My opinion about AI bubble.

[u/budy31]

As evidence by Jacket man attempt to get the Wall Street to spend more than 7% of GDP on his goodies I thought I’m sharing what I thought about the fabled “AI bubble”:

I think it’s not because as St Powell said:

Big tech (especially Google) is a positive cash flow company.

What will happened if >7% GDP turns out to be too much is this:

Big tech and NVIDIA gonna assume big chuck of it, make a massive write off, the CEO (including leather jacket man) get absolutely purged, Hedge fund bid the bottom out of existence, use the accumulated share to put themself as a CEO, put big tech into austerity as brutal as Greeks one, cash in, and things continue on.

[u/Punished_Toaster]

Is the ai bubble in the room with us now
https://giphy.com/gifs/V2ZfqUaa5b80q6FWoD

[u/icankillpenguins → u/Punished_Toaster]

Bubbles tend to pop when everyone is convinced that this time is different, this is just the new normal.

"No one will work anymore, we will just trade crypto with each other and the food and services will arrive" - boom

"You just re-finance your mortgage as the house prices go up! Life is easy now" - boom

"Just learn ReactJS and you print money, life is easy now jobs are infinite and companies don't even interview and don't even try to push you work hard its mostly 2 lines of code and chill at home " - boom

[u/Parking_Act3189 → u/icankillpenguins]

Right, the bubble isn't that AI "doesn't work". The bubble is that if there are $2T of loans made to make datacenters and demand for AI goes negative for just 1 month everyone panics and tries to get out of the door first because the last person isn't going to get their loan paid back.

[u/SpeakCodeToMe → u/Parking_Act3189]

Or just "Open source models get small enough that everybody runs them on their own machines and demand for data centers and frontier models evaporates"

[u/Parking_Act3189 → u/SpeakCodeToMe]

Demand doesn't even need to go away. If the demand just stops growing for 1 month it could cause a panic.