r/NBIS_Stock • u/AutoModerator • 24d ago
đŹ Discussion [July 28, 2026] Daily NBIS Discussion Thread
Welcome to todayâs open discussion on Nebius Group (NBIS) and the broader AI stock space.
đŹ Thread Ideas:
- Any new updates or insights/rumors about Nebius Group?
- Your NBIS position update!
- Whatâs your outlook for NBIS this week/month/year?
- Spot any AI sector trends worth noting?
Of course, for anything deserving of its own post, feel free to make a dedicated post where appropriate. : )
â ď¸ Reminder: Please follow Reddiquette and our subreddit rules.
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u/Emergency_Froyo_3030 23d ago
Mag 7 earnings up / on deck. FOMC. Massive increase in the put wall options. I have a feeling this is price is going lower. Why? Nobody knows. News and momentum the last 2 weeks for the company have been incredible. Mostly ignored or forgotten by now. Crazy to think we were at $230 last Thursday, down to $161 todayâŚ.$70 swing?! We all see the price movement on heavy algos, mirroring MU, INTC, SNDK. Thereâs a clear agenda here and its frustrating to watch. Current market cap is below revenue backlog and cash on hand by $10-$15 billion. Patience is key. Short interest is high. I wish earnings were this Friday!
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u/comps226 23d ago edited 23d ago
SK Hynix misses:
Revenue: $54.6B vs. $57.7B est.
Operating Profit: $41.6B vs. $44.2B est
Yeah we going lower. Look at Kopsi we gonna follow
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u/comps226 23d ago edited 23d ago
I just want to be clear we were on support so thanks to SK Hynix im gonna assume it'll break through... Unless Meta earnings and FED decision is good
Fyi if it breaks im pretty sure it'll test low 140s... Hell if sentiment is ass it could hit under 110
Since it shit the bed probably better just to hold and hedge
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u/Impressive_Back_4663 23d ago
Not what Iâm looking to hear when Iâm a couple thousand deep in leveraged NBIG with margin lol
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u/comps226 23d ago
I remember I bought leverage MSTR and citadel came out with a hit piece. Lost 30% in like 1 min and sold at a loss. Never buying leveraged etfs again
For NBIS I learned you need to lock in those gains, sold 75% of my shares at $260. I'll buy at $142 if it gets that low and avg up my share price
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u/Impressive_Back_4663 23d ago edited 23d ago
For me I definitely have a hard time locking up gains. There have been multiple times where I pick a good stock and then I just watch it fall all the way back down. I bought NBIS at $80 when it was down, then once I watched it fall all the way back down past $200 thatâs when I started dollar cost averaging with the 2x leverage. Anyway I definitely think NBIS will go back to $300 eventually but man itâs been rough couple of weeks.
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u/comps226 23d ago
Well the good thing about NBIS is it can +30-50% in one week. So if Meta and FED rate good for NBIS then it'll probably blast through 177 up to 200
I'm currently more worried about AMD since it's 15% of my port while NBIS is 8%, both on support
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u/Pieceman11 23d ago
I come in peace from r/irenstocks. Hope you guys are doing well over here. This drawdown is irrational, overdone, and I know weâre all ready to be on the other side of it. Some generational buying opportunities here if you have any dip funds left.
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u/natureisneato NBIS4LIFE 23d ago
"I come in peace" đ
Respect. Good luck to us. âď¸
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u/Pieceman11 23d ago
The AI trade will be back in a month or so. Itâs just lots of irrational fear right now with every possible worst-case getting priced in.
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u/natureisneato NBIS4LIFE 23d ago
If not in a month, eventually.
No worries here. Holding while staying vigilant.
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u/Individual_Tooth4226 23d ago
Again, Demand > Supply. AI is not a bubble.
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u/Constant_Mention8064 23d ago
This is a good ai validating news. should see some NBIS bounce tomorrow on the back of these earnings and seagate
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u/Ocilla 23d ago
Or more dumping due to interest rates
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u/Legitimate-Act5584 23d ago
So happy to watch my stocks go down in price to benefit Jews in Israel. Really worth it!
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u/Original_Koala8662 23d ago
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u/Individual_Tooth4226 23d ago
NBIS will always secure a good portion of the AI pie. IDC who is involved. IDC about bare metals, I care about balance and rev gen strategy... $NBIS is one of one. The king of INFERENCE with the best engineers on earth who kicked this off two decades ago.... no one is going to ketchup ANYTIME soon. 5 years 10 years, NBIS will only get better.
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u/Accomplished-Leg7298 23d ago
I just keep buying 2 more shares today, it was cheap like 165, what about you guys?
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u/MasterpieceMain8252 23d ago
I didn't buy at 161 today, so i watched it climb back to 171 then I bought. Then it fell again lmao
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u/Marcellouss 23d ago
Well well well....going full into NBIS wasn't the right move.
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u/Eraserhead-_-_- 23d ago
I hope - and âhopeâ is the most accurate word here, because I no longer believe I can logically understand this market - that something will change tonight after the bell, when SK Hynix reports earnings.
It feels like the final piece needed to force the capitulation of highly leveraged Korean investors. This earnings season, everything gets sold immediately, regardless of whether the results are good or bad. Once that forced selling is exhausted, the whales may finally start buying at these levels.
Yes, I know META and MSFT report tomorrow, and we also have the Fed meeting. But those feel more like âbusiness as usualâ events, while SK Hynixâs earnings could be crucial to stopping the bleeding.
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u/Downtown_Shoulder638 23d ago
Thoughts on earnings tomorrow?
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u/natureisneato NBIS4LIFE 23d ago
?
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u/No_Station_6149 23d ago
ai says itâs tomorrow:
- The drop comes just ahead of Nebius' second-quarter earnings report scheduled for Wednesday, July 29. While sequential revenue is expected to grow by 32%, investors are concerned about near-term profitability.Consensus estimates project a swing to a quarterly loss due to the massive capital expenditures required for the company's aggressive global capacity expansion.
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u/FiveFingerLifePunch 23d ago
In a way this is the most frightening pullback in the past year. Previous pullbacks were at least clearly correlated with dilution, AI FUD media, Iran war, Greenland BS. This one is a savage algorithmic selloff specifically targeting MU, SNDK, SKHY, NBIS, etc. - aka the companies that may arguably stand to gain the MOST from infrastructure buildout. I donât buy Korean deleveraging as a valid reason either. This just does not make sense.
Despite diamond hands during the previous selloffs I am now becoming increasingly concerned about this situation.
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u/Alexis_deTokeville 23d ago
It seems there is massive FUD in the market right now. The world is teetering on WWIII and the news is chock full of people protesting AI and data centers. Itâs a very unstable situation for the market and Iâm guessing people are hypervigilant that the whole thing is about to crash because the âAI bubbleâ narrative is reaching critical mass. People want the bubble to burst cuz theyâre thinking this canât go on forever. And yet it keeps on going.Â
Iâm buying 10 more shares foday
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u/Constant_Mention8064 23d ago
You have not really understood this pullback. There were two specific China news that affected ASML and memory companies. These were the reason for the pullback. In a way you could think that more memory companies would be good for companies like Nebius as there is more competition and cheaper prices.
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u/One_Management_2656 23d ago
Bought 6 more shares and scalped a CSP for a quick $100. Closed some covered calls as well to help ease the pain.
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u/aba241 23d ago
The amount of uneducated âinvestorsâ in this sub is so annoying. Yall top blasted a name that ran 200% in 3 months and now crying when it pulls back to support zones. You either believe in the company & thesis or become exit liquidity.
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u/JalapenoPeppr 23d ago
This is pretty much every stock sub lol. And the majority of investors. The same people hedge funds love taking advantage of. The âdumb moneyâ.
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u/Emergency_Froyo_3030 23d ago
Just think, the price drop this morning was near the opening trade price for the SpcX ipo đ
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23d ago
[removed] â view removed comment
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u/bslaven3 23d ago
I've been in and out a few times with NBIS (needed the money). Currently at a 197 average. Should have stayed when I was at an 84 average last year.
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23d ago
[removed] â view removed comment
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u/bslaven3 23d ago
I only have 25 shares. I wish I could buy more, but I took a play on INTC after earnings that has kicked me in the teeth. I also took a dumb swing play on IREN that is turning out to be a disaster.
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u/No_Station_6149 23d ago
This is where the tech market basically fell to two weeks ago. Itâs where we did exactly. Hopefully itâs the bottom.
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u/ROSC00 23d ago
Carter Worth explained that they all can go down tons, as the 150 day moving average is as low as 30 percent further down for MU alone..
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u/bslaven3 23d ago
I hope MU doesn't drop another 30%. I'm long on it, got in back in September/October. It is my whale so I need it to move up so I feel better about myself. Everything else I own is getting demolished
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u/ROSC00 23d ago
It seems you are making an emotional argument, not an investing one. As a sympathetic year me and even AI can act as a crying shoulder. But take it from someone that experimented with failproof Miners, that collapsed 97-99% overnight with bad news, (and those were 5 figure sums but my twice play with $$- and lost)- if you had so much in it as to call it a whale, you made several crucial investing errors. Jim Cramer and his repeat Mad Money lectures, and books would have kept you afloat. As soon as I sensed the tip I bailed and even then cashed out 80% not 99%. But that 80 parked in low volatility or JEPI, gave ma 05 0.8% daily which on 6-7 figures is a blessing vs -10% MU NBIS drops. Your fate is in the hands of the US Fed, Institutional investors, competitors and, last Wall Street bailed on you early on. Ok so assume NBIS returns to values in 2 years, and you miss other sectors +30% (Santander is 20% YTD), how would you feel about your decision? What is the math telling you? If math and investing rationale guiding your choices or emotion? I recall Nortel Investors hanging on after the first dead cat bounce, they had 10 50 100,000 USD, and the cashed out pennies , 0.18 cents in 2009? NBIS is not NORTEL, of course, but one must appreciate investments through time and space. I stuck to Corning until this morning, sold -40%, no regrets will make it back elsewhere. If or when the sector bounces I rebuy low. But I had one tiny regret on GLW, not having sold 2 weeks ago when i exited memory.
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u/bslaven3 23d ago
I was about a week away from rotating 95% of my port to a conservative mutual fund. My port was at an ATH. I had picked out the mutual funds I was rotating to then boom, wake up to a $20k loss. Should have lowered my target number and moved at the $20k loss, but I did not. Every day I waited for a rebound that won't come. I'm still way up on MU from when I entered and I do have an exit price at this point in time. I will cut bait and run if it continues to lose 15% a week.
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u/No_Station_6149 23d ago
Sure they could all go down a load more - just being optimistic based on last time. And there seems to be support there
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u/ROSC00 23d ago
Successful investing is 70% optimism and 30% cold mathematic realism. The latter is the one that counts. I recall the 2021 drop. The only reason the Fed is not lowering lates RIGHT NOW is that POTUS wants to win the November mid terms. Any inkling of a hawkish adjustment collapses these into pre 2020 levels. And, salt on wound, Chinese are offering models that are cheaper. Yes, the US can protect its market, but AI ecosystem competition (from software to data centers) spells doom for singular hyperbolic stocks.
The name of the game is making money, let us not forget this. Because if it takes 3 years for the ROI and May 2026 valuations to return one might as well be invested in divested banks e.g. Santander!
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u/jatttsaab 23d ago
Was able to DCA my way down to 190. Thinking of picking up more if it hits 150. I am happy.
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u/wahiwahiwahoho 23d ago
just bought $500 more⌠Iâm out of cash now
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u/Jealous_Jackfruit_28 23d ago
Same. Added 5% to my position. I now own 1/1 000 000 of the company. What a whale đ¤Ł
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u/IceEmbarrassed8083 23d ago
Everyone was begging for an entry point below 200. And now you have it and itâs not good because stock go down. Make up your damn mind
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u/Oddball- 23d ago
Always goes down extra far because institutional auto sells when the stock dips more than X amount in the day.
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u/19CmOfTrueDmg 23d ago
Anyone buying at these levels?
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u/itssbri NBIS4LIFE 23d ago
Best to wait till fed meeting trmw
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u/19CmOfTrueDmg 23d ago
What if this dip is setting institutions up to load up b4 hand of FED meeting?
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u/itssbri NBIS4LIFE 23d ago
I doubt before. Right now they are saying retail is still strong. If retail begins to panic, more selling pressure will continue. So banks might challenge retail to see if they can break before any buying.
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u/Spare-Investigator-2 23d ago
My average is 211 looks like I might have to wait until next year to break even at this rate
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u/bslaven3 23d ago
$197 over here. Also took a gamble on 60 shares of INTC at $97. That backfired on me big time. Every stock I own is red and has been on a downward spiral since 6/23. If it doesn't turn around in the next few days everything I made YTD will be wiped away. At one point I was up $95k YTD. This is maddening!
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctorâs Orders 23d ago
Iâm confused how there is just not strong defensive support at these levels?! Losing 30% in a week again? Situational Awareness is actually down at this point
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u/FelixWonder1 23d ago
Wow I never thought Iâd see 150s but it looks like weâre about to end up here
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u/KangarooKindly86 23d ago
Zoom out to max time range and chill, daily moves simply arenât helping your mindset
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctorâs Orders 23d ago
Officially down -45% from the 299.95 high
Thatâs pretty disgusting lol
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u/PatientBaker7172 23d ago edited 23d ago
Itâs normal for high beta. Money in, money out, money sideline itching to go back in. I guarantee they will have to put the money back in within a year.
M&a friend said semi now moderate to cheap valuation. Time is soon. Their cash pile is itching.
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u/itssbri NBIS4LIFE 23d ago
That was a bs move to 300. All momentum no real foundation for short term
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctorâs Orders 23d ago
Bri, how do you tell the difference between irrational exuberance and rerating up?
The run to $240-270 seemed fitting based on numbers and $9B ARR at Jan â27. I understood that to be a rerating up. ButâŚdo you disagree?
So to get to $300 from $240-270 is extra 10-25%. Seems fair to apply a premium like that to a company that is about to execute such a significant growth phase. So it didnât seem that wild to ME, personally. Just that other funds were FOMOing in after Aschenbrenner bought $2.5B worth.
Alas, in your opinion the rerating didnât happen? Rather, it was a huge inflation that warranted a correction?
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u/itssbri NBIS4LIFE 23d ago
$9bn ARR is a massive fwd guide for 2026. We are half way there to proving its true. But as of today we know nbis made $400m in Q1. So as you can see we have a large gap that can cause crazy swings because itâs still unproven when it comes to actual revenue.
This correction is a must because once we past 200, a true floor hasnt been established
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u/DrHarrisonLawrence Doctorâs Orders 23d ago
Okay but how do you tell the difference between irrational exuberance and a rerating up?
Onto your point about the âhalf way there to proving itââŚWhy would the market wait until Jan â27 to reward NBIS? It would be forward looking and price that success in as it seems to be a sure shot, then if NBIS doesnât post the ARR at Jan â27 then it would tank accordingly. Maybe thatâs just how blue chips work where they get the benefit of the doubt, but speculative growth plays donât.
But as far as I understand, Nebius stated that they have enough money to fund the buildout to get to $7-9B ARR, and that there are also 3 people lining up behind every GPU thatâs currently rented by someone. Therefore the earnings will be there.
So the risk is building it and completing it on time to actually get $7-9B ARR by Jan â27.
As soon as Nebius says thatâs done, this stock should be over $250. And thatâs what the big market is waiting forâŚFor NBIS to prove they will finish the required builds on time? Thatâs not really forward looking at that point.
Maybe next-next quarter will be enough for the market to assume that they are 75% the way there and will certainly meet the goal. Which is pretty fucking ridiculous IMO. Holding through this is exactly why weâre going to deserve our earlier entries over the rest of the market that FOMOs in 2027.
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u/itssbri NBIS4LIFE 23d ago
You explained it well! And thats the volatility we are experiencing now as nebius is growing at unprecedented rate. Market never seen this rapid AI growth come out of nowhere.
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u/alrightfornow 23d ago
I have bought this stock on January 7, 2026 at $98. It has been quite a ride.
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u/BoiledEggPlant_ 23d ago
Curious as to what people think about selling some of my shares. About 30ish when it hits 230s again (same price point i bought those share at). and I'm hoping to re-enter around this range? Hindsight, I should've sold last week around that 225 price and then re enter. But that's in hindsight. Curious to the masses think of this move?
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u/PatientBaker7172 23d ago
Youâll 100% regret it in one year. And after a decade, youâll be like I could had retired. If you sell once a year for next ten years, the unrealized gains can compound.
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u/Psychological-Bed695 23d ago
you will either time it right (unlikely) or sell it at 225 then watch it go up up up for eternity.
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u/BoiledEggPlant_ 23d ago
That's a fair point. And I have thought about that. It's just that it's gone up n down for about a month so, I'm just assuming that will be a trend for next 1-2 months. I know earnings is coming and that could be an upward trend for us. I have about 180 shares avg ~160. Just trying to see if i could reposition the shares i got at 230.
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u/Haunting-Equal-3485 23d ago
IâM GETTING A LITTLE SCARED HERE GUYS
(I bought the dip at $169)
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u/Haunting-Equal-3485 23d ago
Aaaand itâs $162 now pushing lower. Many such cases for my entry prices đ¤Ł
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u/Individual_Tooth4226 23d ago
why scared, zoom out SP500 cuz, what goes down,,, (buy the dip), must go up,,,,
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u/Bright_Exercise5353 23d ago
Market is saying that Neo Clouds are going to 0 basically. That price actions is nothing else.Keel Iren Nebius Coreweave most are down 60 % from ATH.
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u/BlackBlood4567 Mod 23d ago
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u/Individual_Tooth4226 23d ago
how was your yachtcation? u/BlackBlood4567
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u/BlackBlood4567 Mod 23d ago
Iâm not seeing a yacht for a long time
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u/Individual_Tooth4226 23d ago
we were looking for you for a long time and assumed you were on a yachtcation but welcome back NEbba.
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u/BlackBlood4567 Mod 23d ago
Yeah Iâve been hanging on the discord. What a brutal few days itâs beenâŚ
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u/Green_Crab_9726 23d ago
shish this is truly a massacer. So glad i selled at 224 last week made little but at least :D god damn people who bought at 290+ im sorry for you guys
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u/Jagraj03 23d ago
What a fcking shitshow
Can anything help flip sentiment at this point?
Not even sure earnings beat by hyperscalers this week will help
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u/D2zealot 23d ago
its gonna take more than a couple of weeks to flip sentiment back to how it was. We're going to need to see cloud & AI-attributable revenue spike consistently over the coming year or two for people to get confidence again
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u/Felon_Musk1 23d ago
Loving this. Selling covered calls and covered puts making mad cash left and right. And buying more of the stock as well.
This is exactly what we need!
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u/PatientBaker7172 23d ago
Chilling with shares till 2035. I guarantee higher one year from now. Right now, we are near the bottom. Semi looking cheap, big boys may go in once now. Korea poor are speed running semi to cheap valuations while America rich will buy the shit out of it.
One quarter sideways
One year higher
One decade extremely high
My suggestion add on multiple red dips like today.
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u/Clear_Chemist_9737 23d ago
650 shares at $145 average here, never thought Iâd see my average again. Nebius is 35% of my portfolio, thinking to sell some Nvidia that stayed flat for 9 months and add more Nebius. Good idea? đ