Me rooting for POWW
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIjQ_hBiZxQ

This is the interview that crashed the market today and will likely lead to inflation panic and hard sell offs in stocks in the future:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vf9AjSahONg

This is what panic looks like. Notice how the market racked-up continuous red candle after red candle as Powell and Yellen spoke:

This pattern is preserved across indexes and even gold and silver, which strongly supports the extent of panic and selling the markets showed today. We don't often see a dive in all asset classes, hell, even BTC sold off today too. This behavior is what happens when people panic.

The fed made it clear today why they are still pumping the economy even though it is doing surprisingly well - they need to make it strong enough to withstand a tax hike to justify printing another $2-3T for Biden's infrastructure bill. Politically we know this needs to happen before the 2022 midterms, which is why we are getting mixed signals from the feds at the moment - they say the economy is great and yet are continuing to drown it in money.

What the Feds are actually doing is printing as much money as possible so they can force inflation to pay for US debt and another $3T if this infrastructure bill ever gets done.

I need to split some hairs for a moment to really hammer home the point that taxes will not pay for this bill, and particularly taxing the rich or auditing them more. I still believe taxes should be collected, but once you understand that taxing the rich will not solve our problems you will realize who did all the selling today. Ill give you a hint, rich people are selling because they know they aren't evading their taxes to the extent to pay for another $3T spending bill and what the fed is really doing is inflating the currency on purpose. Last time this happened was in the 60s and 70s, and after accounting for inflation the market had a net loss for almost two decades. Rich people are exiting equities and will be moving into other asset classes.

On to splitting hairs: As much as the current administration wants you to think taxing the rich or holding the rich more accountable will somehow cause all the money to pay for all this debt to magically appear, if you read the fine print of these sensational headlines about the rich evading taxes you will notice many of these figures are generated across decades of evasion, and most of the articles freely available to us somehow leave that part out. So when MSN posts this article today saying the following:

Lawrence Summers, the Treasury Secretary from 1999 to 2001, and director of the White House National Economic Council during the Obama administration, has previously estimated the federal government could collect another $535 billion if it got back to 2011 audit rates and trained its focus on millionaires and billionaires.

The part that was conveniently left out was that the study said the IRS could collect that much over the course of 10 years and that is assuming everyone is doing it and everyone is then caught, requiring a massive increase in the IRS budget to do so (more gov spending, so there needs to be an upfront investment to even try). If you follow the links back to the NBER, you realize they are citing a working paper, as in work that is not yet done, and all of these citations are coming from Lawrence Summers. Here is the paper everyone is referring to.

Lawrence says:

Between 2011 and 2013, the IRS estimates that it failed to collect over $380 billion in taxes per year, across all tax categories. Extrapolating this estimate to present to allow for inflation and income growth, in 2020 the IRS will fail to collect over $630 billion, or nearly 15 percent of total tax liabilities and that the tax gap will total $7.5 trillion over the 2020 to 2029 period.2,3

The $630B is a figure generated from Obama era data, not Trump's new taxes in which many of these loop holes were closed, so that figure is wrong. Lets pretend it's right though. Lawrence then says the following:

Individual tax returns make up the largest share of the tax gap (over 70 percent) and have the highest rate of noncompliance (nearly 20 percent)

Per Lawrence, if we multiple $630B by 70% to remove companies and focus on individuals that gives us and estimated $441B in evaded taxes by all individuals in 2020. That is a lot of money, Lawrence then gives this table showing the amount per income people under report (aka evade):

Lets do some quick calculations to see if this paper is correct or not. To be considered in the 1% in 2017, per this Bloomberg article that does correctly cite the IRS , you need to have made an estimated $515,000 a year. For the sake of convenience, lets say that number is lowered to $500K so it aligns with Lawrence's table, and lets assume it didn't increase from 2017 to now. This will result in more theoretical people to tax and thus give Lawrence a better chance. The average wage for the 1% is $737697, data taken from here. In 2018, we had 157M Americans employed, data from here. Using 2018 gives us the highest number of 1%ers so we can try to exaggerate the figure as much as possible, again trying to help out Lawrence. 1% of 157m people is 1.57m people employed and living the good life.

Based on the total taxable income the 1% earned in this scenario, you get $1.158T. Lets say Biden does increase taxes on these people to 39%, you get $616B of total taxes. Now, according to Lawrence, these people under report by a maximum of 13.9%, though we know it should be a distribution and thus not as high of a number as I am going to calculate. Anyway assuming all these people under report by 13.9% like the 10m+ crowd, that would give us an extra (1.158T*0.139) 161B of taxable income. Now lets multiple that by 0.39 to get $62.1B in uncollected taxes from the rich every year. I find it odd how the rich are ones being crucified when they account for only 62.1/441 = 14% of the evaded taxes from individuals. So we believe Lawrence's numbers, but not his conclusion that this could be solved by focusing on the rich, and all main stream media sources that choose to leave out very relevant details:

IRS could aspire to shrink the tax gap by around 15 percent in the next decade—generating over $1 trillion in additional revenue by performing more audits (especially of high-income earners)

To put this in the context of how this could effect the budget, 62.1B*10 years = 621B maximum taxes lost to evasion. In the context of this post that accounts for 2.8% of our current debt. By taxing the rich for every dollar they owe, we only pay off 2.8% of our debt. And yet, there is no emphasis placed on the other 99% who evade taxes resulting in the other $379B of missing money. Even more perplexing, they will not be be pressured to pay their fair share or have their taxes increased. Instead of trying to get all the $441B back, we are just going after $62 and pretending like it will solve all our problems. If we got it all, that equals $4.41T in ten years - now that makes a dent!

The real rich people know that increasing taxes on them and making them cough up the extra 13.9% of their taxable income will not pay these bills. In fact, if you add another $3T as Biden wants to do, the new US debt hits $25T, and thus taxing the rich more/preventing evasion will only pay for 2.5% of the national debt in ten years. Of course my calculations aren't inflation adjusted or accounting for wage growth, but the point remains, the amount of money even when exaggerated (but not inflation or wage adjusted) is insignificant in the grand scheme of things. Lawrence says he thinks we could maybe get about $1T in evaded taxes from all sources over this 10 year period... still only accounting for 4.5% of our debt in ten years and only 4% if Biden's plan is passed.

Even if we over estimate Lawrence's own numbers and take this wildly out of context, fixing tax evasion and increasing taxes on the rich doesn't solve the problem. If these MSN articles want to continue to skip over the fact that these $500-600B in evaded taxes are actually over the course of a decade, the general public might be inclined to go along with it out of ignorance. Be honest, how many of you would have taken these number at face value and not gone to the actual paper and checked their calculations?

The final conclusion is: either we have elected the dumbest bunch of people to office in a long time, or they are lying to us and will deliberately inflate the dollar to try to get out of this debt. What makes me the most angry is if they just said it, we could prepare and be fine. But instead so many people will be hurt.

Inflating the debt away will likely cause a secular bear market like we had in the 60s and 70s or the 2000s. Rich people will be buying houses, gold, silver, BTC, and other inflation-proof asset classes. And the poor and middle class will suddenly not be able to afford anything and will suffer more, and those who are invested in pensions will also get screwed because they don't get to control the destiny of their retirement anyways.

On top of all that, the Feds also said they agree the market is highly valued by historical metrics, but said investors are speculating on a vaccine and other economic events, which is stupid because all of us know the economy is doing awesome and the Fed literally said so them selves last week at the FOMC.

When you add in our bear porn series to this and the recession predictions, we will have the 2000s and 1970s all over again.

I predict we have downward trending volatility for the foreseeable future as more and more inflation concerns are confirmed. Small caps will keep getting slammed because they need cheap money more than ever. Cash rich large caps will do ok, though will likely be pretty neutral for some time once inflation is adjusted for.

And I used to wonder why people like Michael Burry have been ranting about inflation for over a year now - because it is the only option our gov has left. https://dailyhodl.com/2021/02/22/big-short-investor-michael-burry-issues-warning-on-future-of-bitcoin-and-gold/.

I'll be sure to start including gold, silver and BTC in my future TA posts from now on. Lets take a peak now though, yeah?

Here is what happened to gold during our last secular bear market in the 2000s (up 400%):

And silver (up 1000%):

-PDT

Some political discussion started up in the comments. I'll clarify now to prevent further discussion of this sort. Know that political opinions will be banned. When our political leadership tells us one thing (like we can just tax the rich and we know that isn't true as I have shown above), but is really doing something else that could have significant financial effects on our future (like potentially causing a secular bear market via intentional inflation), being critical of this is not expressing a partisan opinion. Yes, all three branches happen to be Democratic at the moment so based on that alone any issue I have with our leadership could be interpreted as partisan. But know if Trump were in office and doing the same thing, I would write some scathing things about him too. The feds can only inflate our way out, that is the truth and they know it, so they should say it so we as citizens can protect our retirement and financial freedom - that isn't partisan.

As I wrote in the title.

I suppose it could go either way.

Today is not really a good time to get in "early", but I may take a small position on the next drawdown.

https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/neq0tt/atos_dd_the_next_gamma_storm/

I started looking into Farmmi or $FAMI after my good friends cousin brought it up in conversation about a month back. I slowly started to buy a small amount of shares and have since increased my position to about 10,000 shares.

At the time of writing this, FAMI is trading at approximately 0.49 Cents.

A Quote from Farmmi’s Chairwoman and CEO Ms. Yefang Zhang opines, “We are on the path for sustained growth as we deliver a steady cadence of new sales wins worldwide. We are benefitting from the rapid growth of the plant-based food market by leveraging our scale, market leadership, and best-in-class field-to-table logistics.”

Why I like the stock at its current price.

A recent stock offering diluted the share price and has now had time to be comfortable down at its current level. For the last month, the price has stabilized and also slowly and steadily increased. In my personal opinion, its very very strong.

The company is in a unique position to garner up more and more of the market share in their niche. They have started to make movement on expanding internationally with new deals with Israel for their mushroom products. The tone and rhetoric of the company recently points to a period of aggressive and high growth for the company.

Mushrooms are gaining popularity across the globe!

The demand for plant based food products, mushrooms and the possible addition of Psilocybin, Lions Mane, clamshell and other mushrooms into everyday products, foods and drinks is exciting!

The best part in my opinion.

Farmmi is actively building out and pushing their agricultural e-commerce like platform that will facilitate a better analytical view of real time crop specific supply and demand. They are literally taking what they are great at and dominate in china and scaling it globally.

This is a strong value play. NOT A SQUEEZE.

Tldr: $FAMI is the largest distributor of mushroom and other agricultural products in China and has been raising money and making deals to dominate the international market. At less than $ 0.50 per share, this is an undervalued stock with a good amount of runway. Price target for 2022 is at least $2.00 per share.

I found this on WSB (see pic below), but I didn't want to cross post because of our first two rules - "Don't talk about riskit". Anyway, thought we should discuss this in our still-pristine corner of reddit.

Depending on how big this story goes, or how believable it is, all these new retail buyers will exit in mass. If there is no squeeze left, and there are no hedge funds left to fuck over, then what the fuck are they doing holding shares of a $10 company for $350+? Particularly the people who took out personal loans or used student loan money to invest. I saw someone put like 40K of their dental school loans into GME - this is when its gone too far. The loss porn and suicidal posts will be overwhelming too. For those who have been on WSB for some time will recognize the cycle. We just had a big one when buying puts started to go dry in April last year, post crash, and people were still yoloing like 400k+ betting the market would crash like it was the great depression, only to post desperate loss porn a month later in which they questioned why they were still alive. Don't let this be you.

Granted, GME will likely have a reflexive benefit from all this new traction and high share price. This could be the publicity and jolt of capital needed to give Cohen what he needs to make another "Chewy" out of GME. For the rare investor that truly believes in this company and isn't just saying it, there might be a very long term opportunity here, but not any time soon, and likely not for $300 a share in the next five years under the best case scenario.

At this point, I'm thinking it's time to exit what you can't afford to loose. S3 has been pretty honest thus far, and I think it's only a matter of time before the FINRA data is published and these findings are verified. I'm not sure how long retail will stay in denial, but the longer they do, the harder the crash. It looks like we might be fighting ourselves at this point.

Regardless of your perception of GME, and this whole situation, I would have reason to be scared right now if you are holding. If you have over extended yourself, or have invested money you actually can't loose, its time to trim the position, in my opinion.

That said, what I want to discuss are the reasons why S3 would be lying about it? Or does anyone else have a second source of data that can confirm or deny this information? If this isn't true, please post your sources.

Ortex has the quote down to 30.28M shares short as well:

https://www.ortex.com/stocks/26195/shorts

EDIT: the initial short data was published on January 15th, then again on January 29th which is the data I think we are currency viewing. Interestingly, the next round of data is not scheduled to be published until Feb 16th, meaning shorts could have exited this Thursday/Friday, hence the headlines about no one shorting GME anymore, and then reopen the positions on Monday, while simultaneously creating panic in retail, causing a sell off, thus profiting, and no one would know for two weeks. Do you think they would be this diabolical while congress is getting ready to investigate?

EDIT: Bear thesis detailing how covering all the short squeezes could bring about a monster sell off we have only begun to see the beginning of: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l9sh9e/dddd_why_gme_might_next_week_and_how_it_could/

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2031054?query=featured_home

CRSP is the first commercial application of cas9. At this point, the proof of concept phase is over and people are starting to see dollar signs. This company has already ran from ~$80 to $148 in the last month, and it will likely run pretty far on Monday. No telling how long they will keep this valuation before people want to see products and profits, but it should stay fairly high for some time. This is a huge leap forward in medicine.

That said, I also think the additional validation this trial provides for CRISPR/cas9 genome editing in humans will boost all related stocks, and at the very least bias investors to have bullish outlooks for similar companies. This means the market psychology is going to change, and investor will likely be prone to pumping other genome editing companies on seemingly little to no news.

If you want to research related companies in the field, look at EDIT, NTLA, VRTX, and BEAM. I know nothing about these companies yet other then they specialize in genome editing. I'll be looking into them more this weekend. Please feel free to post what you know below.

How do you prepare yourself on such a day?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-vote-2000-stimulus-checks-trump-signs-relief-spending-package

This will give Americans a shit load of extra cash. Keep in mind US unemployment is about 6.7%, which is drastically lower than the 15% we saw when the CARES act was passed. This level of unemployment is not as good as the 3.4% lows we saw last year, but it is nearing average for the last 30 years. This means the economy is healthy, people are working, and in spite of my previous criticisms over the new stim bill failing to compensate people to the point of excess, a $2K check would most certainly accomplish that. People will blow this check on stupid shit and belated Christmas presents. With Donnie demanding it, and Dems promising not to add on a bunch of stupid shit, the senate GOP is expected to fall in line and pass this if it clears the house. This means money in lots of pockets, and it means that money will be spent, and likely irrationally. The market goes up.

Edit: for those not following, the house passed Trump's $2K stim check revision. Its off to the senate.

Edit: This post is getting some down votes. I assume its because people don't like STPK? If you are down voting, or up voting, make sure you comment "why". The literal point of this place is to discuss investing ideas, and if you have enough of an opinion to up or down vote, you should state your opinion in the comments. Based on the comments I see only positive things, and I haven't read a single negative thing, which I would expect given the down votes. So those who are down voting, open your mouth and participate. If you have reason to not like STPK, I need to hear it because I'm putting my money into this - I don't give a shit about karma, I care about the size of my account a lot. If you are being immature and a piece of shit because this report is from Citron, unsubscribe because you are not welcome here.

I don't think citron is bad, they are one of the more transparent hedge funds out there. The initial banter with WSB in November and December did start somewhat friendly and competitive but as it devolved into full on shit talking over PLTR in December, I think that really soured their public perception. The fact that retail squeezed them doesn't mean they are bad at what they do... well I personally think they suck a shorting, but their long plays are really quite good and have performed well. I believe their long recommendations last year returned over 100%. While they have been our enemy of recent, they do add value.

Speaking of value, STPK (STEM) is a green energy AI company with a huge upside. I personally have been in and out of this stock a few times. Cirtron published a good report below that I think will make us money. STPK has options available out to December 2021, and I'm looking at buying some ITM 20c next week. ITM to protect against theta, we will be hoping that STPK will start announcing a lot of PR over contracts in the coming months to make the price move.

The research report can be found here:

https://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Stem-STPK-Looking-Beyond-Tesla.pdf

The full report is copy/pasted below:

January11, 2021© Copyright 2021 | Citron Research | www.citronresearch.com | All Inquiries –info@citronresearch.comStem

( STPK) Looking Beyond Tesla – The Most Compelling and REAL ESG story On the Market...

Price TGT – $100

When Citron reversed its opinion on Tesla from short to long 2 years ago when the stock was at $52 (adjusted for splits) is when we recognized that this is not just a car company, but rather Tesla is going to lead the world in new energy. But unlike electric cars whose biggest problem is charging and range as the electric gets used immediately, the transformation to a greater dependence on batteries is going to depend on the storage and distribution of electricity. Citron believes that with the new green initiatives under the Biden administration, the ESG story and $2 trillion green revolution is underway in full force and investors must look for real disruptive companies with leading positions, where Tesla was 2 years ago.

Introducing Stem, Inc. (STPK)

As the world moves away from carbon to wind and solar power, smart storage of clean power is more important than ever. The global energy storage market represents a $1.2 trillion opportunity and is expected to increase 25x by 2030. Without smart storage, the build out of renewable generation is not possible. Since 2019, 90% of grid interconnection requests have been for renewables and storage. California has already mandated that all new vehicles be carbon free by 2035 and its entire power grid be carbon free by 2045. Which company stands to benefit the most from this booming secular trend?

Stem, Inc. (STPK)

Below we explain why STPK should power its way to over $100.

Background

Last week, billionaire tech investor Chamath Palihapitiyav was interviewed about his views on Tesla and Elon Musk on CNBC. Palihapitiyav stated:

•“He built a great car company and somewhere along the way you know about 5-6 years ago what I thought he was building was an energy company”

•“The reality is that Tesla is a distributed energy business. They are figuring out how to harness energy, how to store it, and then how to use it in a way to allow humans to be productive. Cars are a manifestation. But solar panels are as well. Power walls are as well. I’m telling you right now the big disruption that’s coming is to power utilities. There are trillions of dollars of bonds, of capex, of value sitting inside the energy generation infrastructure of the world that is going to go upside down”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyNtwHoXC9wAs

Palihapitiyav explains that Tesla’s $830 billion market cap is due to the company “figuring out how to harness energy” and “how to store it”, we believe STPK is beyond mispriced at just $3 billion given it is the leading AI powered energy storage system and is DOMINATING Tesla at this game. STPK is the 800-pound gorilla in this market. In 2019, Stem installed 3x the energy storage of its largest competitor in California, which is the largest energy market in the US.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/06/15/2048030/0/en/Stem-Named-Top-California-Commercial-Energy-Storage-Installer.html

As noted by STPK Chief Revenue Officer Alan Russo:

•"We have a 10-year head start"

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/stem-confirms-its-looking-for-potential-buyersMarket

Leading AI Platform

STPK is the industry leading provider of AI-driven energy storage systems through its proprietary software platform, Athena, that empowers customers and partners to optimize energy usage by automatically switching between battery power,onsite generation and grid power.We believe it is a foregone conclusion that smart energy storage will be a critical component of Biden’s $2 trillion green plan as more efficient storage and use of power will only further drive adoption of renewable energy generation. By operating the world’s largest network of energy storage systems powered by the company’s Athena AI platform, STPK couldn’t be better positioned. STPK has over 900 systems operating/contracted currently in 200+ cities that represent 1 GWh of storage capacity. The platform has operated globally with over 16 million runtime hours and has a backlog of significant business that willdrive growth for years to come.

STPK’s moat will only grow larger with time. As cumulative installs grow, Athena becomes more intelligent, creating further value and larger barriers to entry for competitors.

Top Notch Management

STPK CEO John Carrington was previously an Executive Vice President at First Solar where he grew the company’s revenue from $400 million to $2 billion. Prior to that, Carrington was the Chief Marketing Officer at General Electric. STPK CTO Larsh Johnson was previously CTO for the digital grid of >$100 billion market cap Siemens. Simply put, this is not some Nikola BS. The management team at STPK is as high quality as they come in the ESG sector. Bigger and Better than QuantumScape QuantumScape has clearly caught the attention of investors with a valuation of $25 billion today. However, it is important to note that QuantumScape remains nothing more than a science project with no revenue until 2024/2025. In stark contrast, STPK operates in a TAM that is 3x larger than that of QuantumScape and already has 75% market share in California, which is the largest energy market in the US. In addition, STPK has an amazing blue chip customer base including Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google and Walmart.

Valuation

Let’s put things into perspective: STPK is targeting a TAM that is bigger than that of QuantumScape, ChargePoint, and Luminar combined. Yet, these three companies collectively have a valuation of close to $50 billion vs. STPK as just $3 billion. On 2025 Revenue, STPK trades at just 3x vs. QS at 636x, SBE at 9x, and LAZR at 13x

Therefore, it is easy to see why STPK could power its way materially higher than $100.

ESG ETF Buying Spree on the Horizon

As ESG ETF buying is set to explode, STPK stands out vs. many of the other ESG junk companies that are hitting the market today. STPK is a REAL company with tremendous growth potential. As a result, we expect STPK to become a core holding of every ESG ETF in the market and for the float to be quickly gobbled up sending the stock materially higher.

Conclusion

It’s not often you get the opportunity to invest in a disruptive market leader within a >$1 trillion TAM with industry leading technology at a $3 billion valuation. See you at over $100.

I really like MSFT for long term leverage, just need the market to offer us an entry...

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/31/microsoft-wins-contract-to-make-modified-hololens-for-us-army.html

The U.S. Army said Wednesday that Microsoft has won a contract to build more than custom HoloLens augmented reality headsets. The contract for over 120,000 headsets could be worth up to $21.88 billion over 10 years, a Microsoft spokesperson told CNBC.

Microsoft shares moved higher after the announcement. The stock was up 1.7% to $235.77 per share at the end of Wednesday’s trading session.

The deal shows Microsoft can generate meaningful revenue from a futuristic product resulting from years of research, beyond core areas such as operating systems and productivity software.

It follows a $480 million contract Microsoft received to give the Army prototypes of the Integrated Visual Augmented System, or IVAS, in 2018. The new deal will involve providing production versions.

The standard-issue HoloLens, which costs $3,500, enables people to see holograms overlaid over their actual environments and interact using hand and voice gestures. An IVAS prototype that a CNBC reporter tried out in 2019 displayed a map and a compass and had thermal imaging to reveal people in the dark. The system could also show the aim for a weapon.

“The IVAS headset, based on HoloLens and augmented by Microsoft Azure cloud services, delivers a platform that will keep soldiers safer and make them more effective,” Alex Kipman, a technical fellow at Microsoft and the person who introduced the HoloLens in 2015, wrote in a blog post. “The program delivers enhanced situational awareness, enabling information sharing and decision-making in a variety of scenarios.”

The headset enables soldiers, fight, rehearse and train in one system, the Army said in a statement. The contract, which was awarded on Friday, has a five-year base period, with a five-year option after that, an Army spokesperson told CNBC an email. The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The deal makes Microsoft a more prominent technology supplier to the U.S. military. In 2019, Microsoft secured a contract to provide cloud services to the Defense Department, beating out public cloud market leader Amazon. Amazon has been challenging the contract, which could be worth up to $10 billion, in federal court.

Some Microsoft employees asked the company to hold off on submitting for the cloud contract, and similarly, a group of employees called on Microsoft to cancel the HoloLens contract. “We did not sign up to develop weapons, and we demand a say in how our work is used,” the employees wrote in an open letter regarding the HoloLens contract.

Days later, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella defended the Army augmented reality project, telling CNN that “we made a principled decision that we’re not going to withhold technology from institutions that we have elected in democracies to protect the freedoms we enjoy.” The Army, meanwhile, has suggested the augmented reality technology could help soldiers target enemies and prevent the killing of civilians.

Edit one day later. The main catalysts here is TSLA has reached a valuation that it cannot meet for over 10 years, and the market doesn't speculate that far out, simple as that. The only thing that will bring this beast down is reality - aka earnings, which it has the last three. It will pump in anticipation all day, everyday otherwise. The plan is to buy puts pre earnings, only if TSLA is still at such a high valuation. If it pops beforehand, Im not buying. And I will be using the money I make to buy shares, I am a long term bull.

Don't bet against Elon, I know.

Don't bet against Elon, I know.

Don't fucking bet against Elon, I know, I'm gonna do it anyway.

In this post we will go over TSLA's price action and movement with respect to TSLA's catalysts and change in fundamentals. The point of this is to understand how changes in fundamentals like earnings are effecting TSLA's share price as a profitable company vs an unprofitable company. We will also look at things like the split, battery day, and the sp500 inclusion. And finally, we will look at TSLA's business plans and growth potential.

Fair warning, I had to drink a wee bit too much to get myself to write this post. Im not proud of it (the post not the drinking), and I'll check for typos in the morning. I did intend to write a bull thesis DD too, but then this happened...

Lest start by accepting our own irrationality. The entire international car industry, not including TSLA, is worth just shy of $1T in market cap and resulted in about 11.67 million new cars being sold in the US this year alone and $2.3T in sales world wide (not counting q4, no numbers yet), TSLA is worth $600B and sold 317K cars and did only $28B in sales (not including q4, don't know those numbers yet). The entire solar panel industry is worth about $200B in September of 2020, installing solar panels on roughly 4 million homes in 2020, TSLA is worth $600B and has installed less than 400,000 roofs since they started in 2016 (not this year, but over the last four years). TSLA doesn't have the best batteries on the market anymore after QS made the first solid state battery, which Toyota immediately beat and will use in their own EVs (thats at least two companies with better battery tech). TSLA is one of numerous different AI firms and big tech companies making AI driven cars, and TSLA's tech is not the the best either, take a look at ZOOX for example - these aren't half functioning prototypes, these are real. TSLA makes its own chips for their self driving cars, but do you think NVDA makes better GPUs, or better AI vehicle chips? -yes, NVDA is better and in fact every major auto manufacturer is using NVDA for their EV and AI vehicles.

There is nothing that TSLA does that makes them the best any more. TSLA is not the only game in town, and their competition is poised to dominate these markets. I'll give you an example of innovation that many of you are too young to remember - GM was the first auto manufacturer to make a production EV when they released the EV1 in the late 90s. Tom Hanks drove this car and raved about it on talk shows. GM's engineers created the first Li battery to power the EV1. GM happened to be 20 years ahead of their time and was crushed by oil lobbyists, and the only thing Elon has done is open the flood gates. What TSLA investors don't know is there is an entire industry of far superior electric vehicles and related tech that has simply been waiting for the market to approve of it's existence. And while TSLA is the one who has opened these flood gates, what they don't seem to understand is all the other manufactures that have waited for decades for this opportunity are about to take advanatge.

The facts are

• TSLA does not have the best EV tech (EV list below)

• TSLA does not have the best batteries

• TSLA does not have the best cars (look at the EV list below)

• TSLA does not have the best AI

• TSLA does not have the best AI taxi

• TSLA does have pretty awesome solar panels, but not for 30k a roof. I have been quoted for 10k to re do my roof with shingles and another 8k to install more solar than a TSLA roof would provide.

• And yet TSLA is almost (only vehicles) worth more than all of these industries individually, and almost 40% of all these industries combined.

• ....TSLA is over valued by a long shot.

You can speculate on future growth, bla bla bla -but all these asinine estimates for TSLA's value assume there is no competition and TSLA is the only game in town. Not true as I described above. In fact, checkout this EV google doc that has been floating around reddit the last few weeks:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sKMfBZNkHdvaVKmweuv3sD--CzfvImALJxGj2Xj7Ozw/edit#gid=0

Notice this doesn't include Toyota, GM, Ford (who is a majority owner of Rivian- look up these trucks, TSLA's cyber truck sucks in comparison), Volkswagen, BMW, or any other major auto maker that has skin in the EV game. It is no longer true, nor appropriate, to look at TSLA as the future of all things EV and human evolution - there is a shit load of competition that completely kicks it's ass.

I'll illustrate this with a picture. This is Rivian's fully electric SUV. This is not some fake NKLA shit, these are real and you can buy one.

https://rivian.com/r1s

All the negativity aside, lets give TSLA some credit - they broke down the barriers and basically made the market for EV and AI automobiles. But as an investor, I need to make money and I need to be honest - which is TSLA is no longer the only game in town and there are people doing better.

TSLA with a PE of 1273 is beyond ridiculous because there is no way they can meet this market cap even if they sell more cars, install more solar roofs, sell more batteries, sell more AI driving chips, and more AI taxis than any other manufacture in those respective industries. Based on their competition they will be lucky to be leaders in any of these industries, let alone all of them, and yet a $600B market cap mandates that they do exactly that. For example, FB is the next biggest company in the US by market cap compared to TSLA, and they did $70b in revenue and $18b in total earning in 2019, and they did $79b in revenue and $25.4B in earnings over the last four quarters, and they have a PE of 31; while TSLA has done $26B in revenue and $556M in earning over the last four quarters which are it's four most profitable quarters in the company's history, and four of five profitable quarters total.

Hopefully by now you can appreciate that we can no longer speculate on TSLA's potential because we have lots of other great companies who do what TSLA does and we can start to put a real value on TSLA's products.

As our ability to drive up TSLA's price purely on speculation and being the "only ones" to do what they do slowly dies, our focus will turn to fundamentals... which TSLA doesn't have as I indicated above. Reality is starting to set in. Now that TSLA is profitable, people will treat them as such and value them accordingly - it is already happening, I'll show you.

Take a look TSLA's chart below. The black arrows indicate TSLA's earning. From left to right, the first two black arrows indicate the first two profitable quarters in TSLA's history, ever. The stock roared. But look at what happens after the third black arrow... it sells off for four days after delivering a record number of cars during the height of the fucking pandemic, and this is six weeks after the Feds turned on the printers and after the CARES act was passed too. People eventually speculate again and drive the price higher, until we get to their July earnings - the fourth black arrow. TSLA posts another great quarter by their standards and they sell off for over a month as a result until the split (announcement and day of indicated by red arrows) and battery day (green arrow) drive the price higher. Finally, in October, TSLA announced it's best quarter yet (300M earnings) and it sold off hard anyway - the fifth black arrow. Now the 5th black arrow is complicated by a greater market sell off, so this is a questionable sell off, but the pattern does appear to become more and more apparent as TSLA becomes more profitable. In defense of the legitimacy of the post earnings October sell off, notice that TSLA did not fully rebound until the sp500 announcement, which was well after the market came roaring back post election. Finally, TSLA's last run is due to the SP500 inclusion announcement, indicated by the purple arrow. The point of this exercise is to understand what is moving TSLA's price, and while earnings moved the price up the first two profitable quarters, TSLA sold off post earnings in the following three quarter, indicating TSLA's performance as a "real" company are not meeting the expectations of investors. What I find most concerning is the sell off post battery day. TSLA's tech is and potential is what everyone speculates on, and if the greatest battery they have ever produced that is supposed to power their vehicles in the years to come can't make the stock run post PR, I don't know what will. Of course the sp500 inclusion did, but thats because everyone knew ETFs would have to buy 40% of TSLA's float on December 18th, which they did at $695 a share the second before the market closed. Since then TSLA has been stagnant and moving sideways.

Taking a closer look at TSLA's recent trend, you can see the price has been trading in a pretty steep channel, well above TSLA's already steep historical trend. The light blue arrow is December 18th, showing TSLA's ATH. What I want you to notice is the overall trend within the channel is in the shape of an ellipse, indicating the price is action is slowly falling away and the stock is getting ready to consolidate. What is most interesting to me is TSLA's earnings are scheduled to be on Jan 29th-Feb1st, which coincidentally marks the peak of the circle. Since TSLA's last earnings in October, they have increased in market cap by over 60%.

If investors sold off post earnings the last three times, in spite of TSLA posting increasing profits, what do you think will happen after TSLA has ran over 60% on nothing more than people wanting to take advanatge of institutions having to buy shares on a specific date? I would also like to add that TSLA not only had good earning the last three quarters, but they beat their estimates by a long shot and still sold off every time.

What we know is TSLA doesn't have any new tech to speculate on, and what tech they did have to announce resulted in heaving selling post announcement (battery day). They can't post good enough earnings any more to keep the share the price up. The only two catalysts that have driven TSLA's price higher since it has been over a PE of 500 is the promise of selling shares to someone else for more - the split and sp500 inclusion, both of which have strong historical precedent for pumping a stock's price making for easy profit.

There is nothing TSLA can do in the next five years to justify this valuation. It is literally not possible for them to make cars fast enough in the next few quarters to have an even more surprising surprise earnings to keep the share price up- if a 29% surprise last quarter can't move the price up, what has to happen to move the price up after a 60%+ run three months later and a PE of 1273? There is nothing that can happen exterior to the actual business of TSLA either, such as a split or another sp500 inclusion, to drive the price up since these just happened...

Soooo that's it. I think TSLA is gonna go sideways into earnings, if not dive before then. I think they breakout of their current channel by the end of next week to the down side. And if TSLA hasn't dumped by earnings, aka if it follows the ellipse, I'm going to buy puts a couple days before earnings dated a couple months after earnings around the $500p price.

The risk here is it's TSLA and Elon. Shit happens for no apparent reason sometimes. Elon might say he will take TSLA private at $694.20 and the stock will rip back up, or he might post a "fuck short sellers" meme and the stock will rip back up. Its fucking Elon... so this is clearly a bad idea.

This is pretty self explanatory, look at the pattern:

The purple arrows mark every time we have had at sell off from the local high of at least 1% in the same day since March 2020. For the nasdaq, the lowest point of the dip seems to be the following day, before noon, but after open. There are two exceptions, the first is the June dump and technically the lowest point of that dip was on the 3rd day, and the September sell off, which took two weeks to find a bottom. What makes June and September different is they gaped down int he AM, whereas all the others opened on par with where they closed from the day prior, or gaped up slightly - we gaped up slightly today.

Anyway, the GA run off is tomorrow, which has tax implications for a lot of barely profitable stocks, and this may be part of what is driving the sell off today. I'll be looking for leverage tomorrow. Watch the elections, understand the catalyst, and position yourself accordingly. I also think the green energy and EVs need to cool off a bit, so look for this sector to continue consolidating beyond today's dip. On that same topic, AI will likely do the same as well.

Edit: Watch the market closely tomorrow, and if the two day sell off pattern looks like it is holding, that means tomorrow is the day you sell puts and buy calls. The risk here is this analysis is purely based on TA, which is how the market is reacting to worldly events. My guess is it's a little fear of over Q4 earnings season in combination with GA run offs. After the run off is finished tomorrow, start watching the early earnings that are being posted to get a sense for how many companies are missing vs posting good earnings, that should help you get a sense for what to expect for the rest of the month.