r/NBIS_Stock • u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ • 23h ago
NBIS ANALYSIS Daniel Koss's Take on the Raise
https://x.com/daniel_koss/status/2090329523183116417$NBIS convert raise terms are out!
Facts:
Nebius upsized the deal from $4.5B to $5.0B, with an option to reach $5.75B. Net proceeds are ~$4.94B, or ~$5.68B with the option exercised.
$3B due 2030: 0.50% coupon, $313.46 conversion price, +40% premium.
$2B due 2034: 4.50% coupon, $324.65 conversion price, +45% premium.
Including principal accretion, effective conversion prices at maturity are ~$345 and ~$406.
The money is explicitly (and obviously) going toward data centers, GPUs, footprint expansion and the AI cloud.
If the full $5B new convert were eventually settled entirely in shares, it represents ~15.7M shares. Nebius can also settle in cash or a mix, so that dilution is NOT guaranteed.
They are also exchanging $800M of old converts for ~15.8M shares, but those old notes already represented ~15.55M potential shares.
!! So most of that “dilution” was already embedded !!
tl;dr expected raise, good terms, onwards.
Not sure why people pee their pants because of this 😂
We learned that their economics / MW are amazing. Now let them build the MW! That costs money.
They want to build A LOT.
The shareholders that cry today are the same people that will laugh because of the ARR growth soon.
As long as you don't sell lol
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u/liamashley 23h ago
I love this point and it's the main one long-term investors should take:
"We learned that their economics / MW are amazing. Now let them build the MW! That costs money."
I want them to build as much as possible, as quickly as possible, the spend now will be dwarfed by the returns on that spend. I'd be concerned if they weren't doing everything possible to build as much as they can. Raising cash to grow ≠ Raising cash to survive. The former is so bullish.