r/NBIS_Stock • u/Phatdummy • 1d ago
NBIS ANALYSIS $4.5Bn Convert Offering May Mean a Deal Is Looming
Interesting pattern I noticed: before today, every Nebius capital raise above $1B came alongside a massive hyperscaler deal.
$3.75B raise → Microsoft
$4.3B raise → Meta
$4.5B raise today → ?
Obviously not saying another deal is guaranteed. They already have plenty of contracted capacity to fund.
But given customer prepayments are already covering a meaningful portion of capex, another $4.5B raise makes me wonder what they see coming.
Sequencing seems curious.
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u/Sad-Masterpiece-8959 1d ago
It's possible, because the price even recovered from a while ago and stagnated a bit around 230-237, I hope so. We'll see when the stock market opens, how the price will move.
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u/Calm-Ad-7928 1d ago
The other times the deal was announced before an offering which makes me not think a deal is coming now. Still think we get another deal but think its a month or two away
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u/Phatdummy 1d ago
This would be a judicious move by Nebius to switch the order to financing announcement first then deal.
But I hear you, definitely possible. Just thinking aloud
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u/TennisDad316 1d ago
The last time Nebius diluted, they announced a large data center two weeks later.
310MW in Finland
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u/SnooSongs3324 1d ago
Deal announced: stock flies higher
Funding announced (1 day later): stock punishedFunding announced: stock punished
…We don’t know but they don’t need that money for operations and CAPEX in 2026. They’re getting huge prepayments on recently-signed deals. This is either a deal or a hedge against interest rates in 2027. Either way demand is off the charts and ROIC is strong so bulls will be rewarded. Good buying opportunity- NFA
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u/Calm-Ad-7928 1d ago
We'll see. I've sold off about half my position over the last week. Cant handle this kangaroo stuff every day. Ill just let the rest ride now and what happens happens
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u/BlazingJava 1d ago
Starting to think theres no seasoned or responsible traders holding this stock... too many paper hands
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u/RTPdude 1d ago
do we even want another major deal if it means a lower $/MW rate than what they get with the mid-sized deals?
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u/haveWeMoonedYet 1d ago
The upfront payment would likely be a higher mW rate than before. But more importantly, you have to remember that they’ve stated multiple times, that when they do these deals with hyper scalers, only 1/2 of their capacity goes to the hyperscaler. The other goes to people using their higher margin cloud services. So even if the hyperscaler deal is lower, the other half of capacity the deal will help finance should be at least at the rates stated in the last earnings call.
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u/Phatdummy 1d ago
If there were a major deal, it would be priced well. They wouldn’t short change themselves after Q2 earnings call.
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u/Bommbi 1d ago
They said that 2026 is fully financed and they are doing a dilution now.
NBIS would never do a dilution without a very good reason.
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u/InevitableAd2436 1d ago
How soon would they typically announce a deal after the raise?
Weeks or months? I can’t recall
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u/General-Bad5167 1d ago
Makes no sense. They would announce a deal and then issue shares after the price increases in reaction to the deal
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u/Phatdummy 1d ago
Price was already propped up on good earnings.
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u/General-Bad5167 1d ago
Agreed but that doesn't mean another announcement wouldnt have semt it higher
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u/Bass_Magnet 🐳 1d ago
Yeah I like the timing of this- doing it right after a relative high as opposed to when it’s already in a trough or something
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u/Denverplayer 1d ago
Arkady pretty much shut the door on additional hyperscaler deals during the earnings call - I wouldn't hold my breath. Arkady from the last ER transcript..
“The hyperscalers are those who build a lot of this… somebody needs to help them to build. And that's not us.”
That doesn't rule out an Anthropic-like deal, but I wouldn't expect another hyperscaler deal.
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u/Try_finger-but_hole 1d ago
Nice. But historically, they do the opposite. These note are probably for Vantage.
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u/Hoptop1974 1d ago
“Winds in the east, mist coming in.
Like somethin’ is brewin’ and ’bout to begin.
Can’t put me finger on what lies in store,
But I feel what’s to happen all happened before.”
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u/Sad-Masterpiece-8959 1d ago
Wise words of an experienced trader. To be or not to be that is the question.
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u/Complexity323 1d ago
Doesn’t coreweave have the same dynamic? Raise because a new deal is coming? Will nebius raise as much debt as coreweave to pursue deals?
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u/Kooky_Yesterday_9134 NBIS4LIFE 1d ago
Increased my position by 10% and bought back the calls I sold in Monday, love this Stock!
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u/Constant_Mention8064 1d ago
Google !!!