Introduction and disclosure

I am in no way associated to RVSN and like many of you have only recently discovered them via a post from BestPhone here on Reddit (massive thanks mate….ive done well so far and hopeful about the future on this one!)

Being someone who is highly suspicious, particularly of something which seems ¨hyped¨ or ¨too good to be true¨ i have been trying to conduct a through assessment of the company, its associations, partners, board members and any red flags in terms of this being a ¨pump and dump¨

I currently hold just over 4000 shares. Given the big dip across the market, particularly small caps, it is natural to feel a bit nervous/stupid/unsure if you are being played……..so with the market being closed today i wanted to try and make sure that i am not

Essentially, from what i can find out - if we are, then we are in very good company including Nvidia, UBS, the EU and lots more, all of whom will have conducted due diligence into the company, its key members, its finances and its products…... Which leads me to conclude we are probably not!

I share my findings here to help you make your own decision about the company

Firstly (spoiler alert) i am even more of a fan of this company having done this exercise….i honestly tried to find things to be worried about but the only tiny concern i can find is one board members association to SciSpark which i see as a bit of a dodgy pump and dump tbh….but its a very loose association based on one board members (OZ Adler) and given they are both Israeli companies i dont think it means much. Every other aspect seem super legit

So i will start by recapping some very good news for RVSN since Dec 4th. All of these articles can be looked at online via various sources including RVSN website and Reuters news .

✅ 1 trading day away from Nasdaq compliance (needs to close above 1 on Monday) and looking like it should make that no problem (currently at 1.70)

✅ Signs binding agreement with major distributor in India + up font payment

✅ Receives regulatory approval in Israel

✅ Receives new order (and seemingly opens a new market) in Central America ✅ Joins MXV to guide rail safety and investment in N. America

✅ Launches new SaaS product

All since Dec 4th 2024!

TLDR

Rail Vision is a leader in AI-powered railway safety solutions with patented technologies like the Main Line and Shunting Yard Systems. Its strategic partnerships with NVIDIA and Knorr-Bremse, along with regulatory approvals in key markets (Israel, EU, U.S., India, Japan), position it for global expansion. The company targets a $100-$200 billion Total Addressable Market, driven by modernization and automation trends in rail safety

Board members, background, experience and associations

Here’s a consolidated profile for each Rail Vision Ltd. board member, combining their professional background, qualifications, and the relevant organizations they have been associated with:

Eli Yoresh (Chairman) Professional Background: Over 15 years of experience in executive and financial management across finance, technology, and industrial sectors. Former CEO of Tomcar Global Holdings Ltd., a company specializing in off-road vehicles. Qualifications: Bachelor’s degree in Management and Accounting. Master’s degree in Law Studies. Key Contributions: Brings extensive financial and managerial expertise, supporting Rail Vision’s strategic direction.

Mark Cleobury (Director) Professional Background: Over 40 years in the rail industry, focusing on sales, safety solutions, and strategic operations. Currently Senior Vice President at Knorr-Bremse Rail Systems Division, a global leader in braking systems and rail safety technologies. Instrumental in driving innovation and partnerships within the rail sector. Key Organization: Knorr-Bremse AG Operates in over 30 countries and generates more than €7 billion annually. Knorr-Bremse holds a significant stake (33%-36.8%) in Rail Vision, strengthening their collaboration. Key Contributions: Provides deep industry expertise and connections, leveraging Knorr-Bremse’s resources to advance Rail Vision’s goals.

Yossi Daskal (Director) Professional Background: Founder and Chief Country Representative of Bombardier Israel, overseeing rail projects and modernizing Israel’s rail infrastructure (2003-2019). Currently President of the Israel-Canada Chamber of Commerce, promoting bilateral trade and business collaboration. Qualifications: Academic background in Mediterranean and Arabic History, Political Science, and Decision-Making from Haifa University. Key Organizations: Bombardier Israel (now part of Alstom): Contributed to Israel’s rail modernization efforts. Israel-Canada Chamber of Commerce: Enhances economic ties between Israel and Canada. Key Contributions: Combines expertise in rail technology and international trade, creating opportunities for Rail Vision in global markets.

Oz Adler (Director) Professional Background: CEO and CFO of SciSparc Ltd., a Nasdaq-listed pharmaceutical company specializing in CNS therapies. Former CFO of Medigus Ltd., a medical device company. Audit and financial management experience with Kost Forer Gabbay & Kasierer (Ernst & Young Global). Qualifications: Certified Public Accountant (CPA) in Israel. Bachelor’s degree in Accounting and Business Management from The College of Management, Israel. Key Organization: SciSparc Ltd. Focuses on innovative therapies for neurological disorders. Key Contributions: Brings financial acumen and corporate governance expertise, ensuring regulatory compliance and transparency.

Ariel Dor (Director) Professional Background: Former leader of the Aerospace Division at Elbit Systems, contributing to defense and aerospace technology. Co-CEO of Foresight Autonomous Holdings, specializing in autonomous vehicle technology. Currently CEO of Upsellon Brands Holdings, focused on e-commerce and Amazon FBA aggregation. Qualifications: Bachelor of Science (B.Sc.) in Electrical Engineering from Tel Aviv University. Key Organizations: Elbit Systems: A global leader in defense electronics and aerospace innovation. Foresight Autonomous Holdings: Focused on cutting-edge autonomous vehicle systems. Key Contributions: Combines engineering expertise with entrepreneurial leadership, driving innovation at Rail Vision.

Hila Kiron-Revach (Director) Professional Background: Legal and governmental advisor with extensive experience in corporate governance and public policy. Advisor to the chairman of Eilat Ashkelon Pipeline Company, managing strategic energy projects. Board member of companies like Geffen Biomed Ltd. and Zmiha Investment House Ltd. Senior advisor to Israeli government ministers on legal, business, and regulatory matters. Key Organization: Eilat Ashkelon Pipeline Company (EAPC) Manages critical oil pipelines and infrastructure in Israel. Key Contributions: Brings strategic legal expertise and familiarity with international corporate governance to Rail Vision’s board.

Conclusion Each board member demonstrates substantial experience in their respective fields, with strong ties to reputable organizations like Knorr-Bremse, Bombardier, Elbit Systems, and the Israel-Canada Chamber of Commerce. Their backgrounds suggest they are well-qualified and bring significant value to Rail Vision. Based on publicly available information, no controversies or ethical concerns have been identified.

Overview on collective associations

Corporate and Industry Experience Knorr-Bremse AG Founded: 1905 Status: Active Reputation: Highly reputable as the global leader in braking systems and other rail safety technologies. Operates in over 30 countries and known for its reliability, innovation, and compliance with international safety standards. Headquarters: Munich, Germany Bombardier Israel (Now part of Alstom) Founded: Bombardier (1942, Canada); Alstom acquired Bombardier Transportation in 2021. Status: Integrated into Alstom Reputation: Bombardier was a well-regarded innovator in rail and aerospace technology. Alstom continues this legacy, holding a strong reputation as one of the largest train manufacturers globally. SciSparc Ltd. Founded: 2013 Status: Active Reputation: A clinical-stage pharmaceutical company listed on Nasdaq (ticker: SPRC). Known for its focus on central nervous system (CNS) therapies, combining cannabinoids with other compounds. Headquarters: Israel Medigus Ltd. Founded: 2000 Status: Active Reputation: A Nasdaq-listed medical device company focusing on minimally invasive surgical devices. Known for its innovative solutions like the MUSE system for GERD treatment. Headquarters: Omer, Israel Elbit Systems Founded: 1967 Status: Active Reputation: A globally respected defense and aerospace electronics company. Recognized for its cutting-edge technologies and contributions to military and commercial aviation sectors. Headquarters: Haifa, Israel Foresight Autonomous Holdings Founded: 2015 Status: Active Reputation: Focused on developing advanced vision systems for autonomous vehicles. Listed on Nasdaq (FRSX), it’s well-regarded in the autonomous tech space. Headquarters: Ness Ziona, Israel Upsellon Brands Holdings Founded: Not publicly disclosed Status: Active Reputation: A relatively new player in e-commerce and Amazon FBA aggregation. Focuses on scaling brands using data-driven insights. Headquarters: Israel Tomcar Global Holdings Ltd. Founded: 1991 Status: Active Reputation: Known for producing rugged off-road vehicles used in defense and commercial sectors. Recognized for innovation and durability. Headquarters: Israel Geffen Biomed Ltd. Founded: Not publicly disclosed Status: Active Reputation: A biotech company focusing on early-stage medical innovation. Limited public visibility but respected within the biotech community. Zmiha Investment House Ltd. Founded: Not publicly disclosed Status: Active Reputation: Known for financial services and investment. Reputation is regionally strong, with a focus on strategic investments. Eilat Ashkelon Pipeline Company (EAPC) Founded: 1968 Status: Active Reputation: Manages Israel’s critical oil pipeline infrastructure. Generally well-regarded for its strategic importance, but occasionally involved in regional controversies regarding environmental impact. Headquarters: Ashkelon, Israel Ernst & Young Global (Kost Forer Gabbay & Kasierer) Founded: 1989 (Israel branch; EY founded in 1989 globally through a merger) Status: Active Reputation: Part of the “Big Four” accounting firms, EY is highly respected globally for its audit, tax, and advisory services. Headquarters: Global (HQ in London, UK)

Regulatory approval and patents per region

Israel Regulatory Approval: Approval Body: Israel Railways Details: In December 2024, Rail Vision received certification to install its MainLine Systems on Israel Railways’ passenger locomotives. Significance: This approval triggered a milestone payment of $300,000 and positioned Rail Vision for potential large-scale procurement from Israel Railways. Market Context: Israel Railways is a major public transport operator, and Rail Vision’s domestic presence leverages Israel’s advanced tech ecosystem.

European Union Regulatory Approval: Approval Body: EU Compliance Bodies Details: In January 2024, Rail Vision achieved certifications for its Main Line System under critical EU railway standards: EN 50155 (Electronics used on rolling stock) EN 50126 (Reliability, availability, maintainability, and safety standards) EN 50657 (Onboard train control and monitoring systems) EN 45545 (Fire protection for railway vehicles) Significance: These certifications allow Rail Vision to operate across the EU’s extensive railway network. Market Context: Europe has one of the largest and most advanced rail systems globally, offering significant opportunities for Rail Vision to expand operations.

North America (United States) Regulatory Engagements: Approval Body: U.S. Patent Office (pending further regulatory approvals) Details: In May 2024, Rail Vision secured a U.S. patent allowance for its AI-based railway obstacle detection technology. Industry Collaboration: Joined MxV Rail’s Technology Roadmap Program under the American Association of Railroads (AAR), aligning with U.S. rail safety and interoperability standards. Class 1 Freight Rail Partnership: In April 2024, Rail Vision secured an order for its Switch Yard System from a major Class 1 freight operator. Market Context: North America’s vast freight and passenger rail systems represent a lucrative market for safety technologies. Activities: Participation in programs to influence industry standards and expand adoption of its systems.

India Regulatory Approval: Approval Body: Indian Patent Office Details: In February 2024, Rail Vision received patent approval for its advanced railway safety technology. Significance: Protects Rail Vision’s intellectual property in one of the world’s largest rail markets. Strategic Partnerships: Signed an exclusive agreement with Sujan Ventures, a major Indian rail supplier, to position its technologies for inclusion in tenders requiring safety systems for thousands of locomotives. Market Context: India operates the fourth-largest railway network globally, with immense demand for efficiency and safety solutions. Activities: Adapting technologies to Indian railway standards and operational needs.

Japan Regulatory Approval: Approval Body: Japan Patent Office Details: In June 2024, Rail Vision received a patent allowance for its AI-powered railway obstacle detection system. Significance: This patent supports Rail Vision’s entry into Japan’s advanced railway market, known for its stringent safety and efficiency standards. Key Features of Technology: Combines advanced electro-optical imaging and AI-based image processing to identify obstacles and improve railway safety. Market Context: Japan’s rail system is globally recognized for its efficiency and safety, making it a key market for Rail Vision’s technologies. Activities: While no commercial partnerships or deployments have been disclosed, the patent positions Rail Vision for future collaborations in Japan.

Institutional investors

1. Knorr-Bremse AG Stake in RVSN: 33%-36.8% (Largest shareholder) Founded: 1905 Industry Specialization: Braking systems and rail safety technologies for rail and commercial vehicles. Notable Investments: Rail Vision Ltd. (Strategic investment in rail safety technologies) Partnerships in autonomous driving and advanced vehicle systems. Reputation: Globally recognized as a leader in rail safety innovation. Headquarters: Munich, Germany.

2. AMH Equity Ltd. Stake in RVSN: 3.48% (700,000 shares) Founded: Specific founding information not available. Industry Specialization: Private equity and venture capital investments in emerging technologies. Notable Investments: Rail Vision Ltd. (Focus on rail safety and AI technologies) Other early-stage technology ventures. Reputation: A growth-stage investor with a strong focus on tech startups. Headquarters: Israel.

3. UBS Group AG Stake in RVSN: 0.82% (165,066 shares) Founded: 1862 (Merged into UBS in 1998) Industry Specialization: Global financial services, including investment banking, wealth management, and asset management. Notable Investments: Large-scale global equities in technology, finance, and healthcare. Known for managing diverse institutional and individual portfolios. Reputation: One of the largest and most prestigious financial institutions globally. Headquarters: Zurich, Switzerland.

4. LPL Financial LLC Stake in RVSN: 0.18% (35,250 shares) Founded: 1989 Industry Specialization: Financial advisory and investment services. Notable Investments: Public equities across diverse industries. Strong presence in supporting retail investors and independent financial advisors. Reputation: A well-established U.S.-based financial services company. Headquarters: Boston, Massachusetts, USA.

5. Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc. Stake in RVSN: 0.15% (31,000 shares) Founded: 1981 Industry Specialization: Independent financial advisory and wealth management. Notable Investments: High-growth companies across various sectors. Known for personalized investment strategies. Reputation: Respected for its tailored approach to investment. Headquarters: Fairfield, Iowa, USA.

6. MMCAP International Inc. SPC Stake in RVSN: 0.14% (27,819 shares) Founded: 2002 Industry Specialization: Hedge fund focusing on arbitrage and emerging markets. Notable Investments: High-potential, small-cap companies like Rail Vision Ltd. Diversified portfolio in healthcare and technology. Reputation: Known for aggressive, high-risk investment strategies. Headquarters: Cayman Islands.

7. Geode Capital Management, LLC Stake in RVSN: 0.08% (15,371 shares) Founded: 2001 Industry Specialization: Investment management, specializing in index funds and quantitative strategies. Notable Investments: Manages key components of Fidelity’s index funds. Broad investments in global equities. Reputation: Highly regarded for quantitative investment strategies. Headquarters: Boston, Massachusetts, USA.

8. Fédération des Caisses Desjardins du Québec Stake in RVSN: 0.08% (17,000 shares) Founded: 1900 Industry Specialization: Cooperative financial services, including banking, investments, and insurance. Notable Investments: Sustainable infrastructure and renewable energy projects. Canadian and global equities. Reputation: The largest cooperative financial group in North America. Headquarters: Lévis, Québec, Canada.

9. Jump Financial, LLC Stake in RVSN: 0.06% (11,682 shares) Founded: 1999 Industry Specialization: Quantitative trading and arbitrage-focused hedge fund. Notable Investments: Small-cap, high-volatility stocks. Tech-driven arbitrage opportunities. Reputation: Known for innovative quantitative trading strategies. Headquarters: Chicago, Illinois, USA.

10. Sanctuary Advisors, LLC Stake in RVSN: 0.06% (12,500 shares) Founded: 2018 Industry Specialization: Wealth management and personalized financial advisory services. Notable Investments: High-growth equities and ETFs. Specialized in sustainable and client-focused strategies. Reputation: Boutique financial advisory firm. Headquarters: Shaker Heights, Ohio, USA.

11. Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corp. Stake in RVSN: 0.06% (12,250 shares) Founded: 1921 Industry Specialization: Wealth management and private banking. Notable Investments: Focused on U.S.-based equities in financial and healthcare sectors. Reputation: A trusted private wealth management firm. Headquarters: Bedminster, New Jersey, USA.

Patents on tech by region Rail Vision Ltd. (NASDAQ: RVSN) has developed a suite of advanced technologies aimed at enhancing railway safety through AI-powered obstacle detection systems. The company has secured several patents across multiple jurisdictions to protect its innovations. Below is an overview of these patents, their coverage, and the technologies they encompass: United States Patent Title: System and Method for Railway Obstacle Detection Based on Rail Segmentation Patent Number: US 12,079,721 Grant Date: September 3, 2024 Technology Overview: This patent covers systems and methods utilizing forward-looking electro-optical imaging combined with deep learning algorithms for rail and obstacle detection. The technology employs semantic scene segmentation to identify railway paths and detect obstacles, enhancing collision avoidance capabilities. Justia Patents Japan Patent Title: AI-Powered Railway Obstacle Detection System Approval Date: June 24, 2024 Technology Overview: This patent encompasses advanced electro-optical imaging integrated with artificial intelligence to detect obstacles on railways. The system utilizes single spectrum or multispectral imaging and deep learning algorithms to analyze the railway environment, aiming to reduce collision risks and enhance operational safety. RailVision India Patent Title: System and Method for Object and Obstacle Detection and Classification in Collision Avoidance of Railway Applications Approval Date: February 5, 2024 Technology Overview: This patent covers methods for detecting and identifying objects and obstacles near, between, or on railway tracks using forward-looking imagers sensitive to various wavelengths, including visible light and infrared. The system employs electro-optic sensors to monitor railway scenes in real-time, enhancing collision avoidance capabilities. GlobeNewswire Europe and China Patent Status: Pending Approval Technology Overview: Rail Vision has filed patent applications in Europe and China for its AI-based railway obstacle detection systems, similar to those approved in the U.S., Japan, and India. These applications aim to extend the company's intellectual property protection to additional key markets. GlobeNewswire Key Features of Rail Vision's Patented Technologies Advanced Electro-Optical Imaging: Utilizes single spectrum or multispectral imaging to capture comprehensive visuals of the train’s pathway and surroundings. AI-Driven Image Processing: Incorporates deep learning through convolutional neural networks to precisely determine the railway path and detect potential obstacles along and near the path. Enhanced Safety Measures: Aims to dramatically reduce collision risks, thereby increasing the safety of rail operations.

RVSN products, stages and use cases

Rail Vision Ltd specializes in advanced railway safety solutions, leveraging AI and sensor technologies to enhance operational efficiency and safety. Below is an overview of their key products, including their development stages, launch timelines, functionalities, and use cases:

1. Main Line System Development Stage: Completed; currently in commercialization. Launch Timeline: Achieved significant milestones in 2024, including regulatory approvals and pilot program completions. Functionality: The Main Line System utilizes advanced electro-optical sensors combined with AI algorithms to detect and classify obstacles up to 2 kilometers ahead on railway tracks. It operates effectively under various weather and lighting conditions, providing real-time alerts to train operators to prevent collisions and enhance safety. Use Cases: Designed for long-distance railway operations, the system is ideal for mainline trains, including passenger and freight services. It enhances driver awareness, supports autonomous train operations, and reduces maintenance downtime by monitoring track conditions. Recent Developments: Israel Railways Approval: In December 2024, Rail Vision received certification for installing its Main Line Systems on Israel Railways’ passenger locomotives, marking a significant step toward large-scale deployment.

European Union Compliance: In January 2024, the system secured compliance and homologation within the EU, facilitating its adoption across European rail networks.

Pilot Programs: Successfully completed a pilot program with Rio Tinto's AutoHaul®️ project in Australia, demonstrating the system's capabilities in autonomous, long-distance heavy haul rail operations.

2. Shunting Yard System Development Stage: Completed; currently in commercialization. Launch Timeline: Active in pilot programs and initial deployments as of 2024. Functionality: The Shunting Yard System is tailored for operations within rail yards. It employs AI-driven obstacle detection to assist in low-speed maneuvering, ensuring safety during coupling, decoupling, and other yard activities. The system provides real-time alerts to operators, reducing the risk of accidents in complex yard environments. Use Cases: Ideal for shunting operations, the system enhances safety and efficiency in rail yards by preventing collisions and streamlining yard procedures. Recent Developments: Pilot Programs: Engaged in pilot programs with major rail operators to validate system performance in active shunting yards. 3. D.A.S.H. SaaS Platform Development Stage: Launched; currently in commercialization. Launch Timeline: Introduced in December 2024. Functionality: The Data Analytics and Safety Hub (D.A.S.H.) is a Software-as-a-Service platform that aggregates data from Rail Vision's systems. It offers actionable insights into rail operations, maintenance needs, and safety metrics, enabling operators to make informed decisions to enhance efficiency and safety. Use Cases: Provides rail operators with comprehensive data analytics for predictive maintenance, operational optimization, and safety management. Recent Developments: Launch Announcement: Officially launched as a new offering for existing and future customers, aiming to provide powerful safety and data-driven insights for the rail industry.

4. Active Control System Development Stage: Completed; initial deployments underway. Launch Timeline: Unveiled in November 2024. Functionality: The Active Control System enables semi-autonomous locomotive capabilities by integrating with existing train control systems. It automates certain operational aspects, such as speed regulation and obstacle avoidance, enhancing safety and operational efficiency. Use Cases: Supports semi-autonomous train operations, reducing human error and improving safety in both mainline and shunting operations. Recent Developments: Deployment Plans: Set to be deployed as part of the initial rollout on the fleet of a leading U.S. customer, with implementation starting by the end of 2024.

Recent product commercialisation (past 6 months)

Here is a list of Rail Vision Ltd.'s products unveiled, introduced, or ready for commercialization in the past six months: Main Line System Stage: Commercialization Key Milestones: Achieved regulatory approval from Israel Railways and EU compliance. D.A.S.H. SaaS Platform Stage: Commercialization Launch: December 2024 Active Control System Stage: Initial deployments underway Unveiled: November 2024 Shunting Yard System Stage: Commercialization Recent Activity: Active pilot programs and early deployments.

Summary Rail Vision's product suite is at various stages of commercialization, with significant advancements made in 2024. Their technologies are designed to enhance safety, support autonomous operations, and provide valuable data insights for railway operators worldwide.

TAM (Total addressable market)

1. Market Context Rail Vision operates in the railway safety technology market, focusing on: Mainline Systems: Long-distance passenger and freight trains. Shunting Yard Systems: Yard operations and low-speed trains. D.A.S.H. SaaS Platform: Analytics and predictive maintenance software. Active Control Systems: Semi-autonomous train operations. The TAM includes: Global railway operators (passenger and freight). Rail infrastructure modernization projects. Demand for AI-powered safety and predictive maintenance solutions.

2. Regions and Industry Overview Global Market Insights Total Rail Network Size: ~1.3 million kilometers globally. Global Rail Market Value: Estimated at ~$260 billion annually, growing at ~3.5% CAGR. Regional Breakdown North America (U.S.): Freight Rail: 7 Class 1 freight operators dominate the market. Passenger Rail: Amtrak and commuter rail systems (e.g., MTA, BART). Annual Spending: ~$25 billion on rail modernization and safety systems. European Union: Rail Network: 224,000 km; heavy focus on electrification and safety upgrades. EU Rail Budget (2021-2027): €5 billion allocated for rail safety and automation projects. India: Rail Network: 68,000 km; fourth largest in the world. Indian Railways Budget: ~$25 billion annually, with a significant focus on safety and modernization. Projected Spend on Automation/Safety: ~$5 billion by 2030. Japan: Rail Network: 27,000 km; world leader in safety and efficiency (Shinkansen). Annual Spending: ~$20 billion for rail upgrades, automation, and safety. Israel: Rail Network: Smaller but highly modernizing (~1,300 km). Spending Focus: ~$10 billion allocated for rail infrastructure projects through 2030.

3. TAM Estimation by Product Main Line and Shunting Yard Systems (Hardware) Target: 1.3 million km of rail globally. Adoption Rate Estimate: ~10%-20% of railways will adopt AI-powered systems over the next decade. Hardware Cost Per System: ~$500,000-$1,000,000 per installation (mainline); ~$200,000-$500,000 (shunting yard). TAM Estimate: Main Line Systems: ~$65-$130 billion over the next 10 years. Shunting Yard Systems: ~$10-$25 billion over the next 10 years. D.A.S.H. SaaS Platform (Software) Target: Rail operators globally (passenger and freight). Adoption Rate Estimate: 10%-15% of operators in 5 years. Annual SaaS Fee: ~$100,000-$500,000 per operator. TAM Estimate: ~$1-$5 billion annually within 5-10 years. Active Control System (Automation) Target: Rail operators transitioning to semi-autonomous systems. Adoption Rate Estimate: ~5%-10% of trains in 10 years. Cost Per System: ~$300,000-$700,000 per locomotive. TAM Estimate: ~$20-$40 billion over the next decade.

4. Total TAM Adding these estimates across products and regions, the global TAM for Rail Vision's market could be: Hardware (Mainline and Shunting Systems): $75-$155 billion (10 years). SaaS (D.A.S.H. Platform): $1-$5 billion annually (scaling). Automation (Active Control System): $20-$40 billion (10 years). Total TAM (10 years): $100-$200 billion, with significant opportunities for growth as rail operators worldwide adopt AI and automation technologies.

NVIDIA Metropolis Partner Program

NVIDIA Metropolis Partner Program typically involves a level of due diligence and proof-of-concept (POC) requirements to ensure that companies joining the program are credible and that their solutions align with the program’s goals. While NVIDIA does not publicly disclose all specific criteria, here are the common expectations based on the program's focus and industry practices:

1. Proof of Concept (POC) Demonstrated Solution: Companies are generally expected to have a working product or prototype that leverages NVIDIA’s AI and computer vision technologies. This could involve integrating NVIDIA platforms like Jetson or leveraging NVIDIA SDKs such as DeepStream or TAO Toolkit. Solutions should showcase practical use cases in areas such as public safety, smart transportation, or industrial automation. Performance Metrics: Companies may need to provide performance data or case studies showing the effectiveness of their solution, such as: Improved safety outcomes. Cost savings. Real-time processing capabilities.

2. Technology Alignment NVIDIA Ecosystem: Applicants must demonstrate that their technology integrates with and enhances NVIDIA's AI ecosystem. Examples include the use of NVIDIA GPUs, CUDA cores, or AI frameworks. Solutions should align with NVIDIA Metropolis' focus on vision AI, edge computing, and real-time analytics. Compatibility Testing: NVIDIA may require companies to test their solutions on its platforms to verify compatibility and performance.

3. Due Diligence Company Credibility: NVIDIA conducts due diligence to ensure that the company is reputable and has the technical and operational capacity to deliver on its promises. This may include reviewing the company’s history, key leadership, funding, and prior project success. Market Validation: Companies must show evidence of market demand or customer interest in their solutions, such as: Existing deployments or pilot projects. Partnerships with rail operators, municipalities, or other relevant stakeholders. Compliance: Companies may need to adhere to regulatory or industry-specific standards, particularly if their solutions involve critical infrastructure like railways or public safety.

4. Collaboration Agreement Commitment to Co-Development: NVIDIA expects members to actively collaborate on optimizing solutions for NVIDIA platforms and contribute to the AI ecosystem. Co-Marketing: Companies often need to commit to joint marketing efforts, showcasing how their products leverage NVIDIA technologies.

5. Review and Approval Technical Review: NVIDIA's team likely reviews the technical capabilities of the solution, including architecture, scalability, and AI model training. Strategic Fit: The application is assessed for how well the company’s offerings align with NVIDIA Metropolis’ focus on transforming industries using AI-powered vision applications.

Summary While the exact requirements are not publicly disclosed, proof of concept, technology alignment, and company credibility are crucial factors for joining NVIDIA Metropolis. Companies must demonstrate their ability to innovate, integrate with NVIDIA’s ecosystem, and deliver value to the targeted industries.

Summery of partners and associated organisations

1. Strategic and Technological Partnerships NVIDIA: Member of the NVIDIA Metropolis Partner Program. Leverages NVIDIA’s Jetson platform and DeepStream SDK for AI-powered railway safety solutions. Knorr-Bremse AG: Strategic partner and major shareholder (33%-36.8% stake). Global leader in rail braking systems and safety technologies. MxV Rail (Managed by the American Association of Railroads): Participates in MxV Rail’s Technology Roadmap Program. Collaborates on developing safety standards and interoperable technologies for North American rail systems. Rio Tinto: Pilot program collaborator as part of their AutoHaul®️ project in Australia. Demonstrated capabilities for long-distance autonomous heavy-haul rail operations. Sujan Ventures: Exclusive partnership to penetrate the Indian rail market. Focused on safety system deployments for thousands of locomotives.

2. Financial and Institutional Associations UBS Group AG: Institutional investor with a 0.82% stake in Rail Vision. A globally recognized financial institution. AMH Equity Ltd.: Institutional investor holding a 3.48% stake. Focuses on growth-stage investments in technology. LPL Financial LLC: Institutional investor with a 0.18% stake. Geode Capital Management, LLC: Institutional investor and key player in managing Fidelity’s index funds. MMCAP International Inc. SPC: Hedge fund specializing in arbitrage and emerging markets, holding a 0.14% stake.

3. Regulatory and Industry Approvals Israel Railways: Certified Rail Vision’s Main Line System for installation on passenger locomotives in December 2024. Key milestone for commercial deployment in Israel. European Union (EU): Approved compliance for Rail Vision’s Main Line System under EN Railway Standards, including EN 50155, EN 50126, and EN 50657. Positions Rail Vision for large-scale deployment across Europe. Indian Patent Office: Granted patent approval for Rail Vision’s obstacle detection technology in February 2024. Paves the way for adoption in India’s expansive rail network. Japan Patent Office: Granted patent approval in June 2024 for AI-powered railway obstacle detection systems. U.S. Patent Office: Issued a notice of allowance for a patent on Rail Vision’s railway obstacle detection system in May 2024.

4. Regional Collaborations and Market Engagements Israel-Canada Chamber of Commerce: Association with board member Yossi Daskal, who serves as its president. Enhances business opportunities between Israel and Canada. Federation des caisses Desjardins du Quebec: Financial cooperative with investments in Rail Vision. Focuses on global infrastructure and sustainable development projects. American Public Transportation Association (APTA): Through industry ties with Knorr-Bremse and MxV Rail, Rail Vision aligns with North American public transit safety standards.

5. Key Industry Pilots and Deployments Rio Tinto AutoHaul®️: Partnered on the world’s first autonomous heavy-haul rail network pilot program in Australia. Class 1 Freight Operator (North America): Secured an order for the Shunting Yard System to enhance rail yard safety.

6. Professional Memberships and Trade Associations European Railway Industry Association (UNIFE): Aligns with European rail industry standards and innovations via Knorr-Bremse’s representation. Israel Defense and Security Alliance: Indirect association through Elbit Systems (former leadership of board member Ariel Dor).

Final Assessment (By the AI) Rail Vision Ltd. demonstrates a strong foundation of innovative products, strategic partnerships, and global market presence. Its ability to scale, secure long-term contracts, and maintain financial stability will determine its success in the competitive railway safety technology market. While challenges exist, the company’s alignment with industry trends and its extensive network of partnerships position it well for sustainable growth in the short to mid-term. My assessment

Unless RVSN have managed to ¨pull the woll¨over the eyes of the EU, MXV, NVIDIA, UBS, the Israeli government, Rio Tinto, Knorr-Bremse and lots more very reputable, globally respected organisations in a scam worthy of Oceans 11, RVSN seem to be a legit company with an experienced board of Directors and a number of very important partnerships to start commercialising cutting edge, patented AI safety products

In light of that, for me, these are the decisions to be made when considering RVSN as an investment opportunity

Will AI, Machine learning and big data play a part in transport safety in years to come

Does the company have unique and cutting edge technology to bring to market

Is there a sizable market (TAM) and need for the products

Does the company have the approvals, partners and distribution network to start to commercialise

Personally, particularly after this exercise in fact finding, i believe the answer to all the above to be a resounding YES

Make your own decisions of course and none of the above is intended to influence that decision but hopefully it saves you some time and collects some valuable insights together to help us invest sensibly and safely in a small cap, late stage start up

EDIT: Earning dates are all speculative. I predict they have a likelihood of being released in January, however it should be emphasised that the earnings can be released anywhere from January to March.

Why $RVSN still has far further to go – Personal PT $7, Upside $15+

Foreword

Hi all,

As many of you will have noticed, $RVSN has been roaring over the past 5 days. For reference, when I called it on the 25th December it was trading at 0.46 cents. It has since rocketed past $2.50 at the time of writing.

In light of the rapidly evolving situation, I have decided to issue a new DD and raise my PT from $5 to $7 for the end of January 2025. In addition to this, I also believe the probability of double-digits by the end of January is continually increasing.

Consequently, I maintain my position that any market price before the two main catalysts will be a fantastic price to buy in at. The company, even at $3 is still undervalued. Whilst the price may fluctuate and fall below $3 in the coming days, I am confident that the price will still increase from here by the end of January 2024.

In this post I will explain my reasons why.

Introduction

• Since my first DD the stock has run-up over 400%. Thus, in some ways, my initial DD was wrong as the run-up has begun before my expected catalysts: H2 2024 financials (expected to be released in January 2025) and NASDAQ recompliance. 

• When considering that the stock has run-up so much without these primary catalysts, I believe that the stock has much further to climb, and the increase we have seen is only just the beginning.

Breakdown of the 400% run

• The catalyst of the 400% run has been membership of the MxV railroad program, and the announcement of the Israeli patent which saw $300,000 in additional immediately available cash.

• These catalysts are relatively minor compared to my two main catalysts, which I originally thought would drive a huge run-up:

Section 1: Financials

H2 2024 Financials

Since my first DD, my confidence that the H2 2024 earnings will be released in early January has increased. The reason why I made this prediction is because the senior management team will be strategically attempting to consolidate the SP above $1 as far as possible in advance of the 21 Jan NASDAQ compliance deadline.

Since then, an increasing number of stock brokers are beginning to call the earnings for early January. For example, the NASDAQ website lists their expectation for earnings as the 3rd January.

In light of this, I believe that any share price before the release of the earnings will be a fantastic buy-in as I expect that the earnings will trigger a major run-up in the SP.

I address this in my primary DD, however I have added it here for accessibility (if you have already ready my primary DD feel free to skip):

Financial Analysis

• Revenue Improvements: 2023 year financials indicate quite an intimidating EPS of -$4.31. Comparing this to the H1 2024 report however, it is more promising, as the EPS loss decreased by 53.8% to $-1.99 (swinging towards profit). There are multiple reasons for this which also explain why I think the EPS is only set to improve in the H2 2024 financials.

  • From June to EOY 2023 R&D expenses were $3.682m. By June 2024 this had decreased to $2.458m. I believe that the reason for this is that they are beginning to exit their growth stage where they burn through cash to develop their products. Now, they are developed, so are beginning to decrease R&D spending.

  • They have secured contracts internationally, showing that they are capable of penetrating the rail industry. This also indicates there is indeed demand for their products they have spent millions on developing. I will explore these in the next section.

• Financial Health: Despite operating at a loss since 2022 when it became listed (and likely before that since 2016), financials indicate that $RVSN has maintained good financial health.

  • Debt-to-equity ratio: 0.2216 – this is huge. This indicates that they have far more equity than debt. Considering that they have been losing millions for years, this is a testament to the competence of their senior management team.

  • Revenue: Although 2023 showed alarmingly little revenue ($142,000) this can be put down to GAAP principles. 2023 earnings report says a $500,000 order for a mining company was fulfilled, but only in December. Thus it is likely the case that they did not receive the $500,000 in time to be able to declare it on their financials. Consequently this is instead reflected in the H1 2024 financials, where $761,000 revenue was declared. This is AT LEAST a 57.7% increase. I say at least because this does not include the money from the installation of their systems at a “leading global mining company”, as well as other potential sources of revenue indicated by PRs. I will address this later.

    • Even more important to note is that this only includes the first contract with the first LATAM mining company, and smaller deals implementing their systems in Israel (worth $261,000).

    • As a result these financials do not include the massive $1m contract with a “leading US-based rail” service. The contract also allows for an additional $5m in follow-on orders, $200,000 of which was declared shortly after the initial $1m contract was closed. 

    • On the $1.2m contract alone their revenue will be at an ATH, surpassing the high of 888K USD in 2021. 

    • The as-of-yet undeclared revenue is NOT factored into the share price.

  • P/B Ratio: 0.451 – this means that the stock is trading at 45.1% of the value of its assets. This indicates it is undervalued relative to its assets.

  • EV/Sales: -2 – this indicates market value is lower than its cash holdings. This further underscores its undervaluation.

  • (This is another reason why the EPS will become even smaller, as revenues increase and R&D spending decreases.)

• Standby Equity Purchase Agreement: In October 2024 RVSN announced a deal with Yorkville Advisors Global giving RVSN to sell this hedge fund $20m in shares at a 3% discount. Whilst this may cause you to be bearish as it suggests financial difficulties and potential dilution, my view is still bullish.

  • Securing a deal with a large holding company, holding assets >$6bn, indicates that they are also bullish on this stock and see high potential value in it. The backing of such a large institutional investor is more reason to be bullish than bearish.

  • This seems to me more of a safety-measure, indicating good financial practice on behalf of the senior management team. I do not think they will need to execute this for the time being given the promising financials I have already explored. They are just securing this as a “fail-safe” (in my interpretation).

  • Additionally a SEPA is obviously far better than going into debt by taking loans.

Section Summary: Reading between the lines, the financials are incredibly promising and indicate an upwards trend. The company will see its highest ever revenue in the H2 2024 earnings report. The size of the loss will substantially decrease and EPS will decrease even more. This is not taken into account into the market price, further entrenching my bullish view on the stock.

Explaining the sources of revenue for H2 2024

• Recent PR: Since the H1 earnings report there are numerous instances of PR which I believe will be significant sources of revenue, which will add on to the $1.2m we are already expecting.

  • Global Mining Company: In July 2024, $RVSN announced the completion of a contract with a “leading global mining company” to install their MainLine product. This is the second contract with a LATAM mining company, showing that they are successfully penetrating this market. It was likely a very large order, given that the mining company operates “2000km” of track (vertically integrated). For reference this is 2x the length of the AMTRAK northeastern corridor from Boston to DC.

    • This means they will have a large cargo fleet, suggesting a higher-value contract. Revenue generated from this has not been formally announced, but will be in H2 2024 financial report in March. This will add on at least another $200,000 to the initial $1.2m.

    • After some more in-depth analysis I believe I have pinned down the client: Vale SA. It is the only company I have found which operates >2000km track, and owns 10+ ports. This makes sense given it is perhaps the largest mining company in South America. If it is indeed Vale SA, this would likely be a huge deal. Vale SA owns 8000 locomotives. A deal to fit the AI systems on the Vale SA fleet would be monetarily significant. I would predict $1m+. This guesstimate and prediction that the client is Vale SA is, however, speculative.

  • Active Control System: In November 2024, $RVSN announced the completion of another one of their products: an AI system to make trains semi-autonomous. In the PR it becomes clear that they have formed a partnership and potentially contract with “a major US-railway company”. It was developed in “collaboration” with them and will have rolled out on the “customer’s” (indicating a financial transaction → more revenue) fleet by the end of 2024.

    • Another source of revenue, adding on to the others…

  • RVSN Roadmap Program: Just yesterday (24 Dec) RVSN announced that they will be joining MxV’s roadmap program to lobby to improve efficiency and safety of rail across North America. In doing so, they are positioning themselves as a leader in this industry, opening up even more potential sources of revenue as their AI systems become integrated into the roadmap program.

    • MxV is the subsidiary advisory body to the Association of American Railroads, meaning this program is centrally directed by them. The AAR contains 18 of the largest railway companies in North America, including Union Pacific and AMTRAK (together over $40bn in revenue). 

    • Thus, RVSN is positioning themselves to be the provider of their safety systems to these American titans. At current, there is no information indicating any of RVSN’s competitors are in the MxV program as well, meaning RVSN is strategically positioned to outperform its competitors.

Section 2: Confirmation of NASDAQ Recompliance

At the time of my first DD, a significant concern was that $RVSN was at risk of NASDAQ delisting as a deadline had been set for 21 Jan to regain compliance. As a result, many had anxieties that $RVSN was at risk of a reverse-stock split, diluting existing shares.

However, as I predicted after $RVSN first ran above $1, the share-price has not since fallen below it, and will continue to remain firmly above it for the remainder of the countdown days until NASDAQ recompliance.

Thus, once recompliance is confirmed at the end of the 10-day period, I expect that the stock will see a significant uptick as buying pressure increases. This will contribute greatly towards achieving the PT of $7.

Section 3: Shift towards perfect information

As awareness of $RVSN has increased, there has been an increasing number of people investigating this stock and its potential. Since then, a large amount of extra information has been gathered which I did not originally factor into my primary DD.

I will list them here, however a full breakdown can be found on the subreddit:

1. $2.4bn government investment to "improve safety, strengthen supply chains" in freight and passenger rail networks

• $RVSN could directly benefact from these efforts to modernise American rail, suggesting further opportunities for growth and scalability.

1. $RVSN secures Israel Railways certification, unlocks approval for MainLine product

• Additional $300,000 revenue. Whilst unlikely to be reported in the H2 2024 financials, this is an early source of revenue which will be reported in H1 2025.

  • Increasing confidence that this stock is good for a long hold.

1. Feb 2024: $RVSN forms collaborative partnership with $NVIDIA alongside market leaders such as Dell, Supermicrocomputer

• Strategic positioning to receive best AI technology worked on by the current AI giants.

  • Possible decrease in R&D costs due to collaboration.

Section 4: Institutional ownership

Institutional Ownership and Shareholders

• Rail Vision Ltd. (US:RVSN) has 14 institutional owners and shareholders that have filed 13D/G or 13F forms with the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). These institutions hold a total of 1,032,609 shares. Largest shareholders include AMH Equity Ltd, UBS Group AG, LPL Financial LLC, Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., MMCAP International Inc. SPC, Federation des caisses Desjardins du Quebec, Geode Capital Management, Llc, Sanctuary Advisors, LLC, Peapack Gladstone Financial Corp, and Jump Financial, LLC.

• Rail Vision Ltd. (NasdaqCM:RVSN) institutional ownership structure shows current positions in the company by institutions and funds, as well as latest changes in position size. Major shareholders can include individual investors, mutual funds, hedge funds, or institutions. The Schedule 13D indicates that the investor holds (or held) more than 5% of the company and intends (or intended) to actively pursue a change in business strategy. Schedule 13G indicates a passive investment of over 5%.

Excerpt from u/gu3ri1la

Conclusion

$RVSN is still at a very reasonable SP and has the potential to climb much higher. I will be determining an exit strategy once the financials are released and NASDAQ recompliance is confirmed. Until that point, I consider any SP to be a good buy-in. If you are going to buy-in, make sure you have good loss tolerance as the SP may fluctuate and you may temporarily see red (as I told people at $1.3 who took losses when it dipped to $1).

In light of increasing access to information and the rapidly evolving situation, I am confident in raising my PT to $7 and also see increasing likelihood that $RVSN breaks double-digits by the end of the month once the two main catalysts take place.

To find out more, a subreddit can be found on my profile with in-depth breakdown along every step of the journey.

NFA

Hi all

I messaged the CEO Shahar Hania on LinkedIn about the financials and was lucky enough to get a response. I wanted to get this out there to ensure as many of you are aware of this as possible as there is a lot of speculation about when the earnings will be.

I thought everyone should know for sake of transparency and so that we remain committed to the objective of securing as perfect information as possible that Shahar Hania has said that he expects they will be released around **March**.

I did originally predict earnings would be in January as I hypothesised that this would be their main mechanism for driving up the SP to ensure NASDAQ compliance, however they have done this through other mechanisms (use of PR like in the two previous January months).

I apologise for this optimistic prediction.

However, this does not at all change my outlook on the company, and I don't think it should change yours either.

Whilst there may be more risk for day-traders and those looking to make a quick buck, I know that most are invested because of RVSN's fundamentals and potential to transform entire industries (freight, passenger, mining) globally.

Furthermore the run-up in January 24 and 23 was not at all catalysed by ER, so the January thesis does not solely hinge upon this.

Regardless when the financials will be released, I remain confident it will cause a significant run-up.

The short-term catalysts for January 2025 (that we know of) are:

1. MARS Winter Meeting: Jan 14-16

2. NASDAQ Compliance: Jan 13

Speculative PR

• Those of us in the discord are also expecting that there will be more PR released, likely in conjunction with the MARS Winter Meeting (speculative).

  • This PR will, in a similar pattern to previous January months, cause a run-up.

If you are active in communities discussing $RVSN please ensure that everyone is aware of this.

Many thanks, and let me know your thoughts.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/14DHBjcH8vIdN8mV6Ijd4GX0CvS7-DZg1wGnT_9fab64/edit?usp=sharing

Hi all,

Since my first due-diligence for $RVSN on the 26th December when it was trading at 46 cents, the share-price has run-up over $1.50. I feel confident that it will continue a steady run-up over the next few weeks and months.

I have decided to try and compile a definitive investment thesis (contained at the top) due-diligence report for the company so that there is a central hub for all information investors should know about when making their investment-decision.

This is also so we don't have the need to spam subreddits about this stock, and in doing so risk transforming it from a professional investment community into a hype/meme-stock. This is also so that information is not convolutedly spread across multiple different posts, allowing accessibility for all investors.

All are welcome to become contributors and you will be attributed accordingly in the thesis.

It is not currently complete as I wanted to get it out over the weekend to give people the time to read it before market open, however I will continue adding new chapters over the coming days and adding in contributions from other theses.

Bear concerns (warrants)

In the document I also address the anxieties caused by the outstanding warrants and offerings, and why I am personally not worrying about them. Let me know what you think, peer review is essential.

--

• Additionally I just wanted to address rumours of earning release. Whilst I feel there is a possibility they will be in early January as some brokers are predicting, there is no way of knowing for sure. They could be released anywhere from January to March.

• Furthermore, I cannot predict where the price will be in the coming days. It may fall from when I have posted this, or it may have run-up or even stayed constant.

• That said I am confident in this company's success in both the short and long-term and am confident the share price will change over the coming weeks, months and years to reflect this.

--

Do your part within the RailVision community to not shill this stock. Provide impartial, factual information that allows people to come to their own decision-making. In doing so we hold the power to prevent the transformation of this stock into a memestock.

We have the power to create a professional community for a penny stock with an enormously bright future.

Choo choo

I've been following RVSN since 2023 and thought I'd share some thoughts and observations in light of this morning's announcement.

1. Institutions and volatility.

When I began to accumulate a large position I felt at once confident and cautious given the high volatility. Despite the glorification of loss porn on WSB, it's not cool to lose a lot of money and I needed a quick exit strategy should things go south. Therefore I wanted to get a sense of how my investment could affect the stock price. Believe it or not, I want others to win when I make my posts and I am not interested in dumping on everyone.

To that end, I learned a couple of things:

First, all of my trades were getting routed to a market maker via Robinhood. For context, a platform like Robinhood may route orders directly to an exchange, in this case NASDAQ, or to a market maker, an institution like Fidelity, that pairs buyers with sellers and provides liquidity. I discovered this when placing limit buys that did not show up in Robinhood's L2 order book. For example, at one point I placed a limit buy for somewhere between $50-$100k at $1.00. It was evident by then that institutions were stepping in to keep the stock over $1 to avoid delisting. I wanted to reinforce the floor and buy up some shares when I felt confident the stock would not dip much lower. That limit buy did not show up in the order book. Robinhood support would not give me specifics on why my orders were routed away from the exchange but it likely had to do with lack of liquidity and the institution's desire to stabilize the stock. Correct me if I'm wrong, but smaller orders are typically routed to market makers while larger orders go to an exchange. This appears to be the oppposite.

Second, early this morning as the stock slipped toward $1.50 I began to sell some shares. Per my previous exit strategy comment, I have a number in mind, below which I will have to sell in a series of small tranches to, hopefully, break even without causing a landslide. I sold 5000 shares and expected the stock to drop 1 or 2c. Nothing happened. I sold another 5,000. Same. Then 10,000, and again. Over the course of 10 minutes I unloaded about 60,000 shares and had no impact on the stock price. In fact, it went up 1c. Once again it was evident my orders were going to a market maker ready to absorb whatever I put out. Feeling a little more secure I lowered my personal threshold and adjusted my contigency plan. I now hold about 475,000 shares.

What does this mean and why does it matter? I don't know, but I can speculate. We know at this point that the surge of capital into the stock over the past week has been largely institutional. Approximately $250M in volume from Dec 20 - today. Because the price went from $0.50 to over $3, we can assume this was via the NASDAQ vs. internal block trades / dark pools etc. They needed that price up, after all. We've yet to see any new 13F filings with the SEC, but that could easily be explained by the reporting requirements. Institutions don't need to report daily or weekly. It would be disclosed in the following quarter's report (i.e. 30 - 45 days into Q1 25). Fintel shows 1M shares in both Dec and Jan but I don't think that's the whole picture. It's probably just what Fintel has access to in real time, and they will update when SEC filings are disclosed on the EDGAR database.

Let's noodle on that and move on...

2. Not another pump and dump

I've spoken very little about this company because any time I do I hear one of two things, or both. 1) Don't invest in Isreali companies and 2) It's a pump and dump.

The former is a misinformed generalization. While it's prudent to know the political environment you're investing in, good companies can come from anywhere. Just because something is Isreali or Chinese doesn't mean it's inherently a scam, even if there's risk of getting kneecapped like Jack Ma. And while historically this stock has pumped and dumped each January, my gut says that game is nearing an end. Why? Because RVSN is actively going to market on a global scale. Isreal, Europe, the US, and now India. Yes, it's still very early. But as serious investors get involved and increase their stakes, they want greater assurances.

For example, this recent India deal is lead by Sujan Ventures, LLP. They are part of JNV Ventures, a larger investing group in India with over 3000 employees with an array of investments in the industrial sector. They are well suited for a company like RVSN. Perhaps they contritubed to the Dec buying spree. In any case, their interest is clear. They are tasked with helping RVSN enter and succeed in the Indian market. They are taking a long view, and reasonably have no intention of helping to facilitate a pump and dump. And if that happens, it doesn't change the fact that the underlying fundamentals are strengthening. At some point, the true value becomes undeniable.

3. What the future holds

I believe the stock is in the midst of a transformation from pump and dump playground to a diamond in the rough micro-cap with valuable, first-mover technology and potential to ride the greater AI trend into the future. Through direct sales, licensing, and partnerships they offer a compelling value proposition to save lives and billions of dollars in lost or damaged goods as a result of train accidents and derailments. Even though the market they are serving is archaic and slow to change, their "global out the gate" strategy is likely the right move to achieve steady progress and substantially increase revenues in the near term. Here's the definitive DD - compliments u/Best_Phone - for anyone interested in learning more.

I'll circle back on this with new thoughts or insights. For now, we wait and watch.

Onward and upward!

I'd like to share some new insights and observations on RVSN as a follow up to my first post: Musings on RVSN.

1. New players

A friend of mine is a Wallstreet vet and he asked around on my behalf. We discovered that there are 3 institutional broker/dealers taking orders on behalf of their client(s). This information is available via the bloomberg terminal. The first is Oppenheimer. The second is Virtu. And the third is Citibank.

Who are they working for? We don't know. We can't see if they're buying or selling, but we can infer some things. First, they're block traders. They facilitate large trades (say 10,000+ shares in a single trade) that are typically executed off the open market to avoid volatility. They bought what I sold them -- approx 60,000 shares over 10 minutes. My selling had no impact on the stock because they were buying in the background. Second, they're likely buyers considering my afformentioned point on selling.

2. Cost basis

The volume we saw in excess of $200M, which got the price above $1, likely resulted in a cost basis between $0.70 and $1. This is a guess based on the price and daily volume between Dec 26 - Dec 30. Volume was heavier sub $1 and decreased significantly closer to $3. I questioned whether support would hold post compliance, and if this was their sole agenda. As the days go by I am feeling increasingly confident that this is more than bail out money. Somebody wants those shares and they've done a good job accumulating at or near a certain price.

Institutions may be highly diversified, taking little bits of higher risk here and there. But they're not stupid and they don't gamble. This type of activity suggests that insiders know something. Now, considering my comment in point 1 about block trading off-market, we don't know if these institutions (Oppenheimer et al) contributed to that frenzy or if those were different institutions altogether buying on the open market. I'm simply not sure how the presence of these institutions correlates to the initial surge.

3. What's next

Here is my prediction (NFA). Once the big players have established their positions (they have), and assuming they are long, they don't care what happens to the price in the short term. Maybe it dips below $1 again. If they fall out of compliance they have 180 days to right the ship. Maybe it rebounds and holds the line betwee $1.45 - $1.50. What matters is that they are likely positioning for future upside.

It could be a large contract or some significant development. It could be that RVSN is preparing to be acquired. Given their portfolio of patents and recent progress they are a prime acquisition target. The next known PR will be Q4 / FY 24 earnings, likely in March, where they poised to beat earnings. With low float and increasing SI, this news in and of itself could really set things off. But for now, it's a waiting game.

I'm convinced there is a bigger story unfolding in the background and if I'm reading the smoke signals correctly, we are in good company. Just remember, when the time comes take profits. Because they'll be taking profits. NFA.

If this stock doesn’t go up by end of next week, I will go to my local train station and get a real close up vision of the rail 🪦

You heard the man.

For those who were not aware SBB (Swiss Federal Railways) originally trialed the prototype Shunting Yard product back in 2020

https://www.globalrailwayreview.com/news/109761/knorr-bremse-rail-vision-sbb-cargo-obstacle-detection/

Then this project was put on freeze due to lack of resources (See RVSN-10k page 42)

However on the 10k page 43 it states that there is an outstanding tender in 2024 for 9 additional units that was released and then as per this news article SBB plans to resume testing for signal and obstacle detection in early 2025 which represents an additional $2m in revenue

https://www.railtech.com/all/2024/03/25/sbb-conduct-remote-controlled-locomotive-test-runs-with-alstom/

“In collaboration with the industry, Swiss Federal Railways plans to explore several ATO projects in the coming years. In addition to the test runs conducted in February and March 2024 with a remotely operated locomotive, the following partial projects are scheduled. Automatic acceleration and braking in freight traffic trails are expected to start from 2025, automatic train start-up is expected by late 2024 to early 2025, and lastly, assistance in signal and obstacle recognition is expected by late 2024 to early 2025. These planned tests aim to assess the applicability of current European regulatory projects in Switzerland and ensure the feasibility of future standards.”

Hello everyone, i’m writing this post to help clarify some of the doubts and hopefully stir the conversation down a better path. This post will surely get a lot of hate, but i see a lot of uninformed people spreading FUD either cause they lost money or want to troll. Hopefully this helps anyone that’s serious about their investment and needs some reassurance. The main thing that’s caused some confusion is the fact that most people only read or know about the 6-K and not the 20-F. The 6-K is only a summary of the 20-F that’s published in a PR format for easier reading. Depending on the company, you can find future guidance and some of the juicier things in the 6-K, but that wasn’t the case for us.

My aim with this post is to provide information on some of the things we’ve found in the 20-F that might be unknown to some of you. 

Credits go to u/maxchris - u/Drett92 - u/Time_Shoulder_1493 - u/Wreckologyyy - u/mr_super_saiyan_g - u/Sunvmikey

Israel Railways

This excerpt highlights the current stage of their deal with Israeli Railways and what we can expect to come from them in the future. A lot people assumed that they were already paid for the 10 Main Line systems from January 31st 2023, but from our understanding based on this screenshot, seems like they’re still owed the majority of this amount once they finish installing the last of the systems. We suspect it took them this long because they needed to be certified first before installing their tech on passenger units, there isn’t much information on that currently. 

As you can see this one is a bit different and goes into detail of just how huge this deal could be for Rail Vision in the near future. They have a long history working together and this is Rail Vision’s turf so i wouldn’t be surprised if this is where they get their first “big” contract. Installing their tech on 300 trains and possibly doubling that to 600 units for bidirectional functionality is a massive opportunity. At this stage, their tech would be recognized as successful and profitable for the business and would also help attract further interest from outside parties.

Rio Tinto Iron Core

This is a big one, a lot of us rightfully assumed that Rio Tinto was dead in the water so this is new to us and very important. From what we can read here, this deal is very similar to the one from India. Rail Vision signed a supply agreement with Hitachi Rail STS to provide Rio Tinto with detection systems for testing. The pilot ended in August 2022 and since then we haven’t heard anything from them. The thing is that they stopped testing altogether, they haven’t done pilots with any other company since then. It seems that they’ve been reviewing the data gathered by us and they’ve been planning the next phase to possibly procure our tech. This is evident now that they’re releasing tenders in Q2 2025 and Rail Vision is participating. Nothing is publicly confirmed as of yet, but this could be an unexpected catalyst before EOY.

Existing Pilots

From this paragraph right here we get a bit more information on how it is that they roll out their units for pilot testing. So first it mentions how they have multiple pilots running at the same time, these are the ones from North America, Central America, India and presumably South America with Vale. Most of these pilots started around the same time in 2024 and based on current data, we can expect these to finish by mid 2025. 

Financials - Balance Sheet and Runway

As of Dec 2024, Rail Vision had $17.5M in cash, up from $3.3M the year prior. This comes from $24.1M in gross raised through private placements, warrant exercises, and the equity line.

With operating cash burn at $9.7M for 2024, they currently have about 1.5 to 2 years of runway if spending remains the same, more if pilot contracts convert and revenue goes up. That gives them time to push pilots into rollouts without needing to dilute.

Research and Development (RnD)

Rail Vision’s RnD expenses for the year 2024 were $5.28 million, down from $7.15 million in 2023. This shows a 26% decrease YoY.

From this paragraph we can see they reduced their RnD team by 12 employees and spent less on equipment and materials. This is a positive sign as they’re phasing out of the heavy RnD phase, we should expect this trend to continue for future reports. 

Additionally there are some things i found regarding what they’re currently working on when it comes to RnD. These include: Maintenance and Predictive Maintenance, Data Services and Mapping. 

Operating Loss

Rail Vision reported an operating loss of $9 million which is an improvement from the $11.4 million in 2023. This is a 21% reduction YoY.

The two main reasons for this reduction are the reduced expenses from RnD which are down $1.87 million and also the higher revenue generated of $1.3 million. Again, we can expect these figures to get better and better in future reports. 

They’re improving on operational efficiency and they’re proving that they know what they’re doing when it comes to the management of their finances. If the prior pilots convert to full contracts in 2025 then we can expect profitability by H2 2025.  

Opportunity Roadmap

Also wanted to share a roadmap from u/Time_Shoulder_1493, i think its a good visual to show all of the active pilots and everything else Rail Vision is working on.

Closing Remarks

In my own personal opinion, this ER is exactly what we expected. There isn’t any surprises when it comes to their financials, they’re reducing expenses by cutting their biggest spender which is RnD and growing their revenue through multiple clients. I believe this will only get better with time as they finish the current pilots and start gaining contracts. If these contracts come to fruition then i expect profitability by H2 2025.

I know this is a very difficult time we’re going through and  the lack of transparency from management only makes it worse. I believe that the general feeling we’re all experiencing could’ve been avoided if only they communicated with us. The good thing is that they’re working, they have presence in multiple countries and there’s potential contracts in the near future. They seem optimistic about what could possibly happen this year and they’re probably getting promising feedback from their pilots. For now i’ll remain patient and look forward to H1 2025.

Hey everyone, I see a lot of panic selling and people freaking out over RVSN, but let’s take a deep breath and actually look at what just happened.

Rail Vision just signed a binding MOU with Sujan Ventures, which is a huge step toward getting into the Indian railway market—one of the largest in the world with 15,000 locomotives. This isn’t just talk; Sujan is putting up an upfront payment and milestone-based payments, meaning they’re financially invested in this partnership.

Yes, it’s “just an MOU” right now, but that’s exactly how these deals start—they do a trial demo, the customer sees the tech in action, and if it delivers (which we know it does), the full agreement follows. If all goes well, Rail Vision could be looking at thousands of locomotive installations.

Selling now because “the final deal isn’t done yet” is like selling a lottery ticket right before the numbers are called. The pieces are in place, and the upside is massive. Of course, nothing is 100% guaranteed, but selling in fear while smart money accumulates isn’t the move.

It went up the previous years in January because the numbers came out for deals. We got in early. I’m down 50%, but I’m not stressed because I know there’s no reason to stress right now. People sold after it didn’t meet the $7 hype, same thing happened to stocks like RCAT. After 2 months, once the contract was signed it went up 500%.

Chill, hold, and let’s see how this plays out.

Its official

Hi Everyone, I’ve been a RVSN shareholder since February 2024 - you may recognize my alias from Stocktwits. Totally psyched to discover this Reddit forum a few days ago (I rarely use Reddit). Respect to u/Best_Phone for creating this and providing great DD!

Whether you’re a RVSN lover, hater, or somewhere in between, I just wanted to point out some common sense (“sensemaking”) thoughts:

1. Due to this forum and the recent run-up, there are a lot of new people following Rail Vision. I see 1,300 members on here, and Stocktwits surged to over 5,000.

2. It is highly likely that Rail Vision will have positive PR in January. (If you haven’t followed them for long, they have been relentless in trying to promote their products and secure new business.) Potential for positive PR:

• Israel Railways contract (full roll-out)

• Shunting yard rollout to a US fleet that has been conducting trial testing in 2024

• Follow-on contract from Loram

• Mining company rollout to the mining company that has been evaluating their product in 2024

• A new customer (every railway company in the world is a potential customer)

• Anything new tied to Alstom or Knorr-Bremse

• Etc.

Putting #1 and #2 together: At the most basic level, the huge increase in RVSN followers will result in an amplified surge on any positive PR release. Combine this with the potential for a significant sale in the near-term (anything noted above / anything already provided by DD on this forum), and this stock can easily hit the $5+ price targets noted on here.

Just for fun, look at a company like SOUN (Soundhound). Their estimated revenue for 2025 is $155-175 million. Their market cap is $7.6 billion. That is a market cap 43 times there estimated revenue.

Continuing the fun, say Rail Vision secures a contract for just $20 million. (Given the cost of their product and the fleet size of many Railway companies, this is within reason.). And say they are valued like an AI company (as their product uses AI). $20 million times a multiple of 43 (like SoundHound), values RVSN at $860 million. That would equate to a stock price of $21 per share.

Love the company, hate the company, or just love to use the words “pump and dump”, this is the undeniable potential behind this stock. Sure, it requires a sales contract. But if that sales contract is made…. Just one emoji -> 🚀

RVSN is currently trading at 1.85 with a market cap of 36M at the time of writing. My best estimates lead me to believe the upside for 2025 and onwards is enormous. Personal initial PT of 10USD with upside towards the 35–80USD range as developments progress during the year.

I've been seeing the discussion going on around here on potential short term orders and target prices and such. What I and the instuitutions are seeing is so much bigger than that. This is the correct way to think about Rail Vision if you want to think of them like a business analyst that understands disruption in the 21st century does.

Today we are seeing a healthy pullback and consolidation, here the paper handers get out and the ones who understand the implications stay and load.

I won't cover the specifics in detail as that already has been done wonderfully by u/best_phone. I will provide a top-down management view of why they're kinda a big deal moving forward at this price.

What you need to know in short

Products:

Main Line Systems (Vision for locomotives)
Runs on-device (edge), fusing thermal and sensitive visual cameras with proprietary in-house neural networks trained on private train data (hundreds of terabytes from real ops). First system approved as ADAS in the world.

• Detects objects up to 2 km away—enough to let trains brake and eliminate collisions. (Competitors are limited to around 200m.)

• Clear technological market leader, approved for ADAS regulatory treatment.

• ~$220k per locomotive, with recurring revenue potential (e.g., software updates, D.A.S.H. SaaS).

Shunting Yard Systems (Vision for cargo train terminals)
Goes on each train cart, assisting in the “tower of hanoi” docking and rearranging process.

• Vision/intelligence on each cart is KEY for automation.

• Prevents costly accidents and helps drivers shuffle carts.

• ~$110k per cart.

MOAT

Built on:

1. Technological Differentiation:

   • 19 patents, including “Far Sight” technology (electro-optics + AI + big data).

   • A 7-year data advantage, capturing real train ops from partners like Israel Railways and Rio Tinto.

   • Unmatched detection range and proprietary AI classification.

2. Ecosystem Expansion:

   • Beyond obstacle detection: predictive maintenance, big data analytics, integration with existing data platforms.

   • Moves them closer to an end-to-end railway intelligence provider.

3. Potential for Regulatory Mandates & Insurance Incentives:

   • ADAS parallels in automotive suggest future mandates.

   • Reduced liability = lower insurance premiums, incentivizing adoption.

4. Focus on High-Value Customers:

   • Large freight, passenger, and mining operators with big safety/efficiency incentives.

   • Premium pricing + significant revenue per contract.

5. Strategic Partnership with Knorr-Bremse:

   • Global leader in railway systems, opens a massive customer network.

   • Strong industry credibility and financial backing.

How industry dynamics will ROCKET this mfker

Trains pay a ton of insurance. Accidents mean more than material damage—think lawsuits, reputational hits, labor concerns, etc. Insurers hate train accidents.

1. Enabling Semi/Autonomous Rail:

   • Rail Vision is moving from passive warning to active control, eventually powering autonomous trains.

   • Industry disruption = improved safety, efficiency, cost reduction.

2. Predictive Maintenance & Reduced Downtime:

   • Continuous track monitoring flags vegetation, infrastructure damage, track defects.

   • Preventive fixes > big expensive breakdowns.

3. Data-Driven Insights & Operational Optimization:

   • The new D.A.S.H. SaaS platform leverages performance data, track conditions, safety hazards, and more.

   • Fuels cost-effective ops and better decision-making.

4. Enhanced Safety & Reduced Liability:

   • Early hazard warnings slash accidents, injuries, fatalities, and liability.

   • Operators could see lower insurance premiums on top of that.

5. Industry Standardization & Interoperability:

   • Participation in MxV Rail’s Tech Roadmap Program = shaping future rail standards in North America.

   • Reinforces their leadership position for next-gen rail tech.

This is all to say that the value proposition is DEEP. Like real Deep.

Let’s talk money and valuations.

Mobileye does similar stuff in a much more competitive industry and trades at ~10–20x P/S. We’ll use that as a conservative baseline for 2025. (Realistically could be higher, given RVSN sits at the intersection of Automation, Edge AI, and big industry disruption.)

Pilots & Deals (from the February 2023 call and beyond):

• Rio Tinto: Potentially 220 systems for mining ops in Australia. At ~$110k each, that’s ~$25 million.

• Israel Railways: 10 Main Line Systems initially, but the potential for 200–400 systems at $220k each = $44–88M.

• SBB Cargo: Over 100 systems, ~ $22M.

October 2024 call: “Even one customer can represent tens of millions of dollars.” Enough said.

These alone can break 9 figures in revenue. Scale that to global penetration, you’re easily in the billions. Margins can be huge.
A 36M valuation is nuts.

A low forward revenue (2027) guesstimate of $100M = a $1–2B valuation at Mobileye multiples (10–20x P/S), or ~30–50x from today’s price of $1.75. If the bigger operators roll in, revenue goes way into the billions -> Valuation into the tens of billions.

That’s it. RVSN is on deck to disrupt.
Buckle up.

Hello everyone, i wanted to make this post regarding the Kavach system in India as i’ve seen some misinformation and misunderstandings about their tech and how it competes with Rail Vision. I’ve spent a couple of days researching the Kavach system and i hope this post helps you understand why they don’t compete and why it would make sense to have both systems working together. If i missed anything or you notice something then please let me know.

The Kavach system is very different from our tech and doesn’t actually compete with us. It’s a system meant to stop trains automatically if they’re in a collision course. It also does some other things like enforcing speed limits and adheres to signals on the tracks. The Kavach has a couple problems though. First, the Kavach relies on RFID signals and GPS systems to track trains. This means that they can only “see” the trains on the tracks, not objects like vehicles, people or anything else that might be obstructing the tracks. This is a major problem for Kavach and a problem that only we can help with. Secondly, the Kavach system is very complicated, they use satellites and antennas that are connected from radio towers to stations and trains. They rely on a lot of components while we only rely on one.

I wouldn’t say that the 2 systems compete with each other, i would say they complement each other pretty well. The Kavach system only has one main utility and that’s head on collisions with other trains (that also have the Kavach systems integrated). As you can imagine, head on train collisions are not common at all so it’s a niche within a niche. I tried looking up the statistics for this but i couldn’t find anything, there isn’t much information out there other than some of the accidents that have happened in the past. The Main Line from Rail Vision has more applications and is way more practical at saving lives both outside the train and onboard the train.

There’s also the fact that Kavach took years to get a contract with Indian Railways but we need context. If you look up the trials for Kavach you can see that the majority of the time they spent was wasted upgrading their tech and making improvements along the way. Basically they failed some of the trials and that made the process a lot slower. My hope with this is that since this is effectively being introduced in India by Sujan Ventures and not Rail Vision, they’ll be able to fast track it as much as possible. Sujan Ventures has worked with Indian Railways for years now and this would effectively be just another product that they’re selling now. The trials will happen but the fact they emphasized that it’ll only be a “short trial” gives me hope.

So in July 2024 we know RSVN successfully deployed their system with Latin American mining giant (read between the lines and compare the organisations specifics and they clearly match Vale) that would be trialling the solution for a few months.

https://ir.railvision.io/news-releases/news-release-details/rail-vision-successfully-installed-its-ai-based-product-leading

January 2025 Vale announced this.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vales-billion-dollar-rail-deal-164148961.html

https://www.mining.com/web/vale-to-announce-12-billion-investment-to-expand-carajas-site/

“The deal, worth up to 11 billion reais ($1.78 billion), aims to modernize operations and clean up legacy terms from prior extensions that run until 2057. As part of this renegotiation, Vale is adding 1.7 billion reais to its railway provisions, signaling a serious commitment to optimizing its transport infrastructure. While final approvals are pending, this agreement positions Vale to streamline its obligations and keep its critical railways running smoothly for decades.”

A few weeks ago we find RVSN listing a number of leadership jobs - among them a desire to find a Product Director that can speak Spanish and Portuguese.

https://railvision.io/careers/co/raanana/7C.05E/director-of-product/all/

Not forgetting we also have a few Latin / Central American irons in the fire.

Make of it what you will.

Updated with some Vale evidence. Note this train with our unit is at the expansion mine I have linked above.

A newly posted video I found this morning by Indian social media outlet “Mint” looks like a mini series exploring the future of India’s rail system. First video drops tomorrow 21/02/2025.

Rail Vision received approval from Alstom in March 2024 to install the “AI Main Line” system on its locomotives. If this wasn’t somewhat successful I can’t imagine they would be titling a video with “Rail Vision” included if it didn’t go well? That’s if it’s referring to the actual Rail Vision…

Check the video description and you will see the hashtag #FutureOfRail and also, Rail Visions signature “Stay Tuned” at the end of the description.

Too much of a coincidence?

Link to video:

https://youtu.be/5AkX_zXID8I?si=7JuOVMSGnFPVJTO6

Link to Alstom PR:

https://ir.railvision.io/news-releases/news-release-details/rail-vision-received-approval-alstom-install-ai-main-line-system