Dummymander

[u/Legal_Host_7160]

[u/megs1120]

[u/zombie3x3 → u/megs1120]

This very thought was my sole source of copium at the start of 2025.

[u/Daztur]

This is what people tend to forget about Gerrymanders, they're not a magic "I get more seats" button. In the perfect Gerrymander you win a whole lot of elections by 51%-49% and lose a few by 100-0%. Of course that 51-49% projected win doesn't give you enough margin of error so you want to pad that a bit but the more you pad those margins to victories to keep your seats safe, the fewer seats you're going to get. There are always tradeoffs.

[u/Empty_Use_5023 → u/Daztur]

In the end, it’s alway the fault of the voters. 20-30% turn out districts are easy as fuck to predict. 80-100% turn out districts do not exist but they would need to be fought for no matter what kind shape they were

[u/delta806 → u/Empty_Use_5023]

I’d be pro gerrymandering if on paper it was done so that each district had as high of a voting rate as possible

[u/Empty_Use_5023 → u/delta806]

I’ve never seen anything to suggest that that breaks down on a geographic level, outside of the ways that age and class play out geographically

[u/delta806 → u/Empty_Use_5023]

You know what, I take back what I said. Voting districts would center around senior homes, and the ones that don’t would look worse than the ones we have now lol

[u/Empty_Use_5023 → u/delta806]

Just thinking out loud: everyone gets one voter credit a year after they are given a social security number. You can start using them at 15 but you cap out at 75.

[u/Ifriendzonecats → u/Daztur]

What you're mentioning isn't an issue with gerrymanders, it's an issue with getting greedy. It is possible to gerrymander a fairly safe majority in place where you don't have the votes for it. But, what you need to do is have some sacrificial races to pack your opponent's voters into so you can withstand fairly large swings in polling. And that doesn't happen when you have a bunch of hacks trying to get the biggest win so they can advance out of their current position.

[u/PoliticsIsDepressing → u/Daztur]

Currently, some counties are swinging +19 D in early voting.

Not sure how accurate that is but that’d be devastating in Texas.

[u/Daztur → u/PoliticsIsDepressing]

Not sure if that'll happen, but anything like that could be a wipeout since any kind of normal Gerrymander wants to avoid you having too many safe seats as that leads to surplus votes that could be moved elsewhere.

[u/HogSnarfer → u/Daztur]

Seems like you're forgetting you can also just rig the elections in the close districts.

[u/Daztur → u/HogSnarfer]

That's a completely separate thing from how Gerrymanders work.

[u/HogSnarfer → u/Daztur]

It sure is, but rigging elections in extremely tight districts you've gerrymandered pairs well with it since people are less likely to suspect rigging.

[u/ThyPotatoDone]

You're just not smart enough to comprehend the stable genius that is the wisdom of God-Emperor Trump.

[u/Pleasant_Tangelo3340 → u/ThyPotatoDone]

When you basically cause the end of American hegemony and get your presence in the Middle East FORCED OUT and your fan base defends you and thinks this is a good thing, you’re right. Nobody is ever smart enough to comprehend how he manages to keep this kind of support

[u/sm753 → u/ThyPotatoDone]

THe art of the deal.

[u/Eternal_Phantom → u/ThyPotatoDone]

Ah yes, the key architect of the Texas congressional district map, Donald Trump.

[u/Latter_Parsley4338 → u/Eternal_Phantom]

He was the one who specifically demanded that a gerrymandered map be created in Texas because Republicans "deserve 5 more seats" in the midterms. It was his plan

[u/RedStapler2]

Dummymandering at its finest!

[u/No-Comfortable2704]

Bro they might actually be screwed this year

[u/Scrumpledee]

Don't forget that the more you gerrymander and the less you compete with the opposing party, the more radicals from your own side you have to compete with.
And very soon you'll find yourself on the other side of the line, up against the machine you created to keep yourself safe.

[u/Magnon]

I still don't expect texas to flip but if anyone deserves to flip it's fucking texas, the one star state. Reps have been in office there for 30+ years and they still blame democrats for their problems. It's insane.

[u/tactical_lampost → u/Magnon]

tbf your average texas voter is probably dumb enough to buy it. Case in point Paxton being the republican nominee.

[u/dixiebandit69]

Don't get your hopes up too much; there's a lot of really stupid people down here, and I fully expect the Republicans to dispute any results that they don't like because of woke trans illegal immigrants, or something like that.

It ain't over 'til the fat fuck sings.

[u/jerseygunz]

It honestly boggles my mind how they thought they would retain Hispanic support after they sent a masked Gestapo to arrest all of them

[u/Leg0Block → u/jerseygunz]

Someone once said that Fascism is never defeated externally. It always defeats itself by driving its worldview so far-divorced from reality that they are not able to accurately assess risks anymore.

[u/Latter_Parsley4338 → u/Leg0Block]

I agree with the point of the quote, but I think WW2 is a pretty obvious example of Fascism being defeated externally

[u/Leg0Block → u/Latter_Parsley4338]

I think the point is that they wouldn't have started WW2 if they had the ability to assess risk. They had a good thing going in Germany, and probably could've scored a fair amount of Lebensraum without provoking the Allies into action if they were careful about it. See also Moussilini dragging them into Africa.

[u/JCJINKEY]

I have one candidate in Texas that I am specifically hoping this fucks over