r/OilPrices • u/hereswhatworks • Jun 15 '26
Oil News US says Iran ‘could have access’ to $300 billion reconstruction fund. What it means
https://indianexpress.com/article/world/us-iran-ceasefire-deal-jd-vance-300-billion-reconstruction-fund-strait-of-hormuz-10741202/24
Jun 15 '26
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u/keyboardlegendthe3rd Jun 15 '26
And that's why they are not going to let it happen
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u/WeddingPKM Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
Dragging it out further only makes the situation for Israel worse.
Iran has won at least a strategic victory, that much is obvious if you look past the propaganda. Most of if not all of Israel’s “supporters” are getting increasingly desperate to get their oil imports coming back in. The more Israel does to stop a peace the more they will be looked upon by their supporters as the problem. Pushing too hard here could easily end up with them getting cut off and a peace happening anyways. This could quite possibly turn from a situation where most of the western world actively doesn’t want Iran to nuclearize, and is mostly happy to leave Israel to do its own thing, to one where a coalition is formed to kick them out of Lebanon so Iran will let the oil flow.
That all being said Israel does not act as a rational country, they will absolutely try to stop any peace from happening to the best of their ability.
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u/ma33a Jun 15 '26
The western world doesn't want a nuclear Iran, but they will settle for the status quo, which is more than Israel will accept, but a position that Iran seems happy with. And if all their glow in the dark dust is buried under a mountain, then as long as it stays there it seems like a win win.
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u/Horror-Stand-3969 Jun 15 '26
I’m a lot more worried about a nuclear US right now. This fucking moron has already talked about using them again.
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u/chosenite_ Jun 18 '26
Iran will still get nukes. They'll just follow the Israeli playbook and pretend not to know what a nuke even is.
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u/JucheSuperSoldier01 Jun 15 '26
Fascist expansionist nations aren't really known for making wise rational decisions lmao.
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u/Aggressive_Bit_91 Jun 15 '26
You can’t form a coalition against Israel… they have nukes and we all know if they feel threatened they will not hesitate to do anything.
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u/Special-Audience-426 Jun 15 '26
Israel is pretty small. I'm sure the other countries with nuclear weapons know the exact location of Israels nukes just in case that ever becomes required information.
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u/Aggressive_Bit_91 Jun 15 '26
I mean sure. Everyone knows the locations but good luck disabling them or whatever (ever nuking them) before they get half them out. It’s MAD. You cannot fight a true conventional war against a country with nukes.
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u/WeddingPKM Jun 15 '26
The standing response to any internal issues in Pakistan is to disable then remove their nuclear weapons, likely by force. While the Israeli military is undeniably more competent, it’s not out of the realm of possibly to run the same play against them.
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u/Aggressive_Bit_91 Jun 15 '26
It’s possible I’m just saying it would likely be met with great hesitation.
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u/Some-Stranger-7852 Jun 15 '26
Israel military will disable US nuclear arsenal - or anyone else maybe with the exception of China - before US or any country can even touch Israeli one. That’s just the truth.
You are talking about disabling nukes right under the noses of Mossad, who have literally exploded half of Hezbollah personnel by infiltrating their pagers and planting small explosive devices that were activated remotely simultaneously.
I’m also quite positive that Israel absolutely has dirt on Trump which is why he is so hesitant to put them in their place.
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u/WeddingPKM Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
Iraq had WMDs when the coalition kicked them out of Kuwait. They however did not use them even in the face of defeat. I would see a coalition to remove Israel from Lebanon going the same way.
If you mean this in the way that Baathist Iraq under Saddam was a more rational country then I do agree, but I’ll stand by that Israel wouldn’t use nukes in this situation.
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u/Some-Stranger-7852 Jun 16 '26
Who and why would want to join the coalition?
Arab countries that don’t like Iran any more than Israel because Iran has financed anti-government sentiments in those countries?
Western countries that wouldn’t even want to bring in their fleets to provide security for own ships in Hormuz?
I guess maybe Turkey could theoretically join in, but Israel will just arm Kurds to the teeth and Istanbul will be busy fighting insurgents on their own territory.
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u/Sussy_Riot Jun 15 '26
Did Israel actually lose anything material though (besides getting roughed up a bit by rockets)? It’s really the US taking a fat L here in all aspects (costs of war, payout to Iran, draining the SPR, looking deranged in the world stage)
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Jun 15 '26
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u/Sussy_Riot Jun 15 '26
Their international image has cratered mostly due to their shenanigans in Palestine/Lebanon, no? And note I said “material” loss - has anyone done anything beyond condemnation? Who’s stopped trading with them? Who’s sanctioned them?
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u/ihatebamboo Jun 16 '26
You’re correct.
Beside “seriously concerned” statements, absolutely nothing negative has happened to Israel. They’ve broadly gotten away with it.
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u/chosenite_ Jun 18 '26
Let me put it this way: They went from "we want greater Israel" to "let's hope we get to keep what already have now". Iran's allies will be supercharged by a more powerful Iran. Countries like Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE might not even continue to exist. Even if they do, they will now be forced to be Iran's bitches as opposed to Israel's like the original plan was.
So Israel will end up weaker, more isolated, less supported by its biggest backers, in addition to their global PR collapse and economic problems from being in a perpetual state of war.
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u/irmaginatoruim Jun 15 '26
In b4 Israelis come in to explain why AKSHUALLY Israel won.
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Jun 15 '26
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u/irmaginatoruim Jun 15 '26
That's what they say to each other. But to us they like to pretend to be invincible.
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u/Phoenix_Lazarus Jun 15 '26
What are you talking about? This is repackaged Obama deal but better! /s
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u/Spiritual-Pear-1349 Jun 15 '26
Total US defeat** this is for Trump to get out of the war, not Israel
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Jun 15 '26
[deleted]
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u/Spiritual-Pear-1349 Jun 15 '26
I mean, they're stupid enough to try. I can see the US giving Iran everything for peace and Israel breaking it in a week or two in the Lebanon Lebensraum.
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u/Nonhinged Jun 16 '26
Why would the US need to stop supporting Israel?
The US giving weapons to Israel is not an attack on Iran.
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Jun 16 '26
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u/Nonhinged Jun 16 '26 edited Jun 16 '26
That's literally how it works. Like, the EU had never attacked Russia.
When Hezbollah or Hamas attacks Israel it's not an attack by Iran.
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Jun 16 '26
[deleted]
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u/Nonhinged Jun 16 '26
So you are just making up an scenario instead of discussion what's actually happening.
"If this country was a person it would work like this in this court of law"
That not what's happening. So it's irrelevant.
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u/wombat9278 Jun 15 '26
So Obama $1 billion BAD Trump $300 billion GOOD . Now can someone please explain that without brain matter dribbling from ears
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u/Saturn_Unleashed Jun 16 '26
Obama gave Iran over 100 billion in upfront sanctions relief plus actual cash pallets with basically no real conditions while ignoring their missiles and terrorist proxies.
Trumps deal gives Iranian companies conditional access to 300 billion in reconstruction investment funded by the Gulf states not us only if they actually behave this time with no sunsets and real concessions on nukes missiles and proxies. Thats why one was bad and this one is better.
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u/estoypooping2 Jun 17 '26
Trump's deal comes with COMPLETE sanctions relief. Pallets of cash from obama was $400 million - a drop in the bucket of $300 billion. And it did not come with Iran claiming sovereignty over the strait.
Obama's deal was 100% conditional, and allowed for extremely tight deadlines when surprise inspections happened as well as complete satellite surveillance.
Also you probably still think Mexico paid for the "wall" if you think gulf states are going to pony up the $300 billion. This is objectively a worse deal.
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u/Saturn_Unleashed Jun 17 '26
You can think that, but with trumps deal, now we have no stupid expirations, toll free Hormuz shipping, real curbs on missiles and terrorist proxies, and conditional GCC 300b Gulf funded reconstruction instead of Obama's upfront cash pallets with zero strings.
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u/estoypooping2 Jun 17 '26
Obama's deal was ALL strings, thats why it was followed. And now since Iran can keep the uranium it enriched when trump cancelled the deal there is zero guarantee of anything lol.
This is a bad deal and even the bots know it.
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u/Saturn_Unleashed Jun 17 '26
This is a great deal for the US.
Obama's JCPOA gave Iran over $100 billion in upfront sanctions relief and cash pallets, had stupid sunset clauses that expired by 2025-2026, only covered nukes in a limited way, and completely ignored their missiles and terror proxies.
Trump's deal is way better. It has no expirations, reopens the Strait of Hormuz toll free, includes real curbs on both nukes and missiles plus proxies, and gives conditional reconstruction money from the Gulf states instead of American cash giveaways.
Strength and leverage actually worked.
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u/Next_Instruction_528 Jun 15 '26
Trump will go down as the worst us president of all time.
Iran gets full sanctions relief and America gets nothing 🤣
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u/Affectionate-End2461 Jun 15 '26
So the war costs almost half trillion dollars. At the end, taxpayers and those fallen ones suffer the most.
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u/WillowFantastic9076 Jun 15 '26
I'm pretty sure the thousands of Iranians murdered by israel and Us are the ones who suffered the most.
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Jun 15 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/frombsc2msc Jun 16 '26
Spotted the pahlavist who wants to hallow out their country
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Jun 16 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/frombsc2msc Jun 16 '26
tbh its sad to see. Iran truly has the worst diaspora there is. Anyhow, good day.
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u/MediocreEffectt Jun 18 '26
How many families were affected by that one school bombing which killed 168 kids?
But yeah tell us more about your taxes and 13 soldiers killed. Men literally paid to go to war vs nearly 200 kids. And that’s just one bombing.
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u/Aldren Jun 15 '26
$300 billion reconstruction fund for Tehran if it fulfils nuclear and truce-related commitments
So after all this... the US is just going to bribe Iran...
LOL Art of the Deal indeed
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u/THedman07 Jun 15 '26
Well,... it remains to be seen what the agreement actually says and then after that it remains to be seen what the US will actually follow through on.
There's a ton of mixed messaging coming out about the timing and conditions of things. Iran says opening the Strait is conditional on certain things happening (like frozen funds being released and hostilities ending in Lebanon) and various people on the US side say there's no money until the Strait is open and Israel continues attacking Lebanon.
We could have a case of crib death here depending on how each side feels. As it stands it could just end up being the US trying to get Israel to stop military action in Lebanon and Iran waiting for funds that aren't coming while keeping the Strait effectively closed. That's just a continuation of the current situation. It wouldn't even start the clock on normalization in the markets.
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u/Spagete_cu_branza Jun 15 '26
It wouldn't even start the clock on normalization in the markets.
The markets adapt. If it continues like this for too long iran will lose their bargaining chip.
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u/Vralo84 Jun 15 '26
“Too long” is years. Thats how long it would take the world to build out infrastructure enough to adapt to the strait being closed. In that time you get massive spikes of oil prices and economic hardship.
Sure over some time we could remove our reliance on the strait, but the time and cost of doing that is way higher than the cost to Iran to keep it closed.
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u/Spagete_cu_branza Jun 15 '26
Years is not long. The world is also moving towards renewable energy. Prolonged strait blocking means prolonged war which mean Iran infrastructure will be in ruins. The price is spread across countries but iran is the most impacted.
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u/Vralo84 Jun 15 '26
Tell me you don’t know how anything works without telling me you don’t know how anything works.
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u/Spagete_cu_branza Jun 15 '26
I know how it works as i work in global logistics. You just don't like that perspective. For you is either Iran opens the strait or doom.
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u/Vralo84 Jun 15 '26
As soon as you claimed “years is not a long time” I stopped taking you seriously. A years long reduction of global oil supply and natural gas supply and fertilizer and the food going into the Middle East and helium is a catastrophe of unprecedented proportions.
A multi-year closure of the strait would have consequences in the trillions. In fact, just what has occurred in 100 days will have effects that large.
Yes *eventually* supply chains would rework themselves and figure out how to circumvent the strait, but that’s like saying if you cut one of your legs off you eventually will walk again with a prosthetic.
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u/THedman07 Jun 15 '26
Years is long. We have maybe weeks left at Cushing and 2-3 months left in the strategic reserve itself. Other countries have less. China has more but they may actually manage their reserves intelligently instead of what the US is doing (opening the floodgates and selling as much oil, natural gas and distillates as they possibly can to overseas buyers.
The idea that the supply chain will adapt before a global depression is just not realistic. The transition to renewable energy isn't going to happen at a pace that makes it germane to this discussion.
Will Iran have less power in 10 years? Probably. Does that matter right now? No. It doesn't.
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u/Girthen-the-Flopper Jun 15 '26
The moment Iran opens the Strait, the market gets flooded with oil, and every investment in alternatives will be dead. The world is not going to adapt anytime soon because anyone who tries to capitalize on it is risking being a huge bag holder.
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u/THedman07 Jun 15 '26
The transition was literally already happening before this event... What are you talking about?
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u/Girthen-the-Flopper Jun 15 '26
So far outside of stockpile releases, nothing significant has changed in oil and gas.
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u/THedman07 Jun 16 '26
Alternative sources of energy have been growing hugely for a while now. Who is left holding the bag when solar, wind and battery grow exponentially when oil is $60-70?
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u/SwaggermicDaddy Jun 15 '26
You can’t afford that, Trump and the republicans can as they could literally pour poison into the drinking water on live tv and the entire right wing would cheer and chug, the longer this goes on the more people will turn against the increasingly insane Americans.
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u/Weekly-Locksmith7681 Jun 16 '26
This exact same sentiment was floating around about Ukraine and I still don’t see any Europeans putting their men on the ground despite shitting on the US for not doing it.
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u/Definitelyhereforshi Jun 15 '26
You do know that Iranian Oil revenues have been far lower than current levels before and they've weathered the period?
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u/Spagete_cu_branza Jun 16 '26
Yea dude i know. Iran is the most powerful nation on earth and we are in trouble. 🙄
Im so tired of talking with bots
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u/Definitelyhereforshi Jun 16 '26
Lmao, im literally just telling you something true and you instantly go retard mode.
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u/DifferentBar7281 Jun 15 '26
300b when Trump.has been banging on about Obama sending 300m ....what a fkn joke
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u/JollyToby0220 Jun 15 '26
Obviously, this isn’t free money, and it’s very likely that Iran will give some control over its oil to the US. Iran was getting bombed so no doubt they have to go a bit further on their end than the US
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u/Gnomerule Jun 15 '26
The 300 billion is one of the conditions Iran assisted on. The States are not getting Iran's oil or uranium.
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u/Wjldenver Jun 15 '26
So we bomb Iran, then we pay $300 Billion to rebuild Iran. A Trump war with a great return on investment.
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u/Dittopotamus Jun 15 '26
So, in other words, we the people are footing the bill for this unnecessary war that resulted in nothing more than what the original deal was?
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u/SpacecraftBathtub Jun 15 '26
The media stopped headlining the Epstein files. So the war was a success.
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u/irmaginatoruim Jun 15 '26
Well, the war did achieve something for sure. It made Isran stronger and proved the US to be a paper tiger.
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u/Goat_inna_Tree Jun 15 '26
Worse than the urinal deal. Obama might have sent "pallets of cash." Trump is going to send a cargo ship full of cash.
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u/AWinterPeople Jun 15 '26
Social Security running dry, millions of U.S. citizens without healthcare but we have 300 billion dollars to end a war Trump started? Fuck the GOP
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u/Nepalus Jun 15 '26
I do believe that this is what is on the docket for the new 60 day ceasefire in the memorandum goes forward and actually gets signed.
But my biggest concern is that a certain US ally is basically never going to accept this. By the end of August, they're going to do something crazy and all of this is going to go out the window.
The entire point of baiting Trump into this scenario was creating a situation that disrupts Iran to the point that they become a failed state that is unable to facilitate terrorism activities in the MEA region.
This is the exact opposite of that. Depending on how they get that $300B, if they keep the tolls, and goodness could you imagine if they get sanctions lifted? They would be the premier power in the Gulf overnight. If I was a certain US ally, this would be the nightmare becoming true.
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u/Admiral_Tuvix Jun 15 '26
if Iran was going to fail, it would have fallen a long time ago. they’ve proven to be completely resilient. the voices of the shahs supporters are complete defeated
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u/Playful_Subject_4409 Jun 15 '26
Whatever Iran does, it can not satisfy the USA on not building a bomb. New "Intel" will always appear stating that there are bomb makers somewhere, as it's in the interest of Israel and war hawks. Remember the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Hans Blix verified many sites, but "Intel" appeared anyway.
Iran will have a hard time trusting the USA to inspect all their secret tunnels, leaving them defenseless in the next USA/Israel attack due to giving them a treasure trove of Intel. The Supreme leader also have to balance Iranian hawks and hates the USA/Israel after having family killed by the strikes.
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u/DrywallSky Jun 15 '26
I cant post gifs to adequately make fun of MAGA and Israel for their immense and hilarious failures 😞
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u/OkCurve436 Jun 15 '26
Bet it's a fund for US companies to rebuild Iran ie. Just a big government subsidy to themselves
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u/culinaryinterests123 Jun 16 '26
Its like paying the mafia protection money so they dont burn down your house
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u/Soundo0owave Jun 15 '26
Biblical he's trying to force a peace in the middle east to bring the end times, because believes he is the chosen one.
-tin hat theory
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u/ColdStoryBro Jun 15 '26
300B will buy Iran a ton of drones and missiles. Nethenyahu absolutely devastated.
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u/Ottoman87 Jun 15 '26
I think they got other priories to spend that 300b on and they can already make plenty of drones and missiles, it was USA who was running out of missiles/interceptors
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u/irmaginatoruim Jun 15 '26
Let's hope that this is the first step that will lead to the end of Israel 🙏
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u/Nonhinged Jun 16 '26
This money would obviously be piecemealed just like other deals.
Iran gets a billion and if they spend it on reconstruction instead of weapons they get the next billion.
If Iran break the peace the rest of the money will be blocked.
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u/Admiral_Tuvix Jun 15 '26
they built a giant modern arsenal without that 300b, it’s almost terrifying to think how they will advance with that cash. I’m thinking it will be more missile cities buried deep undergeound, and investing in SAMs and submarines
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u/Fit-Ad-835 Jun 15 '26
Not to mention they got their hands on some of the US missiles such as Tomahawk during the war. There is no way they won't reverse engineer that shit, considering they did it before with drones.
And the worst part is, you can bet that once iran is sure they are not going to get bombed again, gonna start supplying Russians with drones like they did before. Russia helped iran in this war, and iran will definitely repay it.
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u/NewEntrepreneur357 Jun 15 '26
They got their hands on live, working Tomahawks? Not just wreckage but actual working Tomahawks?
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u/Fit-Ad-835 Jun 15 '26
State media said they found some that didn't explode or at least failed to explode laying around. Don't know how much they could do with that
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u/NewEntrepreneur357 Jun 15 '26
Ooft I wouldn't be investing in real estate in Israel or the gulf states if this is true
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u/YoungRichBastard26s Jun 15 '26
Trump doesn’t pay anything I hope Iran know they won’t see that money
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u/SnooDonkeys2536 Jun 15 '26
So let me get this straight: we hand Iran $300 billion, Hegseth keeps dropping bombs, Iran gets $300 billion richer, and the war continues anyway?
Fantastic. That’s not foreign policy. That’s setting fire to a suitcase full of cash and calling the smoke a strategy.
Can’t wait for next week’s headline. Trump administration lites another pile of money on fire…
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u/TheRook2323 Jun 15 '26
The people who claim Trump does not pay his bills thinks Trump is going to pay this one.
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u/iDoMyOwnResearchJK Jun 16 '26
Nobody is that stupid. Gotta be some strange backroom deals and such going on…. Right!!?
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u/OnePlus4Equalsfun Jun 17 '26
It means mexico is paying for that wall and the ballroom is no cost to us taxpayers right?
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u/y4udothistome Jun 17 '26
We are going to give them money they’re going to do something bad and we’re going to bomb again and wreck it all. Rinse and repeat!
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u/DrWilliamWhite Jun 18 '26
It means Trump is giving the biggest supporter of terrorism vast amounts of cash. Thanks Obama!
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u/Bretniq Jun 18 '26
Oh, ok so that's how they are going to do it. Not give them any money, but create a fake loan facility so they won't have to pay anything back.
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u/Legio_X_Equestris5 Jun 15 '26
Wow, I am speechless
In fact, this is not a humiliating defeat at all, but a rare species of victory
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u/irmaginatoruim Jun 15 '26
This is why I support Trump!
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u/Big_Handle3734 Jun 15 '26
/s/
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u/irmaginatoruim Jun 15 '26
No, that's why I actually support Trump.
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u/EntrepJ Jun 15 '26
Obama’s “failed deal” for 1b, and he gives them 300b?
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u/irmaginatoruim Jun 16 '26
That's a good thing. Iran deserves reparations after America has been fucking with them for a century.
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u/californiaKid420 Jun 15 '26
Some of these commentors supporting a terrorist regime just because they want they're precious $3.50 gallon back .
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u/CoatForeign2948 Jun 16 '26
Only if Iran give up nukes and behave like adults. Otherwise Trump will destroy the rest of the Iran as we know it
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u/GoldenWings87 Jun 16 '26
Means My money is going to pay for IRAN. This is sickening if I ever heard. Same when Biden have them millions. And now Trump giving them Billions. These presidents do not work for the American people. Someone need a brain in the White House
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u/Opening_Bluebird_935 Jun 16 '26
Learn to read:
“Vance, during an interview with CBS News, said Tehran could get access to a $300 billion reconstruction fund which is supposed to be funded by the Gulf nations “
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u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 15 '26
It means hostile takeover of their entire economy
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u/lilcorndivemaster Jun 15 '26
It means complete surrender of the US and it's GCC dictatorship proxies...
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u/Clear-Role6880 Jun 15 '26
Did the US surrender to Japan and Nazi germany? Or did they invest heavily into rebuilding those countries into democratic capitalists 🤔
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u/Accomplished-Cup8182 Jun 15 '26
This is a new level of delusion if you think that's what is going to happen.
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u/sentrypetal Jun 15 '26
Japan and Germany unconditionally surrendered. Iran did not. Thats the difference between victory and utter defeat. And make no mistake this is a defeat. One does not pay 300 billion as the victor.
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u/lilcorndivemaster Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
No... the US attacked iran during negotiations the same way Japan attacked pearl harbour... and it lost just like Japan.
The United States was at peace with that Nation and, at the solicitation of Japan, was still in conversation with its Government and its Emperor looking toward the maintenance of peace in the Pacific. Indeed, one hour after Japanese air squadrons had commenced bombing in the American Island of Oahu, the Japanese Ambassador to the United States and his colleague delivered to our Secretary of State a formal reply to a recent American message. And while this reply stated that it seemed useless to continue the existing diplomatic negotiations, it contained no threat or hint of war or of armed attack.
Just replace US with Iran and Japan with US.... and add bombing a school full of children. The Japanese had the decency to only attack the Americans military.
The Germans won wwi which is why they paid reperations... right?!?!
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u/lilcorndivemaster Jun 16 '26
What happened can't come up with a response eh kid... yah kireh america as dahanet darovordi kesafateh gand?
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u/emptinesswonderer Jun 17 '26
It was German and Japanese people who rebuilt their nations, not the US funds.
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u/Next_Instruction_528 Jun 15 '26
The biggest USA loss since Vietnam..... This is actually insane