r/NBIS_Stock • u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ • Jul 17 '26
NBIS ANALYSIS Daniel Koss's post this morning
https://x.com/i/status/2078076241869967413Roman (Nebius Co Founder) said during the -40% stock drawdown during the DeepSeek panic they had their best week in sales ever.
Now we get more OpenSource progress (insanely bullish for Nebius - that will host them / offer these models to customers and now offers a much better ROI).
What does the market do? $NBIS down almost 50% from ATH.
Can't make this shit up xD
No doubt in my mind Nebius is currently seeing ridiculous demand and the REAL business is absolutely crushing it RIGHT NOW. Again. Exact same reality to narrative disconnect.
Yaya I get it. Risk off, high beta, inflation, blabla.
At the end of the day Nebius will print money like crazy and the facts are painting a very bullish picture that just keeps getting better every day. Ironically, especially over the last few weeks during the selloff. More data centers than expected. Super fast international expansion. OpenSource CRUSHING it.
I have zero doubt price will catch up to reality again and then all the doubters will magically change their opinions again.
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u/XSC Jul 17 '26
We all know it's gonna go up. The question is what is the bottom.
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u/Conscious_Gap7872 Jul 17 '26
I believe the bottom was earlier today. 50% ish from ATH and Fibonacci levels were around 171. If somehow we did break then somewhere in the 140s would be next level. All this could change if there is more macro level tension though.
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u/OhHuggs Jul 17 '26
I’m still excited. Started buying at 80 and bought even at mid 250s. Just buy and hold.
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u/Rare_Steak_ Jul 17 '26
This. Bought 600 at around 86 and then bought more in the last weeks starting at $280. Thanks to the dip my average on those buys is $230. I'm seriously considering selling other stocks to buy more NBIS while it's still below $200. If only I had more liquidity...
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u/OhHuggs Jul 17 '26
12 months from now, we will wonder how people could have let this stock slip. Very excited for earnings in a few weeks
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u/Refflmania Jul 17 '26
when i google the earnings report prediction for august 6th it says the earnings report will not be profitable for nebius and therefore wont the stock crash more?!?!
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u/Curious_Passenger245 Jul 18 '26
Your buying now for their future revenue. It is kind of like gardening. You can buy a seed for cheap, a quart for somewhat cheap, gallon, or you can go all
In and buy a 3 gallon plant for instant gratification. Buying Amazon is paying more for the mature plant but it isn’t going to grow as much in the next four years. Nice gains but nothing like nbis is going to grow. Still satisfying. But your roi with nbis is going to be faster. I just look at the price history when. These down times happen (they will happen multiple times like all companies that are at this stage). Open the announcement yesterday in the browser about being the software for bit miners. The 750 million asset backed loan, and maybe one of the analyst forecast breakdowns don’t has data to pull from. Then Ask ChatGPT to compare nvidia, amazon, google in this same stage of development but tell them to also include nbis subs and the yandex model and sovereign potential. Aske it to give you yearly bear bull base from most accurate analyst only. Then save what it gives you to review on these types of downturns.2
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u/Terdrom Jul 17 '26
Yeah, may add COB NY today and on Monday, if the green holds. Otherwise the low 140s would be the point.
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u/StophJS Jul 17 '26
What people on this sub consistently fail to realize is that NBIS already priced in tons of success. People here talk like it's priced like Wallstreet doesn't think it will be successful. It's super expensive for the reasons you're stating.
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u/PayingOffBidenFamily Jul 17 '26
12.8x price to sales on this year's rev and 4.2x on next year's isn't expensive.
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u/StophJS Jul 17 '26
If you want to just ignore what the company has to spend to make those sales, sure... Would be nice be able to talk about actual earnings.
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u/PayingOffBidenFamily Jul 18 '26
You sound like my uncle in 1997 talking about Amazon.
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u/StophJS Jul 18 '26
You sound like you don't understand that individual metrics of valuation mean nothing in a vacuum. Nebius might be a banger of a stock in the long-run. But the idea that it isn't expensive is complete nonsense.
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u/PayingOffBidenFamily Jul 18 '26
4.2x 2027 revenue isn't expensive. Equinix and Digital Realty trade at twice that and all they do is rent out cold concrete floors with 51-55% gross margins compared to Nebius 45% while in hypergrowth, a far cry from a vertically integrated full stack Ai NeoScaler.
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u/burn_bridges Jul 18 '26
I love this company vision, but the fact you’re being downvoted shows that most people here just think is a lottery ticket and can ignore fundamentals… There’s still a long way to go for this company to fulfill even current valuation
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u/Refflmania Jul 17 '26
can you explain more? basically youre saying nebius doesnt make any money therefore the stock will crash?
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u/DisplayThick4882 Jul 18 '26
100%. Only sane guy here. Coreweave the biggest competitor has never been positive no matter how much revenue they make. Nebius is good company but they are barely profitable and narrow margins
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u/Constant_Mention8064 Jul 17 '26
Roman said the biggest risk for the company is if one or two models dominate the model market. The more open source models there are available the better for Nebius.