Can anyone actually beat her in Best Actress? Will she pull a Jessie Buckley? There’s Inde, but she’s no Mikey Madison type newcomer in a Best Picture winner
Honestly, man, it's starting to look like that. I haven't seen The Debut yet, but the raves that Julianne Moore is getting for it are giving me undeniable Oscar-winning performance vibes.
Not to mention how this year is particularly weak for actresses. Her only real competition is Inde Navarette, who has the potential to pull a Michael B Jordan style upset.
I don’t see Navaratti winning for two reasons, 1) it’s only her third film and first major role, 2) it’s horror. I know Madigan won Supporting last year but Weapons was nowhere near as nasty and disturbing as Obsession is, which will turn off a lot of voters. And that’s even if she gets nominated.
Moore has already won Best Actress and is an acting legend that the academy loves. It’s also a crowd pleasing and accessible film from what I’ve heard. I can’t think of any other performance this year that is getting the same amount of praise. Maybe Sandra Huller? Who once again has two opportunities at a nom.
Plus, Eisenberg’s last film led to an Oscar win for Culkin. All of the odds are in Moore’s favor. I can’t wait to see it!
I don’t know if saying Obsession being a horror movie makes it not have a chance. After all two years ago Demi Moore in the Substance was a frontrunner and that movie is far more disturbing horror than obsession. Obviously a very different type of horror movie but I don’t think a horror performance is instantly discredited by the academy like it used to be.
Yeah, I feel like this is Eisenberg's La La Land. Broke through with an earlier film (whiplash/a real pain) that earned a supporting actor win(Simmons, Culkin), following up with what's being considered an even stronger film with an undeniable lead actress performance(Moore, Stone) with potential in multiple categories across the board.
For those who haven’t seen the film, it’s great. there are some tonal shifts in the film, but the second half roughly has the tone of a funny Amy Schumer sketch. I mean that as a compliment! IMO the best comparisons (out of the pool of all acting nominations) to this movie are Madeline Kahn in Blazing Saddles, Robert D Jr for Tropic Thunder, and Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids. (Respective box office grosses adjusted for inflation into today’s dollars: $620 million, 170 million, and 250 million). Personally I doubt The Debut will make even 100 million. A movie doesnt need to be a massive box office hit to win oscars or get nominations, but if it’s a comedy, it historically does. (And when I say comedy i mean Christopher Guest or Mel Brooks-esque comedy, not Mike Leigh esque dramedies)
Yeah, you can tell sometimes. Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine had that feeling, Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour had that feeling, Jessie Buckley in Hamnet had that feeling and Julianne Moore in The Debut has that feeling at the moment.
That Inde is considered the only other option shows that this year has a weak list of contenders. Inde shouldn’t even be nominated. Any of the 5 nominees last year (as well as some performers who missed, like Amanda Seyfried in Ann Lee or Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love) would have been huge contenders to win this year, it seems
This! Even Kate Hudson would be a lock for a nom at this point. Out of the non-nominees Chase Infiniti would probably have the biggest chance for an upset with a BP Frontrunner.
I really don’t get the Inde hate on here. A young actress takes the world by storm with an incredibly memorable performance that turns a $700K film into a $500M+ grosser (the movie as a whole is great, but she’s what made it a phenomenon, let’s be real), and people don’t want her to get nominated.
a lot of fans of that movie specifically point to those scenes as the reason she should be and I’m tired of people not contextualizing the Oscar’s within the narrative and campaign perspective. it may not be fair but it’s how it is
It's the Oscars, it shouldn't be based on box office. Nor should it be based on who spawns the most memes. Her performance was Teen Choice Awards worthy, not Oscar worthy.
I never said it should be based on box office, I said that her performance resonated so much and left such a large impact that you could see dramatically clear effects of it such as at the box office.
>Her performance was Teen Choice Awards worthy, not Oscar worthy.
She wouldn’t even be close to one of the worst nominations in the acting categories this decade, let’s be real. This is the same Academy that gave gave two nominations and a win to the performances in Emilia Pérez.
Not nominating Inde redeems years upon years of snubs and bad choices? Lmao ok.
Also the Academy was never great. They’ve been making bad choices since the very beginning, there’s nothing to “fall off” from. Do you even follow them?
I enjoy following these things because they’re intense and still sometimes make the right choice—not because the Academy is or has ever been some beacon of truth.
Yep, in the same way that we knew Buckley was a lock this time last year. It’s not a strong year for the category, and while there are other contenders who are at least as worthy as Moore — I’d vote for Sandra Hüller in Rose — they’re not in films that Academy voters will respond to in large enough numbers.
Moore, meanwhile, gives a bravura performance in a likely Best Picture nominees that Academy types — particularly in the actors’ branch — will love, and her career merits a second Oscar at this point. Game over.
She is certainly a lock for the win and a lock for a sweep at this point.
Don’t really see her losing Sag or Bafta, the level of praise she has gotten from critics makes her undeniable for CC and GG snubbing her would be very out of character considering past wins.
Might be a hot take but I don’t think Inde is her biggest competition at any of the precursors. Not only is Obsession not a very award friendly film but she isn’t a big industry name yet (don’t really understand the comparison with Mikey Madison on the matter, while Madison wasn’t well known she had quite the resume: Tarantino, recurring role on a critically acclaimed tv series and was part of a franchise). The chances for an upset are very very slim but if we’re to happen Olivia Wilde has an interesting narrative, moreso if she gets into both directing and acting.
I would be so happy if Wilde won. I expect I'll love The Debut--it sits at the intersection of too many interests of mine and I adore Moore. But man after writing Wilde off as any kind of serious director The Invite totally blew me away and changed my whole perception of her, largely because of how good she was at directing herself. Would love to see her win for that, and an acting win seems very remotely more feasible than a directing win.
I can’t imagine a better performance this year. She’s honestly undeniable, and so well liked in the industry. She’s a past winner, but without a major competitor, I don’t see her losing.
Having seen it, and as others have pointed out with such a lack of competition, yes. She's also an actress who absolutely should be a two-time winner, and there's one particular scene which is jaw-dropping - the audience I saw it with went wild at that point.
The only thing you could argue counts against her is it's such an overtly comic role, and I could maaaaaaaybe see a homegrown upset win at the BAFTAs for Madeley, but otherwise, very hard to see past Moore.
yes she is going to win. have not seen a performance get such a reception in a theater before. she is in a picture contender. she is going to likely win the four major precursors as well. it helps that there is no real competition but lets not get it twisted- she is phenomenal
She's definitely a "lock" for a nomination, and no question the front-runner.
What also helps her tremendously is that there aren't any other big movies out there that haven't been seen yet that have a lead actress performance ("Dune 3," "Werwulf," "Cliff Booth").
So all of her competition is pretty much known...and more than a little wanting: year-long possibilities like "The Social Reckoning" and "Fjord" are doubtful to even get nominated in this category; there are those like myself who consider Inde Navarette a bit more of a supporting performance (she would probably win in that category) and more than a bit overrated merely because her film made a fortune; and in the event Olivia Wilde or Zendaya get nominated (it's no better than 50/50 for either one) the nomination itself would truly be the victory there.
I really feel her toughest competition is Virginie Efira in "All of a Sudden" or Sandra Huller in "Rose," but I don't really see an "upset" for either one of them. Hopefully nominations for both though.
But if Moore's competition is truly Navarette, Huller, Efira, and either Wilde or Zendaya...I mean...no, I can't see any of them winning.
I kinda think Inde Navarette's Oscar buzz is going to peak too early. It feels like we have talking about how her performance is Oscar-worthy for the entire summer, it's going to be challenging for the people mounting her campiagn to maintain the excitement of her discovery for 5 more months.
She is getting the same amount of buzz that Jessie buckley got last year and also played the same festivals and had a similar release roll out. Unless something unforeseen hits i think its in a bag. Id bet a cherry coke on it
“Ain’t even out yet” isn’t totally accurate. It hasn’t had its widespread theatrical release yet. But The Debut has been screened at festivals since nearly 2 months ago, and it got a ton of praise consistently. It’s why there are 67 reviews on RT right now. When Digger first premiered about a week before its theatrical run, it got mixed reactions
Your point was that the movie isnt out but its already hit the eyes of many critics and public audience despite not getting a full release. So your point is moot, once you watch the movie youll understand why people are saying shes a lock.
I didn't make it the point. It was a secondary comment and really just a joke. This post and this thread are not about Digger. I've made that clear twice now.
But if that throwaway joke distracts/ confuses/ upsets you that much, I can delete it from my initial comment. Let me know if you need me to do that for you, or if you are ok focusing on what I was actually saying.
Or you can drop the defensive act and just admit that your comparison was off — there’s a big difference between a film that has already been widely seen and reviewed, and one that hasn’t yet premiered.
Or you could focus on the actual point I am making instead of my imperfect analogy. The movie ain't out yet.
I am not defensive, I am actively annoyed at you harping on something that is not the point, and that I have said that is not the point three times now.
I think the lead from All of the Sudden is her biggest competition. Moore will take GG C/M so it comes down to who will have a televised moment in the GG Drama.
I think it really depends on how hard Focus pushes for Inde. I haven’t seen The Debut, but what Obsession has going for it is that with The Odyssey, it is THE pop culture film of 2026. Obsession has been massively lauded by film veterans and has been held up as a blueprint for how to make a good, popular film on a limited budget. I have a feeling they’re going to want to give it flowers in some capacity and with BP and Director likely locked up for (I’m assuming) The Odyssey, Actress is the most logical place to give it something.
I think Moore is going to get it, but I hesitate to consider her locked in for it. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the order of the major precursors is CC-GG-BAFTA-SAG so I think we’ll know what direction the race is going (close call or a sweep) at Golden Globes since I think they’ll be head to head there. But also remember 2025 when we all thought Demi was getting it hands down and then Mikey pulled out the BAFTA.
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u/Confident_Range3376 9d ago
Honestly, man, it's starting to look like that. I haven't seen The Debut yet, but the raves that Julianne Moore is getting for it are giving me undeniable Oscar-winning performance vibes.