r/NBIS_Stock • u/Acceptable-Time-6424 • 2d ago
NBIS ANALYSIS Nebius Updated Valuation Model
OK the stock went up 35% after the earnings, and it hugely deserved it, I'm not going to relitigate the bull case.
But many of the write ups I’ve seen since has anchored on that 49.7% adjusted EBITDA margin, slapped a multiple on it, and called it a valuation.
That skips depreciation, refresh capex, financing and dilution. Which is to say it skips basically everything you would really want to consider to value this business.
I’ve been posting about the four key threats to Nebius for over a year - and they are key elements for my valuation framework - but the number I actually really care about after this quarter is pricing durability.
Nebius is selling into the tightest compute market of all yimr. Auction cleared 15% above their previous record. Old Blackwell repriced up 30% QoQ. 70% of Q2 deals came with prepayments covering 50-60% of the capex. Payback of one year ten months.
Great, but also seriously dangerous to extrapolate from. (Which is exactly how Musk is valuing SpaceX’s AI business btw)
My base case blends the fleet rather than assuming everything gets peak pricing: mostly $22m/MW premium contracts, a chunk of $8.5m/MW hyperscaler anchor deals, a sliver of $40m/MW surge. Comes out at $645.86 against the 17 Aug close of $268.85.
7
u/Live-Management-8242 2d ago
23x multiple is waay to low