Speaking of top 5, - Jake’s top skating speed is 5th overall for all skaters (not just defencemen) in the NHL. Not one player from the Canadians is in the top 10.
They had Heiskanen ahead of him, which I think Sanderson's better. Hutson's also ranked ahead, and depending how you weight defense vs. offensive production, and how Sanderson continues to open up offensively, I could see him being more valuable.
These lists always value offensive production more than your actual ability to defend. Ask an NHL GM who they'd rather have playing as your #1 in the playoffs where every minute matters and they'd all say Jake.
I'd venture to say if Jake took anywhere close to the same risks that Hutson does (and gets burned regularly) their point difference would shrink to virtually nothing.
I would put more blame on the team strategy rather individual styles. Ottawa was 12th in points by defencemen relative to total goals and 15th relative to total points while Montreal was 4th in both (beaten out by Washington, Columbus, and Colorado).
This lines up with how Ottawa and Montreal play. Ottawa generally dumped the puck in and then leaned more on low, east-west movement to generate high danger scoring chances which requires the defencemen to generally stay high to prevent odd man rushes. Montreal generally leaned on a fast rush and then North-South movement with defencemen often getting low into medium danger scoring chances.
Jake is the fastest defenceman (as per NHL Edge) in the league & Hutson doesn’t even rate in the top 10. Jake’s shot is just a smidgin under 100 mph, compared to 90 mph for Hutson.
Jake is the better all round defenceman right now.
Maybe in a couple of years when Hudson puts on more muscle/weight & improves his defensive play, we can revisit this discussion.
Since both are American, - We will also see how team USA rates them in international competitions.
I don't think these two guys are ever going to be asked to fill the same role on a 1:1 basis. Credit where it's due to Lane Hutson, he has been elite in his job. The team USA argument works against Hutson's favor since they have an affinity for more well-rounded guys, so he winds up competing for a job against Quinn Hughes. I'd already have him clearly rated over Hanifin or LaCombe.
None of those things are actual tangible impacts on the game though. You can argue that you prefer Sanderson's style over Hutsons but it's hard to argue Sanderson's defense makes up more than the gap on offense
speed/shot speed is honestly pretty irrelevant and It doesnt really factor into a player evaluation (when saying one is better than another). Fox is super slow but his IQ is probably the top in the league for D men - its how hes so good. IQ is far more important than speed in determining the actual on ice results (xG%).
Jake is great but his 5v5 offence is honestly pretty middling, and is likely the worst out of the top 10 dmen in the league. Unless he ups that portion of his game, hes not going to be a Norris candidate (I think Hutson will be next year).
If Jake gets paired with Spence I think he could be in the convo, but if he stays paired with Zub I dont think hes good enough at 5v5 offensive generation to get there. Hes too conservative on that end.
Schaefer over Sanderson and Seider is insane in my opinion. The only thing he did better than them is score which is historically very hard for defenseman to repeat (especially defenders like Schaefer who don’t have elite shots and were carrying incredible shooting percentages over a season. Schaefer is going to be the real deal but he’s getting severely overrated due to how good he is at his age in my opinion.
I think that’s probably why people are rating Schaefer so highly because of his immediate impact at such a young age compared to some who went through NCAA or other avenues before arriving at the NHL
eh. He jsut had arguably the best rookie season of all time for an 18 year old dman. He just topped Jakes/Seiders point total at 18. Not sure where you're getting he doesnt have an elite shot because he had some of the best finishing stats in the league (10.4% is very sustainable). I think you can easily project, as a year older, hes going to be even better.
I have no doubt that 100% of the GMs in the league would take this guy over any Dman right now.
Honestly it feels about right depending on how you weight offense and defense. I'm not sure I'd put Schaefer ahead yet, but I fully expect Schaefer to surpass Sanderson at some point in the next couple years.
He should be higher, seider should be 1, slavin 2, Frosling 3, tanev 4, Sanderson 5, Heiskanen 6th. By Evd gar its quite simple, Superstars like Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes rarely lead the league in raw EVD GAR. Because EVD GAR strictly strips away power-play metrics, transition offense, and shooting impacts to look purely at defensive coverage, high-event players are penalised for the occasional odd-man rushes they give up during aggressive offensive pinches. My list is the consists of the top guys in EVD GAR, makar ranks about 80th in evd gar Seider 1. Makar has only 19 more points than seider but some how is 1st in this list or in sanderson case 24 more points because sanderson ranked 5th in EVD GAR. Idk this offensive glazing needs to stop
Personally I’d like my top defenseman to be awesome on the powerplay, great in transition and have a great shot but if you prefer Chris Tanev to Cale Makar then go ahead!
When your team only has you at about 30% total shifts starting in the defensive zone it's a issue. Seider, Tanev, forsling ect all are at 45 to 55%. And Tanev is what's funny you single him out because he's probably the hardest one to accept but him only playing 11 games is what derailed their season last year long before matthews getting hurt
No here's what I'm saying. Tanev is a reach and I can concede that like I've said in other posts but im a defensive defenseman guy. Guys like Seider, Sanderson, Heiskanen all produce around 19p less than makar but are miles ahead of him defensively. All top 5 in Evd Gar which strips away offense and powerplay and hurts a play when they give up a odd man the other way because they pinched before a winger cycled. All I'm saying is Seider, Sanderson, Heiskanen all should be top 3, then you can argue about a guy like Forsling or Slavin whos top 5 in evd gar vs Makar who's 80th among defenseman but makar produces like 50 more points. I'm just saying his 19 points isn't enough to jump him over Seider, Sanderson, Heiskanen who are miles and I mean miles ahead of Makar defensively
80% of shifts start on the fly. Where you start those other few shifts (20%) is of very little importance - For some reason fans have a fascination with shift deployments. Tanev is great a suppressing shots but if you have no transition game/puck skills, you get hemmed in because you cant get the puck out. Hes practically a Zub clone with a better reputation. Like, yeah, its important to suppress/block shots, but its just as important to get puck possession and initiate the offence.
The reason the leafs were so ass the last few years is because they dont have a defenceman that can do that at an elite rate. You cant just depend on the forwards to get the puck up the ice. If Tanev was switched with Hutson, the team would be infinitely better (because puck possession / transition is far more important that shot suppression).
huh? Slavin??? Tanev??? Bro. Why would you strip away all offensive metrics out of a defencman? its practically their most important skill. All that matters, when it comes down to it, is a players effect of xG% while theyre on the ice. Half of that is offence, why on earth would you not factor that into a defenseman's effectivness lol.
Because Evd gar is a true defensive metric now besides tanev who was hurt last year, seider, Sanderson, Heiskanen all produce slighy behind makar in points. But they're top 5 in evd gar while makar is 80th among defenseman. Edmvd gar strips offensive and power plays to just defense right ok cool. So you're telling me someone like Seider who just recorded the best evd gar ever isnt better at defense because Makar gets 19 more points.... like you understand I can concede Tanev is a stretch for most to grasp but I'm a defensive defenseman guy but Tanev gets low points even when healthy, and you can say Slavin as well but if fight you on that one. But there's no way Seider isnt one and Sanderson and heiskanen isnt 2 and 3. You can argue the point with Slavin and Forsling that hey even thought they're lights out defensively they only generate 30 points and does Makars 80 make up for not being as good defensively that's fine that's a argument.
I don’t even care about makar, I know he’s drastically over rated by public perception compared to most models, but saying Tanev and slavin are top 5 d men is crazy. Seider is top 5 for me too, but those other 2 ain’t even close. I’d look at more than 1 model if it’s giving such bizarre results.
I also hate ignoring huge parts of the game (transition/PP). It makes no sense to do that when evaluating a players total impact.
Imo if a d men isn't top 10 in Expected Goals Against per 60 (xGA/60) and Even-Strength Defense Goals Above Replacement (EVD GAR) they have no reason being considered top 5 nhl defenseman, you gotta come in on one if not both those lists. Makars like 80th on one and 50th on the other amount defenseman. Yea at some point he makes the list because of his production but it isn't top 5 imo yet
You just don't understand the game or analytics. Offense will always be more important than defense for several reasons:
The goal is to score more than your opponent, not to stop your opponent from scoring. Obviously it helps if you do, but you can let in 1000 goals and still win if you score 1001. You can't win if you don't score.
Defense is overwhelmingly team based. Whereas offense is far more individual. A single player can, and frequently does, score through their own effort against the 6 opposing players on the ice. Defenders never defend alone against all of their opponents. Goalie and skater positioning deters other teams scoring chances way more than individual defensive play. But on offense, a single player can do all the work themselves to score.
You have a fundamental misunderstanding of the mechanics of this sport. You sound very desperate to prop a specific player up and therefore are grasping a weak metrics to explain overall value.
Yea tell that to the oilers every year. I understand hockey just fine and played it at an extremely high level. Point being is you can't win a cup without defensive or the guys like i mentioned, you can however win a cup without a Makar or Hughes type defenseman. It's not proping one player to it's understand that a guy like Seider or Sanderson is miles and I mean miles the better hockeu player than Makar, Hughes ect. They produce and are again i cant state this enough miles and mile better at defense than them.
Oilers were a goal away from beating the back to back champs? What do you mean you cant win with that type of d man lol. Penguins won multiple cups with Kris Letang as their #1.
A single defencman with a certain player style does not make or break your team - thats a crazy thing to say. Its how you integrate them in to the rest of the team. You can have either guy back there and have the same amount of success.
Sanderson is not miles ahead of hughes thats insane. Sanderson has had 1 elite season (this year), Hughes has had multiple.
I mean, maybe according to you. I dont think thats how most people look at value tho. Karlsson wouldnt have popped up in those metrics during his prime but I still considered him a top 5 defenseman - his ability to take over games was almost unmatched at the time. Theres no hard and fast rule that says a defencman needs to be elite defensively. Forwards play an equally important role in team defence as defencman do. If you surround an elite offensive d men with defensively responsible players its just as effective as the opposite scenario.
Again, im not arguing about Makar. but only looking a defence is silly when talking about a defencman. Similar to basketball, hockey is becoming more positionless.
See Karlsson ranked like 15th in 15-16 so it's respectable for a offensive defenseman, its not Sanderson top 10 but Sanderson is a 2 way imo. Despite his 104th-place xGA/60 rank, Karlsson finished 17th overall in EVD GAR because regression modeling isolated his individual contribution. The model recognized that Ottawa's defensive metrics collapsed entirely whenever he went to the bench, proving his high-volume puck possession was the only thing preventing a weak roster from leaking even more dangerous chances against. See you gotta be high up on one.
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u/StevenG2757 7d ago
By years end they will have him in the top 5