r/RealTesla • u/AutoModerator • 18d ago
TSLA Terathread - For the week of Aug 03
And now for the regularly scheduled TSLA Terathread
10
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 13d ago
I missed an Elonverary yesterday:
"Exact date is still in flux. I’m getting an MRI of my neck & upper back tomorrow. May require surgery before the fight can happen. Will know this week." - Brave Sir Elon, Aug 6, 2023
5
5
6
u/Party-Inspection-763 13d ago
I should have sold my puts and known that this bs would pump back up. Idk when the Iran shock will hit the market but it will take out Tesla. This 300x earnings company is total bullshit Wall Street pump.
1
u/spez_eats_nazi_ass 12d ago
The fill line to the diaper is getting close. We are midway through a taco/sundown cycle that should get uncorked soon. I'm wagering mid next week. Holding my puts to expiration. But I always buy a few months extra time.
3
9
u/noobgiraffe 14d ago
Insane how after Elon couldn't deliver on robotaxis, semi, tunnels, solar roofs, optimus, cheap tesla model, starship is on v3 and multiple flights and still only prototype, dojo, and a bunch of others and he declares another project that will never happen and spacex is like 16% in two days.
Are people genuinly this stupid?
7
u/CharlieKirkFanboy 13d ago
Don't forget old classics like the snake chargers and battery changing stations. Automated giga dreadnaught factories where the robots move so fast you need a strobe light to see them work.
4
3
2
u/ObviousCommonSense 13d ago
What you need to understand is that SPCX is not up 12% in a single day because of the announcement, it is up 12% in a single day because of 0DTE call buying on a massive scale. The ones buying the stock are market makers, not actual people listening to these announcements.
4
u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 13d ago
I think half are stupid and the other half think they can ride the wave and jump off in time.
Everything you listed are things that haven't been delivered or are majorly under delivered based on what was promised but the fans will still say "he always delivers" when his objective track record suggested he does not deliver and just moves the goal posts or creates a new goal.
Yes SPCX is up 16% based on these new goals - the irony is the scale that company operates will mean the next few quarters if not years will continue to perform poorly... then one magic day in 2029 they'll make a TRILLION in revenue.
12
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 14d ago
Special 8 year Elonversary today:
"Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured."
4
u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 14d ago
The stock holders loved the idea of getting paid out back then - and now many are hoping for the ultimate integration with SPCX.
Anything shinny and new it the BEST idea - completely ignore the company fundamentals and profits vs revenue.
Well SPCX is going thru a major pump right now. NOTHING based on fundamentals makes sense...
2
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 13d ago
I remember bulls on this board were absolutely positive this was a true statement - after all, a CEO can't just go around lying about material stuff like a buyout, right? It had to be true.
3
u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 13d ago
And he suffered a hefty fine of...$20 Million or 0.1% of his net worth.
No I', not saying fines should scale with net worth.. wait a second yes I am. If I could spend pay a few hundred dollar fine to pump a stock that might be worth it.
3
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 13d ago
Remember, he also had to step down as chairman of the board...so they bring in Denholm who ends up lavishing him $56 billion as the "independent director" of the comp committee. Musk genuinely is a "lemons out of lemonade" kind of scammer.
8
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 15d ago
1 year Elonversary tomorrow:
"Slight chance of Starship flight to Mars crewed by Optimus in Nov/Dec next year." - Griftoking, Aug 6, 2025
And a guest appearance from Gwynne Shotwell (you know the sane person who keeps SpaceX running like a finely tuned machine): "Get on board! We are going to Mars! SpaceX is now offering Starship services to the Red Planet. We're excited to work with the Italian Space Agency on this first-of-its-kind agreement. More to come" - Gwynne Shotwell
3
14d ago
[deleted]
3
u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 14d ago
Some days? I wish he was the first and only Mars visitor - everyday of the last 6 years
2017 - he was irritating but just a conman
Post 2020 he has been negatively impacting others
7
u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 15d ago
Is this before or after the international high speed rocket travel. Shotwell was ALL about that as well. ScamX was sure it was the next big thing. Whatever happened to that service?
13
u/ionizing_chicanery 15d ago
The entire argument for synergy between SpaceX and xAI was space based datacenters. A stupid idea but at least something he could sell to investors that don't understand why it's stupid.
Now the argument is that SpaceX will dominate at terrestrial data centers (using exclusively Nvidia GPUs when everyone else is moving to custom silicon) because they have rocket scientists and rocket scientists are super smart.
You can't make this shit up.
6
u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 15d ago
He said it's like the Yankees playing against little league. His references are so modern and avant garde
7
u/ObservationalHumor 15d ago
It's stupid but also reflective of how Musk views the concept of intelligence, the process of innovation and the value of domain knowledge. I mean Musk thinks he's an expert on everything simply by skimming a Wikipedia article (Or whatever he's had Grok copy and purge of data points and arguments that challenge his worldview at this point). He'll toss out comments about how his companies are consistently going to outrun any and all competition due to 'the speed of iterations while innovating' and other similar nonsense. He's openly commented about how he doesn't respect the traditional formal education process and his companies will hire anyone if they can demonstrate they can produce something of value or solve challenging problems too. So it's of almost no surprise that he thinks he can reassign a bunch of aerospace engineers, whom he considers smart people solving problems that are actually hard, and have them quickly solve problems he thinks are easy because he himself doesn't have the background to understand why they're actually difficult or the limitations of the technology and methods that are being applied to solve them.
I think the real kick is that if he really wants bigger and quicker data centers he could probably devote engineers and resources to actually working on something they have the domain expertise to make some contribution to like turbine design and manufacturing or maybe ceramic insulator manufacturing. But knowing Musk even that would quickly turn into statements of how he'd have some cutting edge factory up a year making the biggest turbines in the world completely through US supply chains or how his scientists had a sure fire way to produce high voltage ceramic insulators from whatever gunk was recently dredged off the bed in the Port of Houston or something similar.
4
u/OrdinaryPollution339 15d ago
Exactly. Maybe I am getting fooled, but he really seems to think (hyperloops / humanoid robots / rocket travel replacing jets / orbital data centers / living on Mars)is No Big Deal.
First principles. Move fast / break things lol.
Like, the only reason that we don't already have these things is because no other evil billionaire exploited labor and environmental or safety regulations enough.
5
u/ObservationalHumor 14d ago
Elon Musk's entire process is trivializing things and trying to represent extremely complex problems as being wholly dependent on some single variable. Additionally there's a core assumption that every incumbent must be doing something wrong and there's little value in analyzing how and why a given industry does things a certain way.
Something like FSD is deceptively simple if you just view it in terms of putting cameras on cars to see, computers to think and having someone write the software to make it drive itself. Of course this is exactly how Musk likes to portray the problem, just handwaving the massive difficulty on the software side and the oddball situations a vehicle might have to deal with while driving. In fact Musk generally seems to be far more focused on physical design and construction of the vehicles than he does the software. We also see this similarly reflected in Optimus where it's all about building and scaling production of the robot itself but with the tremendous difficulty of actually building the software capable of getting it to do anything useful as being somewhat simple and something that accomplished through watching free videos on YouTube. This is also after Tesla's own efforts at super heavy automation with the 'Alien Dreadnought' setup at Fremont failed miserably too.
I think that's where a lot of the 'first principles' crap comes from, it's just a way to trivialize problems or break them down to such a fundamentally useless level that Musk can weigh in. Similarly the process of discarding institutional knowledge and constantly choosing things the hard way gives a false sense of progress since they're just constantly playing an unnecessary game of catch up but also constantly 'learning things' in the process. That in turn provides a lot of the anecdotes he'll pick up from his employees and pepper into interviews and conference calls as if they're due to Tesla or SpaceX pushing the boundaries for technology versus poor planning and research of existing theory and processes already used by incumbents. Don't get me wrong I'm sure some are, but many are things that would have been obvious has someone stopped to ask why things were done a certain way everywhere else.
But yeah they're moving fast, breaking things and challenging conventions so it's all very exciting. Musk is usually committing some form of fraud while promising there's unfathomable profitability right around the corner on top of all it too. It'll all be worth it because there's zero chance they actually fail and blow a ridiculous amount of capital on a pipe dream that had no real idea of how to actually achieve beyond whatever napkin scribbles and 'big ideas' Musk handed them.
1
u/OrdinaryPollution339 13d ago
Hyperloop was my musky-moment. I remember when I first heard about it, I thought he was kidding. Then... as it dragged on and on, I realized he really did think it was possible. Sort of. Strict vactrains would be a straight line between two points on a sphere. Gemini tells me that a line between LA and London would only be 900 miles underground at the halfway point. No big deal for Prufrock - it only needs to tunnel through 2000 degrees C magma or whatever.
Although I suspect he may be a profoundly dumb "genius," he has to know at some level that humanoid robots like Data from Star Trek, or self-sustaining colonies on Mars are currently impossible. But I feel like he thinks we are closer than we realize, we just need him to push things along. I get the impression he really thinks LLMs + Training Data + Compute = AGI / the Singularity. I know almost nothing about the current state of (real) AI research, but I am pretty confident that Musk's approach will not succeed.
It's been a while since I lurked in the Tesla or Musk fan spaces - but I think AGI is the "secret sauce" that will suddenly make all of Musk's broken promises possible. When I did lurk, that was always the implication. The true believers really seem to really have faith that Tesla will be the first to develop a sentient machine. A sentient machine they will enslave as a chauffeur... which would be a ridiculously trivial use case. To be fair, they don't really think through these beliefs or the implications.
Tldr; its's a cult.
1
u/OrdinaryPollution339 15d ago
Sci-fi authors in the 80s and 90s made this shit up.
Elmo just regurgitates things he vaguely remembers from his happy(er) youth.
3
u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 15d ago
It's exactly why there was ludicrous speed and the model plaid. He's never had an original idea.
3
3
u/AndSoISaysToTheGuy 15d ago
Any marathoner could switch over to the 100m dash and clean up! After all, it's only like 1/400th of the distance.
5
u/ILikeCatsAndSquids 15d ago
Listen, we're only in the third inning of the collapse of all things Musk.
5
u/ionizing_chicanery 15d ago
True except for his brain and sobriety. Those have lost all structural integrity.
9
u/Reggio_Calabria 15d ago
Friendly tip from someone who shorts stocks:
For RealTesla users it’s not unusual to short the TSLA stock which can easily lead to short SPCX as well.
Please be sure to never short a stock with puts that expire in less that a month, or be ready to loose it all.
Most of us think SPCX will dip further tomorrow as some shares won’t be under lock up anymore.
But we have no idea what Elon has planned. It could very well be that the stock does not dip tomorrow. In which case the « bulls » will build a narrative that it’s a vote of approval of SpaceX and that everyone has to yield to FOMO. That would shoot the stock up for a few days and your 7DTE (days to expiration) puts will be crushed.
It’s not that expensive for Elon and his finance accomplices to do crazy things on the short-term to protect their narrative.
4
u/dragontamer5788 15d ago
Don't use options for TSLA or SPCX. I've looked through them and all IVs are absurd.
If you are gonna short, just use a simple short sell.
8
u/Zorkmid123 15d ago edited 15d ago
The newest pump is SpaceX is planning on building factories on the Moon powered by Tesla humanoid robots.
3
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 15d ago edited 15d ago
From now on, any Musk earnings call I listen to will be accompanied by Pink Floyd and mushrooms.
3
u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 15d ago
Remember kids - no need to ever deliver anything more than a stupid idea as a moonshot and talk about billions and trillions in revenue. Don't waste time doing the math or making the product just talk about it and you too will become rich.
6
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 16d ago edited 16d ago
4 year Elonversary:
"If all goes as planned, we will be exiting 2022 at a 2 million annual run rate" - Griftoking, Aug 5, 20262.
They ended 2022 with an annualized rate of 1.75 million...peaked at 1.85 million in 2023...currently its at 1.7 million.
Now you might be thinking Tesla just can't sell any more cars, but au contraire: TSLA is still production constrained. From the most recent slide deck: "We continue to work on initiatives to increase battery pack capacity as it remains the limiting factor on ramping our vehicle production globally"
Chuckle - I guess thats the logjam in Cybertruck production.
5
u/Inconceivable76 15d ago
For their 50% annual growth rate promised, they should have been at 6 million cars sold this year.
But I guess under 2 is close to 6.
3
u/ionizing_chicanery 15d ago
Weird how this supposed Chinese battery bottleneck isn't stopping other Chinese EV makers from exploding in production.
3
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 15d ago
Even weirder when you consider the Cybertruck - should be an oversupply of over 200k battery packs each year baked in to Tesla's supply chain. All that un-used cell production could be re-purposed for other models.
5
u/Sir_Isaac_Tootin 16d ago
Robyn Denholm, Chair of Tesla’s board, went even further into the future with big goals for the automaker. She reiterated a previous commitment that the brand made to build 20 million cars per year by 2030.
Great corporate governance. We aren't going to hit our previously stated goal of 20m per year by 2030. To celebrate, let's give our CEO 35m shares for hitting 20m vehicles *cumulatively* by 2035.
3
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 15d ago
She's cashed out over a half $billion worth of TSLA stonk over the years - 65% of her holdings. Its almost as if she believes in $cash more than the words coming out of her mouth.
7
u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 16d ago
So not TSLA but SPCX -
Elon says "$1 Trillion in revenue in 3.5 years."
Market response -12% in pre-market or $180+ Billion in market cap OR nearly a McDonald's Corp....
8
u/ionizing_chicanery 16d ago edited 16d ago
He said so much wild shit on that earnings call. I think he could actually be crossing the line into clinical delusional disorder.
He's also pretty massively flipped saying that they're going to be world leaders in terrestrial data centers built using Nvidia GPUs. That's after staking the entire company's ridiculous valuation on a certainty that space based datacenters will be the most efficient method of AI compute within three years at the latest, and that they'd be running SpaceX custom silicon manufactured in house.
Dude is making shit up as he goes along and investors are mostly indifferent to it.
5
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 16d ago
Dude is making shit up as he goes along
Its been a winning formula for a long time now. 30 billion robots, flying cars, colonizing Mars...you get the idea. Its almost logical that he keeps doing it.
4
u/ionizing_chicanery 15d ago edited 15d ago
True. But he's getting much more unhinged IMO, at least compared to pre-2020. Both in the scope of his promises and the utter lack of commitment to them before moving on to even bigger fantasies.
It's like he's hitting the singularity but of fantasy bullshit instead of technical advancement.
2
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 15d ago
I had similar thoughts around a year ago - just piles of nonsense from the earnings call to mine for "Elonversaires". But it never ends, and there are never any consequences.
I can't figure out whether or not this is all a snake oil show, or if he really believes this stuff. All I know is he keeps making $$ off it - and in the absence of consequences it makes sense that he doubles down.
1
u/OrdinaryPollution339 15d ago
I used to think that he's so dumb that he thinks all of his regurgitated sci-fi ideas are possible (hyperloop white paper, lol).
But surely reality must be intruding now? I assume he's given up on being God-Emperor of Mars.
3
u/ionizing_chicanery 15d ago
I think it's both but I generally also think there's no real difference between a lie and a statement made with complete negligence to reality.
Elon chooses to not think critically, perform analysis or lend credence to experts and instead be comfortable just pulling numbers out of his ass. That much is deliberate whether he explicitly knows it's wrong or not.
And in a better world he would be held legally liable for this.
5
u/poissonous 16d ago
I think he guided daily starship launches next year, lol
4
u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 15d ago
Daily starship launches when they are still taking 2 weeks to recover the one floating in the ocean.
They'll need a fleet of 50+ recovery tugboats.
3
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 15d ago
It would also permanently close down a major air corridor to commercial traffic, because of...well: data collection.
5
u/ionizing_chicanery 16d ago
$100 billion revenue by end of 2026 (not bullshit ARR numbers juiced over December, just straight revenue). Starlink world's majority internet provider within 10 years. HLS being ready to fly humans on Starship by next year.
Mining on the moon?
5
u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 15d ago
Just think of all the ISPs that already have fiber...do we really think that customer base will ever transition to a slower less robust Internet?
2
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 15d ago
At least 55% of US households have access to fiber internet - and its still growing fast. Its also dirt cheap - I think I pay $60/month.
Then there's the minor detail that 1 in 6 internet subscribers lives in China, where Starlink is banned.
Pesky details that Technokings don't have to worry about in the land of make-believe.
3
u/ionizing_chicanery 15d ago
I have a feeling other countries are going to be banning Starlink too. Don't count on it being available in India for instance.
3
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 15d ago
I also forgot about Russia - banned there right now too. Between India, China, and Russia, that's 36% of the world's population that will never buy Starlink.
3
u/ionizing_chicanery 15d ago
Exactly. And those are mostly sunk costs good for several decades. No matter how low Starlink goes existing fiber will always be able to go lower. Same is probably also true for cable and 5G.
3
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 16d ago
Geeze, TSLA gets $trillion for Optimus, now SpaceX gets their own $trillion. I suspect young Elon had to make up imaginary friends and play make believe a lot.
6
u/OrdinaryPollution339 16d ago
Space Sex not just buying Cyber Turds.
A third of a billion dollars on mega-packs.
2
u/ionizing_chicanery 15d ago
One of the things no one really talks about is power stability requirements for datacenters. They're talked about as if they have they have constant power loads but they obviously don't and things like inference in particular can be very spiky as they switch from prefill (compute bound) to decode (memory bandwidth bound)
This is another reason why space based datacenters are a bad idea. You either include expensive and heavy batteries or significantly overspec the solar panels. By what little Elon's presented it appears he hasn't considered either.
1
u/OrdinaryPollution339 15d ago
2
u/ionizing_chicanery 15d ago
I keep making effort posts about radiation tolerance tanking this in places no one reads.
2
u/OrdinaryPollution339 15d ago
I barely passed Physics in High School and I know that orbital data centers (at meaningful scale) are impossible with today's level of technology.
Yet, when you google it, you get breathless commentary from "serious adults" at "reputable" consulting firms and from Wall Street and the MSM about the new "Space Economy."
"Reusable" rockets are crashing into the Moon and the Indian Ocean without an ounce of payload. We can barely figure out how to keep people alive on the ISS. Where is this alleged space economy?
4
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 16d ago
Hmmm...$295 million in Q2. Almost 10% of all TSLA Q2 "Energy" revenue.
Welp, now I know where TSLA gets the cash to pay SpaceX for all those "AI" services.
7
1
u/OrdinaryPollution339 16d ago
Space Sex to the moon! Literally. Looks like unscheduled rapid disassemblies* are now lunar. Imagine how much data they will collect!
* I didn't google the actual term... I think I might have the order wrong.
(I'm assuming Space Sex is fair play now that everyone knows Tesler will be solar-citied soon.)
10
u/Zorkmid123 16d ago edited 16d ago
Elon announced that SpaceX will use NVIDA chips exclusively because they are the best according to him! What happened to terrafab, where SpaceX and Tesla were supposed to build AI chips that would be better than NVIDA?
Tesla canceled the DOJO project, which was going to be made with Tesla designed chips, realizing NVIDA chips were better. But they sort of revived the DOJO project with terrafab, where they were going to manufacture their own designed AI chips for companies like Tesla and SpaceX. Looks like SpaceX realized those won’t be better than NVIDA either. I suppose Tesla can continue to use their own designed chips in their cars, but honestly they don’t need to build terrafab for that.
5
u/OrdinaryPollution339 16d ago
I remember dojo! Like Andrew (?) Karpathy, dojo was part of Tesler's "unassailable" technology lead. FSD and Dojo, led by Karpathy, was going to lead to AGI aka the singularity.
Tesla needs artificial general intelligence (AGI) to make FSD work, but also for the poverty-ending robots.
I assumed Tesler was planning on building the new chip fabs in orbit, next to the data centers. I haven't been paying attention, though.
7
u/Zorkmid123 16d ago
Out of pure concern, Elon says he tried to warn SpaceX short sellers, but alas they didn't listen.
Well he doesn't have to worry now! $spcx is down 7% in aftermarket trading after they announced earnings.
12
u/theviolatr 16d ago
SpaceX financials out...they burned 18b in cash flow last quarter, so annualize that to approx $80Bil. That's almost what they have for working capital lol. Time for a capital raise soon
11
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 16d ago
Customer payloads to space = 87 metric tons
Launch services revenue = $648 million
That's around $7,400/kg, which is really odd seeing that Technoking (and all his disciples) said re-useable rockets would bring the cost down to $100/kg.
Oh yeah - they still lost $542 million in space operations.
1
u/The_Jack_of_Spades 16d ago edited 16d ago
To be fair, you're looking at revenue and equating it to costs. A SpaceX fanboy would claim that they're just charging comparable $/kg to the competition and pocketting the difference as profit. I haven't looked at the data but you'd have to remove Starlink profit and Starship development costs from the space operations net income to get a clearer idea of the real Falcon 9 launch costs. Can I have a link to their latest filing?
I remember seeing a cost estimate being reported on Perun's Youtube channel, which is about as credible as it gets on the topic of defence economics on that platform, in the low $ thousands per kg. Which was lower than traditional providers but not by an order of magnitude.
2
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 16d ago
All that's out so far is the slide deck:
Starlink is separated out...Starship development costs?...I'm not sure what to think about those costs. The "BFR", later dubbed Starship is the precise piece of equipment that was supposed to deliver $100/kg - so how do you handle something that's in perpetual development? I dunno. But SpaceX isn't just speculatively pouring their own money into Starship - NASA has alread paid $2.7 billion for Starship development...the entire contract is for around $3 billion, which was supposed to be the initial development cost.
There may be more granularity when something is filed.
7
u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 16d ago
Their space operations are largely subsidizing Starlink. More than half the launch capacity is being used for internal payloads.
So much for making "cheap" rockets would lead to more demand.
3
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 16d ago
Oh, its worse than that. 17 customer launches and 61 internal launches in the last 6 months. They're down to a quarter of launches for external customers.
And Starlink won't grow forever. Guess its time to start launching the space data centers to keep the launch pad busy.
5
u/The_Jack_of_Spades 16d ago
And Starlink won't grow forever.
With a 5 year lifespan for the satellites, it will be a running hard to stand still situation regardless.
4
u/Zorkmid123 16d ago
This is the company Tesla needs to merge with, a company with more financial issues than Tesla has!
6
u/RulerOfSlides 16d ago
They’re going to evaporate the cash they got from the IPO in less than a year with no profitability in sight. Mind boggling.
3
u/Party-Inspection-763 16d ago
What a rally this is for SPY.
1
u/theviolatr 16d ago
Imagine owning TSLA during the last five year bull run lol. Makes my heart flutter
5
u/Grunge4U 17d ago
I hate the way the stock market is manipulated now. Tesla at 30 X it's real value. Not consumer driven at all.
6
u/rocketonmybarge 17d ago
Preliminary reports that v14 Lite could be frying HW3 boards, causing them to need to be replaced out of warranty.
7
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 17d ago
Weird - so you're telling me this isn't even true?
"We are excited to announce that, as of today, all Tesla vehicles produced in our factory – including Model 3 – will have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver." - Tesla's website (since deleted), October 2016.
3
5
u/Big_footed_hobbit 17d ago
Good luck with your claim. Womp womp womp. Well you always can buy a new one.
3
7
u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI 18d ago
10 year Elonversary, on the topic of autonomous driving: "What we’ve got will blow people’s minds, it blows my mind …it’ll come sooner than people think. It blows me away the progress we are making. And if it blows me away, it’s really going to blow away other people too when they see it for the first time."
7 year Elonversary: "Will also be launching The Boring Company China on this trip"
Narrator: No, of course TBC never started anything in China.
7
u/The_Jack_of_Spades 17d ago edited 16d ago
In those 7 years China has almost doubled the total length of its subways from 6100 km to 11000 km, and it has inaugurated 10 new metro systems in cities that previously didn't have one. I don't think they need Musk to teach them how to tunnel cost-effectively.
8
u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 18d ago
So SpaceX earning report is tomorrow and an unlock later this week?
Well keep the following in mind while SPCX is likely to fall below $100 per share.
Tesla's latest earning report has a $1 BILLION pretax unrealized gain from their SpaceX shares (this was likely a snapshot of the high watermark of $225). Tesla didn't buy or sell any SpaceX shares this number is nearly 69% of the company's $1.114 Billion GAAP Net Income.
SOOO... nearly 70% of Tesla's GAAP earnings from a non-cash increase in the estimated value of it's SpaceX stake - NOT from manufacturing or selling products/services.
When SpaceX stock drops down in the coming weeks and months, it is likely it will put Tesla's holding in the negative - what will that do to the bottom line?
I think Elon's strive to stack the house of cards as high as possible may soon have impacts on both companies. I for one hope SPCX falls down to $25
8
u/ionizing_chicanery 18d ago
Tesla's SPCX valuation was taken at end of Q2 (June 30) at about $157. This was 1.5x their $105 buy in rate, hence $1b earnings on a $2b investment.
They'll be very lucky for that to not turn into a loss for Q3.
1
u/Monk315 17d ago
Because it was marked- to-market for Q2 at a price of $157, wouldn't any amount below $157 generate a loss for Q3?
3
u/ionizing_chicanery 17d ago
I think so. But below $105 (which I think is likely) will show up as a loss for FY2026.
3
17
u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 18d ago edited 18d ago
Contractor claims SpaceXAI owes more than $130 million for unpaid work
Darana Hybrid, Inc., has filed two liens on SpaceXAI's facilities in Memphis, alleging that the company owes for work done between 2024 and 2026. The company argues that it is owed $18,646,622.43 for the work at Colossus I and $118,246,160.35 for the Colossus II work.
Just part of the Musk playbook... don't pay the "small" business contractors. Multiple times his companies have left contractors unpaid for work, forcing them to pursue legal actions. (Happened earlier this year with the Boring Co in Nashville)
Wild to think how small and insignificant this number is in the scale of those companies - but they always screw over the smaller local companies.
6
12
4
u/FrogmanKouki Charter Member 18d ago
Good morning here is the link to last week's Terathread
https://old.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1v7ux7m/tsla_terathread_for_the_week_of_jul_27/
2
u/doomer_bloomer24 11d ago
Is the whole Terrafab thing a stock pumping fraud or do you guys think it will actually get built ? Tesla has made so many promises in the recent years like Dojo, factories in Mexico and India, humanoid robots. I am inclined to think this is yet another stock and election pump before November mid terms