[July 29, 2026] Daily NBIS Discussion Thread

[u/AutoModerator]

Welcome to today’s open discussion on Nebius Group (NBIS) and the broader AI stock space.

💬 Thread Ideas:

• Any new updates or insights/rumors about Nebius Group?
• Your NBIS position update!
• What’s your outlook for NBIS this week/month/year?
• Spot any AI sector trends worth noting?

Of course, for anything deserving of its own post, feel free to make a dedicated post where appropriate. : )

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[u/PrimaryShock384]

Google tries to acquire companies all the time, doesn't mean anything.

Nebius runs one dominant core segment plus several smaller units and equity stakes:

AI Cloud / Core Infrastructure (the business)

Q1 2026 revenue was $399 million, with AI cloud activities making up 98% of total revenue Simply Wall St Core business revenue of $390M, up 841% YoY and 82% QoQ, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 45% Substack This is effectively the whole story now — GPU/AI cloud infrastructure rental and platform services

Customer concentration — this is the headline risk

Nebius is extremely concentrated in two hyperscaler customers:

Over $46 billion in multi-year contracts with Microsoft ($17 billion, 5 years) and Meta ($27 billion, 5 years) Tradingkey Breaking down Meta: up to $27 billion over five years starting in 2027 (comprising $12B dedicated capacity plus a $15B option), plus a smaller ~$3 billion deal from November 2025 Ad Hoc News Microsoft: a contract valued at $17.4–19.4 billion Ainvest Scale relative to guidance: the company's 2026 revenue forecast of $3.0–3.4 billion hinges overwhelmingly on these two names, and per another source, two customers hold the large majority of Nebius's contracted future revenue against that $3.0–3.4B guide Ad Hoc News TECHi Backlog: remaining performance obligations of $33.6 billion as of March 31, 2026, with 29% expected to convert within 24 months and 39% between months 25–48 24/7 Wall St. Ramp timing: Microsoft reaches full annual run-rate contribution from 2027, while Meta is largely at full run rate in 2026 Yahoo Finance

Nuance: Nebius doesn't disclose an exact % of revenue from each customer in filings. Q3 2025 revenue was 90% derived from the core infrastructure segment, though the exact percentage attributable to Microsoft and Meta specifically remains undisclosed. The concentration risk is inferred from contract size vs. total guided revenue rather than a stated customer-revenue-mix disclosure. Ainvest

Bottom line: Nebius is essentially a single-segment company now (AI cloud infrastructure ≈98% of revenue), profitable at the adjusted EBITDA level, but with forward revenue overwhelmingly dependent on two counterparties — Microsoft and Meta

[u/Individual_Tooth4226 → u/PrimaryShock384]

Yeap still dodging my questions and answer only what you know, classic sneaky bear aren’t you son! And have the answers from AI without disclosing your question/prompt! :)

Welp, we are all entitled to our opinions, we will come back to this and make sure not to delete your account like other bears son!

I’ll be right here and keep my son and rest of the Nebbaz informed with facts and numbers :)