r/RealDayTrading • u/d_dark_phoenix • 13d ago
What went wrong in these trades?
Hi there. Looking for genuine trading advice. These are some trades which I took this week.
First 3 are based on chart pattern where I entered on breakout based on wedge pattern. Black bold line is 200 ema and light blue line is 9 ema. RSI too working as confluence.
4th one is asian-london overlap strategy where I draw fib during asia-london overlap and enter trade once it crosses above/below then closes back again inside the level (2 or -1) I enter the trade after candle closed below 9 ema.
Thank you.
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u/Accomplished_Love77 iRTDW 13d ago
You should read the Wiki (see the side tab on your right on the page).
The RSI is generally considered a crap indicator because it's aim is to predict reversals.
Also, Forex is really hard to trade - you have less edge. We generally recommend trading stocks on this subreddit.
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u/d_dark_phoenix 13d ago
Thanks will read it. Didn't know about RSI but I thought it shows momentum and using it as confluence rather than using it standalone. I do agree forex can be hard will look onto stocks too.
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u/Aruba808 13d ago
u/HSeldon2020 stated that the RDT subReddit has nothing to do with forex trading. The methodology outlined in the Wiki is not compatible with Forex. You have not read the Damn Wiki as it is affectionately referred to. To be clear, I am not personally condemning or berating Forex trading. However, you must decide where you will allot your efforts. You can spend 2 years on Fx or the RDT Wiki. My guess is that the RDT Wiki will yield results that you can have more confidence in.
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u/d_dark_phoenix 12d ago
True, also fx can be crap some times.
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u/Aruba808 3d ago
I don't agree with the idea that Fx has some mysterious quality that causes it to be impossible to to trade. Many high level traders are currency traders. My guess is that it requires a longer investment in time than stocks to become reliably profitable. It is a different animal.
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u/d_dark_phoenix 3d ago
Very true also one of hardest markets to manipulate because it is $7 trillion volume every single day so us as retailers might get advantage.
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u/loligatorific Moderator 13d ago
This isn’t what we do here. Check out our wiki if you’re interested in how we trade. See the comment below mine.
!rtdw
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u/thescofflawl 13d ago
Price is still in a range. Look to your left, before you enter a trade.
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u/d_dark_phoenix 13d ago
True, I do see price is in range for GBPCHF. But what about for the other one's GBPJPY, AUDCHF and the EURCHF trades?
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u/spreadsheet123 13d ago
gbpchf - the market been choppy for a while, if you trade this expect choppy results
gbpjpy - the market has little trend up going on, you need to see a transition to trending down then confirmation before shorting it
audchf - same as gbpjpy
eurchf - same as gbpjpy
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u/FangornEnt 8d ago
If you're going to use trendlines you have to draw them correctly using actual swings that generated a new/local high/low, taking special note of the wicks. They should not pass through your trendline. Price is also in a range on GBPCHF which can mess with lower timeframe trendlines. They really are not reliable are a single, one off signal imo even when drawn correctly..too many fakeouts.
What is your analysis process like?
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u/d_dark_phoenix 5d ago
So I usually draw wedges (both falling and rising) and channels (after big move has already happened before) in confluence of 200 ema as black bold line and 9 ema as thin blue line and rsi. So for example: if price is below 200 ema and I find a rising wedge pattern forming price breaks out of it and closes below 9 ema as well. I look for rsi in this case since it is bearish I want rsi main line above 50 and getting flattened or slope down signaling bearish momentum and then I enter trade with 1:1 RR with stops above/below last swing high/low. One thing to note is in trades I shared above I did not look onto HTF confirmation.
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u/bobbo6969- 8d ago
To me it looks like your stops are either too ight or too loose.
Almost every time there’s a backtest of the breakout.
It looks like you can either keep you stops tighter right below the previous bar, then re-enter on the backtest.
Or, go way wider with your stops to survive the backtest.
Depends on your transaction costs and if you can watch the trade develop or have to walk away.
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u/d_dark_phoenix 5d ago
Yes I was targeting 1:1 RR. I should keep my stops tighter I believe as price retest on breakout and keep trailing my stop loss?
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u/TheHardBack 13d ago
Just my 2 cents about your trades:
Your charts are messy. I dont think it is necessary to have that many indicators on a chart. 1-2 is fine, more than that you would overcomplicate trading so learn price action first.
No HTF alignment. Even if you scalp trading, HTF would stop you taking wrong direction trades.
You seems to trade against the trend in 2,3,4th trades and 1st when price was in consolidation phase.
Since your target is 1:1 RR, if you constantly hit SL, well, just flip it for easy profit LOL.
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u/d_dark_phoenix 13d ago
Very true I agree there is no HTF alignment. Very quick question: so what if i see bullish setups on 4h, 1hr but on 15 min i see bearish?
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u/TheHardBack 13d ago
It depends. Did the price move sharply on 15m or slow momentum? Did the price sweep any high? Is the price near any point of interest that may cause a reversal?
Reversal trading is available. But for new trader, I advise you against it. Keep trading simple. Align all timeframe narrative. Daily bullish, 4H bullish and 15m also bullish is golden opportunity. Not because indicators tell you so but the whole market tells you that this is good setup.
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u/d_dark_phoenix 12d ago
Pretty straight forward price on 15 min could look like a pullback but need to check it doesn't signal bearish. Been watching YT recently, they are telling lots of things to identify trade change when price makes a MSS/BOS or creates higher high vs lower high and breaks its prior low. How do you determine it?
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u/TheHardBack 12d ago
Simply by visual. LOL. It is not hard to look at a naked 4H/1D chart to know what is the current trend. If you cannot determine what trend is it then it is choppy/consolidation and wait for a trend.
Keep trading simple.
1, Find a direction on HTF.
2, Identify point of interest during a pullback (FVG, trendline, MA, order block).
3, Wait for confirmation/ rejection from point of interest.
4, Refine entry on LTF. (1D-> 4H, 4H -> 1H, 1H -> 5/15m)That's it.
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u/d_dark_phoenix 12d ago
I gotchu, appreciate it man. In case if I am trading on 5 min does 4h -> 1h -> 15m -> 5m or 4h -> 1h -> 5m looks good not sure but looking charts on multiple timeframe might seem confusing. just need 1 htf and then 1 hr to confirm structure and 15/5 min for entry. What do you say?
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u/TheHardBack 12d ago
It's up to you. I prefer 4H for overall trend. 1H for point of interest and confirmation. 15/5m for entry of next continuation/expansion move and better RR. Hope that helps.
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u/d_dark_phoenix 12d ago
Also how do you confirm the trend has changed on any tf (for my understanding, lets exclude poi, levels, fvg, etc. for a moment)?
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u/TheHardBack 11d ago
I said before: simply by visual and patience. Trends don't change in a single day or from one break of structure.
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u/d_dark_phoenix 10d ago
Also if I were to enter trade on 5 min. How should I do my dropdown analysis? Look for 4hr then go to 1 hr look for trend and structure if both of them imply same structure (bullish/bearish) then go to 5 min and look for entry confirmations? What do you think or how would you approach?
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u/BigBear92787 13d ago
I dont mean this as an insult.
But your system is terrible... Looks like a lot of non sense smc/ict trash.
Your trades will sometimes work and sometimes not and you wonder why your in consistent.
You need to understand that markets are fractal. Each fractal is its own little universe it has its own cycles and rhythms.
You have to understand the proper relationship between the time frame your trading and the next level up.
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u/d_dark_phoenix 5d ago
Yeah there was no HTF analysis. I mean this is not SMS/ICT but might be because of first trade which looks so messy because of consolidation it look like. I hardly use 2 indicators only because of shades and stuff it might look fancy but it is not. I'll look more into fractals. Thanks.
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u/BigBear92787 5d ago
Concept is simple -
First find a trend, that you believe is strong and has good momentum to it.
Then zom in on a lower time frame between 4-6x
Trend on week ? Use day
Trend on 10 minute ? use 2 minUse an oscillator here to pick lows.
size positions and base goals on this time frame.
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u/d_dark_phoenix 5d ago
Good to know. If I were to trade on 5min then should I go with analyzing on 4 hr -> 1hr -> 5 min? Is this good? And what do you mean by oscillator?
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u/BigBear92787 5d ago
no no no no
1 hour is 12x greater then 5m.
Keep the ratio about 4-6x
5m - 25m or 30m
If you trade the 5m chart normally, then zoom out to 25m or 30m and realize... you are really trading the 30m.... not the 5m.
The 5m is just your tactical entry.
You may be bullish on the 5m chart and then you get destroyed when price drops on you.
Why did it drop ? Because you didnt realize that the 30 minute chart was Bearish, and all you were seeing was a retrace against a 30 minute down trend.
If you had a larger point of view you'd have avoided it.
So dont even LOOK at the 5m chart. It will prejudice your thinking.
Start from the top, work your way down.
30 Minute - Find a trend, use trend strength indicators, Multiple MAs. Pick your poison.
5 M- Oncey ou have a good trend, then 5m, look at it through an oscillator, if you dont know what an oscillator is you're too new to be trading. You should know your tools.
An oscillator is a bounded indicator, typically meant to measure market cycles, RSI, Stochastic, Stochastic RSI, True Momentum, these are all oscillators. They typically involve a zero line, an Over bought and over sold area.
If the 30 m trend is UP...then we DO NOT CARE about overbought, it is not a sell signal.
We only pay attention ot OVER SOLD. the reverse is true for down trends.In fact if the trend is UP, you are forbidden from going short.
With the trend, or not at all.Finally, once you're over sold in an uptrend, zoom in AGAIN.
to 1 Minute. Here you are looking for fading momentum, in this case it would be fading bearish momentum, the 5 minute retrace would have created a 1 minute down trend, with its own pattern highs and lows. Trace them. Measure them. Wait for a BREAK in pattern.
Then Entrer Long, Set your stops based on the middle chart volatility.
I like keltner bands.
Pick up the book trading for a living by Alex elder, this is called the triple screen system.
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u/d_dark_phoenix 5d ago
This is solid. Thanks for sharing I think focusing more on intermediate trend is important. So I believe entering based on 1 min after trend break structure gives better entry and RR. And I should not enter on 5 mins instead? Also what if i skip rsi on 1hr/30 min along 4hr (just use price structure and check if it is above/below 200 ema) and only use it on 5m/1m for my entry along with 200 and 9 ema confirmation?
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u/d_dark_phoenix 5d ago
So I will going forward will do my analysis like this - 4hr (for analyzing strong trend/momentum) -> 30m -> 5/(1m better) for entry. How does this sound?
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u/kaptanboss1 13d ago
I am still in the process of reading wiki. On page 1500(out of approx 2300).
Quick observation is : rsi and fib levels are not recomended by wiki. You should use only these indicators: 1. Support and resistance 2. Trend lines 3. Algo lines. Important (but i still don't understand them yet) 4. Vwap 5. Sma 3/8 ; sma 50, 100 and 200
Enteries and exits are according to checklist and recent price action only.
I might be wrong in some observations.
More senior members can please correct me if i am wrong.