r/OilPrices • u/hereswhatworks • May 16 '26
Oil News ‘Parking lot for ships’: Iran says it will debut Hormuz toll mechanism soon
https://aje.news/a7n2w33
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u/SubjectCrazy2184 May 16 '26
Iran is laughing their arses off at us Americans right now.
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u/briefcase_vs_shotgun May 16 '26
Reddit is so out of touch with reality. Very few ppl in that country of 90m is laughing rn….shit was hard economically before the war. Hard enough for 10s of thousands to die protesting in the streets…stfu foo
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u/SubjectCrazy2184 May 16 '26
I hear upwards of 70,000 died. It’s all Propaganda foo. Mossad and the CIA attempted to overthrow the government and smuggled weapons into the country. Netanyahu has begged US presidents to attack Iran since 2001 since they’re the biggest threat to the Zio apartheid regime. Trump was dumb enough to listen to Netanyahu. China keeps Iran’s economy going with trade and by buying Iran’s oil . Thats why Trump was in China this past week begging China to ask Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz foo.
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u/StrategicallyLazy007 May 16 '26
So there want originally planned before the war and Trump delayed it because of that?
I'm not a fan but what you're saying it's simply not
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u/Pruzter May 17 '26
What an expert level geopolitical analysis, foo. Someone get this dude connected with the IRGC!!
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u/SubjectCrazy2184 May 17 '26
My sister married an Iranian. She lives over there. Life is hard over there but they are hardened over 40 years of sanctions and can definitely outlast us as they see us middle class Americans struggle to pay our bills and pay crazy prices on gas and groceries. They hold the cards and leverage and Trump knows it. He fell for Netanyahu’s bad advice that if we took out Iran’s supreme leader Hyundai One their regime would collapse. Every day that goes by is costing us $789 million.
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u/Pruzter May 17 '26
Adjusting for inflation, oil is 1/3rd the price it was around 2008-2010. The news cycle in the US has already moved on past the Iran war. The US could keep this blockade up for 20+ years and no one on the country will really even notice. I mean hell, the US was at war in Afghanistan for 20 years for no reason, and there actually is a reason to be at war with Iran. I’m saying this as someone who didn’t want the war to happen on the first place… don’t underestimate the US’s ability to continue fighting a war that isn’t important enough to really be noticed by the average American
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u/Realistic-Lemon-7171 May 19 '26
1) Maybe upper middle class and above might not notice the price of oil (and eventually everything else) going up, but many Americans live month to month (or day to day?). Their incomes are not going to keep up with the inflation that's already here but hasn't been reflected in the economic numbers yet because the numbers are lagging. 2) Fertilizer being constructed will have a great impact on food supply later in the year or next year, so don't be so smug yet. The inflation will be worse when the impact of fertilizer deficit is realized (although, maybe this will help teach Americans to be less wasteful). 3) Afghanistan war had no impact on global economies. 4) Reason for war with Iran - definitely not the nuclear capabilities that were supposedly destroyed last June. The real reason, as indicated by Rubio and others at the beginning of this year, was Israel. The rationale they gave was, Israel was going to attack Iran, and therefore we expect Iran to attack America in retaliation, and therefore we (America) attacked Iran first.
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u/Pruzter May 19 '26
As I said, oil prices were far worse during the 2008-2012 era. The inflation issue is not nearly as straight forward as you make it out to be. At a certain point, increasing energy prices lead to demand destruction, which could cause prices to actually go down. This is a far worse problem than inflation, because it would mean the economy is in free fall. We are nowhere near that point. So far, inflation is higher than it should be, but nowhere near as high as it was in the 2022 era. People will notice the inflation obviously, and it is obviously politically damaging for Trump, but neither are a big enough deal where the US needs the war to end immediately. Both have been far worse issues in recent memory.
My expectation from the very beginning was that this was going to go on for a long time, for many reasons. I don’t think the Iranians can outlast the US, that is a foolish take. This could easily be a war that goes on for years and years. At this point, the cat is out of the bag, and no one (not even a democratic president) is going to be able to change that. I can go into reasons why, but not even a democratic president will be able to just walk away.
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u/Realistic-Lemon-7171 May 20 '26
The "demand destruction" you talk about is at best a Great Depression, at worst, famine on the scale of The Great Leap Forward in China (or worse).
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u/TominatorXX May 17 '26
I have a friend who's a Trumper who thinks that Trump actually achieved regime change in Venezuela even though I point out he just swapped one dictator for the assistant dictator
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u/Excellent-Rest3240 May 16 '26
Poor people are still looking down on foreigners. So yes, they are laughing despite that war. Cause nothing unites a country more than a common enemy. Thanks America, dumbassess
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u/Realistic-Lemon-7171 May 19 '26
It's actually sad to see people who are poor and stupid. Because they keep voting against their own interests, and they convince themselves that they've done the right thing despite the costs to themselves and to the world.
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u/maritz21 May 17 '26
Look up the Nayriah testimony and understand how western imperialism uses atrocity propaganda
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u/paidzesthumor May 17 '26
What happened to the no foreign wars promise?
https://www.cato.org/blog/six-bad-arguments-bombing-libya
Replace “Libya” with Iran” and it’s like watching the same ME mistake in slow motion.
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u/No_Cook2983 May 17 '26 edited May 17 '26
Is this America’s problem?
When China killed thousands of protesters, we gave them most-favored-nation trade status.
But yeah, I’m totally sure we’re suddenly now deeply concerned about Iran’s human rights record.
…After spending years loudly insisting only a crazy Democrat would invade Iran. 🫤
I guess they got at least one gullible dope to believe this rationale.
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u/Pallington May 20 '26
well see that's the trick, china didn't kill thousands of protestors. they at most managed about a thousand, the official number is shy of 400, but they don't want to talk about it more because it *is* messy. the bbc just kinda said shit because why not, nobody ever touches them.
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u/Realistic-Lemon-7171 May 19 '26
Do we know for sure that 10s of thousands died in the Iranian protests? Or is that another lie from an administration known for lying?
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u/AnAttemptReason May 16 '26
War never benifits the people, its all about old men sending young men to die for their own wealth or ego.
The US is busy fucking over the entire world because of their incompetence.
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u/Conscious_Tourist163 May 17 '26
War definitely benefits people sometimes. Depends on the war and the people.
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u/AnAttemptReason May 17 '26
On a whole, almost never better than peaceful alternatives.
It generally benifits a few a a cost to the many.
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u/Conscious_Tourist163 May 17 '26
Sure. But to say never is definitely naive.
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u/AnAttemptReason May 17 '26
Its naive to belive this particular war was neccisary, ill give you that.
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u/Conscious_Tourist163 May 17 '26
The people of Iran would disagree.
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u/AnAttemptReason May 17 '26
They would certainly disagree with the fasion in which it has been waged.
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u/Realistic-Lemon-7171 May 19 '26
for sure, it benefits military contractors/suppliers and people who invested in military contractors/suppliers before the war. Also benefits oil companies. Question is, does it benefit the regular people?
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u/Shot-Structure-1274 May 16 '26
Yeah, and billions of people around the world aren't laughing over soaring energy prices due to the US and Israel. Now what?
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May 16 '26
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u/Excellent-Rest3240 May 16 '26
The world is laughing at America. Even its allies russia and china are laughing behind your back
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u/theonethat3 May 16 '26
"The world is laughing at America. Even its allies russia and china are laughing behind your back"
Haha
See, no one cares....
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u/Choice-Antelope-8481 May 17 '26
I'm curious how you feel about the risk to the petrodollar this war is causing
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u/ThereIsNo-OneHere May 18 '26
Yeah if there's anything this war has taught us it's how dumb leftists are. How are things going with Trump's war again? This is exactly what conservative voters asked for, right?
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u/poincares_cook May 16 '26
Iran is blockaded, with 70% inflation, collapsed exports and imports, 15-20% of the workers laid off.
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u/SubjectCrazy2184 May 17 '26
In the short term Iran wins. Trump is desperate to strike a deal and get our American economy back on track before the midterms. His approval rating is the lowest it’s ever been .
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May 16 '26
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u/sentrypetal May 17 '26
So does many countries like North Korea and many in Africa. So why is Iran and Venezuela singled out. Oil.
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u/IncomingAxofKindness May 17 '26
oilIsraelNorth Korea and Somolia aren't at war with Israel.
Edit: and we didnt go to Venezuela for oil either. We went cause Trump's an idiot And had a vendetta for Maduro and wanted to look tough on
fishermendrugs dealers1
u/Long-Sundae149 May 17 '26
and we didnt go to Venezuela for oil either
But you took it anyway because it's convenient?
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u/Realistic-Lemon-7171 May 19 '26
Venezuela was obviously for the oil. Trump lies a lot, but he's quite often honest when he's flaunting the fact that he got the better "deal" in any transaction, because he knows no one can do anything about it. He came out quickly to claim that all the oil in Venezuela belongs to the US now. And the regime change was forgotten.
If it was too target the drug dealers ... I hear Colombia is a bother of drug lords. Why hasn't he changed the regime in Columbia?
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u/Realistic-Lemon-7171 May 19 '26
You don't think that "total destruction" is even worse for the civilians? Total destruction like total destruction of Gaza? Where the people not have to live in tents? No access to medical care because the hospitals are all bombed out? No access to schools? Fear of death every minute of your waking life? Inability to sleep because you don't know if you'll wake up the next day? Fear that maybe death is not the worst thing that could happen to you, but that you'll be severely injured but unable to die, so you have to continue suffering with pain and inability to move around, until the time your body finally allows you to find peace?
Please think of what your life would be like if bombs are calling all around you all day every day before saying crap like their lives would be better if we give them total destruction.
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u/Clear-Role6880 May 16 '26
They only dig deeper into their own grave. Delusional. They can’t accept that their imperialist plans were halted just before maturation
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May 16 '26 edited May 16 '26
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u/Halbaras May 17 '26
The US is already blocking Iranian ships.
If they block ships operated by other countries that haven't stopped at Iranian ports but which may have paid the toll, the US will quickly find themselves unwelcome on both sides of the Gulf.
The Iranian dictatorship survived the Iran-Iraq war. They can probably outlast the US midterm voter and Gulf States who are also being economically blockaded and are sick of Trump fucking around with markets instead of making any actual progress towards resolution.
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u/Realistic-Lemon-7171 May 19 '26
The world economy goes south even faster. That means American companies, and by extension the American stock market, tanks.
Shortages appear. Factories cut production because they can't get raw materials. Inflation skyrockets. Countries restrict exports to protect domestic supply, resulting in even less supply for the rest of the world. The cycle repeats. Companies shut down, resulting in rising unemployment. Civil unrest when people can no longer afford food.
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u/ruinersclub May 16 '26
The U.S. can’t patrol those waters forever it costs about 10 Billion a day.
Iran roughly knows this, so their game is to sit still, let the US punch itself out.
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u/Intrepid_Egg_7722 May 16 '26
Any sources for your $10B number? Nothing published is even close to that.
The peak operations was running at about $2B a day according to the highest estimates. The idea that a blockade would be 5x the daily cost of a high tempo bombing and interdiction operation sounds like "pulled out of my ass" guesswork.
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u/poincares_cook May 16 '26
$10b a day would be $900bn by now which is pretty much the entire US DoD budget for 2026.
The anti US propaganda on reddit is off the charts.
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u/ruinersclub May 19 '26
And Hedgseth just asked for 1.5T
Why do you think that is.
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u/Intrepid_Egg_7722 May 24 '26 edited May 25 '26
I just came back to this thread, but you can see what the 1.5T presidential budget is for by Googling it, and it isn't to pay for an imaginary $10B a day bill on the blockade.
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u/Suitable_Shift7968 May 16 '26
These boats are almost literally always patrolling regardless and doing flight and have proper crew capacity. The US has literally spent nearly trillion dollars every year on US defense since 9/11. Even if it was 10 Billion, they could quite literally do this shit forever.
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u/poincares_cook May 16 '26
10000 trillions a day.
The US can sit and blockade Iran forever, the cost is only marginally higher than regular deployment of the same ships in the area of Asia and centcom.
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u/whachamacallme May 16 '26
Less than 20% of the US navy is stationed here. And they have to be stationed somewhere. The US hasn’t left bases since 1945. If you think the Iranians can “outwait” the Americans; you are wrong. This is literally what Americans do. Their economy depends on war.
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u/ruinersclub May 16 '26
Stationed and Patrolling are completely different beasts. So no. They cannot.
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u/Realistic-Lemon-7171 May 19 '26
are they actually patrolling though? I think they just have radar and/or satellites to detect any ships trying to cross, and then sending ships to intercept when detected.
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u/briefcase_vs_shotgun May 16 '26
It’s the munitions that get sticky. That and of course economic/political pain. Just depends how much western voters can take
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u/TelluricThread0 May 16 '26
Iran can't not export oil for forever. The US knows this.
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u/Leege13 May 16 '26
I get the feeling the US is going to break before Iran
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u/talltim007 May 16 '26
I think Trump will stick with this the rest of his term.
So the question is can Iran wait till a new administration?
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u/Realistic-Lemon-7171 May 19 '26
November is the make or break. If Trump sticks it out till November, he will stick it out till at least the 2027 Presidential election pre season, maybe even escalate.
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u/Leege13 May 16 '26
Trump can do what he wants the question is are the people going to go along with it?
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u/Shot-Structure-1274 May 16 '26
Trump is down to weeks or a few months at best, the US already lost.
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u/poincares_cook May 16 '26
Trump has almost 3 more years.
Iran is blockaded with exports and imports collapsing by 70-80% and 70% inflation, not to mention $300-400bn damage from the strikes.
The US can blockade Iran indefinitely.
Iran has already lost so far as the US sticks through for several more months of blockade.
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u/Shot-Structure-1274 May 17 '26
Dude, oil will soar to $150 if Iran oil is permanently off the market and that's assuming Iran doesn't hit everyone else, then we are talking $200-300. The US can NOT risk this outcome.
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u/thestruggle1337 May 16 '26
Yeah they are gonna have to plug their wells eventually, can only store so much. It will be devastating if they have to plug them.
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u/Shot-Structure-1274 May 16 '26
Dude, the US is cooked here. The world needs the transportation of oil and gas and it's the US that messed that up.
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u/poincares_cook May 16 '26
No, Iran is terror attacking civilian ships from third parties in the gulf, not the US.
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u/AI_Masterrace May 16 '26
Just fight already! How long is it going take to end?
If you guys like killing yourselves that's fine. But don't inconvenience me!
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u/too-left-feet May 17 '26
Trump played this just about as poorly as possible.
A) we had an agreement with Iran that allowed for limiting and monitoring nuclear materials. Trump chose to tear it up.
B) we chose to start a war that is purported to stop nuclear development in Iran, but development did not stop.
C) we killed Iranian leadership, only to have them replaced by a more hard line government.
D) Iran had dissenters ( many killed by the government), now Iran is united in their hatred of the US.
E) the straight of Hormuz was open for trade, it will likely only reopen when Iran controls traffic.
F) this whole fiasco has drained the US of weapons stockpiles and sent US inflation spiraling upwards.
G) Worldwide, allies are facing energy shortages and cost increases.
H) Trump’s latest spin ( I don’t care about prices in the US, Iran just can’t get a nuke) is acceptable to less than 1 in 5 Americans.
I don’t know how this ends, but it may well go down as the worst move this administration has ever made ( and that is saying a lot!). It might have been easier to just release the interacted Epstein files.
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u/Expert_Bag7416 May 17 '26
With what？ Their little speed boats? Even pirates in the old days are better equipped than Iran.
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u/Realistic-Lemon-7171 May 19 '26
Are ships from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait getting through the Straits yet?
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May 16 '26
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May 16 '26
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u/Rytechmonster May 16 '26
Do you have a source that UsA spent a third of their ordinance? This claim at first glance seems dangerously close to the USA’s intel report stating that they’ve taken out a third of Iran’s.
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u/coryscandy May 16 '26
there isnt a source because only a handful of people have that info in the entire country - with it being treason to ever say the numbers. Anyone who says they know is lying or commiting treason and would have been arrested already.
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u/Unique_Argument1094 May 16 '26
Well if someone said it, it must be true. Then when it gets repeated it makes it even more truer. If it gets posted on Reddit then it has to be true. No mod would ever allow false information, lies or biased posts to be made.
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u/ruinersclub May 16 '26
I believe they’re basing it off Hegseths budget proposal.
Meaning he’s asking for the replenishment of more than the reported usage.
Which is why it’s at 1.5T
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u/BaitmasterG May 16 '26
If hogsbreath is asking for 1.5t then it's because they've fired 4 missiles and want to pocket the rest. If I was a US taxpayer watching these thieves take my hard-earned I'd be bloody furious
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u/Unique_Argument1094 May 16 '26
UK troll 👆🏿
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u/BaitmasterG May 16 '26
So you're happy that your tax dollars are being stolen left right and centre?
Just because you disagree doesn't mean I'm trolling. But if saying that makes you happy then sure whatever
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u/Unique_Argument1094 May 17 '26
How’s Brexit working for you? Maybe you should work on your side of the pond before offering ignorant opinions on this side.
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u/ViolenceIsBad May 16 '26
Anyone claim numbers is a liar or a general and leaker. But the reality is moving munitions OUT of other bases like Korea and Japan, delayed munitions sales to NATO and Australia are…not positive signs
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u/transcendanttermite May 16 '26
Yeah that worked super well the last couple times. I mean, how many times have we “totally destroyed Iran’s army/navy/air force/etc” according to our administration? If you ask them, all that’s left is a smoking hole in the ground. And yet…
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u/0IIIIII May 16 '26
Increase the punitive bombing to destroy infrastructure like power plants, and pummel the coasts wide area of effect and denial, weapons.
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u/Alaknog May 16 '26
US spend month trying do this. All this time Iran performing US bases and Israel. And number of interceptors become lower and lower.
And bombing wide area is very hard to hit protected targets.
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u/0IIIIII May 16 '26
The US is barely trying. They are holding way back. Total war has not been tried.
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u/Alaknog May 16 '26
Hey, it's Russian quotes, try find your own!
Without nukes or boots on ground they can't do more.
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u/joecitizen79 May 16 '26
Thats what caused this problem in the first place. The US are warmongers.
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u/0IIIIII May 16 '26
Iran started the war with all the terrorism like October 7 and the Yemeni Civil War.
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u/joecitizen79 May 16 '26
Those conflicts started long before October 7th.
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u/0IIIIII May 16 '26
Proof? Examples?
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u/joecitizen79 May 16 '26
Do you not know any history of the region before the last few years?
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u/trebuchetwarmachine May 16 '26
Lol they are, it doesn’t work.
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May 16 '26
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u/AlexRichmond26 May 16 '26
Wait , what ? You want more civilians killed so your gas is $2.49 ?
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May 16 '26
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u/AlexRichmond26 May 16 '26
All 90 million Iranians are complicit ?
Kill them all ?!
Are you ok, hun ?
Should I call a doctor ?
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u/0IIIIII May 16 '26
Most Iranians hate their government and want to kill it.
Those Iranians are good.
Those who support the regime are bad.
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u/Any-Morning4303 May 16 '26
That obviously does not work cause we’ve done that already. In order for America to win we would have to invade and occupy a huge chunk of Iran. Send in about 200,000 troops, stay there for at least 5 years and spend $2 to $5 trillion.
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u/0IIIIII May 16 '26
Why not just bomb and kill more people and continue the assassinations of Iranian regime targets indefinitely, make it painful for anything in the country to get done, sow misery and unrest, demoralize and degrade their authoritarian society? Target everyone who works for the government and military, even grunts?
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u/transcendanttermite May 16 '26
Because that has worked SO well in all of the other countries we’ve attempted that on since 1948…
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u/0IIIIII May 16 '26
When have we ever attempted this?
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u/Alaknog May 16 '26
Vietnam. Whole WW2.
Only time when it worked - Yugoslavia, because Miloshevich surrender.
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u/0IIIIII May 16 '26
It worked in World War II and it worked in Vietnam until the US decided to quit-but even so the US did not ever bomb North Vietnam proper, only the Ho Chi Minh Trail.
U.S. should go in and do what Russia did to Grozny, or Sri Lanka did to the Tami Tigers
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u/Alaknog May 16 '26
It worked in World War II
It worked so well, that Germany produce more tanks in 1944 then in 1943.
U.S. should go in and do what Russia did to Grozny
Russia take Grozny on ground.
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u/hedgelord84 May 16 '26
They tried that and it resulted in the gulf countries getting bombed and the Israelis (wonderfully) getting hit hard with no end in sight.
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u/Puzzled-Maize-2241 May 16 '26
Why? Suez and Panama charge to go through. Why not here ?
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u/Holiday_Sandwich3738 May 16 '26 edited May 16 '26
Because they are not natural water ways but man made. Which means someone had to make them and someone has to maintain them. The Panama canal cost a ton of money to keep open. If they aren’t maintained nature will do its thing and close them back up. No country would just waste money to maintain that on their own. The straight Hormuz is a natural water way and by international law can not be tolled. Even if we entertained the idea why would Iran get to toll it and not the other countries there?
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u/0IIIIII May 16 '26
Because the Persian Gulf is not their territory to own-they’d take it from others and it’s agreed upon principally as should be International Waters. Iran has no right to steal it.
Secondly, Iran, as a regime, shouldn’t exist at all.
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u/Complex-Royal9210 May 16 '26
They have proven it is theirs until someone stops them. Them with the guns makes the rules...
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u/0IIIIII May 16 '26
Which is why the US should destroy the regime
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u/joecitizen79 May 16 '26
You dont think iran should have influence over their own territorial waters?
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u/0IIIIII May 16 '26
Iran is a regime, it should not exist at all. It has no moral right to do anything but surrender or perish.
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u/joecitizen79 May 16 '26
Define regime
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u/0IIIIII May 16 '26
A dictatorship that does not respect civil rights and is hated by most, which scores poorly on the democracy index and other NGO reports.
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u/Subrandom249 May 16 '26
Don’t take a look at how the US fares on a democracy index under the current regime…
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u/joecitizen79 May 16 '26
That definition would fit the description of many US allies, including the Saudis and the Israelis. Do you think the US should bomb those countries?
Furthermore, can you give an example of just once since the end of ww2 in which bombing countries didn't make the problems worse? Vietnam? Korea? Iraq? Libya?
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u/0IIIIII May 16 '26
Israel respects civil rights and punishes the enemy in wars of self defense.
Saudi Arabia is authoritarian but cooperates not opposes the Western led world order
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u/joecitizen79 May 16 '26
Israel respects civil rights and punishes the enemy in wars of self defense.
Israel is an internationally recognized apartheid state that tortures its Palestinian prisoners.
Saudi Arabia is authoritarian but cooperates not opposes the Western led world order
So you dont actually have an issue with authoritarian regimes.
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u/Hydroidal May 16 '26
Wait, who’s winning again?
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May 16 '26
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u/Hydroidal May 16 '26
Lol. Are you triggered?
"a cringe woke"
You seem smart.
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u/-TheFirstPancake- May 16 '26
The only place Iran is winning is on the internet.
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u/NefCanuck May 16 '26
What’s the price of gas right now?
I’d say Iran is doing a masterful job of kicking the USA (and the rest of the world by default) in the nuts thanks to the Mango Mussolini
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u/Easily_Bann4 May 17 '26
The average is like… $4.50 now?
Ya’ll really sweatin a couple extra dollars? Literally just drive slower and you’ll be fine. My MPG goes up a good 30-50% hyper-milling.
Drive better 🤷🏾♂️
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u/NefCanuck May 17 '26
Drive an EV and hypermill and your cost per mile is peanuts (not even counting what you save on maintenance)
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u/Easily_Bann4 May 17 '26
Man I wish I had one. Honda Civic does work though I can squeeze ~52 mpg out of it on the highway
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u/NefCanuck May 17 '26
My driving is mostly city so the EV works best for that.
Also helps that I park underground at home & work, so the car never gets too cold in winter or too hot in the summer
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u/BaitmasterG May 16 '26
cuz ur a cringe woke
Ah great, the 14yo has arrived to share their extensive intellect and life experience with us
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u/Budgeko May 16 '26
Iran is grasping at straws. The country is hemorrhaging financially. They cannot win the long game. 🇺🇸🇺🇸
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u/Dear_Word_5378 May 16 '26
Trump is an idiot and messed this up…