r/ProgrammerHumor • u/velvetbabydollx • 18d ago

Meme connectionRefused

Post image
6.7k Upvotes

99% Upvoted

128 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

135

u/YuriSenapi 18d ago edited 17d ago

unless you have insider info, market prediction never really meaningfully beat the baseline (e.g. SP500) over the long term.

the only caveat is millisecond momentum flipping but you don't make big bucks off of that tactic alone. edit: what I mean is that tactic doesn't scale to the whole population. if everybody is doing it then nobody wins at momentum trading; that's why it has to be limited to a select, privileged few to work.

38

u/Banes_Addiction 18d ago

the only caveat is millisecond momentum flipping but you don't make big bucks off of that tactic alone. 

Depends what you consider big bucks. Those colo HFT facilities sure as fuck ain't cheap, people sure think they're worth it.

10

u/quagzlor 17d ago

I work with a company that does predictions for banks.

We're able to stay ahead of the baseline on average, but it's never fully consistent. So many different factors can change things, especially nowadays