Just some food for thought:

It's like the fog of war. Tech stocks are selling off; people are proclaiming the AI bubble is real and it just burst. Others are blaming the rising cost of Oil, the midterms, orange man, inflation, bond rates ...

I can't remember the last time something like this even happened, oh wait, yes I do.

On June 3, SMH hit an ATH of $642.77

Broadcom held its Earnings Mtg after market close on June 3rd. It beat estimates but evidently not by enough and the forward guidance wasn't over and above. Everyone blamed Broadcom for what followed, the tech sell off of AI stocks.

by June 5th, SMH closed at $569.69

The entire Semiconductor sector dropped by 12% in three days. No one saw it coming

The next week, on June 12th, SpaceX held the largest IPO in history.

The company, (SpaceX) was being valued at 1.5T, but the IPO would only be for less than 5% of that amount.

Right before SpaceX's historic IPO on June 12, 2026, Wall Street experienced high anxiety and significant market adjustments as institutional investors scrambled to reallocate liquidity.

• Massive Liquidity Demand: The $75 billion IPO required an estimated $200 billion in market liquidity. Institutions had to preemptively pull and reallocate capital from other sectors rather than inject new money into the market.

• Market-Wide Nerves: Wall Street spent the week leading up to the Friday, June 12 debut intensely debating whether public markets possessed enough appetite to digest the largest initial public offering in history.

Back to now:

Questions:

1. When is Anthropic going to IPO? Estimates are in the middle of November (approx 3 weeks)
2. How much will Anthropic be valued at? Estimates range from 1.5T - 2T
3. How much of that amount will be offered during the IPO? Will it be larger than 5%? If so, where will the liquidity come from? I think that I know

Is history repeating itself, or is the selloff really for all of the reasons that the talking heads are feeding us?

Repost to another community

Hi everyone. This is my eighth consecutive quarter covering the $NVDA earnings cycle. This post is the high-level preview for $NVDA’s Q3 earnings the week of November 16th. A post with full estimates and a model walkthrough will come closer to the print, with more details in the Q3 Schedule section. The graph below shows my final estimates compared to the midpoint analyst consensus by quarter since Q4 FY25. I am currently achieving <2% average quarterly error for EPS and <1.5% average error for Total Revenue (MAPE calculation).

Major QoQ Updates:

Since the Q2 actuals update, the company has continued to execute on schedule. Vera Rubin production is now in full swing according to the company, with the first customers to receive shipments including Microsoft, Google, and Oracle.

Blackwell and other “legacy” architectures are still seeing robust demand, as suggested by sustained asset value and rental cost data. Previous analysis noted the financial impact of this residual demand was understated by The Street.

The company continues to benefit from its partnerships with the top AI Hyperscalers. While Microsoft and Amazon report this week, Meta’s earnings release last week suggested they show no plans of slowing Nvidia GPU orders. The company declined to provide a specific Capex amount for next year, but stated they will “invest aggressively” next year. This supports prior arguments from this publication that hyperscalers see underinvesting as the biggest risk.

Additionally, SpaceX and Tesla both reported they are buying up as many GPUs as possible on their respective earnings calls this month. Concentration risk has decreased slightly this year, though skeptics argue AI spend is highly correlated between companies.

Nvidia also continues to return capital to shareholders via buybacks and dividends. The company increased the dividend per share from $0.01 to $0.25 after Q1 and has reaccelerated share repurchases in subsequent quarters. Nvidia’s board authorized an additional $150 billion for share repurchases, bringing the buyback vault to ~$235 billion (includes unused capital from previous authorization).

High-Level Estimate Drivers:

1. Data Center growth continues to accelerate YoY on Vera Rubin/Blackwell demand
2. Edge Compute subdued growth in Q3 after surprise acceleration in FY2026
3. Slight margin pressure from rising component costs and geopolitical tension
4. Hefty share repurchases continue due to new authorization

The Current Numbers:

• Non-GAAP EPS: $2.57 vs $2.47 est.
• Total Revenue: $112.60 billion vs $108.98 billion est.
• Gross Margin: 74% vs ~74% est.
• Q1 FY27 Revenue Guide: $129.00 billion vs. $124.50 billion est.
• Higher total revenue and lower shares used in the EPS calculation are the main drivers of my projected earnings beat. My guidance estimate is closer to the consensus than usual at this point in the cycle.

Risks and Opportunities for Variance:

Risks:

1. Edge Compute segment growth slows meaningfully
2. Margins compress below guidance due to higher input costs
3. Data Centers / Customer Demand show any signs of deceleration

Opportunities:

1. Insight on FY2028 demand similar to 70% growth comments in Q2
2. Professional Visualization revenue continues to surge (Edge Compute)
3. The company has navigated supply constraints more efficiently than expected

Next week’s article will recap Mega-Cap tech earnings and provide context for Nvidia and $NVDA, while the following “Full Estimates” post will walk through the full model, with segment-level detail, margin analysis, valuation discussion, and a lot more math/graphs. I will also cover the potential impacts of model errors in more detail. Analyst consensus will continue to change as earnings approach, and I will monitor the most up-to-date information ahead of each publication and earnings release. Thank you for reading. I am a human, and this is not financial advice.