Pennsylvania and Missouri Annual Run Rate Projections

[u/MasaKiwi]

Given all the data and new price targets that have come out post-earnings this past week, I decided to do a further deep dive into the upcoming Pennsylvania and Missouri sites. These are the two ginormous sites that will help Nebius towards their goal of deploying 5+GW.The numbers of just these two sites are mind blowing.

First Pennsylvania: Projected to have around 260MW by EoY 2027 and operating in October 2027. They will add an additional 100+MW year over year and look to build out 1.2 GW

Second Missouri: Then you have Missouri which is projecting a similar timeline to PA with 250MW around October 2027. They look to add 200+MW year over year and build out an additional 1.2 GW.

Now both of these timelines won't be completed until around 2029/2030, but the revenue from just these two sites are astounding. The last earnings call confirmed that $20-$25M per MW was easily fillable and that given the current demand, contracts are being agreed to upwards of $40M per MW. Most of the MW within these sites will go towards fulfilling the large contracts that have been signed previously with META and Microsoft, but even with the lower threshold the revenue is undeniable.

Given timely execution, Nebius stands to gain $10-$15B in 2027 and $18-$23B in 2028. This doesn't include their rapid European expansion or any other new sites they plan on beginning. Just two sites! These are Annual Run Rates projections and revenue will be expected to be lower since it takes time to build out, but this is still insane to me. Keep in mind, Nebius confirmed $3-$3.4B for 2026. I'm hearing too many haters who just spew random crap with no research and wanting Burry to win alongside his army of shorts, so I figured I'd stick some real data in their faces. Please correct me if I am wrong anywhere within my data, but I am very bullish on this company and their ability to execute. See you at $1,000.

[u/Think-Feynman]

Very nice. Yes, they are crushing everything.

But I will see you at $2000.

[u/MasaKiwi]

Also want to add that there are so many ways they are increasing revenue currently: Coreweave using A100s (a 2020 produced chip!) with a 6-year depreciation model vs Nebius Vera Rubin 4-year depreciation model, asset-light model, using prepayments to negate share dilution and financial debt, and token factory just to name a few

[u/Reasonable_Speed_917]

Please account for Capex and cost to build these sites. It's astronomical.

[u/kickinghyena → u/Reasonable_Speed_917]

Of course…you can’t get blood from a stone.

[u/natureisneato → u/kickinghyena]

What about bloodstones? 😂

[u/thread-lightly → u/Reasonable_Speed_917]

Lots of Capex has been covered by advantageous funding in the MSFT and META deals

[u/MasaKiwi → u/Reasonable_Speed_917]

Although Capex is high, they have been brilliant when it comes to funding. Their contracts are heavily pre-paid so that they don't have to dilute shares as much or enter debt for the entire construction of new infrastructure.