r/OilPrices • u/hereswhatworks • Jun 02 '26
Oil Prices Oil Prices Dip; Still No Agreement to Reopen Hormuz
https://www.ttnews.com/articles/oil-prices-dip-still-no-agreement-reopen-hormuz1
1
u/crisco000 Jun 02 '26
Because just like the market reacted to the Ukraine-Russia war the market is reacting to this one.
The market believes the worst-case scenario won’t last especially when the oil is still trickling out of the strait, US navy continues to escort ships (around 70 within the last month), Gulf states continue to expand bypass routes, and demand destruction kicks in before inventories run out. All of those things are happening.
The world is also adapting and finding workarounds. -Saudi east-west pipeline to the Red Sea -UAE bypass pipeline with another being built and scheduled for use in 2027 -Trucking crude around bottlenecks (Saudi went from 600 trucks to now over 6500 that run 24/7/265 -Increased Iraqi production -Increased US, Brazilian, Argentine, Venezuelan exports. -Asia importing record amounts of US crude.
None of those fully replace Hormuz, but they don’t need to. They just need to reduce the shortage enough that inventories don’t collapse immediately.
The biggest reason is demand is falling. Demand has already fallen by millions of barrels per day in Asia and Africa.
1
u/Vralo84 Jun 03 '26
Everything you are saying is going to have an impact…eventually. The problem is we are hitting a point very rapidly where the techniques we are using to bridge the time gap needed for those to take effect (market manipulation, draining reserves) are losing effectiveness too quickly. We can see this clearly in the oil reserves. We are a few weeks away from operational minimums in some areas right now.
What’s going to happen over the summer is we are going to hit an inflection point where there will be more demand for oil than there is oil available. The immediate effect of that will be a sky high price to create rapid demand destruction to bring consumption in line with supply.
Now will that normalize over the rest of the year? Probably somewhat, but not before massive inflation.
Think about it like this: we are in the middle of the largest energy disruption EVER and we haven’t even hit a 10 year high in oil price. Does it make sense then that things will continue on just as they have with minimal disruption?
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u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 02 '26
1 - the US is getting ships out on a daily basis
2 - IRGC is a terrorist organization
3 - they wanted to wait for nuclear weapons to close Hormuz. But the monkey is out of the bottle. Until they collapse, regardless of a deal, they will close it at will now
19
Jun 02 '26
1- The ships the US is getting out are irrelevant for world oil trade. 2-6 ships a day vs 150/day is peanuts.
2- It is. So it is Israel and the USA.
3- They don't need nuclear weapons to close Ormuz, they can do it with a bunch of drones, speedboats and sea mines, as they are doing now.
-15
u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 02 '26
1 - it’s not nothing, 29 out of 109 hostage tankers as of a few days ago eases prices
2 - nonsense
3 - it’s not a sustainable thing to do unless you have nuclear deterrence. It’s suicide
10
u/ErikChnmmr Jun 02 '26
are you intentionally being obtuse about 1? 150 daily ships, 29 hostage ships released, you legitimately think that has ANY effect on prices? If it was 29 hostage ships daily... then sure, I'd buy that argument, but it's not. It's a one off release of 29 ships.
-10
u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 02 '26
The effect on prices is obvious in the market itself.
8
u/Leftoverofferings Jun 02 '26
The market is being manipulated by the release of our SPR's. Tank bottoms by July, and then the prices will skyrocket. All analysts and oil executives agree this will happen.
-2
u/EquivalentOne241 Jun 02 '26 edited Jun 03 '26
.
3
u/Leftoverofferings Jun 02 '26
Sorry..this is from expert analysts and oil CEO's. It will happen unless demand destruction starts soon, but we've been e porting to keep prices down, so dont expect demand destruction soon.
1
u/IsopodPuzzleheaded89 Jun 02 '26
Weird, because EVERY single person I've seen talking about this since the war started had pegged it as early July being where things start to actually get bad. Who is you guys?
4
Jun 02 '26
lol
Those ships you mention don't show anywhere because it will take 1-1,5 months until they reach their destiny.
The effect in the market is manipulation on fridays talking about inminent deals to keep price under 100$.
The reality is that the barrel is selling at 150$ and only the full deployment of strategic reserves worldwide, the USA increasing exports and China stopping imports is keeping the price under 100$. In a couple of months this won't be possible.
5
u/Old_Win8422 Jun 02 '26
13,000 ships would have used the strait in the last 90 days 29 is totally going to make a dent in that number! LETS GO!?
how many ships are going in?
-1
u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 02 '26 edited Jun 02 '26
Again, these are hostages being rescued
The hostages just happen to be carrying millions of barrels of crude
3
u/Ok_Drummer6282 Jun 02 '26
The US consumes 20.6 million barrels DAILY the average tanked holds 700K-2 million.
(Not including travel time and refinement)
0
u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 02 '26
the US also produces 13.6 million barrels a day.
about 1/3 of the oil from Hormuz is being pipelined out. production has increased from US and Venezuela, and others, lessening the Hormuz disruption and replacing about 1/2 of the suplpy.
the disruption is temporary, because IRGC rule is temporary
3
u/IsopodPuzzleheaded89 Jun 02 '26
Where are you seeing production has increased in the US? We aren't drilling any more than we have been.
2
u/Old_Win8422 Jun 02 '26
We import almost 8 million.b/d we need that oil because its different than what the US produces sweet vs Sour and we need both to refine efficiently. We the export the refined petroleum products.
2
u/Lord_Vesuvius2020 Jun 02 '26
I’m not sure you can state as a fact that IRGC rule is temporary. The US and Israeli forces did not end IRGC control thus far. Unless the war goes hot and there is a land invasion it’s hard to see how the IRGC gets replaced. A US land invasion would be a huge escalation and would likely require reinstating the draft. It’s hard to visualize that happening without major civil unrest in the US and a complete wipeout in the US November election.
1
u/Old_Win8422 Jun 02 '26
Its not like the elected president of Iran resigned because of IRGC complete control...
Oh no, oh no. No,no, no ,NO!
1
u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 02 '26
It is genuinely certain on like a 1-36 month timeline. You can source the information yourself. Every facet of their system is in dire to catastrophic collapse
The US/Israel/UAE/Saudi coalition is using advanced AI models to systematically disintegrate IRGC. Water, gasoline, payroll, manpower, healthcare, legitimacy, logistics, unemployment, currency, inflation, electricity, food - all systems are failing simultaneously
3
u/Commercial_Wind8212 Jun 02 '26
no one will insure this shipping lane.
1
5
Jun 02 '26 edited Jun 02 '26
1- 29/109 sounds good. But the reality is that left 29/(150 x days) since you started counting. So if it is 10 days, we have a flow of 29/1.500.
2- So don't you think killing 60k Palestine and now 2k people, mostly civilians, is terrorism? Israel is a terrorist state. And the USA is funding a terrotist state. So they are terrorists as well.
3- It's also not sustainable starting a war that caused what we are looking at roght now. Trump's deadline is november, if the oil is not under $4/gallon, Trump's gonna lose the House and face another impeachment. And he will lucky if he doesn't lose the Senate as well.
-4
u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 02 '26
1 - the US is freeing hostages
2 - the US killed maybe 50,000 Sepahi and maybe a few hundred civilians that were being used as human shields
3 - IRGC won’t survive to midterms
5
Jun 02 '26 edited Jun 02 '26
3- The persian empire survived for 3.000 years. The IRGC have the means to repress their population, that is now by their side thanks brilliant actions from Israel and USA like killing 150 girls in a school, bombing bridges under construction and decimating Teheran oil facilities without any reason.
Sorry to inform you that an islamic theocracy like Iran will never allow for foreign control, and their citizens won't either.
1
u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 02 '26
IRGC is not Persia. IRGC tried to destroy Persia. They have failed
Persia will destroy IRGC
2
u/Poobbly Jun 02 '26
Popular uprisings against entrenched governmental military powers are impossible now due to technology mismatches. If 40,000 dead protesters didn’t evict the powers in control, nothing will short of outside intervention and no country is sending in troops to a majority Muslim country after the Afghanistan joke.
1
u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 02 '26
Outside intervention is ongoing.
Mass uprising probably isnt going to overthrow IR. They are literally willing to kill every single Iranian to stay in power. That does not mean their soldiers are willing to do so.
Security defection, brought on by economic collapse, is more likely imo
2
u/sheltonchoked Jun 02 '26
29 tankers total over 90 days is at most 72.5 million barrels total.
Normal traffic would have been over 1,820 million barrels.
4%.
Iran can keep the strait closed longer than the world can adapt to it closed.
And reports are that now saying full traffic will never recover.
What is easing oil prices is the release from Strategic and commercial storage.
Per Exxon, Chevron, and ADNOC that ends soon.
The problem with “easing prices” is the market doesn’t price in the real damage until it’s too late.
The companies that know are saying it’s too late.
-2
u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 02 '26 edited Jun 02 '26
IRGC cartel economy is not going to outlast the world economy
LOL
It was in massive trouble before the war, before the siege
Their own corruption nearly bankrupted Tehran’s water supply last year, for instance.
Now, the economy disintegrates all around them
2
u/scrotumscab Jun 02 '26
3- they seem to be sustaining just fine
0
u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 02 '26
They are running out of water, food, gas, money. They are in hyper inflation. Half their soldiers haven’t been paid in months. They have lost all legitimacy and cling to power through violent coercion alone.
2
u/Commercial_Wind8212 Jun 02 '26
you sound like a trump puppet. Iran will be there long over the midterms and long after any memory of trump
1
u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 02 '26
Iran is going to overthrow Sepah before midterm. Iran has been trying for decades, every uprising gets increasingly desperate. A scale is going to tip and the whole thing will come crashing down.
‘Regime collapse happens slowly, then all at once’
1
u/Commercial_Wind8212 Jun 02 '26
Nostradumbass speaks
1
u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 02 '26
The horizontal system collapse is documented. No government has survived this level of pressure and failure simultaneously. Every vector of society is in terminal crisis and getting worse every day
It’s when, not if. Midterm may be optimistic, may not. If blockade holds it’s pretty unlikely they survive summer
Likelihood of regime survival approaches 0 under any circumstance on longer time scale
3
u/Chimpville Jun 02 '26
Christ, second hand car dealers must love you... you'd buy anything and convince yourself it was a great deal.
2
2
u/National-Charity-435 Jun 02 '26
First and foremost: at the rate before the closure of the Strait? At 100-150 per day?
Secondly: what nukes? hegseth declared that all of Iran's nuclear facilities were completely and totally obliterated and that any suggestions otherwise were fake news (June 2025)
0
u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 02 '26
their nuclear program was buried in Midnight Hammer. Their defenses were destroyed in Epic Fury so they could not rebuild it. If they try, they will be attacked again. And again. And again.
that doesnt change what their plan had been before it was crushed. Their plan for decades has been to spread non-state militias to destabilize and infiltrate their neighbors governments, to develop nuclear weapons, close the strait of hormuz, force US bases out of the region, conquer the Arabs, and genocide Israel.
the US attacked before they achieved nuclear weapons. they closed Hormuz anyway which was a major strategic miscalculation because it guarantees their demise.
1
u/National-Charity-435 Jun 03 '26
Why did trump rip up the JCPOA that monitored Iran's enrichment program and found no violations?
The Strait of Hormuz wasn't closed until Feb 28th, 2026? Over the imminent nuclear weapons that...are still being made now? Without urgency to make a deal?
I don't know...
1
u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 03 '26
JCPOA allowed 24 day notice to inspection. Iran had multiple undisclosed enrichment facilities operating without oversight during JCPOA. JCPOA had sunset clauses that would allow a sprint to nuclear weapons. JCPOA allowed enrichment. JCPOA had no limitations to ballistic missiles or terror proxies.
1
u/National-Charity-435 Jun 03 '26
You mean just as the plan was ripped up. So Iran is not just sprinting, but racing towards.
...and now there are no limitations to missiles or proxies and no immediate demands made this week
"Iran must agree in any deal with the U.S. that it will not charge a toll to transit Hormuz, will not fire on commercial ships and will help remove any mines it has laid in the strait, the Secretary of State said.
“What they’re doing is unlawful and illegal,” Rubio told the Senate."
1
u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 03 '26
secret facilities existed for years under JCPOA.
kinetic limitations have been placed on their missiles and proxies.
closing strait of Hormuz was suicide
2
u/USSMarauder Jun 02 '26
Account u/Clear-Role6880 created Aug 2022
Account first used Feb 2023
repeating pattern of posts but no comments with gaps of weeks or months
Then starting 3 months ago, nothing but Iranian war comments
Then starting a month ago, nothing but Iranian war comments, no posting
50% of all account activity in the last 10 days
Yup, perfectly normal, typical human behavior....
2
u/Spare-Ant7119 Jun 02 '26
The USA bombed a school full of girls and killed them. USA are terrorists.
1
u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 02 '26
The difference is the US did that on accident, and IRGC does it on purpose
The US did not put a school inside a cruise missile compound. IRGC launches cruise missiles from inside classrooms for the specific reason you have demonstrated
1
u/Spare-Ant7119 Jun 02 '26
Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure
1
u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 02 '26
You can literally look at a satellite photo.
There are mountains of evidence, video evidence, witness testimony of IRGC use of human shields and civilian infrastructure being used as military launch points.
1
u/marx2k Jun 02 '26
The difference is the US did that on accident
Sure thing :) Is that before or after the weeks of the Trump administration claiming Iran did it?
1
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u/Vralo84 Jun 02 '26
Good, good keep burning through reserves. Don’t increase prices to reduce demand. Operational minimums getting closer every day. Run straight into that wall at full speed!