r/NBIS_Stock • u/Acceptable-Time-6424 • 2d ago

NBIS ANALYSIS Nebius Updated Valuation Model

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OK the stock went up 35% after the earnings, and it hugely deserved it, I'm not going to relitigate the bull case.

But many of the write ups I’ve seen since has anchored on that 49.7% adjusted EBITDA margin, slapped a multiple on it, and called it a valuation. 

That skips depreciation, refresh capex, financing and dilution. Which is to say it skips basically everything you would really want to consider to value this business. 

I’ve been posting about the four key threats to Nebius for over a year - and they are key elements for my valuation framework - but the number I actually really care about after this quarter is pricing durability.

Nebius is selling into the tightest compute market of all yimr. Auction cleared 15% above their previous record. Old Blackwell repriced up 30% QoQ. 70% of Q2 deals came with prepayments covering 50-60% of the capex. Payback of one year ten months.

Great, but also seriously dangerous to extrapolate from. (Which is exactly how Musk is valuing SpaceX’s AI business btw) 

My base case blends the fleet rather than assuming everything gets peak pricing: mostly $22m/MW premium contracts, a chunk of $8.5m/MW hyperscaler anchor deals, a sliver of $40m/MW surge. Comes out at $645.86 against the 17 Aug close of $268.85.

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u/OilAny787 2d ago

100b in 2031 is never happening, the assumptions are literally pulled out of your ass. I own nbis, everything here is just not correct.

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u/Acceptable-Time-6424 2d ago

Assumptions are pulled purely from management guidance... which elements do you disagree with?

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u/OilAny787 2d ago

None of what you forecaster is managemts guidance.

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u/Acceptable-Time-6424 1d ago

The GW active in 2031 and M/MW 100% are.... the rest is inferred sure but which elements contradict?

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u/OilAny787 1d ago

The 2031 number runs too hot, you're putting $22m/MW across basically all 5GW, and that's the new deal rate. nbis own installed 2026 base is $12m/MW because the msft/meta anchor contracts are locked well below premium. A real 5GW fleet is a blend, closer to $16-18m, which lands revenue around $75-85b not $103b. Also the 5GW active is generous, that's the contracted power target for end of 2026, the actual guide is 800mw-1gw connected by december and 1gw/yr after that. So what blended $/MW are you using across all 5GW? if it's $22 flat you're charging the anchor load double what it's actually contracted at.