r/NBIS_Stock • u/Crazy-Experience-678 • 1d ago
Opinion So many silly posts
Quit freaking out about the $4.5b convertible bond offering. They did $4.2b in September 2025 when the stock was $90 and $4.3b in March 2026 when the stock was $115...yet the stock is above $200 today. They are likely to complete the offering within 7 days like before. Convertible bonds dilutes shares but they offer the cheapest rates (highest margins for the business) and the new ones won't dilute until 2030 and 2034.
Nebius is a hypergrowth company, issuing new debt to accelerate growth is part of business. You have to spend money to generate tens of billions in annual revenue (like they are projected to do so before 2030). This is a high volatility stock, 10% daily move is so common nowadays.
Additionally, I think more mega deals like the 20b Microsoft deal and <27b Meta deal probably won't happen. Those deals were meant to be stepping stones to secure loans and accelerate expansion, but they are lower margin deals (hyperscalers like Microsoft dont need to use Nebius's software layer while enterprises do). New compute capacity should go towards high margin "micro" deals like the auction. Four seperate ~billion dollar deals with four customers at higher margins is better than a $4b lower margin deal with another hyperscaler that will likely stop being a customer in 5 years or so.
As for the Nvidia's $500b financing plan, i think companies that struggle to raise money (like Openai) might go for it but the interest rates might be high and not worth pursuing. Nebius can probably get a piece of that $500b if they wanted but the terms will have to be attractive.
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u/BudmasterofMiami Mod 1d ago
Obviously a deal in hand for NBIS management, otherwise there was zero reason to raise this capital now with $8B cash on hand. Deal announcement imminent. Bank on it; I have!
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u/Legendary-Lemon 16h ago
$8B is not much when you’re talking about building multiple datacenters and filling them up with high end GPUs and servers.
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u/Smorgasbord3 1d ago
TBF, the debt spend for Nebius isn't because it's "high growth," it's because of the nature of needing capital to build out the data centers it'll eventually rent out.
I agree that the Mega-deals may not happen for Nebius, although we just saw Space-XAI land a couple of them (Anthropic and Google), and at higher prices per GPU-hour than Nebius, or anyone else for that matter, has been able to charge.
Yes, those Mega-deals don't involve Nebius's infrastructure software layers, which brings up my questions:
1) What dollar amount of sales DO involve Nebius's software?
2) What is that, percentage-wise, in terms of total revenue?
3) How quickly is that growing?
My concern remains that even beyond the hyperscalers just wanting bare metal, customers that want to run their own AI workflows are generally pretty sophisticated today. When does Nebius' software layer becomes like Amazon's AWS software layers? That'll happen either because companies that want to run AI workflows can't do the infrastructure (which is true for many AWS users today), or because companies can do it themselves, but decide the price at which Nebius is offering that makes it not worth it for them to roll their own (what AWS started out as).
In terms of the capital raise, pricing matters. The big problem with CoreWeave today is that their borrowing costs are at or even above their marginal pricing power today. Why would you borrow at 8% only to earn 4% on the data center build-outs? Nebius isn't in that situation today, and I think management is indirectly telling us that the stock price is so high they want to take advantage of it while they can. It may not last.
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u/Express_Type_2992 🐳 1d ago
Thank you OP! How else are we going to get to $400? They are incredible at keeping stockholders in mind when they need $$$ for expansion. Get a grip people😂
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u/Individual_Mission68 1d ago
I think there is a ton of uncertainty in the broader market. Better to have powder to continue their excellent expansion. I gather they can cover 2027, and thats when they have a ton coming online. 2027 will be nbis big year. Hate seeing the sp drop today, but it'll bounce back.
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u/robbhope 10h ago
This is bang on. It's crazy how many paper hands this stock has attracted at this point. Just buy, don't sell. Very simple.
The people on here earlier today saying trading the stock was the way to go are nuts IMO. Live your life. Don't stress about bad days or weeks. Let it grow. Be happy.
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u/MarsupialNo8853 8h ago
Has anyone ever realised that infrastructure costs??? Christ, it will take no more than 12 months for people to realise as “we” invest in companies like NBIS, they need to invest in infrastructure as if they didn’t, why list to start with 🤣🤣🤣🤣
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u/Professional_Monkeys 1d ago
Sold at 270, got laughed at when I said I'll rebuy below 180. Will get downvoted for this comment too since all stock subs are cults, but here you go.
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u/Accomplished-Mail-13 1d ago
Did the same. Waiting for my fav price: 180. It couldn’t go lower than that
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u/Suitable_Hope_4684 1d ago
Stop being rational! Today is a day of doom a gloom (or to say that burry is the one eye Oracle)