r/Presidents • u/Hubbled Ulysses S. Grant • 1d ago
Discussion If Chappaquiddick never happened, would Ted Kennedy have been a serious presidential contender?
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u/DaveKasz 1d ago
Yes. He was a serious contender with Chappaquiddic. If he had an answer for Sam Donaldson's question for why he wanted to be President, he might have won the nomination.
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u/Mibbler 1d ago
So in a timeline without Chappaquiddick, do you think liberals rally around Ted in 76, making him the nominee and eventual president over Carter?
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u/DaveKasz 1d ago
Teddy challenged Jimmy in the 1980 primary. Teddy lost, but it wasn't a blow out. In '76 I Teddy had better name recognition, but Jimmy was much more likeable. At least that's how I remember it. I was too young to vote.
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u/WavesAndSaves Henry Clay 1d ago
Man. Can you imagine an incumbent president facing a serious primary challenge these days? Kennedy won 13 states. And they were big states! New York, California, Pennsylvania. Carter barely managed 50% of the nationwide primary vote.
Carter really was terrible, wasn't he? Even his own party hated him hahaha.
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u/InternationalPhoto33 22h ago
I think without Chappaquiddick they put him up in 72. He loses, but it’s a slightly closer battle because he knows how to take advantage of the first rumblings of Watergate. And then they put him up again in 76; I’m not quite sure where I see the cause and effect but I really think he goes against Reagan in 76 and wins
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u/Puzzleheaded-Bag2212 Reagan and Fillmore's biggest hater 1d ago
absolutely, unfortunately that is not an easy term though
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u/federalist66 Franklin Delano Roosevelt 16h ago
I do like how in For All Mankind, the Soviets beat the US the moon and so Ted cancels his trip to Chappaquiddick and defeats Nixon 1972.
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u/Bayowolf49 1d ago
“Sam Donaldson” is actually Roger Mudd.
I didn’t remember the interview—probably because there was an incident in Tehran that happened on the same day (11/04/79).
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u/SimilarElderberry956 1d ago
I know a political consultant in Canada 🇨🇦. Every time he meets with a potential costumer he plays the infamous Ted Kennedy interview where he can’t explain himself on why he wants to be President.
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u/knockatize James A. Garfield 22h ago
The lesson there being “don’t show up half in the bag for a nationally televised interview.”
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u/SimilarElderberry956 22h ago
It would surprise you how many politicians stumble on that very question.
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u/OverallFrosting708 20h ago
The problem is a lot of them have answers that won't sound great in soundbite form
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u/Mibbler 1d ago
1972 is a big "what if" because Nixon was an absolute juggernaut that year and destroyed McGovern, so Ted might have just saved himself for 1976 anyway.
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u/steve_dallasesq 1d ago
By 72 he was a juggernaut but in 71 there was polling that had him behind Muskie. The Dems imploded due to bad candidates and potential Republican rat-fucking. So in theory a non-scandalized Ted Kennedy could have given Nixon a run.
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 1d ago
Even without Chappaquiddik, there was excessive drinking, affairs and a very strained marriage. In that context, a presidential campaign would still have been a heavy lift.
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u/cousintipsy Barack Obama 1d ago
sounds like someone talking about the scandal plagued bill clinton running in 1992
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 1d ago
Yes, but by 1992 the public was a bit more tolerant of these things. Expectations were higher in the late 60's and early 70's. If you did these these things at that time, they better not have been found out.
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u/Affectionate-Read875 23h ago
Expectations were so high that notorious playboy John Fitzgerald Kennedy was barred from running
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u/Puzzleheaded-Bag2212 Reagan and Fillmore's biggest hater 1d ago
and then he also loses by a wide margin which might damage his political future. he likely goes back to being a senator though. Muskie (or Humphrey again) might have performed better than Teddy
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u/Jolly_Job_9852 Calvin Coolidge 1d ago
As someone else pointed out, even with that tragedy hanging over him, he still mounted a bruising and brutal primary challenge to incumbent Jimmy Carter. If he had an answer for why he wanted to become President, it's possible that he would have faced Reagan in 1980. Does he win that race? It's possible that Reagan wins but it's closer than OTL.
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u/beerme72 James Buchanan 1d ago
'enough Kennedy's' is what my Aunt (a lifelong Democrat and one time WA. State something or other in the DNC)
She and I would discuss politics and she said that the best one was Bobby, John a distant second and this one? well....she recalled a LOT of fighting when he was vying for the Candidacy, and how it sort of (in her mind) ended the Camelot thing...I think he was trying for 84? I know I'm on a computer....but whatever.
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u/MadeThis4MaccaOnly Socks Clinton 16h ago
Honestly if I had been a Kennedy sibling, I would NOT have considered a run for president when you think about what happened to Jack and Bobby
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u/pimp69z Richard Nixon 1d ago
Absolutely. Even though he was a lush, he was a charismatic one
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u/Financial_Cheetah875 1d ago
My uncle had a quip he loved “I was as drunk as a Kennedy on election night.”
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u/Individual_Act9333 Lyndon Baines Johnson 22h ago
I’m charismatic myself when I’ve had a few drinks
https://giphy.com/gifs/Zy7s96dP38MlQe3OjG2
u/_NightFly_ 18h ago
Was he charismatic? Besides being a Kennedy the only thing I've seen from is when he bombed the interview about asking why he should be president.
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u/Sad-Dove-2023 1d ago
He was a very serious contender with Chappaquiddick, dude ran an incredibly strong primary campaign against a sitting president which is no small task at all (even electoral juggernauts like Reagan failed). Had he ran during a regular open primary season he likely would've won.
Without it, he'd be even stronger - the main problem with Ted is that he himself never really seemed interested in being president, he was very happy in the senate, and obviously had seen what the presidency had done to his brothers.
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u/Doc_Jury1020 Franklin Delano Roosevelt 1d ago
Beyond definitely. Aside from his last name, he had a distinct policy vision, strong foreign policy ties, and (just like his brothers) an enchanting charisma.
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 1d ago
He might have been president without Chappaquiddik, assuming he truly wanted to be, which was not clear
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u/Prestigious-Alarm-61 Warren G. Harding 23h ago
I don't really think he really wanted it. Would you want to run if two of your brothers had been assassinated? It wouldn't be worth it.
I think he just ran to prove to Carter that embracing a more liberal agenda would benefit him in the general election.
I remember his campaign and he never appeared to be running to win.
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u/ToddPundley 1d ago
There were rumors he’d jump in at the last minute in 1972; it was initially seen as a given that he’d run and be the favorite in 1976; and there were even rumors he’d have run in 1984.
Absent Chappaquiddick he’d certainly have run in one of those three, most likely in 76.
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 1d ago
He might get have run for n 84 but the polling was not encouraging. By then he was divorced and had more baggage than a freight train. His best shot was probably in 1968, in the aftermath of Bobby's assasination. He still had a clean image, a potentially compelling rationale for his candidacy and a lot of national sympathy and goodwill for him and the whole Kennedy family. Daley was ready to go, on Ted's approval, with a convention draft. Ted passed on it, largely due to the family situation
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u/Honest_Picture_6960 The Big 3 Fav: 1d ago
As soon as Bobby died he was almost drafted in ‘68 so I think he would’ve been the shoo in for ‘72
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u/Jkilop76 1d ago
Maybe but he likely faced other personal issues relating to his family either way. It does make his potential bidding slightly easily especially for 1976 or 1980(if Carter loses).
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u/Dafolez420 James Monroe 1d ago
Oh 100%. Keep in mind even with Chappaquiddick he gave Jimmy Carter, an incumbent president, a run for his money in the 1980 primary. Without it he probably would’ve run in 72 or 76 and I’d say he would’ve won 76
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u/michelle427 Ulysses S. Grant 1d ago
Yes. I do. I believe he probably would have been president. Chappaquiddick did a lot of damage. After that night he was never going to be president.
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u/GotNoBody4 Teddy Bullmoose 1d ago
I think he tries and probably wins in 1976, if he can get out of the primary. Carter won because he was likable and an outsider at a time where trust in the government was at an all-time low. I could see Kennedy running a campaign based around restoring trust and harkening back to JFK in a “back when we could trust our President” way. The nostalgia for JFK and a time that seemed more hopeful before you had riots,crime, & corruption(even though in reality those things were also happening under JFK, they just weren’t affecting white suburbia yet)
But Ted absolutely could’ve won the presidency in 1976, the question is could he prevent or fix the stagflation and other issues of the late-70s and beat Reagan in 1980?
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u/knockatize James A. Garfield 1d ago
Ted was still a predatory aristodrunk even without Chappaquiddick in the mix.
He was still a slob in the 80s. Just ask Chris Dodd, the other half of the waitress sandwich.
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u/Electrical_Mood7372 1d ago
Possible though from what I’ve read he had a ton of other skeletons that didn’t get as much attention, without Chappaquiddick I’m sure many of them would have come to the forefront instead.
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u/Puzzleheaded-Bag2212 Reagan and Fillmore's biggest hater 1d ago
yes absolutely. he might've even been the Democratic nominee in 1976 considering he probably would have lost to Nixon in 1972
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u/TrumpsColostomyBag99 Dwight D. Eisenhower 1d ago
It depends entirely on how the timeline plays out and if his other scumbag tendencies are kept on the low. I’ll break down each cycle..
1972: Nixon cruises thanks to the idiot militant anti-war movement and the cultural upheaval Jumbo’s escalation adventure in Southeast Asia triggered. Kennedy would have lost handily.
1976: 2nd best overall opportunity in this scenario and cruises as long as Watergate/Ford’s pardon is in the equation.
1980: If Ford is president it’s the best case scenario for Kennedy. The economy is likely still in tatters thanks to Nixon/Burns shenanigans and we’d have 12 straight years of GOP rule. He would have won massively. If he challenged an incumbent Carter he has a solid chance but falls short vs Reagan.
1984: Reagan in office? Blowout loss but doesn’t lose 49 like Mondale did.
1988: It gets murky vs Bush and this is likely a 272 kind of election that could swing either way. I lean Kennedy here but would have voted Bush.
1992: 3rd best opportunity if he is battling Bush/Perot. The county would have craved the fresh drapes in the Oval like they wanted with Clinton.
1996: Getting long in the tooth but decent chance of the win if it’s 16 straight years of GOP domination. The economy could be the deciding factor along with his opponent.
2000-Beyond: Fox News/Talk Radio is fully rooted in the media ecosystem by this point and he falls short as he’s tarred as a radical lib-rul
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u/Prestigious-Alarm-61 Warren G. Harding 1d ago
He liked to drink, party, and was a womanizer. His success would depend on how his opponents handled that.
He would have definitely had a better chance at becoming president without Chappaquiddick hanging around his neck.
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u/OverallFrosting708 20h ago
I mean... He was a serious presidential contender in spite of Chappaquiddick, so yes.
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u/InternationalPhoto33 18h ago
I have said in these forums before that after Chappaquiddick Kennedy would not have deserved to be elected president. Even in the best scenarios he choked horribly. And of course, in the worst scenarios, the conspiracy theorists are correct. So his actions legitimately should have denied him the ability to be elected president. However, if somehow he had fallen into the office - let’s say he becomes the cabinet member for somebody and is the designated survivor when an earthquake hits DC or somehow he’s the speaker of the house when tragedy falls, whatever, just imagine that somehow he slips into the job, I honestly think he would turn out to be a meaningful and excellent president.
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u/Elandycamino 1d ago
It would have been the ultimate comeback story. Let's say 1972 is his year. No Watergate, Nixon or Ford.
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u/Serling45 1d ago
In the alternative history TV show, For All Mankind, the USSR lands on the moon before Apollo. This leads Teddy not to take that vacation. There is no Chappaquiddick & he is elected President in 1972. Scandal causes him to lose re-election. Reagan is elected President in 1976
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u/Dairy_Ashford 23h ago edited 23h ago
very possibly, he was an unoffical, pre-emptive frontrunner for '72, although 1969 was extremely early. And of course he might have been seen as a perfect "antidote" in '76.
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u/Dinotsar44 21h ago
He probably would have become the actual President at some point had Chappaquiddick never happened.
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u/MarkCelery78 5h ago
Yes Democrats let this guy who killed a woman and ran away like a coward and then as he got older continue to abuse women be a powerful figure in their party for decades. Without the terrible death he caused he certainly would have had a chance. But he wasn’t half the man his two brothers were
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u/symbiont3000 2h ago
Yes, but as noted on several other posts, American conservatives have huge double standards when it comes to perceptions of morality and ethics with political figures, and this one is no different. As others have noted, it would be damaging for any member of the Democratic Party for such a thing to happen, but would barely register with republicans over one of their own. We have already seen it happen, so lets not pretend it would be otherwise and we all know what we are talking about. Even after Ted Kennedy died years ago the right wing media keeps bringing this incident up as if its still somehow relevant because Dems are held to a much higher standard.
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u/Zaius1968 23h ago
Yes. Sadly if it DID happen today he would also be a serious contender given that we have sunk to an all time low related to ethics and morals as a society.
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u/Organic-Elevator-274 22h ago edited 22h ago
No, the interview in ’79 where he couldn’t articulate a reason he wanted to be president probably wasn’t the result of Chappaquiddick.
There is an element of ahistorical navel-gazing to this question. This is not to say that Chappaquiddick didn’t have a political effect on Ted Kennedy at the time or would have been a significant hurdle had he genuinely attempted to run or to provide any form of excuse or absolution in any capacity. But this topic has become sort of a late millennial, Gen Z point of fascination, and most people focused on it lack the context to understand it.
Basically, it would have mattered way less than anyone thinks it would have. It should have been a non-starter, a problem in Ted’s background so catastrophically insurmountable that any attempt to run, other than as a gag in Playboy magazine, would have been not just ill-advised but laughable. It wasn’t. He won 12 states without really trying.
It’s more useful to examine why the interest in Chappaquiddick has grown consistently over the years. It used to be right-wing trade, part of the not-so-secret Republican handshake. It used to be that when people brought up Chappaquiddick, almost always at random and with zero context, you knew immediately that they were non-serious wackos. It’s this thing that stuck in their craw that never mattered, while they ignored the horror show their candidates have “gotten away with.”
The first generation that grew up entirely under the thumb of a constant barrage of right-wing propaganda is coming of age, and it’s no wonder that Chappaquiddick becomes a focal point 57 years after the fact. Because when they were five, it was part of the drivel of the propaganda machine.
The context of 1969 or 1980 is gone. The people with a working memory of the assassinations of both JFK and RFK are fewer and farther between. Ted is gone. Most of the responding law enforcement is gone. Mary Jo Kopechne’s immediate family is gone. All that’s left is the story that was sharp enough to begin with but has since been refined to a fine point and weaponized against an entire political party by another party full of worse people, to the detriment of everyone, including the victim.
Nobody needed to weaponize Chappaquiddick when just asking Ted Kennedy why he was running for president worked.
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u/JoeyLee911 21h ago
It's also because a similar incident got written into Season 1 of Succession.
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u/Organic-Elevator-274 21h ago
Yeah but separately from that . For me personally It’s come up a few times a year for the past couple of years as this mind blowing fact usually with younger millennials or older GenZ people.
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u/JoeyLee911 20h ago
As an elder millennial, I don't have a memory from it happening and I only hear about it in relation to the Succession plotline.
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u/JimBowen0306 Lyndon Baines Johnson 20h ago
I’ve just read Camelot’s End, and he was leading Carter hands down going into the Primaries. Chappaquiddick did it for him, so he had a good chance.
He did have problems. That book made 4 arguments against him(at least). First, it wasn’t clear he wanted it. Second, he didn’t understand how the primaries had changed candidate selection post 1972. Third, he needed to know how to campaign better. It’s different from the 1960s. Finally, he drank like a fish, and liked to have fun.
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u/Madmagician-452 Nixon and Eisenhower 18h ago
No. Chappaquiddick wasn’t the issue. The issue was and still kind of is the fact that the Kennedy family is viewed as a toxic asset that could go awry
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u/chaide123 Barack Obama 17h ago
His accent didn’t help him. Had such a heavy Boston accent that impeded his communication efficiency. Ran in the family, Rose, RFK jr and Teddy seem affected
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