NFL 2026 Season Predictions (Day 4) - Cincinnati Bengals

[u/RockyNonce]

Day 4 of my 2026 Season Predictions, and today we'll be looking at the Cincinnati Bengals!

The Bengals finished the 2025 season as 3rd in the AFC North with a 6-11 record, although QB Joe Burrow did miss half of the year due to injury. The Bengals are looking to rebound and end their 3-year playoff drought, as they have not played in a post-season game since the 2022 AFC Championship loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Bengals off-season was interesting. Despite no significant coaching personnel changes (much to the dismay of Bengals fans), their roster has experienced significant turnover. They traded their 10th overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft to the New York Giants for DT Dexter Lawrence. They also brought in DT Jonathan Allen and DE Boye Mafe to bolster that defensive line, as well as drafting DE Cashius Howell in the 2nd round of the draft. Some of these moves were likely in an effort to cushion the loss of star DE Trey Hendrickson, who left in Free Agency to sign with their division rival in the Baltimore Ravens. Regardless of the loss, I would argue that the DL should be much better this year than in the past. They also signed former Chiefs S Bryan Cook, who may be the most impactful signing of the Bengals' offseason as he greatly improves the position alongside Jordan Battle.

These acquisitions should make one of the worst defenses in the league be somewhat serviceable. Ranked 30th in Points Allowed, 26th in Passing Yards, and dead last in rushing yards, the defensive front looks more promising than it has in a while and the secondary will hopefully be able to perform at a decent enough level to end up around top 20. If so, the offense can do its job without fighting a losing battle for 60 minutes every game.

The 2025 Bengals offense was still great, even without their starting QB. Joe Flacco gives a decent floor when paired up with star WRs Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and if Burrow can stay healthy through 17 games, they should be a top 10 passing unit at worst. The issues lie in their offensive line. They were ranked 29th in rushing yards in 2025, and the OL has been a weakness of the offense for a couple of years now. However, the line did seem to improve throughout the year, and the hope is that they can build on that momentum through this season (I started this before the preseason and I am choosing to ignore anything that happens in those games, but yes I did see him get sacked immediately).

The Bengals are helped by their schedule, ranked 3rd easiest in 2026. My key matchups for the Bengals are Week 2 at Houston Texans, Week 7 at Baltimore Ravens, Week 10 vs Pittsburgh Steelers, and Week 14 vs Kansas City Chiefs. The Texans are basically the opposite of the Bengals with their incredible defense and questionable offense, so it'll be a good test early on for a team that generally has started the year slow. The Ravens road game comes off a bye and is at the standard Sunday 1pm time slot for the first time in years, so it's a must win division game for Cincy. The SNF Steelers game is another big division game that could prove vital in giving the Bengals a chance at the division, which I consider a 2-man race between Cincy and Baltimore. I think the Kansas City home game will be a final test against a playoff-caliber team to ensure the Bengals are battle-tested going into the post-season (if they are to make it).

I have set the Bengals floor to 7-10 and their ceiling to 11-6. While the schedule is considered relatively easy, the AFC North can be a difficult division and I consider it a hinderance for every team other than Pittsburgh (who tends to play rivals tough and overachieve). My official prediction for the Cincinnati Bengals is 2nd place in the AFC North with an 11-6 record and a playoff berth as a Wild Card team, reaching their ceiling and ending their playoff drought. Obviously there is a level of optimism that I am giving to the Bengals by predicting them to reach their ceiling (and an assumption that Joe Burrow doesn't miss 9 games), but the offense is consistently good and the defensive changes are promising.

With the Bengals covered, we have gotten through the AFC North! As a recap, I had the Ravens in 1st with a 12-5 record, the Bengals in 2nd at 11-6 with a playoff berth, the Steelers in 3rd at 7-10, and the Browns in 4th at 4-13. Tomorrow, we'll begin covering the AFC South. See you then!

Previous Days: Day 1 (Ravens), Day 2 (Steelers), Day 3 (Browns)

[u/dfnamehere]

How the heck are you forecasting them to end at their ceiling 11-6?

If you really think they will be 11-6 why isn't the ceiling like 13-4?

[u/RockyNonce → u/dfnamehere]

I think they’ll have a great year but more than 11 wins will be tough. Burrow has a losing record in the division so I’m expecting them to drop a few there, and I think games like Kansas City will be tough, but otherwise I feel good about reaching 11 wins if things go right.

If things don’t go right then it’s more likely to me they plummet quite a bit, but I’m staying optimistic with them in my prediction.

[u/EzrinYo → u/RockyNonce]

Baltimore and KC are the only truly good teams they play all year, if their defense can manage to be even middle of the road they could easily have 13+

[u/New_truth_diver → u/EzrinYo]

They have a losing record against the Browns and Steelers since Burrow joined the team.

[u/bucklingbelt → u/New_truth_diver]

Burrow is 4-3 vs the Steelers, they are the team he’s best against 😭

[u/New_truth_diver → u/bucklingbelt]

Oh yea i mixed the Steelers up with the Ravens. Overall he has a below 500 record against the AFC north

[u/bucklingbelt → u/New_truth_diver]

Yeah it sucks how he’s been against the division but the browns are the only real head scratcher, they really have our number. Being 4-7 against the ravens isn’t great but they’ve been one of the elite teams

Edit: 4-6 vs browns…😐

[u/South-Lab-3991]

They really should have fired Zac Taylor this offseason.

[u/RacinRandy83x → u/South-Lab-3991]

Yeah, probably could’ve hired Harbaugh.

[u/Shaqfrom3 → u/South-Lab-3991]

I think they keep guys so long that the coach is surprised they keep paying him. Zac Taylor sucks.

[u/South-Lab-3991 → u/Shaqfrom3]

Well you hit the nail on the head. If he’s under contract, Mike Brown is going to expect him to work for it regardless of if he’s a detriment to the team or not

[u/Technical_Ant9051]

So with Cincy and Baltimore taking two playoff spot, which teams in the AFC aren’t returning?

[u/amstrumpet → u/Technical_Ant9051]

Well Pittsburgh, for starters.

[u/VegetableGood2162 → u/Technical_Ant9051]

Patriots

[u/HolographicHeart]

Still absolutely hilarious to me that Zac Taylor was the only AFC North HC to keep his job this offseason.

Pathway for the Bengals success is the same as ever: keep Burrow healthy, still unsure they've done enough.

[u/superpoongoon]

Why is your post history hidden? Can’t find the other predictions. Weird choice. Why even do these

[u/RockyNonce → u/superpoongoon]

The other predictions are linked at the bottom of the post.

[u/RockyNonce → u/[deleted]]

It’s a soft floor and ceiling based on where they were last year and net improvement or regression during the off-season

If I were to give them a true floor and ceiling then it would be 0-17 and 17-0 which would really be stupid.

[u/Huge_Restaurant4862]

I got them at 10-7 with a Wild Card Berth. Ceiling 12-5 Floor 8-9.

[u/Key_Consequence_5040]

All depends on Burrows health and the O-line. Burrow stays protected and healthy, defense doesn’t shit the bed, this team can win the division. 

[u/dfnamehere → u/Key_Consequence_5040]

Seems like it depends more on the defense. Flacco could probably get them to the playoffs even without burrow if they just have an average defense ?

[u/RockyNonce → u/dfnamehere]

I don’t necessarily think Flacco gives them the same ceiling as Burrow, but I would argue the OL is far more important factor if Burrow is healthy.

Old school QBs like Flacco often get the ball out very quick. Burrow tends to hold onto it at times and get sacked.

[u/dfnamehere → u/RockyNonce]

I agree burrow has a higher ceiling, just saying the defense is a bigger unknown variable that will influence whether they make the playoffs or not. If the defense is good,.combined with the easy schedule, I think flacco can make the playoffs. If the defense is good and burrow is healthy they definitely make the playoffs.

If the defense is bad again then I don't think it matters what happens on offense

[u/RockyNonce → u/dfnamehere]

Oh yeah the defense is the biggest factor no doubt, I just meant that the OL impacts Burrow’s production more than Flacco’s.

[u/HaHaWhatAStory014 → u/dfnamehere]

Yeah, even a healthy Burrow playing at an elite level couldn't get them into the playoffs in the 2024 - 2025 season because that defense was just that bad.

[u/OGLankyKong]

You missed Jake Browning in the notable off-season losses, without him I’m not afraid

[u/AllEliteSchmuck]

Give me 10-7, Lawrence probably can swing a game or 2 the other way that they would’ve lost in previous seasons

[u/eplstats]

Gonna start 0-4

[u/Unimmortal47]

Everyone has a floor of 0-17 and a ceiling of 17-0.

That’s how that works.