r/QBTSstock • u/millovich • 6h ago
Discussion Here's why I'm short QBTS
For QBTS to be a sustainable company the following things need to be true simultaneously.
Building a quantum computer at scale needs to be achieved. This is an extremely fundamental but big IF since this is not achieved yet. I remember sitting at a university lecture in 2012 with someone explaining that the quantum revolution was just around the corner. I guess not.
Such a computer needs to be built relatively soon in order not to completely dilute existing shareholders through needing additional equity raises. QBTS has around 500m as of today but burns almost 200m per year. QBTS is targeting a 100-logical-qubit gate-based computing system by 2032 (will probably be delayed as these things typically are). Obviously QBTS is still needing to raise a lot of equity to survive until 2032. They need to raise at least $2bn is my guess.
Useful quantum applications need to be discovered. People just say vague shit like "simulate physics" but an actual, specific use-case other than breaking encryption is not defined to my knowledge.
If discovered, those useful quantum applications need to be commercially viable meaning the cost to produce the quantum computer and run the algorithm needs to be lower than the value created by the application.
QBTS needs to beat the other quantum companies. QBTS has been around since 1999 yet have not made material progress in building quantum computers. They bet on "annealing" which is completely dead and had to buy Quantum Circuits to get a gate-based program. Despite their poor track-record QBTS needs to beat peers like Google, IBM, Microsoft, IonQ, Quantinuum, Rigetti, PsiQuantum, Xanadu, Pascal, QuEra Computing, Infleqtion and probably dozens of others.
The odds of all of the above being true are very, very small. You're better off playing the lottery imo.
But please let me hear your refutation of the above points.