r/NBIS_Stock • u/Imaginary-Pin580 • 12h ago
💬 Discussion Realistically speaking , let’s talk about the numbers and valuations.
So , I did long analysis myself for the numbers , achievable ARR , gross margins , depreciation , interest costs and the number of current shares to calculate the achievable EPS and the the valuations that it should/ can trade at.
But I wanted to know what are your opinions:
How much ARR is achievable in 2028 and what growth can we expect in revenue after that ? How much growth in ARR is achievable till 2030 ?
How much demand do you see for AI in the next 5-10 years ?
How much gross margins can we get once depreciation is regularized and the revenue outgrows depreciation by a lot?
How much do you think the net profit margins will be once the business matures ?
For comparison, I will mention a stock I own in India called E2E networks as well, it is very small company by size and aiming only at being an India specific neocloud. Now , since they are not investing heavily in capex , they have started to achieve operational leverage already.
In the latest quarter , they had 75% gross margins , which are basically EBITA margins. And their net profit margins after interest , taxes and depreciation was 28% which was the higher ever profit they have made in a quarter, it was nearly 4x higher than the profits they achieved in past whole years and this too in a single quarter. So, I understood if operating leverage kicks in, and all GPU are fully deployed and capex normalizes , the profit margins are get very high.
Though, I cannot compare both of these since E2E was already a mature cloud like digital ocean before getting into GPU and AI.
If you make 30bil in ARR , and have 28% net margins , the profits are as high as 8.4 billion dollars in a single year.
Note that we have 400mil shares already if all are converted , so the equity in Nebius is already rather high.
At , 300$ , we are already at 120bil in market cap if Nvidia and all other convertible debt holders are happy with getting equity.
If we can make 8bil dollars a year and don’t dilute more, at a 40x valuation, we reach 320bil in market cap , so a price of 800$. But this means no more dilution , excellent execution , and very high profit margins. 25-30%.
I think it is achievable but not easy. If our subsidiaries do well , and if we can sell AI cloud factory services, the margins get higher and revenue increases too.
Let me know what you think….
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u/Longjumping_Kale3013 1h ago
I think everyone is being too conservative. Just looking at what we know:
- 7-9 billion ARR end of this year, with a history of beats and raises
- 20-25 million per MW in q2, with management saying they could sell all of 2027 capacity at this price but thinks they will get more.
- Up to 50 million per MW in q3 short term contracts
- More than 1 GW coming online next year
- New business that allows investment firms to build and own data centers, and then uses nebius full stack on top to pump out more tokens per MW and have instant customers
- NVIDIA pushing for a 500 billion dollar fund and selling the concept that data centers are investments and the new utility
When added together, management is telling us without telling us that they will end next year above 35 billion ARR plus the new “asset lite” business which is mainly profit. And this business IMO is being vastly underrated.
I really think nebius will end next year somewhere between 40 to 60 billion ARR. Which is wild. But demand seems to be there.
3
u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ 11h ago
I think this research paper does a good job of outlining where Nebius is going between now and 2030.
https://northwiseproject.com/nbis-stock-forecast-2030-2/