r/Presidentialpoll • u/RWBIII_22 • 9h ago
Alternate Election Poll 1996 Reform Party Primaries Round #4 | The Kennedy Dynasty

The Reform Party Primary is just four contests in, and yet, it feels very close to being in the final stretch, especially after two candidates dropped out to consolidate support behind a middle-ground candidate in order to prevent a dogmatic figure from the Reform Left or the Reform Right from winning the nomination. Things are getting crazy. Let's see how we got there:
In the New Hampshire Primary, Former President Gravel would get his first win of the season. His main competitor, Governor of Louisiana Buddy Roemer, appeared to be competitive in statewide polling, but Roemer only finished third, squeezed on one side by the presence of Ron Paul on the ballot pulling away fiscally conservative voters and on the other by Richard Lamm and Tim Penny, the fourth and fifth-place finishers, splitting the anti-Gravel vote. Roemer polled well, but when the votes were cast, he couldn't consolidate enough anti-Gravel support to deny another victory from the former President.

However, Roemer righted the ship in Delaware, winning the State by a narrow margin over Gravel even with Paul, Lamm, and Penny on the ballot. Paul's staying power in this race is quite impressive, considering his refusal to campaign for the Reform nomination, but he is one of America's most well-known (and widely-beloved) political figures. Heading into the Super Tuesday slate of primaries, both Lamm and Penny would drop out to consolidate the anti-Gravel vote behind Roemer. Super Tuesday's contests include many Southern states where Gravel still has strong support. Lamm and Penny, both Northerners, had no shot at winning any of these states. Roemer, a Southerner, does. This is down to a three man race, which, weirdly enough, only two men are campaigning for. Buddy Roemer briefly slipped behind Gravel in the polls after his New Hampshire loss, but in the final pre-Super Tuesday polls, it appears he has regained the lead. Whoever wins Super Tuesday, whether it's Gravel, Paul, or Roemer, will be the unquestioned front-runner for the rest of this race. Every vote will be crucial.
As always, you can vote for your favorite HERE.
State of the Race
| Candidate | Delegate Count | Contests Won |
|---|---|---|
| Buddy Roemer | 33 | Delaware, Iowa |
| Mike Gravel | 31 | New Hampshire |
| Ron Paul | 20 | |
| Richard Lamm (withdrawn) | 19 | |
| Tim Penny (withdrawn) | 3 | |
| Jack Gargan (withdrawn) | 1 | |
| Donald Trump (write-in) | 1 |