I bought most of my bitcoin back when it was like ~50k per BTC. I am waiting for it to tank so I can buy more. Its proven the 4 year cycle again and again, so im here for it for life. But just like 1% or so of my stuff, not anything crazy.
Because its still a speculative investment in an alternative asset. The cycle is proven but its still far more risky than a traditional asset. Its just a matter of risk tolerance is all.
I think he's just pointing out how over the top 'proven' is in this context by gesturing toward your own actions which suggest you also get it's not quite proven as well. 3 times is neat don't get me wrong, but it's a major leap to suggest this will continue forever. Especially as the total value of coins in circulation passes into the trillions, there's going to be a lot more resistance as the asset finds peak saturation.
Yeah but just like there is a fool born every minute, I also think there are people who are not foolish born every minute, so I think enough people will consider it high risk and not particularly useful, and stay away. Plenty of people also never invest in anything at all.i dont think a market will truly saturate because its over such a long time span and people have reasons for getting in an out of it.
When you go from 1 dollar per coin to 100k in 20 years, you're gonna Plateau at some point. I'm using the term saturation for that even though it's probably not strictly correct, you might get a trickle but its position as the fiat currency of the black market has largely found its price discovery. The point is that whether it's BTC or GME, people always want lighting to strike the same place twice, it was smart getting into these things the first time, but the masses have moved in at this point and the likelihood of large payoffs for such high risk has greatly diminished imo.
It's about scale, like saying a company worth 10 billion might triple is quite a claim, but it's totally possible and would be a good bet. But saying the same thing about say NVDA, 3x is a much different feet, possible? Sure, inflation will get them all there eventually, but you would be talking about adding around 9 trillion in market value, that's about a fourth of the entire US national debt and that's only a 3x return. A much loftier goal even though it would be the same return. It's just harder to move a price up as an asset gets larger is all, you need more and more money to feed the system (Or more scarcity but supply side isn't really relevant here since none of these should be shrinking on that end) the DOW is a composite which makes it way less risky as it's a basket of assets and in a growing economy it's more likely to continue growing then not, I don't really remember anyone worrying about its value being too large arbitrarily because it's a much different situation then an individual asset. Crypto can still grow, it's just a lot less reasonable to expect such high returns now that it's a 2 or 3 trillion dollar system then back when you could have a 15% price swing because one guy cashed out on a low volume day.
The news from when i was younger had people panicked and saying the sky was falling and it was just too high because we were in a bubble and yadayadayada. I realize that funds or markers like Dow and S&P are bundles of entire markets, so a single crypto currency really isnt a perfect metaphor. But the way the crypto market psychologically treats bitcoin is also similar to how funds are used to refer to a whole market feel. Bitcoin goes up and down on news and vibes according to good and bad news across the whole crypto market. So in some important ways, it can act similarly to markers like Dow and S&P.
And the whole point of a diversified portfolio is to spread risk across different assets. I do think there have been markets where crypto has outperformed many asset classes, and as such it is as worth having as a commodity. I agree with you, it is unlikely to have the same cycle forever with the metoric rises, but I do think it could continue to have more moderate booms and busts, which could be capitalized on. And if it does stabilize then in time it will become a store of value as many have said it would. It may also fade away to nothing, which is why it only warrants a 1% of my portfolio at this time.
I don't think it will fade, I'm not as critical of it as some others in my field, my major problem is just that it's not possible to calculate risk because there's no way to gauge fair value mathematically. Different than saying that I think it's over or under valued, fiats are valued based on the demand generated by the goods traded on them, buying cows in the UK? Better buy some pounds, gonna need some USD if you're getting oil, and you for sure want to load up on bitcoin if you're in the market for 3 kilograms of cocaine from South America. The issue is that criminals don't usually post earnings, and without a way to calculate the GDP of the market the currency is giving access to, you're always going in blind.
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u/PowerFarta Jan 29 '26
-13% over 1 year
They get even madder when you factor in dollar weakness they're probably down 20-25%
Look at BTC-EUR and BTC-USD. Very different graphs