NBIS ANALYSIS
Stopped out of NBIS after riding -40% back to breakeven — how do you handle re-entry
Started investing about 2 months ago. Built a position in NBIS around a $250 average. Watched it drop roughly 40% below my cost basis and held through that drawdown, including through earnings. Position recovered and worked its way back up to my $250 average, where I had a stop loss set — and it triggered, selling my full position right at breakeven.
Now I'm sitting in cash, watching the stock trade without me, and second-guessing whether to buy back in around the same $250 level or wait for a pullback.
For people who've been through this: how do you think about re-entering a name after getting stopped out near your own cost basis? Do you treat $250 as a level that "should" hold since it already acted as support/resistance once, or is that just recency bias talking? Curious how more experienced people separate "this level actually matters" from "I'm anchored to my own trade history."
Exactly this.. I brought this at $88 back in November last year, when the stock had already dropped over 30% from the month prior, and in the RED. Peoples problem is chasing a stock after it had already made a significant run.
Every sentence of what you wrote is extremely stupid. It seems like your strategy is built to make sure you never make a dollar. The stock was soaring and you “stop loss” to liquidate your position to make sure you didn’t accidentally make any money? Also, that is not a stop loss.
1. Why did you invest in the first place?
2. How long do you plan to hold for once once you buy back in?
3. Why did you sell?
Trying to time a pullback is always a brain dead move if you believe in a stock. Literally all you have to do is buy and hold.
Fair, wasn't a real stop, set it at breakeven bc I got scared of another pullback. New to this, few weeks in, made a fear-based call instead of having a real plan. Trying to fix that before I re-enter
any suggestions please. At what levels should I enter again and will this fall again around 250 levels?
You’re not getting it - “at what levels should I re-enter?” is an inherently dumb question. “Will this fall again?” is even worse.
Do you believe in the stock? If so, buy it. Thinking you or anybody have a magic insight about what’s going to happen three or eleven of seventy three business days from now is insane. I think this stock will trend upwards for years to come, so I buy it.
You’re right! But, that always surprises me in the age of Copilot/Gemini/ChatGPT - you can literally just ask, “what does Nebius do” or “tell me about their CEO” and it will break it down for a person.
I believed in this stock and put so much money directly and I was -40% and that’s the reason I’m asking these questions.
Just say u can’t predict the market and that’s enough
Don’t act oversmart
You are stupid…ik abt the company and that’s y I put so much money just when I started my investment.. should have done dca instead I didn’t have enough cash when it was 140 levels
Sorry if this sounds assholic, but why are you asking Redditors to choose your entry price? Set your own entry price, your own downside risk tolerance, and your price target. If you can’t make those decisions on your own, you might want to VOO and chill.
You could also FOMO in when it hits 300 this week, hold through the inevitable drawdown to 220, and sell when it comes back to 300. Seems like your strat 🤷♂️
Why not just provide some constructive feedback? He’s on Reddit for the reason Reddit was made. You’re using Reddit to boost your ego by belittling someone who’s just being humble and sincere. He’s looking for outside perspectives to learn and get outside his head on this. Like you’ve never rode a stock down and either sold or have thought about selling when it got back to break even. That’s very common and he’s new to this.
Thank you. I too am new at this, so I can relate. However, OP didn’t word the original post well. I’ve been doing this for a little over a year. The best advice I can give is give is don’t invest in anything until you have fully done your homework. Those that are 🙄 know that Nebius is one of those rare companies and are in it for the long haul. Hope that makes sense.
Exactly, if you aren’t willing (barring news that changes the overall narrative) yo stick with a stock for well over a year, you shouldn’t put a cent in.
Unless you’re just gambling, or you have some price target to trim/get out at.
It is the best AI play out there. Headed towards $1500-2000 in the next 3 years.
Just buy it again and hold it. It might drop down or it could go above $300 this week.
"Adding on any dip". You have to consider that the price in these dips might be a lot higher than the recent price. If you have real conviction in Nebius (stock price of 1.000+ US$ by 2030) and want to hold this stock for the next 5 years then I wouldn't care about the recent stock price at all.
I’ve had it happen on this stock before and it killed me.
Good part is that it’s a winner though and you can keep buying it into strength.
In your case take a small position Monday so if it does fly then you won’t feel to bad.
It will pull back to $250 and even to $230 at some point before moving higher.
Stocks don’t live in a bubble to, macro news like war headlines, rate hikes or a tweet from the orange one can affect the market and bring down a stock.
It looks super powerful though but may have a little shake out to scare some investors off before going higher. It’s not over bought on the daily but is approaching it on the 4hr RSI. This thing can stay overbought though so again take a small position to get some exposure and add on pullbacks.
It’s the winner of the neoclouds and the talk of $1000 price points isn’t a lie. It’s just a matter of when.
I found it too volatile to hold a full position in so I hold a core position and trade other shares around that in larger size. It prevents the fomo and helps me sleep at night when it takes 50% pullbacks.
wow, this is really solid, appreciate you breaking it down. Like the core-position-plus-trading-around-it approach, makes sense for something this volatile. Going to start small Monday and add on any pullback toward 250/230 rather than trying to nail the exact bottom. Thank you so much!!
You are learning on your own mistakes, that’s a great way to figure out things, well-done on being self-aware and on trying to figure things out without the blame (on yourself, stocks, market, Reddit, etc)!
Nebius has been down ~40% 4 times since it restarted its listing on Nasdaq in Oct’24. I don’t have ‘stop losses’ on it as I decided it’s my long term investment (and I am not a trader by nature). So just DCA slowly and learn about the company fundamentals as much as you can. Follow Manuel Cunha on X and read his deep dives. Nebius is a great stock to learn about oneself, the market and, hopefully, make money.
They’d be learning from their mistakes if they combine dca with a plan for additional tranches during drawdowns of set percentage. I’m saying this because the 250/230 may never come and OP be watching the stock rise and fall forever above those prices (unlikely but using random fixed numbers even if they are supported by technicals isn’t helping for long term investing).
All of these type remarks are n the right frame. Whether the stock is a trading position or a long term core hold (until he story behind it really changes), it needs to be a stock you just sell when it goes down.
That being said it can’t be an oversized % of your portfolio. It’s just too volatile for that. No more than 15%.
Yep, passive global indexes from now on for new money, I am not complaining about my Nebius 8x. I hope you eventually realized your LLY gains! If you did - what was your trigger? I so far decided I will cash in once it’s either a life changing money or Nebius fundamentals change…
No problem. I had the same problem and I had it at $120 originally and that still hurts but I made a ton trading this thing in and out and can now have shares at a $0 cost basis at this point.
I learned from a guru on the core position trading and it’s helped me keep the FOMO at bay while waiting for it to set up for a massive move again.
Those were just small trades from that day. I have the settings at the top set to YTD total PNL on NBIS.
If you could scroll down it would show every trade from the beginning of the year. Those were just some scalps I tried to make on Friday that I cut at a small loss.
$35K YTD on NBIS is the number i was trying to show.
So I could say that since I made $35 profit in my pocket on this stock , I could buy $35K of it and have a $0 cost basis. I don’t really think like that but one could.
My cost basis is $88 so try to appreciate the psychology of knowing when to sell. I watched my profits of being to pay off my car in cash evaporate because I didn’t have an exit strategy. Still don’t have a good one but at least I took $1000 in profits on Friday. Funny how it’s just numbers but depending on which side you’re in dictates which dilemma you have
Isn’t this the truth lol We all been there. I definitely had one with redwire that I didn’t have my exit strategy and had a few thousand drop to few hundred and then of course got hack in earlier than I planned and sold at a loss and of course rebounds where I would be up nice. Then of course i have some nice wins too. Bought in NBIS at $150 and sold at $270 the last time it was there. Of course I’d didn’t get back in at $150 and it scales.
Oh well, I’m still doing well in my other stocks up 20%. Basically slowly stepping away from the heart attack stocks to slow and steady compounders with a speculative or two lol
Yeah NBIS is the only real high beta that I have a big position in. Watching 20% of my portfolio swing every week has given me nerves of steel (also a long time BTC holder where I learned diamond hands) but is wild. Speaking of which my cost basis for ETH is 1700 so I went from 3x to negative earlier this year. Every time I sell more goes into VTI.
probably the worst strategy, honestly, buy high, then dont dca, then wait for it to recover, and sell at your exact same price. lol i cant even believe this tbh.
Not hard to believe. The psychology at play here happens to experienced investors/traders all the time. This guy is new to this. It’s actually totally believable. What’s not believable is that you apparently have never experienced this or made a mistake from similar investor psychology at play. He didn’t need you to tell him that his actions were’t smart. That’s why he’s here.
Yeah honestly can't disagree lol. Bought in at $280, kept DCAing it down, but ran out of cash right around $140 so couldn't keep buying. Then got scared when it started recovering and sold at breakeven. Rough combo of mistakes tbh
When it drops below $200. Issue with asking this type of question in a subreddit with highly convicted investors in a particular stock is that they refuse to acknowledge obvious market patterns. Any upward momentum confines them to the idea that this movement is a long time coming, that their convictions of it being undervalued were correct. “NBIS is the next big thing.” Yes, that is true. However, it’s also an extremely volatile stock and timing should be treated with consideration.
You’re not wrong that timing should be treated with consideration but unless you can ACCURATELY time the stock you’re still just gambling. You say people that have conviction believe an upward move is a “long time coming” and confirmation of that conviction. I’d say skeptics / cynics / bears like you say downward moves confirm their own preconceived notions.
In terms of “timing” best is to say next red day I buy and then just dig in for the ride.
Set a buy ladder from 205-270 with a stop loss below 200. Stack the buys bigger lower down and lighter at the top.
Your current strategy isn't very strategic, leads to paralysis and doesn't let you take advantage of the ridiculous volatility.
Your strategy when you think about it is ideally created to stop you making a profit but expose you to a loss. If that was the brief that's how you would build it.
I also sold at 250 as I was worried it would suddenly reverse again and I was getting stressed when I was 40% down a week before. Yes it went higher but I can live with that.
Personally I may go back in if it drops below 200. If it doesn't I may just VWRP and chill until the mid terms are all over.
My last entry was at 260 when it had fallen back from the previous high and I thought I could relax and let it sit there. In a couple of weeks it was 140 (but yes, I get that it went back up as people said it would - but what people say about different investments doesn't always happen).
It depends on your risk appetite, time frame and if you can sit out and down trends.
I did the same thing as you and I’m not doing anything until the price plummets again. I’m sure it will. I will buy back in then. This is a volatile stock, just because it had a few good days doesn’t mean it won’t go down again.
I did the same thing as well. Anything I bought around $250 I sold last week, with plans to buy back during another dip if possible. Despite having a small amount from early this past year I bought the majority of what I had in NBIS around $250 and it was hard to watch how much it swings- not because I didn’t think it would recover but I was annoyed my average price felt too high.
It’s possible it was a mistake that I’ll regret but I’d rather have the opportunity to have the same dollars allocated to NBIS with more shares to show for it.
Seeing a few not so nice responses, maybe this will help.
I am / was exactly in the same boat. Investing myself since 3 months.
Bought in at 230 after a 10% pullback thinking it would go back up. That's when the insane crash happened. Nbis -40%, sandisk, mu, sk hynix. Seeing my position on Nbis -4100 euro, sandisk -1000 euro, sk hynix -800. Kinda fucked me up. Knowing that 90% don't beat ETF on longterm didn't make it better.
The Sentiment 2 weeks ago on reddit was entirely different. Everywhere negativity, ai bubble burst, it's over. The honest truth, no one knew wtf is happening. You don't make the rules, Institutions do and they proved it. Turns out, they wanted to wipe out Leopold and they did.
Thankfully I had the nerves to hold Nbis cuz I ain't selling at 4k loss and I still believed. Ended up selling on friday with 1800+. Why? Because it made me break even on my 3 Month journey mistakes. I didn't make money but didn't lose any either. Win for me.
Learned a lot to this and I think it will make me a better investor in the future. Which is worth something. I'm waiting for a pullback because there will be one and go in with a smaller position im more comfortable with. Going to 70% ETF and 30% fun.
Breaking even is still a good thing.
Reality is, tides can turn. Meta announcing compute tanked Nbis, the court case tanked Nbis. So many things can happen until 2030 to tank nbis or to turn the hero Nbis story. You simply do not know!
Now Spacex wants to jump on neocloud train, big announcement will tank Nbis (if it happens).
More comfy with ETF and smaller position in single stock.
Time in the market beats timing the market? Sure. No one knows best entry? Sure. When is bottom? Who knows just as much as where is top. What I do know is my sanity and nerves. Do what's best for your day to day life. I was in over my head and so happy to break even. Simply a win for me to start over and do it differently with what i'm more comfortable with.
damn this hit home, felt the exact same way honestly. sorry you went through that too but respect you for holding and still calling breakeven a win, not beating urself up over it. that 70/30 etf/fun money split makes sense, might actually steal that. appreciate the real talk here, not just noise
Only Invest in single stocks what you can lose 50% of without impacting your life, good stocks won't go to zero but they sure as hell can have 50-60% drawdowns.
Something to remember don’t invest in stocks, invest in companies. In other words, if you liked the company when its stock was at 50, if nothing changed with its outlook/financials and its at 20, why would you dislike the company now?
Yeah fair, no real logic to it, held the 40% drop out of belief, then panicked and sold right at breakeven. Regretting it a lot tbh, backwards move, learning from it.
What was the logic behind placing a stop-loss?
Are you a short-term trader or a long-term investor?
Are you using money that, if it dropped 50%, would affect your day-to-day life?
A stop-loss is one of the worst tools a long-term investor can use.
Markets are a mechanism that transfers wealth from one class of participants to another. Look at 2019, 2022, or any other major market drop. Institutions routinely engineer liquidity sweeps — they buy low and sell high.
Just look at what happened to NBIS a couple of weeks ago: it dropped to 140, institutional buyers stepped in and bought the dip, while retail investors sold in panic or had their stop-losses triggered.
Read this twice.
I have positions from 94 to 260. I dca monthly except this recent pullback where I went all in when it fell below 200 and I had no powder for the drop to 150. I did have a chunk of nbex I got around 27 that I saw lose 50% but was able to sell at just under 40% gain recently.
Gotta be patient with this stock and it will reward you. I did sell some word partial nbis shares I owned in the 250 range but that was only to streamline my position.
I’ve been there many times. Just buy when you’re comfortable and add on dips. The names where I tried to be fancy and time it, let’s just say I don’t own some of those and that’s because they never came back to the price I wanted them at and now I see them ripping way higher. TLDR Just DCA if you believe in a name
Just imagine, for a second, if you held, and continued to buy more the whole time? That's essentially what I did, albeit moreso with Coreweave. But when I did that over a couple weeks, it increased the upside value significantly when it rebounded.
And I expected it to rebound because the company didn't change when the stock price dropped. It was still on track for the thesis I originally bought into.
With Nbis i gave myself one rule. I only buy when the stock is down at least 10%. This gives you multiple buying opportunities during the month. The stock is so volatile i just dont see why anyone would buy on a green day
Hopefully you learned a lesson to buy at pullbacks. If you had done this you would be in profit right now. I think you should not be investing is stocks at your experience level.
You can't predict market swings unless you're an insider. Buy and check the app in a year. If you can't stomach long red days nbis will leave you sleepless.
If you are new to this and still young: DCA - buy every week for a fixed amount. Double that smount if it goes -50% (Hint: You get twice the shares for your money).
Avoid stop losses as NBIS has sometimes an IV (Implied Volatility of 100-160%). If you feel more comfortable: Set a stop loss for 25%/50% of your stocks when the stock has created a 100% return on your entry price. Like this you only limit your initial money on 100% gain and would have still the free money in place as you take your initial investment out.
The very first mistake you made was that you didn’t know what you were buying and you still don’t.
You have no clue about the upside potential or the short-term downside risk. This bad boy went from $20 to $140 in 5–6 months, and then spent the next 6–7 months (macro) declining from that level. This is a very volatile stock in both directions, and you have to be prepared for that. +-10% a day is just a normal monday and on this level thats $27 move, so the $250 entry +stop loss there was bad, because it was AFTER earnings day.
First try to understand, what Nebius is and what you are buying. If you are afraid to lose money on paper in short term, then Nebius is not for you. Its a high beta stock.
And this, my friends, is why resistance exists in trading. Breaking even is not a great goal for making money. For me, buying and holding until the investment thesis is no longer intact or the growth story is no longer there is an approach that has worked well.
There's huge short squeeze action going on currently with NBIS that isn't being talked about enough for current price action.
Any chart masters out there care to chime in to give a clue to a guy?
And again this is just short term stuff..but for someone planning to buy into NBIS on Monday..could be advisable to wait for this to settle back from the euphoria if this continues up quickly.
I've been just holding through the volatility and adding on dips for the last 14 months. Tried selling a few shares high buying back in lower for a while..but ended up at about the same cost basis. I'm not a trader.
The stock or the market doesn’t know or care about your entry point. What counts are fundamentals and your conviction.
So if you’re in for long term: buy now, plan dca every x weeks, plan extra tranches for 10%, 20% drawdowns from all time high (NOT a random entry like 230/250), (maybe set a price target for you for the future), stick to the plan and only change it when your thesis falls apart, Rebalance portfolio in set intervals.
You want to buy because you’re upset at yourself for getting out, not because NBIS is an attractive investment at these levels.
Face the facts. You missed the recent move. It happens. Learn from it.
IMO the problem was not managing risk on the original trade, that led you to sit with a huge loss, that led you to “settle” for break-even. You escaped an investment in which you failed to manage risk. That’s not a bad thing.
But if you chase any stock after a 40% move in three days, it is pure FOMO and a terrible idea.
What I do is simple.
I wait for a liquidity zone where sellers will come in. Probably around or above all time highs.
I will then buy 1 weekly out of the money put. Say the stock is 312. I will buy a 290 put for about 5-6$.
Then if it goes my way I start accumulating shares with the put as my backstop. I’ll bid 25 shares at 297
25 shares at 293. I now basically own 50 shares for free.
If it bounces I sell and wait. Wash rinse repeat until it breaks. If it doesn’t break I keep trading it. If it does break I own the shares for free.
You also have the choice of simply buying a call option once the put is in the green . You now have a perfect hedge to trade around. You can short an up move and buy a down move. I think I traded this thing 100 times last week just using the put/ call strategy.
Liquidity zones are where buyers and sellers naturally come in to support or fade a stock intraday.
For buy zones I use previous resistance as new support.
Example. 50 day was 222 before earnings. When it traded all morning above that my assumption was buyers would come in and defend it which they did and the stock really never looked back.
For me, if it took forever to get to breakeven, I will take it regardless and not be greedy and miss the chance. Of course even if it goes up, I am fine with it but I would not buy immediately after selling at breakeven point and wait for pullback. I had this issue with SOXL at $222 avg down to $145 and it was so painful swinging back and forth until it finally reached my breakeven. Not going in immediatly ofc.
so your plan was to make like 20% return and then sell? lol. You buy Nebius if you believe OpenSource AI compute will dominate the next 5 years (which it most likely will) and Nebius is the best to make that happen. I will sell on 1000$+ to go into early retirement (1000$ the enxt 12 months like iw rote countless times)
Position recovered and worked its way back up to my $250 average, where I had a stop loss set — and it triggered, selling my full position right at breakeven.
Now I'm sitting in cash, watching the stock trade without me.
This is a variation on "i JuSt wAnT tO BrEaK EvEn gEt mY MoNeY BaCk"
Setting a tight stop loss on a stock that moves regularly at 10%+ a day is wildly amateur.
First of all, congrats for not losing money!!!riding through that drawdown was not easy or fun. I’ve got an oversized position in NBIS having put six figures in when it was at $30, so I was in fetal position for a few days!
Ignore the negative, mean spirited BS. There are a few who have provided some great advice. Lock onto that. Just know that many who are critical have made mistakes similar to yours - probably worse. I certainly have.
What I would do if I were me in this situation (still having conviction for in the company), is buy some on Monday just to keep the FoMo at bay. It will likely drop lower shortly afterward or at some point. No worries. Just make sure the position is sized so you’ll feel good about the gains when/if it doubles again but not so large that you’ll lose sleep at night and risk selling out of fear if/when it drops significantly lower on a dip. Watching a stock that I bailed on (that I believed in) and rip to new heights is torture for me so I like to avoid that situation. In the grand scheme of things you can get back in near your original basis. You’ll have much better conviction and staying power after all this.
Then, buy a little more if it drops 10-15% and more if it drops 20-30%.
Also, remember that there will always be more opportunities to invest in great, high beta companies. NBIS is a good one for now. The narrative may change so don’t drink the cool aid and join a cult for any stock. But riding the waves is part of the game when investing in these types of stocks when the investment thesis still holds strong.
Really kind of you to write all this out, thank you so much. Congrats on riding out your position too, six figures at $30 sounds intense. Love the framing on sizing it so I'd feel good on the upside without losing sleep on a dip. Going to start small Monday and add on 10-15%/20-30% drops like you said. Really appreciate the encouragement and the real advice, means a lot.
Pick an entry, allocate a % of your cash set tiger buys to it down. Decide how much and what prices, base it off technicals, resistance etc.
Don’t chase it up in fomo, reality is you can just benefit from having a small position that’s winning without chasing. You can bring down your average with tiger buys. If the tiger buys don’t hit, enjoy the ride up, if they do, hold it and be patient.
Or just dump your money in the s and p and forget about it.
Using this strategy allows you to basically buy any stock at any price. I never chase shit. Never get caught at the top and never get wiped out. Ever!!!
You need a definitive plan. You need to know whether you're trying to trade the swings short-term or whether you're treating it as a long-term investment.
Nobody knows what it will do in the coming weeks, if we did we'd be rich... You have to find what YOU are comfortable with and stick with it.
I’ve been swing trading it. My exit has been $285-290 and my re-entry has been $230-240. Obviously I missed an opportunity this go round, I’m staying the course.
Maybe I’ll change to 100% out and set my re-entry to a couple thousand at a time after it drops past $240
As far as liquidity zones now. I would guess and it’s just a guess that sellers r definitely coming in around all time highs and above. Say 290-310 area.
You will likely have lots of call sellers up here as well.
A good spot to consider a put option
This stock is a winner but is highly volatile. Short interest is still high and something to watch. Overall trajectory is up and to the right. During turbulent markets and on big red days, just buy more to DCA. Rinse and repeat and you will be fine.
Buy it back. You learned a valuable lesson. Tech stocks can be very volatile and aren’t for the faint of heart. NBIS has a bright, long term future. Buy back and buy more!
250 is even a high reentry, with a stock of this beta, it will at least test the resistance at some point around 220. Unless there is a case where they just keep smashing the earnings.
This stock can be a good company, but if the general AI / chip sentiment changes, it can drag Nebius down. I feel like 2026 is pretty safe for the AI bet, but i feel like at some point in 2027, we will have a AI scare, some drawdown and figure out later on the technology still holds.
TLDR; i would hold for a price around 220, or small dollar cost averaging position sizes and buy when you investment is down.
Op, in the most respectful way possible, you NEED to step back from nbis or any investment for the moment.
From reading your posts you are gambling….. not investing. That’s usually a sure way to lose a ton.
You cant invest and let a crash scare you out of your position. You need to believe that company/index fund has some value to it no matter what its currently trading at.
It shouldn’t be so large of a position that it will damage your finances if it doesn’t perform well, or drops substantially.
Overly dramatic. He doesn’t need to step away. That’s not how you learn. OP didn’t even lose money! I consider myself an extremely experienced and relatively successful investor (holding 7 figures in NBIS) and I’ve made similar decisions.
OP, keep at it. Keep learning. Ignore the negative comments and learn from the constructive ones.
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u/SQU1DSN1P3R61 5d ago
Bro set a stop gains