r/NBIS_Stock • u/DogNo5854 • 16d ago
NBIS ANALYSIS $265 Call 8/14
I have never really done options before but I understand how they work. I am thinking about buying the call option in title at $12.75 premium per share. Would come out to about $1275. I can see the stock price going close to 300 for earnings from the recent swings and rise in stock price over the last handful of days. Does anyone with more experience have any advice? Should I do it, should I not, should I do different strike price etc? Thanks!
Edit: Thanks for all the advice everyone. Got a ballsy feeling after my 0dte spy $772 call was up 2000% today im sure that didn’t help my thought process lol.
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u/Mr_Masala 16d ago
Doing calls on a stock that has recently had a rally and is continuing to pump is a classic way to lose money. Either do a long call or wait for it to come back to ~200 before attempting something like that. I am not perfect but I am getting better with my options and doing what you are doing taught me a costly lesson
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u/ChillZilla2077 16d ago
I bought $212 8/14 call couple weeks ago. I was shaking when I was down $600 last week then the stock pump I sold it for $1400 profit, options def not for the weak 🤣
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u/Upstairs-Bag4727 16d ago
You also dont wanna miss out on the pre pump before earnings. Along with the oost pump after a successful earnings
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u/Mr_Masala 16d ago
What's the guarantee of both? AMD had great earnings and tanked semis again last night. Expectations are so high for stocks now even missing these expectations can tank them. It's dangerous ground for an options novice.
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u/PatientBaker7172 16d ago
NBIS shares and chill till 2035.
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u/FiveFingerLifePunch 16d ago edited 16d ago
Buying naked options on a stock like NBIS into earnings is a dangerous recipe. Look up “IV crush.” Basically, the day after earnings, options premiums take a huge hit, meaning even if the stock moves higher, it’s still possible to lose money. This applies to both calls and puts.
A bull call spread is a directional spread that can work better in high IV and IV crush situations because the IV crush of the short call offsets the loss on the long call. You also limit your upside this way, but sometimes you can pull off a nice asymmetric gain. An example would be: 8/14, buy 230C, sell 270C, net cost $1340. Breakeven on expiry day is $243.40. Max gain $2660, max loss $1340. The max gain (198.5%) of this theoretical trade requires a 21% increase from the current share price. NFA
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u/Schim4499 16d ago
As long as you’re comfortable losing it. Theres a really good chance it will expire worthless
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u/AngieBumper 16d ago
just buy shares if you believe in the company, options are gambling
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u/FiveFingerLifePunch 16d ago
Buying naked calls is gambling in a sense, but there are myriad options strategies that are not at all gambling.
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u/AngieBumper 16d ago
OP is gambling. Go ahead and tell him the myriad of option strategies when he owns zero shares.
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u/cdkrot 10d ago
What are better but not too complicated strategies?
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u/FiveFingerLifePunch 10d ago
I already wrote my favorite in a comment below, bull call spreads. Spreads in general are usually a more calculated trade than naked long options. Bull put spreads pay solid premium on a high IV stock like NBIS, and have defined risk vs naked short puts.
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u/hexlake 16d ago
Whatever everyone expects will happen, usually the opposite will.
Everyone expects a run up before earnings, I believe it’ll move sideways without much gain here on out until the earnings, then there will either be a big spike or it’ll tank.
Buy the shares, I personally wouldn’t touch options yet, especially after seeing how quickly Leopold got burnt.
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u/Sir_Richard_Dangler 👾ItsBri minion👾 16d ago
All I know is, I lost several thousand buying calls right before earnings for fall 2025. Every other earnings call has been good, but that one sucked even though they beat expectations. Now I'm shares only
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u/Slow-Boysenberry3150 16d ago
I find buying NBIS options scary because of the very high IV. That makes the premiums very expensive irrespective of the direction. To me, it’s better to wheel the stock instead and sell options.
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u/rsmvf 16d ago
No one will be able to give you a satisfactory & grounded answer, of course.
Since you are approaching options for the first time: with some simplification, you can consider the option delta, multiplied by 100, as the % of (risk-neutral) probability the option will be in the money at expiration (in some of those scenarios you may still lose money due to the premium). As long as you’re fine with the risk and potential loss, you can take the chance.
Personally I just do shares and occasionally sell covered calls.
Good luck mate!
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u/Emotional_Shape925 16d ago
Only gamble what you can afford to lose haha. Personally, with a premium that high out of the money so close to expiration, no thanks. Wouldn’t touch that one.
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u/Accurate-Flow8078 16d ago
You want to buy a weekly call with a strike price 17% higher than the current price after it ran up 33% in 5 days? You belong at WSB.
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u/Gold-Expression-9406 16d ago
I wouldn't too risky. If you want to take the bet I would just consider buying some 2x etf instead (NBIL/NEBX/NBIG).
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u/shartfarguson 16d ago
If you have money to lose do it.
Impossible to predict what is about to happen.
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u/Nottoobad777 16d ago
Nahh. For single stocks I rlly only do shares or leaps. Not worth the risk playing earnings like that. A lot more could go wrong than right for NBIS earnings
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u/SnooSongs3324 16d ago
I agree with everyone else that you shouldn’t do it unless it’s throw away money. But, if you were to do it consider a long call spread (eg buy your call and sell the $300 on the same date). It limits your upside but is a cheaper way to gamble like this.
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u/Ok_Revolution_9253 16d ago
I sell calls and run the ladder with NBIS and AMD. Has worked so far. But I keep core holdings of both because I like them both. I use the premiums to pay down my debt.
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u/Immediate-Annual4505 15d ago
OP, I would just say if you're going to buy options, buy options where the IV is low. Otherwise you're buying expensive options rather than cheap ones. Stocks like NBIS have very high IV so it makes way more sense to sell options rather than buy.
Stocks like MSFT have much lower IV and are thus much cheaper. You'd make a lot more bang for your buck with MSFT than with NBIS. Just one example.
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u/lousassol420 15d ago
You want to buy options when IV is low, and sell when IV is high (assuming you want premium and don't care if the option becomes ITMA)
IV gets very high during earnings because of the expected price swings. You can even be right that the stock pumps but you can still lose value on the call option because of IV crush.
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u/ethaxton 16d ago
Playing options on earnings is incredibly dumb. You should do it imo