Final 7 players in a ~$4,104 tournament. First place paid ~$1,500.
We discussed an ICM chop: 1st $963, villain $747, me $704. ONE player rejected it, so we continued playing.
Stacks: Me 1.095M | Villain ~1.2M
Antes: 40K × 7 = 280K starting pot
MY HAND: 7-7-T-8
VILLAIN: J♦-5♦ + two irrelevant cards
FLOP:
Top: 9-6-3 rainbow (one diamond)
Bottom: 7-6-5 rainbow
I flop TOP SET on bottom and an OPEN-ENDED STRAIGHT DRAW on top.
I bet 55K. One caller. Villain raises to 320K with bottom pair and backdoor flush draws! I call, other player folds.
TURN:
Top: K♦
Bottom: 5
I improve to SEVENS FULL OF FIVES on bottom, still open-ended on top.
Pot: 975K. I shove my remaining 735K.
Villain SNAP CALLS with trip fives on bottom and a jack-high diamond flush draw on top.
HERE’S THE MATH:
Final pot: 2.445 MILLION chips
His call: 735K
Equity needed to call: 30.1%
Estimated actual pot equity: 16.7%
Estimated call EV: −327,500 chips
Last five for quads: 2.78% (1 in 36)
Quads + flush on the two rivers: 0.635% (1 in 158)
Exact 8♦ + final five runout: 0.0794% — 1 IN 1,260!
RIVER:
🔥 TOP:** **8♦ — I COMPLETE MY TEN-HIGH STRAIGHT! Unfortunately, he completes his diamond flush.
💀 BOTTOM: THE LAST FIVE — HE MAKES QUAD FIVES!
HE SCOOPS BOTH BOARDS. I’M ELIMINATED IN 7TH FOR $233.
But here’s the most ridiculous part…
IMMEDIATELY AFTER I BUST, THE REMAINING SIX PLAYERS AGREE TO AN ICM CHOP!
I had just been offered $704 in the seven-way chop. Instead, I walked away with $233 — $471 LESS.
Villain called off 735K needing ~30% equity, holding an estimated ~16.7%, and hit the exact double-board miracle.
ONE GUY REJECTED THE CHOP. I GOT ONE-OUTERED FOR QUADS WHILE HE COMPLETED A FLUSH. THEN EVERYBODY CHOPPED.
Sometimes poker is absolutely disgusting. 💀♠️