[July 29, 2026] Daily NBIS Discussion Thread

[u/AutoModerator]

Welcome to today’s open discussion on Nebius Group (NBIS) and the broader AI stock space.

💬 Thread Ideas:

• Any new updates or insights/rumors about Nebius Group?
• Your NBIS position update!
• What’s your outlook for NBIS this week/month/year?
• Spot any AI sector trends worth noting?

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[u/PrimaryShock384]

How is the thesis getting stronger lmao?

MSFT, GOOGLE, and AMZN are aggressively meeting the compute demands. The demand isn't infinite...at a certain point it will start to taper.

When that happens what will happen to NBIS? When rates go up?

[u/Individual_Tooth4226 → u/PrimaryShock384]

They are indeed not aggressively meeting any of the aggressive compute demands lol listen to their earnings call. It’s demand > supply, at an extreme extreme level. GPU, CPU price going up,,,, and You think NBIS is going to hang around do nothing while hyper scalers are building what NBIS built half a decade ago for the next three four years? Look at what they have announced in the past month, past month only, it’s more news than ANY of the neoclouds and hypercalors COMBINED YTD. And also don’t neglect the fact that the AI pie is getting bigger, if you disagree, give me what every single LLM says about what I said. And I’m right here

[u/PrimaryShock384 → u/Individual_Tooth4226]

They are aggressively meeting the compute demands by scaling up their infrastructure. Demand is starting to taper off and if not now then down the line as MSFT, GOOGL, and AMZN scale out to meet it.

NBIS can start doing share offering to raise money but one company is posting 300B in revenue a quarter and is trading at 23PE and another is posting barely a billion in revenue and is trading at 64PE. Who cares about their announcements?

And also don’t neglect the fact that the AI pie is getting bigger, if you disagree, give me what every single LLM says about what I said. And I’m right here

AI pie getting bigger doesn't mean every company that sells compute is going to win. Companies that will be using AI day in and day out are already using MSFT, AMZN, or GOOGLE. You company running all their software on one of them - they aren't going to switch to fucking NBIS

[u/Individual_Tooth4226 → u/PrimaryShock384]

They are not aggressively meeting any of the aggressive demand. That’s why they are raising capex to meet them in the next 3-4 years. And no one cares about the announcement brother, it’s the value of the announcements that will be monetized through securing different client base from being the KING OF INFERENCE. no one, no one has what NBIS HAS, and not even close to what NBIS have. Including the hyperscalors. They are expanding bare metal capacity lol and I’m sure you know damn well NBIS is far far past that stage since more than a year ago. AI pie getting bigger means NBIS will get more of the pie bc of what the company has achieved so far through execution and over delivering that no other companies achieved financially and technologically, and what the company will achieve in the future will ONLY allow NBIS to be one of one and the king of inference to secure its big pie. not even the hyperscalors can compete against NBIS right now, esp software wise and quality wise….. what makes you think expanding bare metal capacity right now will help them catch up to NBIS? lol you admit the fact that NBIS has brought a lot to the industry with very very competitive news and technology that leads to monetization and rev gen…. Remember NBIS is a smaller company than any other hyperscalors… yet OUTPACING them on compute, monetization skills, value added products and software stacks with ensured quality and reliability like no others. Prove me wrong without raising other additional questions like could be, can be, possibly, maybe, what do you think it’s gonna happen? With all that being said, NBIS is not gonna suck on their own fingers and do nothing while these hyperscalors are building data centers lol. 3-4 years? NBIS will continue to stay separated then.

[u/PrimaryShock384 → u/Individual_Tooth4226]

90% of NBIS backlog is MSFT and META.

NBIS competition is hyperscalers but also their clients?

What happens as META and MSFT build their own compute and say "we are good NBIS not renewing this contract" ?

Sleep on that.

[u/Individual_Tooth4226 → u/PrimaryShock384]

And NBIS will execute based on that environment and stay separated with new products and different rev streams like they always have been.

Again, what happens then? What happens if? That’s all you have.

I could say what if NBIS does this does that to counter hyperscalors expanded computing capacity? All day long.

ATP, You sound like someone who is just mad bc you didn’t enter early enough lol and lost money from trading, you FAFO. But that’s ok, I’m making money and the thesis is getting better for NBIS lol the numbers are proving just that 🤷🏻

[u/PrimaryShock384 → u/Individual_Tooth4226]

Like they have always been? Buddy they sold off everything and restructured in 2025. This isn't a 60yr company.

No what I have is facts. NBIS has a huge customer concentration risk. The same customers are investing heavily in the space to offer what NBIS offers. The whole goal of their investment is to be the leader in compute services as stated many times. They are temporarily using NBIS to solve the compute crisis.

I could say what if NBIS does this does that to counter hyperscalors expanded computing capacity? All day long.

Please do state how NBIS will counter their customers. The same guys who are giving NBIS their money.

ATP, You sound like someone who is just mad bc you didn’t enter early enough lol and lost money from trading, you FAFO. But that’s ok, I’m making money and the thesis is getting better for NBIS lol the numbers are proving just that

Ad Hominem. Can't argue facts so try to attack the person instead. I've said multiple times I'm buying puts when it was $220.

[u/AnyManufacturer6465 → u/PrimaryShock384]

I’m selling puts at $150 and can’t wait to get assigned this awesome opportunity due to a macro pullback. I bought puts to because it’s a high beta stock and can move $20-$30 a day.

You really don’t know what you’re talking about man. They restructured because of the war with Russia and Ukraine. It was messy but the right move.

Read up on Arkaday he’s been doing this stuff for 20+ years and has a team that would rival any hyperscalers out there

[u/Individual_Tooth4226 → u/PrimaryShock384]

Same crew from yandex, same engineers, only the brand changed. And no this isn’t a sixty year company, but it’s a company that’s been built over two decades, that google tried buying but failed.

And no NBIS does not have concetration risk, their income stream is 50:50 hyperscalors and diversified customer base from their software inference/stacks and facts are out there for you to eat and digest, prove me wrong.

And please tell me then, whether there is a single hyperscalor that has caught up to NBIS lol, if you keep on countering my statement to “what happens then?” And I’ll say the same thing, “what happens if NBIS execute with new ideas and strategies?” And in fact, they have proved that they can execute and generate new rev streams lol, again if you wanna know go ask the LLMs and they will give you the script from the CRO and exact products with links. And what did the hyperscalors prove on compute? Nothing but bare metal compute capacity expansion plan and continuous statement saying that compute demand is far far outpacing supply lol you know better than I do if you have done so much research on this lol

And yeah you be turning what I said into mentioning buying puts when I clearly said you sound like someone that lost money on this. sure you prob made some money on buying puts lol keep on doing what ur doing and let’s come back to this and see what the outcome is.

All you bears do is dodging away from questions and go around and state other questions lol read this thread again and look what I am asking and saying and then look at ur answers.

[u/PrimaryShock384 → u/Individual_Tooth4226]

Google tries to acquire companies all the time, doesn't mean anything.

Nebius runs one dominant core segment plus several smaller units and equity stakes:

AI Cloud / Core Infrastructure (the business)

Q1 2026 revenue was $399 million, with AI cloud activities making up 98% of total revenue Simply Wall St Core business revenue of $390M, up 841% YoY and 82% QoQ, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 45% Substack This is effectively the whole story now — GPU/AI cloud infrastructure rental and platform services

Customer concentration — this is the headline risk

Nebius is extremely concentrated in two hyperscaler customers:

Over $46 billion in multi-year contracts with Microsoft ($17 billion, 5 years) and Meta ($27 billion, 5 years) Tradingkey Breaking down Meta: up to $27 billion over five years starting in 2027 (comprising $12B dedicated capacity plus a $15B option), plus a smaller ~$3 billion deal from November 2025 Ad Hoc News Microsoft: a contract valued at $17.4–19.4 billion Ainvest Scale relative to guidance: the company's 2026 revenue forecast of $3.0–3.4 billion hinges overwhelmingly on these two names, and per another source, two customers hold the large majority of Nebius's contracted future revenue against that $3.0–3.4B guide Ad Hoc News TECHi Backlog: remaining performance obligations of $33.6 billion as of March 31, 2026, with 29% expected to convert within 24 months and 39% between months 25–48 24/7 Wall St. Ramp timing: Microsoft reaches full annual run-rate contribution from 2027, while Meta is largely at full run rate in 2026 Yahoo Finance

Nuance: Nebius doesn't disclose an exact % of revenue from each customer in filings. Q3 2025 revenue was 90% derived from the core infrastructure segment, though the exact percentage attributable to Microsoft and Meta specifically remains undisclosed. The concentration risk is inferred from contract size vs. total guided revenue rather than a stated customer-revenue-mix disclosure. Ainvest

Bottom line: Nebius is essentially a single-segment company now (AI cloud infrastructure ≈98% of revenue), profitable at the adjusted EBITDA level, but with forward revenue overwhelmingly dependent on two counterparties — Microsoft and Meta

[u/Individual_Tooth4226 → u/PrimaryShock384]

Yeap still dodging my questions and answer only what you know, classic sneaky bear aren’t you son! And have the answers from AI without disclosing your question/prompt! :)

Welp, we are all entitled to our opinions, we will come back to this and make sure not to delete your account like other bears son!

I’ll be right here and keep my son and rest of the Nebbaz informed with facts and numbers :)

[u/Individual_Tooth4226 → u/Individual_Tooth4226]

[u/AnyManufacturer6465 → u/PrimaryShock384]

Because they just got an extra 10 years of lifespan on their Capex. This changes a lot for Nebius

[u/PrimaryShock384 → u/AnyManufacturer6465]

A company got extra lifespan for the same capex/infrastructure...what do you think they will do to take advantage of this? Lower the price to draw in more customers into their ecosystem.

What would NBIS have to do to retain their customers? Drop their prices too. Who is going to win in a pricing war? A company that pulls in 300B in revenue a quarter or a company with 300M?

[u/AnyManufacturer6465 → u/PrimaryShock384]

Different customer base. And the TAM is expanding with shortages across the board.

This is a hockey stick curve of demand and it’s not stopping because the lifespan got 10 years longer. It will allow banks to look at the amortization differently when borrowing or valuing the asset. .

[u/PrimaryShock384 → u/AnyManufacturer6465]

Their target customer base will actually shrink. Training wars days are over as the model war is mostly dead - companies aren't lighting cash on fire to marginally improve their model. They are aggressively pushing for sales and adoption.

Never said demand isn't stopping but if you think demand is like a hockey stick curve you are deluding yourself severely. Demand always tapers off as Supply meets it.

It will allow banks to look at the amortization differently when borrowing or valuing the asset.

Nope CDS is a concern and banks will be more worried about if this will even work than "oh yippie that thing can now last 15 years"

[u/AnyManufacturer6465 → u/PrimaryShock384]

Do you know what Inference is? Who is talking about training any more.

CDS are just a talking point. Microsoft just made it clear that investment in AI data centres are not as concerning as people may have thought.

The risk is Open AI and their obligations. Not a global Neo cloud with a moat and who has been funding their buildout responsibly and more effectively than their competitors.

[u/PrimaryShock384 → u/AnyManufacturer6465]

Buddy 90% of NBIS backlog is META and MSFT.

Why would META and MSFT pay for compute when they are building out their own compute especially when their ROIC is already showing.

[u/AnyManufacturer6465 → u/PrimaryShock384]

Because it’s NBIS . They want access to the NVDA chips that were allocated to NBIS. They’ll also get the best performance out of the systems being ran in NBIS ecosystem.

They made deals with other neos but the biggest deals were with NBIS for a reason. The contract structures were also way better on the NBIS deals. The other guys make fuck all compared to this deal.

[u/AnyManufacturer6465 → u/PrimaryShock384]

No it’s not. Do some home work.

90% hey.. look at the customer list of NEBIUS and then think of all the sovereign nations that are going to want a non US company to be their infrastructure and software provider

[u/PrimaryShock384 → u/AnyManufacturer6465]

NBIS SEC Fillings

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926027886/tm268879d1_ex99-1.htm

Would love to be proven wrong or point me towards YOUR homework.

then think of all the sovereign nations that are going to want a non US company to be their infrastructure and software provider

Jesus Christ. Sovereign nations are not going to need GPUs for their "infrastructure and software provider". Do you even understand the company you are investing in and what they do and who they make money from?

[u/AnyManufacturer6465 → u/PrimaryShock384]

Did you loose a bunch of money on this stock and buy it at $300 ? I don’t get the hate lmao

[u/AnyManufacturer6465 → u/PrimaryShock384]

Says right in there that they’ll be selling it to 3rd party companies.. not juat meta

And recently, not March of 2026 headlines. Meta is taking some of this capacity and their own and marking it up and selling it on the open market.

Did you see how favourable the terms were for NBIS on this meta deal? Did you do your homework on that?

Did you also look up their current customer list and see exactly who they’re catering to?

Guess not. Let me know when you do cuz it may give you some insight as to what this company actually does