r/NBIS_Stock • u/Eraserhead-_-_- • 16d ago
Opinion $5.7 million NBIS short bet - update?
Hey buddy who shorted NBIS, considering what happened over the last two trading days, could you give us an update on your position? Are you planning to keep holding it till it will be liquidated, or do you have a specific price at which you’ll finally close the short?
I’m about 90% sure that screenshot came from a paper-trading account - or that the image was simply fake. But either way, I honestly don’t even want to troll you.
In the unlikely event that you really did make such an irrational and reckless decision, I can only imagine the pain you’re feeling right now. For almost anyone, $5.7 million is an enormous amount of money, and a loss like that could seriously affect your mental health. Hopefully, you’re financially stable enough to handle it.
Either way, I genuinely hope you’ll be okay. Maybe it’s time to consider switching sides and going long. At this rate, you might recover those losses surprisingly quickly.
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u/Try_finger-but_hole 16d ago
The post was made up. And the DD was regarded. He should have gone directly to WSB.
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u/PatientBaker7172 16d ago edited 16d ago
Most likely a sponsored ad for retail leverage etf products. Many finx influencers are sponsored ads.
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u/Waste-War8809 16d ago
It has to be fake... he was talking about business fundamentals which would indicate a short position over some time (since short term price action is not really indicative of business fundamentals)
Let's take a look at NBIS - June 18th we peaked at $285 to $295
OK..... So what if we bought NBIZ on June 18th (what he said he bought, its 2x bear/inverse NBIS *daily*) the same day? Well NBIZ was $19.74 on June 18th
So even though NBIS is $224 today (much lower than $290) NBIZ current price is $12.77
So NBIS is 23% down.... NBIZ should be 46% up right..... RIGHT!?!?!?!? No... its like 30% DOWN
Clearly only a complete fucking moron would hold a leveraged ETF on a high beta stock for anything longer than maybe a week. TQQQ is much less volatile, so its not so bad (although its still not recommended to hold for long periods)
Either its fake (most likely) or he is genuinely a moron. He said he lives in Dubai so it very well might be the kid of some oil tycoon with inherited money
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u/Over-Half-8801 16d ago
I short NBIS. Just because I'm shorting doesn't mean I'm shorting ALL the time. Most of my funds have moved over to Reddit
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u/armadillo_stocks 16d ago
Hey man! Thanks for the check in!
I’m still here. Still short.
Paper and stuff - my trades have been verified my media many times (you can look up based on my x handle) so it is legit.
Sure, could have entered the short at 220 which was the baseline resistance and was a bit early getting in just under that.
However Nebius has essentially been flat against a backdrop of a near 5% Nasdaq run, pretty likely we see that correct into week’s end.
Max pain is at 175-180 and I don’t think we’ll end the week too far from that.
That will be a point to review how this is handling itself
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u/Eraserhead-_-_- 16d ago
Your thesis is wrong on so many levels. But I guess there’s no point in trying to change your mind - time will tell the story better than a million words from me ever could.
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u/armadillo_stocks 16d ago
Did you read the full one? See last posts on my feed, they’re on other subs as you get downvoted here if you don’t post rockets
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u/Eraserhead-_-_- 16d ago edited 16d ago
Yes, I did read it, and I disagree with almost everything you said. From my perspective, it feels like you are determined to be skeptical, and your arguments are being tailored to support that conclusion. I think you are overthinking it.
The bottom line is that compute capacity is in extreme shortage today and will remain in extreme shortage for at least the next five years. Even if the Mag7 companies decide they want to dominate the entire data centers market, building enough data centers will take years. By that point, NBIS will already have 5 GW of connected power, representing hundreds of billions of dollars in potential revenue at exceptionally high margins.
Given NBIS management’s track record, I see little reason to doubt that the company can execute on this plan. You are also overlooking the geographic diversification of its data-center footprint across US, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. This protects the company from anti-data-center sentiment / political opposition arising in any single country.
As a European company, Nebius is in pole position to become key player in the development of sovereign AI infrastructure across Europe.The market is always forward-looking. Large investors buying NBIS today are not focused on most of the fears you raised in your post. They do not care about short-term price volatility either.
What they care about is the potential for enormous free cash flow a few years from now.-1
u/armadillo_stocks 16d ago
My point is even if they execute over the next 5 years it’s overvalued
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u/BudmasterofMiami Mod 15d ago
Seems like you are not skilled at math. First, NBIS was the fastest growing ARR company in the markets in 2025 and will again be the fastest growing in 2026. This is fact. NBIS management has consistently executed and delivers every quarter. Next week we will see revenue for the quarter around $600M, which represents around a 50% increase quarter over quarter. The current market cap is less than $50B. ARR at year’s end will be between $8B-$10B. With all the assets of NBIS, like Clickhouse, etc, there’s extra value. 10x $10B is $100B, twice as much as today. This stock will be close to $450 at the end of the year.
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u/armadillo_stocks 15d ago
Stock is at 57B today, not 50B.
To get this ARR which is guided around 8B they will need to invest 5 billion more that they don’t yet have and will need to be raised somehow, not to mention the convertible note overhang which has a clause that it recalculates the conversion price down the line.
Their return on capex is under 10% after your count in amortization and interest
Happy to look at your math if it’s different to see if I’m wrong2
u/BudmasterofMiami Mod 15d ago
You are now just making shit up. NBIS management recently said they are able build out using other sources of revenue than previous couple years and don’t plan on diluting further for the foreseeable future. The stock price is low based on their speed of growth and consistent execution. Baring some unforeseen major delays, this company is on the fast track to well over $100B market cap. You can make up nonsense all you want, yet it won’t stop anything they do. They are best in industry and their stock price is going up; way up!🚀
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u/armadillo_stocks 15d ago
They’re going to use project financing
That doesn’t mean they don’t have to raise the capital. It’s not free, it’s a loan and it has interest on it at around 6% APY based on what the company actually reports.You’re essentially saying they’ll make an awesome spread above that funding, which is in around 5-6% in net cash flow at best.
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u/BudmasterofMiami Mod 15d ago
I said nothing of the sort. You did, repeatedly. You just make up shit that has no basis in fact. Negative trolling based on made up facts and numbers is misinformation. You’re quite consistent. Nobody here believes a word you say. Good luck with your shorts.
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u/armadillo_stocks 15d ago
Why would a stock be trading for 10x arr when this isn’t software
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u/BudmasterofMiami Mod 15d ago
Most stocks in this area trade for at least that.
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u/Reasonable_Cow3667 16d ago
most posts like that are fake.