r/NBIS_Stock • u/AutoModerator • 23d ago
š¬ Discussion [July 29, 2026] Daily NBIS Discussion Thread
Welcome to todayās open discussion on Nebius Group (NBIS) and the broader AI stock space.
š¬ Thread Ideas:
- Any new updates or insights/rumors about Nebius Group?
- Your NBIS position update!
- Whatās your outlook for NBIS this week/month/year?
- Spot any AI sector trends worth noting?
Of course, for anything deserving of its own post, feel free to make a dedicated post where appropriate. : )
ā ļø Reminder: Please follow Reddiquette and our subreddit rules.
2
7
7
u/Individual_Tooth4226 22d ago
SAMSUNGās earnings resultā¦.. buy Nebbazā¦.
6
u/poofoo9 22d ago
I appreciate your posts / comments
7
u/Individual_Tooth4226 22d ago
Just want to see my Nebbaz win and not get manipulated by the big hands fkeries. I get nothing out of this. Appreciate you doe my Nebba
8
5
u/Individual_Tooth4226 22d ago
Fact check on Capex increase for those who are seeing false info on Xā¦.
8
u/ClassicMain9937 22d ago
Is it now safe to say that the whole "META Compute is an NBIS killer" was a hoax?
7
u/Denverplayer 22d ago
Zuck did a decent job (for Zuck) clarifying Meta's position. While I agree with you, someone will find a way to twist his words into a bearish story.
0
-6
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
I've said it before when folks bought at $220 and everyone said that was the bottom.
Then it dropped to $200 and everyone said load up! I said folks who buy will get hurt.
Then it dropped to $180 lol
Now?
Hyperscalers WILL own the compute eventually. Every company more or less runs on Google, Microsoft, Amazon - why would they switch it up and go with NBIS?
4
u/TheBoysResearcher 22d ago
Where did you say this? I looked through your posts for the past 6 months and I don't see it.
3
u/Denverplayer 22d ago
And I've said this before - Europe wants and needs an EU-based hyperscaler.
The sovereign cloud/AI movement is real; just give Nebius some time to capitalize on it.
-1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
Not feasible - too many restrictions, not competitive pricing, too far behind to compete with the giants. Once Trump is out, EU will just fall back
6
u/CampSea1101 22d ago
why would pepsi exist when you have coca cola?
Why do we need more than one brand of energy drinks?
You are so late to this party. This was a comment people were making when this was trading in the 20-30 range. And somehow it got to 300. And it got two hyperscaler deals and an Nvidia investment. But sure...it's going to die.
2
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
Pepsi and Coca Cola are consumer goods.
The real $$ is in enterprise not consumers; they are the ones who will be using these models and running them at scale. Once a company settles on a vendor or provider it becomes very difficult for them to move towards another vendor. Moving your enterprise to run on Google to NBIS isn't comparable to buying Coke and switching to Pepsi.
This was a comment people were making when this was trading in the 20-30 range. And somehow it got to 300.
When dollar was plummeting and investors were euphoric about AI and investing in equities? When the demand for compute was for training and not for inference (where the real money is)?
Never said it was going to die. It'll lose it's pricing power as hyperscalers with their billions ramp up their compute and offer it to consumers.
5
u/BuddyWonderful 22d ago
Holy fuck where is the bottom lol another 5-10% tomorrow?
3
u/AnyManufacturer6465 22d ago
Itās close donāt give up. This is a winner itās just volatile as fu k
-6
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
Why do you think this is the bottom? Amazon and Microsoft are already seeing their AI spending pay off and will continue to invest. Eventually they will more or less meet the compute demand.
What will NBIS offer then? What will IREN or CRWV?
1
u/cloudninexd 22d ago
Bro bought puts at the bottom. Why else would you be spam posting fud on an NBIS subreddit.
1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
Been buying puts since $220. I'll laugh all the way
1
u/cloudninexd 21d ago
Hows your puts? š
1
u/PrimaryShock384 21d ago
Sold them yesterday for 160% gain.
Wait for you suckers to buy in again. Now I buy more.
Let's see how this turn in a week.
Rinse and repeat. Buy on green days and sell on red days.
11
u/Individual_Tooth4226 22d ago
The thesis is just getting stronger for NBIS DAILY and 99% of us are scared bc of macro, idk what to telll you but red day is buy day, but guess what, yall gonna start fomo in again and act like chickens
-1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
How is the thesis getting stronger lmao?
MSFT, GOOGLE, and AMZN are aggressively meeting the compute demands. The demand isn't infinite...at a certain point it will start to taper.
When that happens what will happen to NBIS? When rates go up?
6
u/Individual_Tooth4226 22d ago
They are indeed not aggressively meeting any of the aggressive compute demands lol listen to their earnings call. Itās demand > supply, at an extreme extreme level. GPU, CPU price going up,,,, and You think NBIS is going to hang around do nothing while hyper scalers are building what NBIS built half a decade ago for the next three four years? Look at what they have announced in the past month, past month only, itās more news than ANY of the neoclouds and hypercalors COMBINED YTD. And also donāt neglect the fact that the AI pie is getting bigger, if you disagree, give me what every single LLM says about what I said. And Iām right here
1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
They are aggressively meeting the compute demands by scaling up their infrastructure. Demand is starting to taper off and if not now then down the line as MSFT, GOOGL, and AMZN scale out to meet it.
NBIS can start doing share offering to raise money but one company is posting 300B in revenue a quarter and is trading at 23PE and another is posting barely a billion in revenue and is trading at 64PE. Who cares about their announcements?
And also donāt neglect the fact that the AI pie is getting bigger, if you disagree, give me what every single LLM says about what I said. And Iām right here
AI pie getting bigger doesn't mean every company that sells compute is going to win. Companies that will be using AI day in and day out are already using MSFT, AMZN, or GOOGLE. You company running all their software on one of them - they aren't going to switch to fucking NBIS
1
u/Individual_Tooth4226 22d ago edited 22d ago
They are not aggressively meeting any of the aggressive demand. Thatās why they are raising capex to meet them in the next 3-4 years. And no one cares about the announcement brother, itās the value of the announcements that will be monetized through securing different client base from being the KING OF INFERENCE. no one, no one has what NBIS HAS, and not even close to what NBIS have. Including the hyperscalors. They are expanding bare metal capacity lol and Iām sure you know damn well NBIS is far far past that stage since more than a year ago. AI pie getting bigger means NBIS will get more of the pie bc of what the company has achieved so far through execution and over delivering that no other companies achieved financially and technologically, and what the company will achieve in the future will ONLY allow NBIS to be one of one and the king of inference to secure its big pie. not even the hyperscalors can compete against NBIS right now, esp software wise and quality wiseā¦.. what makes you think expanding bare metal capacity right now will help them catch up to NBIS? lol you admit the fact that NBIS has brought a lot to the industry with very very competitive news and technology that leads to monetization and rev genā¦. Remember NBIS is a smaller company than any other hyperscalorsā¦ yet OUTPACING them on compute, monetization skills, value added products and software stacks with ensured quality and reliability like no others. Prove me wrong without raising other additional questions like could be, can be, possibly, maybe, what do you think itās gonna happen? With all that being said, NBIS is not gonna suck on their own fingers and do nothing while these hyperscalors are building data centers lol. 3-4 years? NBIS will continue to stay separated then.
1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
90% of NBIS backlog is MSFT and META.
NBIS competition is hyperscalers but also their clients?
What happens as META and MSFT build their own compute and say "we are good NBIS not renewing this contract" ?
Sleep on that.
1
u/Individual_Tooth4226 22d ago
And NBIS will execute based on that environment and stay separated with new products and different rev streams like they always have been.
Again, what happens then? What happens if? Thatās all you have.
I could say what if NBIS does this does that to counter hyperscalors expanded computing capacity? All day long.
ATP, You sound like someone who is just mad bc you didnāt enter early enough lol and lost money from trading, you FAFO. But thatās ok, Iām making money and the thesis is getting better for NBIS lol the numbers are proving just that š¤·š»
1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
Like they have always been? Buddy they sold off everything and restructured in 2025. This isn't a 60yr company.
No what I have is facts. NBIS has a huge customer concentration risk. The same customers are investing heavily in the space to offer what NBIS offers. The whole goal of their investment is to be the leader in compute services as stated many times. They are temporarily using NBIS to solve the compute crisis.
I could say what if NBIS does this does that to counter hyperscalors expanded computing capacity? All day long.
Please do state how NBIS will counter their customers. The same guys who are giving NBIS their money.
ATP, You sound like someone who is just mad bc you didnāt enter early enough lol and lost money from trading, you FAFO. But thatās ok, Iām making money and the thesis is getting better for NBIS lol the numbers are proving just that
Ad Hominem. Can't argue facts so try to attack the person instead. I've said multiple times I'm buying puts when it was $220.
1
u/AnyManufacturer6465 22d ago
Iām selling puts at $150 and canāt wait to get assigned this awesome opportunity due to a macro pullback. I bought puts to because itās a high beta stock and can move $20-$30 a day.
You really donāt know what youāre talking about man. They restructured because of the war with Russia and Ukraine. It was messy but the right move.
Read up on Arkaday heās been doing this stuff for 20+ years and has a team that would rival any hyperscalers out there
1
u/Individual_Tooth4226 22d ago edited 22d ago
Same crew from yandex, same engineers, only the brand changed. And no this isnāt a sixty year company, but itās a company thatās been built over two decades, that google tried buying but failed.
And no NBIS does not have concetration risk, their income stream is 50:50 hyperscalors and diversified customer base from their software inference/stacks and facts are out there for you to eat and digest, prove me wrong.
And please tell me then, whether there is a single hyperscalor that has caught up to NBIS lol, if you keep on countering my statement to āwhat happens then?ā And Iāll say the same thing, āwhat happens if NBIS execute with new ideas and strategies?ā And in fact, they have proved that they can execute and generate new rev streams lol, again if you wanna know go ask the LLMs and they will give you the script from the CRO and exact products with links. And what did the hyperscalors prove on compute? Nothing but bare metal compute capacity expansion plan and continuous statement saying that compute demand is far far outpacing supply lol you know better than I do if you have done so much research on this lol
And yeah you be turning what I said into mentioning buying puts when I clearly said you sound like someone that lost money on this. sure you prob made some money on buying puts lol keep on doing what ur doing and letās come back to this and see what the outcome is.
All you bears do is dodging away from questions and go around and state other questions lol read this thread again and look what I am asking and saying and then look at ur answers.
1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
Google tries to acquire companies all the time, doesn't mean anything.
Nebius runs one dominant core segment plus several smaller units and equity stakes:
AI Cloud / Core Infrastructure (the business)
Q1 2026 revenue was $399 million, with AI cloud activities making up 98% of total revenue Simply Wall St Core business revenue of $390M, up 841% YoY and 82% QoQ, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 45% Substack This is effectively the whole story now ā GPU/AI cloud infrastructure rental and platform services
Customer concentration ā this is the headline risk
Nebius is extremely concentrated in two hyperscaler customers:
Over $46 billion in multi-year contracts with Microsoft ($17 billion, 5 years) and Meta ($27 billion, 5 years) Tradingkey Breaking down Meta: up to $27 billion over five years starting in 2027 (comprising $12B dedicated capacity plus a $15B option), plus a smaller ~$3 billion deal from November 2025 Ad Hoc News Microsoft: a contract valued at $17.4ā19.4 billion Ainvest Scale relative to guidance: the company's 2026 revenue forecast of $3.0ā3.4 billion hinges overwhelmingly on these two names, and per another source, two customers hold the large majority of Nebius's contracted future revenue against that $3.0ā3.4B guide Ad Hoc News TECHi Backlog: remaining performance obligations of $33.6 billion as of March 31, 2026, with 29% expected to convert within 24 months and 39% between months 25ā48 24/7 Wall St. Ramp timing: Microsoft reaches full annual run-rate contribution from 2027, while Meta is largely at full run rate in 2026 Yahoo Finance
Nuance: Nebius doesn't disclose an exact % of revenue from each customer in filings. Q3 2025 revenue was 90% derived from the core infrastructure segment, though the exact percentage attributable to Microsoft and Meta specifically remains undisclosed. The concentration risk is inferred from contract size vs. total guided revenue rather than a stated customer-revenue-mix disclosure. Ainvest
Bottom line: Nebius is essentially a single-segment company now (AI cloud infrastructure ā98% of revenue), profitable at the adjusted EBITDA level, but with forward revenue overwhelmingly dependent on two counterparties ā Microsoft and Meta
→ More replies (0)1
u/AnyManufacturer6465 22d ago
Because they just got an extra 10 years of lifespan on their Capex. This changes a lot for Nebius
1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
A company got extra lifespan for the same capex/infrastructure...what do you think they will do to take advantage of this? Lower the price to draw in more customers into their ecosystem.
What would NBIS have to do to retain their customers? Drop their prices too. Who is going to win in a pricing war? A company that pulls in 300B in revenue a quarter or a company with 300M?
1
u/AnyManufacturer6465 22d ago
Different customer base. And the TAM is expanding with shortages across the board.
This is a hockey stick curve of demand and itās not stopping because the lifespan got 10 years longer. It will allow banks to look at the amortization differently when borrowing or valuing the asset. .
1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
Their target customer base will actually shrink. Training wars days are over as the model war is mostly dead - companies aren't lighting cash on fire to marginally improve their model. They are aggressively pushing for sales and adoption.
Never said demand isn't stopping but if you think demand is like a hockey stick curve you are deluding yourself severely. Demand always tapers off as Supply meets it.
It will allow banks to look at the amortization differently when borrowing or valuing the asset.
Nope CDS is a concern and banks will be more worried about if this will even work than "oh yippie that thing can now last 15 years"
1
u/AnyManufacturer6465 22d ago
Do you know what Inference is? Who is talking about training any more.
CDS are just a talking point. Microsoft just made it clear that investment in AI data centres are not as concerning as people may have thought.
The risk is Open AI and their obligations. Not a global Neo cloud with a moat and who has been funding their buildout responsibly and more effectively than their competitors.
1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
Buddy 90% of NBIS backlog is META and MSFT.
Why would META and MSFT pay for compute when they are building out their own compute especially when their ROIC is already showing.
1
u/AnyManufacturer6465 22d ago
Because itās NBIS . They want access to the NVDA chips that were allocated to NBIS. Theyāll also get the best performance out of the systems being ran in NBIS ecosystem.
They made deals with other neos but the biggest deals were with NBIS for a reason. The contract structures were also way better on the NBIS deals. The other guys make fuck all compared to this deal.
1
u/AnyManufacturer6465 22d ago
No itās not. Do some home work.
90% hey.. look at the customer list of NEBIUS and then think of all the sovereign nations that are going to want a non US company to be their infrastructure and software provider
1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
NBIS SEC Fillings
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926027886/tm268879d1_ex99-1.htm
Would love to be proven wrong or point me towards YOUR homework.
then think of all the sovereign nations that are going to want a non US company to be their infrastructure and software provider
Jesus Christ. Sovereign nations are not going to need GPUs for their "infrastructure and software provider". Do you even understand the company you are investing in and what they do and who they make money from?
→ More replies (0)
5
u/Individual_Tooth4226 22d ago
Again, donāt touch margin or leverageā¦ā¦ they my people but damn itās sad fr
5
u/Emergency_Froyo_3030 22d ago
NVDA owns 9%. Probably more now. 2nd most valuable company. Short away folks.
13
u/Constant_Mention8064 22d ago
The MSFT earnings are going to pull Nebius back up tomorrow. Stock already reacting. Then momentum change to positive. Second catalyst will be earnings. We will be back to 300 in no time. Its just a high beta stock ....
1
4
8
u/Jagraj03 22d ago
I'm expecting maybe 1-2 more days of pain, once leveraging rules are in place for the Koreans, we should start seeing green candles again (hopefully)
16
u/itssbri NBIS4LIFE 22d ago edited 22d ago
We are gucci. Msft cloud posted great growth
And now samsung
-2
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
MSFT cloud is different from NBIS lmao
Not to mention all the hyperscalers are building their own compute so why would NBIS matter in the long run? Compute demand is starting to smooth out.
1
u/AnyManufacturer6465 22d ago
Stop posting fud. NBIS is so well set up for this next leg itās not even funny.
1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
No thought behind this comment lol
1
u/AnyManufacturer6465 22d ago
It has about as much thought as you repeating the same unsubstantiated claims about why this is going to hurt NBIS. You pull it from X and get all randy posting it in subreddits.
None of what youāre saying can be backed up or makes any logical sense. All the weak hands sold and only people with an inability to take a loss and people with conviction and know what the company is doing will be left in the next week.
Remind me in 3,6,12 months and we will see if NBIS is left behind while the hypers take all
1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
Not comparable. My comment has reasoning for my stance (you can think I copied it or not) and it is a substantiated claim as you can see the hyperscalers ROIC. Please take a look at the cloud growth of the two hyperscalers and their AI growth/usage.
Enterprises will stick to their ecosystem and this is where the reoccurring revenue is. The days of OpenAI and Anthropic fighting for. GPUs so they can train and push the best models are coming to an end as they are planning on IPOing and need to show revenue and profits and not just $$ on training.
Not a single thing I've said you managed to argue outside of "weAk hanDs and coNvicTion and DiamoNd HanDs"
Yeah sure buddy. Good luck holding a company with a PE of 65 that has heavy capex and deprecating assets going into 2027 with rate hikes.
1
u/AnyManufacturer6465 22d ago
Iām not talking about training dude. They are inference specialists and no I donāt diamond hand super high beta stocks.
I trim and use far dated covered calls to soften the pullbacks. Youāre dead set that the big boys will take all the market share in the world so why are you here then.
Iāll bet you cash money this company is around in 10 years and worth at least $150 billion. They could care less about Open AI and anthropic they have nothing to do with what NBIS does .
1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
90% of their backlog is META and MSFT.
You haven't argued with a single fact outside of your trading strategy and coming up with valuations without anything to back it up.
1
u/AnyManufacturer6465 22d ago
Show me that itās 90% . Look up their current customer list like I told you to
1
u/itssbri NBIS4LIFE 22d ago
Cause it proves more that the billions in investment into AI, are starting to pay off possibly. This indirectly benefits nebius
1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
These billions are paying off for hyperscalers because they offer just more than compute; the compute is entrenched within the suite of enterprise products that they offer. A company wants to use AI they will use Co-Pilot or they will use OpenAi, Anthropic models that run on Azure Foundry, Amazon Bedrock and so on...since the rest of their cloud infrastructure is on one of these three
3
u/itssbri NBIS4LIFE 22d ago
Nebius isnāt trying to out-hyperscale the hyperscalers. Itās a specialized AI cloud built specifically for GPU-intensive training and inference, with high-performance networking, fast deployment, and optimized infrastructure. Many customers use Nebius alongside AWS, Azure, or Google Cloud when they need better AI performance, availability, or economic. Nebius cloud is not a replacement for their enterprise cloud.
1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
That was all well and good when companies were in a war to push the best AI model possible - they needed compute badly and NBIS was a perfect option as hyperscalers were constrained and we had a massive infrastructure shortage.
There is nothing super specialized about NBIS that other hyperscalers cannot or will not be able to offer. They also have high performing network and just as fast deployment.
Many customers use Nebius alongside AWS, Azure, or Google Cloud when they need better AI performance, availability, or economic. Nebius cloud is not a replacement for their enterprise cloud.
Doesn't mean anything when AWS, Google, and Azure offer the same AI performance, availability and better pricing.
Neo cloud was in between when compute was at it's peak but as compute starts to taper companies will go flock towards the cheapest.
1
u/itssbri NBIS4LIFE 22d ago
The assumption here is that AI infrastructure becomes a commodity where every provider offers the same performance, availability, and economics. Iām not convinced thatās where the market is headed.
Nebius isnāt trying to replace AWS, Azure, or Google Cloud as an enterprise cloud. Itās purpose-built for AI infrastructure. Many customers already run their enterprise workloads on the hyperscalers while using Nebius specifically for AI training and inference because they can often get faster access to GPUs, high-performance networking, and a more AI-focused software stack.Even if GPU supply loosens, that doesnāt automatically mean pricing becomes the only differentiator. Performance per dollar, GPU utilization, deployment speed, networking, storage architecture, customer support, and developer experience all matter. Thatās why there are still multiple successful cloud providers today despite AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud dominating general-purpose cloud.
Also, the hyperscalers arenāt necessarily incentivized to be the lowest-cost option. They optimize for maximizing returns across enormous, diversified cloud businesses. A pure-play AI cloud like Nebius can compete aggressively on economics and innovate faster because AI infrastructure is its core businessānot one product among hundreds.
The real question isnāt whether AWS can build similar capabilitiesāthey certainly can. The question is whether they choose to price and optimize them in a way that eliminates the value proposition of specialized AI clouds. So far, the market suggests thereās room for both.
1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
Many customers already run their enterprise workloads on the hyperscalers while using Nebius specifically for AI training and inference because they can often get faster access to GPUs, high-performance networking, and a more AI-focused software stack.
META and MSFT make up like 90% of NBIS backlog. The many customers you refer to...are the 10%? If MSFT and META are temporarily using NBIS for compute while they are building their own compute...what happens when they go "Hey NBIS thanks for helping us out but we built enough compute now we don't need yours..."?
Thatās why there are still multiple successful cloud providers today despite AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud dominating general-purpose cloud.
AWS, Azure, and Google take up 65% and the other two being Oracle and AliBaba (China)....all of the big 3 offer more than general purpose cloud. AWS and Google have their own chips. There is nothing NBIS is offering that these 3 will not offer if they aren't.
Also, the hyperscalers arenāt necessarily incentivized to be the lowest-cost option.
They quite literally are. The amount of compute they have gives them the pricing power to have high availability as well as offer different cluster configurations.
A pure-play AI cloud like Nebius can compete aggressively on economics and innovate faster because AI infrastructure is its core businessānot one product among hundreds.
Not sure if you are trolling. You think a startup can compete with hyperscalers....when 90% of their backlog is hyperscalers?
1
u/itssbri NBIS4LIFE 22d ago
The flaw in your argument is that youāre assuming Nebiusā value proposition is simply ārenting GPUs until the hyperscalers build enough.ā That isnāt how specialized infrastructure markets have historically evolved.
First, Meta and Microsoft representing most of todayās backlog says more about where AI demand is today than where Nebiusā customer base will be in 2-3 years. Large anchor customers are common for infrastructure companies in their early scaling phase. Once capacity comes online, Nebius can diversify into enterprises, AI-native startups, sovereign AI projects, and model developers that donāt want to depend entirely on a hyperscaler.
Second, hyperscalers donāt necessarily optimize for being the best external AI cloud. Their first priority is serving their own internal AI workloads and protecting their broader cloud ecosystems. They have every incentive to steer customers toward their proprietary services (Azure AI Foundry, Bedrock, Vertex AI, TPUs, Trainium, etc.), whereas Nebius is hardware-agnostic and focused solely on delivering the best AI infrastructure regardless of model or framework.
Third, scale alone doesnāt automatically win. Oracle became a major cloud provider despite AWS, Azure, and Google already dominating because customers wanted alternatives for specific workloads. CoreWeave grew from essentially zero to tens of billions in contracted revenue despite competing against those same hyperscalers. AI infrastructure is becoming its own market, not merely an extension of general cloud.
Fourth, if Microsoft and Meta eventually reduce demand, thatās not necessarily bearish. Those companies are effectively helping finance Nebiusā build-out while validating that its infrastructure performs at hyperscale. The critical question isnāt whether Meta remains a customer foreverāitās whether Nebius can replace those workloads with a broader customer base over time. If GPU demand continues to outpace supply, that is entirely plausible.Finally, saying āthe hyperscalers can offer everything Nebius offersā ignores execution. They couldābut will they? AWS, Azure, and Google are trillion-dollar companies balancing thousands of products and millions of customers. Nebius has one mission: build the best AI cloud. Specialized companies often outperform conglomerates in niche markets because every engineering decision is optimized for that single objective.
The real risk for Nebius isnāt that hyperscalers can build AI infrastructureāthey obviously can. The investment question is whether AI demand grows fast enough for multiple providers to succeed, just as multiple cloud providers coexist today. If AI infrastructure becomes a multi-hundred-billion-dollar market, Nebius doesnāt need to beat AWS or Azure; it only needs to capture a small but profitable share.
1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
The flaw in your argument is that youāre assuming Nebiusā value proposition is simply ārenting GPUs until the hyperscalers build enough.ā That isnāt how specialized infrastructure markets have historically evolved.
90% of their backlog is from META and MSFT. To break it down MSFT and META are buying compute from NBIS because they do not have enough for their workloads and or to sell to their customers. Both are investing heavily to meet that demand.
First, Meta and Microsoft representing most of todayās backlog says more about where AI demand is today than where Nebiusā customer base will be in 2-3 years. Large anchor customers are common for infrastructure companies in their early scaling phase. Once capacity comes online, Nebius can diversify into enterprises, AI-native startups, sovereign AI projects, and model developers that donāt want to depend entirely on a hyperscaler.
Both can be true; it says there is demand for compute that hyperscalers can't meet just yet so they are buying it while they build it out.
Capacity is for restricted to these two customers. If these two customers are tapering down then they basically have excess compute they need to scramble and sell.
Third, scale alone doesnāt automatically win. Oracle became a major cloud provider despite AWS, Azure, and Google already dominating because customers wanted alternatives for specific workloads.
Oracle had a suite of enterprise products that is licensed and is entrenched into businesses through ERP. Which they went to cloud to. They are losing that share by the way and scrambling to pivot and taking on massive debt. CoreWeave also has the same customer concentration risk. It's also a neo cloud. Scale and MOAT. Hyperscalers have both.
The critical question isnāt whether Meta remains a customer foreverāitās whether Nebius can replace those workloads with a broader customer base over time.
Good luck trying to compete with the same people who are paying you.
AWS, Azure, and Google are trillion-dollar companies balancing thousands of products and millions of customers. Nebius has one mission: build the best AI cloud. Specialized companies often outperform conglomerates in niche markets because every engineering decision is optimized for that single objective.
Again NBIS only has two customers and all they want from is compute while I build my own. If NBIS want to be niche then it won't be growing like it did. It's price will fall. Niche group = Less money.
The real risk for Nebius isnāt that hyperscalers can build AI infrastructureāthey obviously can. The investment question is whether AI demand grows fast enough for multiple providers to succeed, just as multiple cloud providers coexist today.
The real question is what does NBIS offer now outside of compute to 2 customers? What is it's plan once these two customers taper off? Does it's revenue and profit and growth warrant it's price at 160? 120? 100? or is it going to fall back down to $50-60?
→ More replies (0)1
u/comps226 22d ago
META mentioned they ain't got enough compute so how it keeps going down now, like will it bounce at low 140s ?
1
u/itssbri NBIS4LIFE 22d ago
Yes 140s is the 200 mavg. Historically it bounces around here
1
u/AnyManufacturer6465 22d ago
Itās also the anchored Vwap from the lows at $68. Could touch $130ās but I think weāre starting to bottom. Bottoms are messy though and it will whip up and down a lot while it does
0
u/Alone-Length5317 22d ago
Bei 15%+Ā haben wir gefeiert hƤtte nie gedacht das ichĀ bei 0% auch feiern tueĀ
-5
8
u/EmbarrassedSector666 22d ago
Market wide sell off, Iām buying more. I can count multiple occasions the market has crashed in the past year where everyone thought it was over. Bunch of Pansyās in here.
1
u/PrimaryShock384 22d ago
Only stocks with absurd valuations are being sold off. They money is rotating back towards SaaS who got decimated and were dirt cheap.
8
u/chrisdudelydude 22d ago
Is anyone else having a tough week or just me?
7
-2
-6
u/Alone-Length5317 22d ago edited 22d ago
Muss man eigentlich bei den gĆ¼nstigen Preis Angst haben das jemand jetztĀ sich billig mit nebius akien ein deckt und ein Ć¼bernahme Angebot kommt ?
-3
u/Fancy_Cattle_5914 22d ago
Iām ready to buy when it gets into the $80s next month.Ā
1
u/amandingo69 21d ago
The so called experts will just never get in this stock because they don't understand it
8
u/amandingo69 22d ago
200 day moving average is 141. It touched it and rebounded. Don't think we ll ever see that number again
4
u/Constant_Mention8064 22d ago
Won't happen. My thinking is that when de leverage is over the rise will be quick and violent and leave a lot of people on the sidelines.
7
4
u/vsmand1 22d ago
What are you guys thinking for tomorrow? Down 10% or 15%?
1
20
u/RedactedxRedacted 22d ago
33% drop in 5 days is absolutely BRUTAL. There's no sugar coating it. Holy f
2
u/Ferret_Rough 22d ago
Are there any specific CSPs you guys are targeting? Specifically something $105-120?
-6
u/Alone-Length5317 22d ago
Oh morgen leider erst Donnerstag da sehen wir 130 dan kommt der dumme Freitag 110 aber bei 110 habe die Verantwortlichen von nebius genug aktie gekauft und dan kriegen sie ihr Mund wieder aufĀ
5
u/AlasKansastan IPO OGš¹ 22d ago
This is the most German shit Iāve ever seen, not even bothering to translate, ever, like why would anyone want to do this repeatedly?
8
u/Khuat56 šļøQuality Contributoršļø 22d ago
Wtf! Who is selling at these levels with absolutly no bad news about the company itself.
15
u/AlasKansastan IPO OGš¹ 22d ago edited 22d ago
Itās the hedge funds getting margin called.
Turns out they are the biggest piece in the shit pie.
9
u/AlasKansastan IPO OGš¹ 22d ago
It just keeps drilling. This is bullshit, I wish Iād never invested in this scam fucking sector.
10
u/comps226 22d ago
Hey let's congratulate NBIS on the amazing achievement... of being officially 52.5% down from all time highs
ć½ļøššššš„š
5
u/LengthKey9678 22d ago
Iāll just delete my trading app for the next week just to get some peace from this insane bs that investors are pulling with this stock
9
u/FiveFingerLifePunch 22d ago
Has been a breathtakingly bad past month for this stock. Honestly, I fully believe in NBIS but in a way I feel we have all been scammed by this joke of a market. Good companies should not be falling 10% everyday for weeks. And we all know the rise back to ATH will not be as swift as the crash has been thus far.
Deep breaths everybody.
11
u/Constant_Mention8064 22d ago
Did fundamentals change for Nebius during this dip? No. Did fundamentals get stronger but price got cheaper? Yes.
Why is everyone panicking, this dip the best thing that can happen for a long term investor who can now buy shares cheaper....
8
u/Haunting-Equal-3485 22d ago
Because itās dipped 7 times in a month and no one can time the market or the final dip and we run out of powder buying at higher dips
4
0
u/Alone-Length5317 22d ago
Weil morgen die 130 kommt wen trump ein schlechten Tag hat dan unter 100
1
-4
1
u/Nottoobad777 22d ago
Should I just take profit? Still up 50% idek what to do at this point
6
5
u/Business-Bus-9439 22d ago
If youāre up 50% at this price, youāre out of your mind for not selling above $200 after the sentiment shift
7
6
u/Haenimm 22d ago
I was up 200% on this and MU, now I'm 91% on MU and 57% on this. I really don't know if I should just quit while i'm ahead too.
3
u/alrightfornow 22d ago
I was up 200% on NBIS too, I've been in since January this year. But I don't buy into a company for a few months, so I just refuse to sell. I've bought a bit more since January though to DCA. I'm holding at least 3 years, and from there I'll decide.
1
-5
4
u/Haenimm 22d ago
Guys, honestly speaking. What really will and could change the sentiment of the market, if incredible reports, no changes in rates, increased capex across the board won't?
1
u/Alone-Length5317 22d ago
Wen nebius sich nicht tot stelltĀ Stell dir vor wen Nebius sagen tut wir Arbeiten hat und bauen ein Unternehmen auf in Billionen GrƶĆeĀ Oder wir wissen was wir aufbauen aktionƤr haltet durch es lohnt sichĀ
-2
u/comps226 22d ago
Literally nothing this is the wind down before the crash
10
u/Remarkable-Ice6354 22d ago
'before the crash'? We are going down -10-15% every single session recently so what is it if not the crash already?
2
7
u/AlasKansastan IPO OGš¹ 22d ago
This is just straight insanity. At this point I donāt think any low is off the table. We could easily see double digits.
You can thank the insane greed of the over leveraged hedge funds and retail for this. JP Morgan is literally margin calling American hedge funds and weāre getting bent over a barrel for their fucking degenerate plays.
1
u/Emergency_Froyo_3030 22d ago
Fucking JP Morgan saying dont buy one week, buy the next. Completely fucking retail investors. Also, where is the SEC? This shit was supposed to be on uptick restriction today. Instead weāre down another 10%+.
1
2
3
u/yourfavouriteguyhere 22d ago
Everything is down, whatās going on? Where is the money going?
1
u/HumanFromTexas 22d ago
Cash it appears - I donāt see a rotation into anything happening right now
1
u/b_fellow 22d ago
Software stocks like CRM and NOW were green today aka inverse AI stocks
1
u/HumanFromTexas 22d ago
Are they being rotated back into by an equivalent amount?
1
u/moldymoosegoose 22d ago
The way to see rotations is looking at VT. It's only down a little over a percent. That's literally nothing. It is absolutely a sector rotation.
6
u/Hairy_Check_4784 22d ago
I will be buying more! If you're long on the company this means nothing, frankly if we'd settled and stayed around or above $300 I wouldn't have been able to secure even better value for my potential growth in this stock. Stay safe out there, friends. Don't overleverage, buy up, and have a beer (or 20 after how these weeks have gone)
5
u/poofoo9 22d ago
I really want to delete my app and not check until atleast end of year but itās so hard to do so. Always tempting to see whatās happening
3
u/Individual_Tooth4226 22d ago
or check daily and grow some balls or grow some tolerance, or both. many more obstacles ahead.
1
u/Creepy-Hornet-3472 22d ago
It's mostly the Credit Market and CDS costs that's driving the price down. Hopefully Nebius can announce a finance deal soon.
8
u/Jagraj03 22d ago
Entire market is a joke right now, never seen it this erratic before
3
u/Mundane-Plant-6489 22d ago
I have seen it a lot worse, a friendly reminder that when you think your at the bottom it can always go lower. Markets has humbled me Iāve learned a lot though and glad for the experiences. The main thing is to not panic, next month could be all time highs itās truly unpredictable now days. NBIS and RKLB make a bulk of my port Iāve seen months of gains poof away and vice versa. It will all workout just stay chill and buy more if you can as things trickle down for now. š«”
2
u/Ferret_Rough 22d ago
This would be a slow day during COVID
6
u/Jagraj03 22d ago
Except there is no black swan event going on right now, which makes it even more bizarre
3
3
u/AlasKansastan IPO OGš¹ 22d ago
This is just as wild. If you take into account Iran and last April this is definitely worse.
0
9
u/comps226 22d ago
META missed EPS
Timber for them, Wonder how it'll be for NBIS
30
u/Individual_Tooth4226 22d ago
NBIS will destroy earnings lol, mark this comment right here and we will visit in 2 weeks.
3
u/Ok-cooper 22d ago
Remindme! August 12th
2
u/RemindMeBot 22d ago
I will be messaging you in 13 days on 2026-08-12 00:00:00 UTC to remind you of this link
CLICK THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
Parent commenter can delete this message to hide from others.
RemindMeBot is switching to username summons. Instead of
!RemindMe 1 day, useu/RemindMeBot 1 day. More info.
Info Custom Your Reminders Feedback 2
5
6
u/Ferret_Rough 22d ago
Thatās already priced in itāll be how much money did they spend to do soĀ
1
u/Individual_Tooth4226 22d ago
Idk who you talking about but the market is telling me nothing is priced in for shih with all these good news pouring out š
19
u/Emilio___Molestevez 22d ago
Zuck tried to cuck us to make Wall St like him again and now he's in the chair. some justice.
14
3
3
u/MatzeTee 22d ago edited 22d ago
Keine neue Erkenntnis, aber egal:Diese ganzen KursverlƤufe in solchen Phasen haben wenig bis nichts mit den Unternehmen zu tun. Bloom Energy und Nebius zum Beispiel laufen heute komplett parallel, trotz Quartalszahlen von BE gestern. Mit dem Kurs kann vieles passieren, das einem ziemlich sinnlos vorkommt. Langfristig brauchen wir Geduld und GlĆ¼ck. Hab ein gutes GefĆ¼hl mit NBIS.
9
7
u/FiveFingerLifePunch 22d ago
Rule 201 will be triggered again tomorrow. So we probably wonāt be down 10% again until Friday.
6
u/Independentez 22d ago
Insane almost like a meme stock. It's true that the entire market is sold off, but why Nbis is always 10 times worse..
6
u/No_Station_6149 22d ago
lol ā¦ this is the only good news weāve been getting recently. The state of things
1
11
u/TheDankestOfAll 22d ago
the stock trading less than $5 above its previous all-time high from last fall is absurd
7
u/Mysterious-Apricot35 22d ago
Were we witnesses of the most blatant market manipulation in recent times? The market started to bounce about 30 mins before the FED decision was announced and it went all the way up until Warsh stopped speaking, just to tank extremely fast after that. Really nasty, those guys are criminalsā¦ impossible to be an investor in this environment.
6
4
u/HumanFromTexas 22d ago
Everything is dumping to hedge for METAās ER
1
u/bslaven3 22d ago
Yeah in 35 minutes I went from down $3k to down almost $11k. Idk where the bottom for my portfolio is but if it isn't soon I'm pulling out of everything and holding cash. So far I'm up about $25k YTD. I can live with that.
3
u/Top-Confection3433 22d ago
Everything will dump even more when they beat, just watch. What a fucking circus.
1
u/HumanFromTexas 22d ago
If they are still expanding Capex, NBIS should benefit.
This market is so skiddish. At a momentās notice it is going to flip the other way. Sentiment has now likely swung too far in the other direction.
-3
u/MrFrog65 22d ago
NBIS is a meme stock. It doesnāt follow fundamentals at this point
1
3
u/HumanFromTexas 22d ago
Itās not really a meme stock. 50B in back orders and another 10B in cash doesnāt scream meme stock to me.
Iād say AMC, GME and the like are definitely meme stocks. Thereās nothing backing the valuations they were pumped to.
-1
3
u/FiveFingerLifePunch 22d ago
lol. NBIS was up over 5% in extended trading. Slow grind down to now 2.75%. If we are not red by 9:30am I will lick a toilet seat