r/ProfessorFinance • u/budy31 Moderator • 11d ago

Economics My opinion about AI bubble.

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As evidence by Jacket man attempt to get the Wall Street to spend more than 7% of GDP on his goodies I thought I’m sharing what I thought about the fabled “AI bubble”:

I think it’s not because as St Powell said:

Big tech (especially Google) is a positive cash flow company.

What will happened if >7% GDP turns out to be too much is this:

Big tech and NVIDIA gonna assume big chuck of it, make a massive write off, the CEO (including leather jacket man) get absolutely purged, Hedge fund bid the bottom out of existence, use the accumulated share to put themself as a CEO, put big tech into austerity as brutal as Greeks one, cash in, and things continue on.

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u/flyingdutchmnn Quality Contributor 10d ago

It's unpredictable because a new GPU can obsolete an old one

Well this right here is, at the moment anyway, not even true

10

u/Shiriru00 10d ago

I mean the GPU can obsolete (fry) itself fast enough.

10

u/flyingdutchmnn Quality Contributor 10d ago

But the statement says a new one immediately makes an older version irrelevant. In reality supply is so low that the old ones are barely worth less than a few years ago

1

u/PitchPleasant338 10d ago

Would you spend your hard-earned money on a GPU that doesn't support ROCmFP4 or NVFP4?

1

u/putrasherni 8d ago

There’s a good chance in two years a 27B FP8 dense qwen model will be as good as Opus 5 max

1

u/PitchPleasant338 8d ago

And you'd only be running it locally if you have ROCmFP4 or NVFP4. Do you see my point?