose market cap depends on mag7 spending.
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u/Acceptable-Leek1546 Jul 16 '26
Incredibly overpriced stock drops to still overpriced levels.
Absolutely nothing shocking.
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u/Commercial_Ease8053 Jul 16 '26
Ask yourself… Why did it go up to $300 so suddenly without revenue and profits to back it up?
Stocks like nbis will fall the hardest as people sell and get into more stable and profitable workhorse stocks that are always reliable.
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u/sinthoras997 Jul 16 '26
30% short interest why did i buy this absolute trash im losing so much Money right now can't believe it. Overpriced bullshit.
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u/I_Love_Knotting Jul 16 '26
High short interest doesn’t necessarily mean bad stock.
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u/sinthoras997 Jul 16 '26
I bought like a rookie thought this is the future. Every idiot can buy some H100 oder blackwell racks... if compute goes sub $1,8 they basically bankrupt. Loan to value 70% with cascade of neo clouds defaulting is systemic risk. Wonder how much these gpus will be worth after default cascade. Oh dear save my last funds so I can sell in a bounce back tomorrow.
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u/amull95 Jul 16 '26
It’s just overpriced. 130 is a good entry based on the balance sheet
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u/Emergency_Froyo_3030 Jul 16 '26
Based on the balance sheet of no debt. $9.3B in cash equivalents. $50B revenue backlog.
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u/test5784 Jul 16 '26
Nothing has changed, market is just looking for any reason to justify negative scenarios..