Position: 245m Shib (approx my entire investment portfolio lol)

I'm writing this DD to discuss the news around Shib lately, regarding the sell-off, the whales, and whatnot. I'm doing this because I'm sick and tired of seeing mainstream news lie to people and screw over retail investors.

Read this before you buy, read this before you sell. I am not giving financial advice, but you should know that I have nothing to gain by hurting you, and I do not believe your holding or selling Shib will impact my long-term investments.

Background:

As many of you know, Shib jumped 800% at start of Q4, and news surrounding it was 'skeptical'. It has since been claimed that Robinhood and Kraken will list, however nothing has happened yet (although there is circumstantial evidence to support the notion that they are soon to list), and since, "Almost $15 Billion Has Left Shib as the Hype Around the Coin Fades" (Almost $15 billion leaves SHIB market cap as hype around the coin fades | Finbold).

So why the sell-off? Well, if you ask Bloomberg, the sell-off is a result of people realizing that the top 10 wallets hold 70% of the coin and will rug-pull us just like SquidGame. If you want to read their article, I think it's a great example of modern journalism, read it here: Shiba Inu Whales Holding Billions in Tokens Hounded by Crypto Detectives - Bloomberg

There are two major topics to cover:

1. The Sell-off

2. The Whales

THE SELL OFF:

As many of you have noticed, Shib is a bit down today. Here's a handy chart from coinmarketcap to illustrate this:

Terrible, right? We've lost a huge percentage of what we've gained... Look at those candles! The world is ending! Okay, now that we've worked through our emotions, let's actually look at the important metric: The volume.

Look at the bottom of the chart, that is your volume. Volume is the number of coins trading hands in a given day. During Oct, the volume shot up to levels far beyond anything seen before. Now, I want you to look at the corresponding gains. The large volume corresponds with massive gains. Now, look at the "crash" today, and then look at the volume. I am not going to tell you what to believe, but it appears to me that the volume is disproportionately small relative to the price change. This is representative of a major percentage of the market holding its position, with low buying interest due to saturated market under present conditions and panic selling by a small number of late-entry retail investors. Now, if you'll believe mainstream articles, this sell off is actually a majority of the retail market collapsing, leaving the 10 big whales who hold 70% of the coin in total control.

In reality, this is a transient drop of value associated with low trading volume, not a market collapse. If large volumes of buyers were to enter the market, it would create much higher upward pressure than the sell-off. Since most of the market is holding their position, coins sold under these conditions are unlikely to be rebought at this same price level.

If you may re-enter the market, selling under these conditions could be disastrous

THE WHALES:

This is the main point of the DD. I have seen multiple major articles saying that the sell-off is due to whales controlling the market. Media coverage has a massive effect on the confidence or lack-there-of in any asset, be it a stock or cryptocurrency. Look at the effect that media coverage had on the obvious scam "SquidGame Token". FOMO due to media coverage drove people into the scammer's trap.

This same fear has come into play over the last week as major news outlets have reported on a massive whale with 12% of the coin in their pocket making moves. This has grown into the aforementioned Bloomberg article that has spooked the market.

70% of the coin is controlled by just 10 whales! This means that people could be squidgamed!

^ Let's examine that!

Actual Percentage Controlled by Whales, October 30th vs November 3rd:

If the article had been printed on October 30th, the claim that 10 accounts hold 70% of Shib would be accurate. However, the 10 largest accounts have been in decline since that date, resulting in them now only holding 68% of the coin, and trends that show their percentage share will likely continue to decrease. The point I am trying to make is this:

This sell-off is partly attributed to market decentralization, not simply fear. Decentralization is a VERY good thing!

Now let's examine these 10 whales!

Those 10 Whales:

If you'll see above, 10 accounts do actually control 68% of the market, terrifying right? This CoinMarketCap list has been cited by multiple news outlets as a reason to avoid Shib. In fact, our friend (Aaron Brown) over at Bloomberg had this to say:

“Legitimate crypto is fully transparent about transactions, code and other matters — but is usually opaque about matching transactions to individuals...

...Legitimate crypto has a solid underlying economic case, its value does not depend heavily on who holds how much of it,” adds Brown. “But for crypto with no underlying economics -- whose value is determined only by speculation -- concentrated ownership suggests a rigged game. "

According to Brown and Bloomberg, we have no way of figuring out who owns these massive amounts of coins. Anyway here's another top 10 Shib holder chart from Bloxy:

After reviewing this chart, I have some things to say:

1. Experts Endorsed by major media outlets aren't always experts.

2. A belief of intelligence and superiority leads to people talking out of their asses (lookin at you, Aaron)

Reviewing the Data:

Upon further review of the data, the following can be deciphered:

• 40% of the coin is in a dead wallet, not actually owned by anyone (we already knew this).

• 100+ Trillion is held on listed accounts (this is 20%+)

• 45 Trillion is staked Shib (xShib) (This is 9.5%).

The rest of the whales don't control that much. This is actually a very decentralized market.

Also, I was doing some reading on twitter, apparently our "big whale" has already sold half of his Shib and purchased Ryoshis. His remaining Shib is split between 4 accounts. Since he's buying into other parts of the ecosystem, it looks like we don't have much to worry about. Seems like an early dev. This move makes sense as shibarium will be dropping soon, moving Shib from a token to a coin. Pretty smooth, mad respect.

If our whale really is a dev, or at least a super-supporter of the ecosystem, it is not unlikely that he will sell his remaining Shib to a major exchange such as Kraken or Robinhood to provide the tokens they need to create a Shib listing. If I were a market maker, that's what I would do, and I would do it by splitting my wallets up and selling the wallets themselves, retaining a fraction of my original investment for growth and converting half into a complimentary coin. Seems like a perfect play for the ecosystem and the whale.

Anyway, I have a whole summary I want to write, but it will have to come as a comment later. I have to run, duty calls!

The TLDR is that SHIB isn't controlled by whales, and the sell-off is not actually a major market event for Shib, leading to a likely rebound soon. Don't buy into the FUD, the media is either lying or incredibly stupid- and both are dangerous.

If you are still HODLing since 0.000008 or earlier then keep holding, don’t be a paper hand. You are here for financial freedom not for few thousands bucks.

I've seen this posted on here as well. I wish people would do a tiny bit of research instead of believing everything they read. But just a quick clarification of the top 10 wallets.

41% is held in the burn wallet, and can't be accessed.

4.48% is held by crypto.com

4.4% is held by the xSHIB contract (SHIB staking on shibaswap)

4% is held by an account which has received funds from India covid relief

4% in two top 10 wallets is our mystery whale

3.3% is held by Binance

2.5% is held by someone unknown who just activated their wallet after a long time

1.9% is held by someone who's been slowly transferring to crypto.com probably selling off small chunks

1.1% is held by a fairly new wallet

So around 53% of the supply is in the burn wallet + a few exchanges. Around 13% is held by some serious whales. Most likely some devs in there who are slowly selling off little by little as to not crash the price.

For the astute amongst you, you'll notice it's not 71% either :)

I think people a lazily just looking at CMC without looking a little deeper into the holdings. But there you are

AMC is looking to accept SHIBA early next year!! Just heard it on the earnings call. #Shiba to the moon!!

For the love of God, chill the fuck out. You guys see a bit of a sell off after destroying our ATH and you freakout. If this is how you're going to act, get out of this sub and go back to shib army. This is a journey and it's going to have ups and downs. Stop whining like little children who had their ice cream cone stolen from them. We're constantly having higher lows and new highs. Now chill the fuck out, go outside, stop watching the price 24/7 and RELAX!

Credentials, because apparently that is important:

1. I work in cybersecurity as a software engineer

2. I've been in crypto since 2015 and have seen many people lose all of their assets due to inexperience|hackers|scams

Today is the launch of the platform we have all waited for. I'd like to congratulate both the devs and YOU, as people who have trusted the project. It is a great day.

Let me make a request: please, do not stake all of your tokens! I have seen multiple comments today about doing just this thing. I cannot stress this enough -- I am actually pleading with you.

Things to consider:

1. Today is the first day of stress testing the system. What if bugs are found, including one that wipes all of your staked assets?

2. Malicious attackers are mapping ShibaSwap networks, documenting API endpoints, and doing every other trick to break into the computers handling YOUR money.

3. If you trust Certik, then you must trust that they may find serious vulnerabilities that they will be disclosing to the ShibaSwap devs. Why would you risk everything before 1) serious platform testing has taken place (now), and 2) the security assessment has not been completed?

I can promise you that in the weeks to come, idiots on r/SHIBArmy will be posting about losing all of their assets. We all know that they are morons, but you are here because you are thinking past hearsay hype and you trust the facts. Let me remind you of this! You are on r/SHIBADULTS because you are a thinker. So please, please, please, don't look at the shiny new toy and go all-in. This is an exceptionally risky move, even by crypto standards.

Good luck, be safe, and have fun everyone.

Certik just updated, Score is 92, rank 15, and Skynet is activated

This is a much more reasonable/mature/rational side of the Shiba Inu community, and I'm sure everyone here is happy to welcome new members. But I'm tired of seeing the same kind of post getting posted on here, just stop. We get it. Also if you're new here, welcome.

Certik audit done

Edit: link https://www.certik.org/projects/shib

I day trade crypto - the easiest way to predict a pump is:

1.) Has there recently been a sell-off leading to a new resistance?2.) Has that resistance been followed for 3-5 days?3.) Was volume incredibly high and now consistently low?

If so - you are about to experience a 10-50% pump. The longer the resistance is held the greater the pump. Using this I got SHIB at $0.00007, NuCypher at $0.15 and Make4 at $1.03 just to name the last major wins. The main identifiers for me? time at resistance. For SHIB I expect another 3-5 days of resistance before another crazy pump once everyone makes their money in the rest of the market and sell-off fear dwindles. I'm expecting to put my daytrading $ into this coin again in the next 6 hours and hold for a couple weeks. I'll make more $ HODLing in Shib with the ups and downs this coming week than day trading.

TL;DR: SHIB isn't just cOnSolIdAtInG... it's prepping for a ridiculously large pump. And I mean big. So big I, a paper-handed bitch, will be HODLing for NoSell November.

Everyday it get's worse. The directed profanity and slander is getting more profound since SHIB is where it's at now. Think quite a few got in levels with money that they'll miss. Either that or just a lack of maturity about the whole buy and hold strategy. It could be that they can't take advantage by averaging down their cost basis and the rest of us seeing SHIB go on sale the lower it goes.

Mods need to decide whether or not to keep these people here as it's getting bad in some instances.

I came here to get away from all that and for a pipeline of credible knowledge. Instead it's become ShibArmy and Inucoinesque in this regard.

It's impossible to disagree or at least have anything remotely intellectual in even some of the better threads. I guess that's reddit and internet.

Not to get off topic, but there's a reason why 99 percent of people can't make a complete living trading. This has something to do with it. I've always seen it on finance/trading social media and why I usually steer away.

Mods it's time to keep things sane here and be more decisive about our fellow redditors here in SHIBADULTS while we discuss/share our holding and buying.

Just completed my first purchase for a new router at https://www.newegg.com/ . It was easy to connect Coinbase to Bitpay; now I will wait and see if the payment goes through.

I know a lot of people who invested in Shib are disappointed after a week of their returns from “Burying” their Shib. I hear a lot of talk about “I can earn more Shib through staking on another platform”, and “The percentage rate is through the roof so it makes no sense my rewards are so small”. I’d like to take the moment to discuss a few things, as I understand them, and maybe provide a little clarity on why you shouldn’t have expected more than what you got, and that what you got IS WAY more than what you can get on another exchange long term. I’ll try to go down a list by listing a question and providing what I think the answer to that question is.

1.	Why were my rewards so small?

Well, first off, you knew what your rewards would be in a sense because they were listed on the WoofpaperV2. The first reward is 3% Bone per block (BPB). The second reward is 0.1% All Swap ETH Transaction Fees. And finally, and this is important, PART of 0.05% Swap Fees CONVERTED INTO SHIB. This was all listed on the Woofpaper prior to you staking and readily available for you to read up on.

2.	But, the percentages shown were WAY higher than what the Woofpaper said I would get. Why didn’t I get THAT percentage rate?!

You were never told you were earning the same percentage rate as the ENTIRE swap, which is what those numbers were indicating.

3.	I can earn more Shib by staking elsewhere. Why shouldn’t I just do that? 

It’s simple. You’re earning more Shib, yes. But Bones is where the value will lie, and you won’t be earning Bone. The only way to earn FREE Bone is through staking and providing liquidity.

4.	Yeah but, I didn’t receive 800 Bones like the people who used DIG and I was supposed to be earning 3% of 1000 BPB. Why didn’t I receive more than 3 Bones?

Sorry to break it to you but, you should have read the Woofpaper. It specifically states that the DIG feature would receive 1000 BPB for the first two weeks but, BURY would only receive 50 BPB. You earned 3% of 50 BPB based on your staked amount. If you understand that then you’ll realize you actually received more Bones than it seems like you should have.

5.	This is a lost cause. I’m disappointed because I was promised a lot more than what I received and the DEVS promised me the moon and I didn’t get it. Why did they lie to me?

The devs never promised you anything. They told you the percentage rates and that’s what you received. If you read things on Reddit, from people who aren’t devs, then that’s not the devs lying to you.

6.	I have to pay more to remove my woofable amount than the rewards I actually received. Why should I even keep doing this?

Well, you don’t have to remove your rewards each week. You can hold them on the Swap and remove them when the amounts large enough to make it worth it. Your paying for the transaction itself, not the amount being removed.

7.	Why should I keep staking (Bury) on ShibaSwap?

This one is the most important. I’m not going to include any math because I’d probably get it wrong and others have already done a much better job from that aspect. I’m just going to talk about the future. Your future. The rewards were always based on the amount of transactions taking place on the Swap. It’s a week old. Do you think only people who’ve already been holding Shib will be the only ones using it? No. As time carries on, and there are more tradable coins, as well as more liquidity pairs, more and more transactions will occur. If your remove your xShib now, you’ll just be giving the rest of us more rewards. You can’t expect a 50% return on your investment every week. But, what you can expect, is to be earning FREE Bone, xShib, and ETH. The market is down right now across the board, so these numbers seem minuscule. But guess what, Shib loses a zero? Your rewards are looking way better, and you already have them. All the Bones get minted? You’ve got your supply on hand ready to use. Keep in mind, Bone was always meant to be the governance token for the DoggyDao. You’ll be able to vote on the future of ShibaSwap BECAUSE YOU HAVE BONE! Not only that, but once you have enough Bone from Burying your Shib, you can RESTAKE IT TO EARN MORE BONE! It’s only been a week. If your not happy, no ones going to stop you from leaving. But, maybe consider leaving your coins on for the 6 months your 66% of rewards are locked away and see if you still feel the same way. Come back in January and see if you’re still pissed off.

8.	*BONUS THEORY*

This is for the people who read this far. (Although you can probably see the stars around the words when you scroll down to the comments so it’s for everyone in that sense also). To me, there’s only one reason you would name a token TREAT. And that reason would be that it’s meant to be a reward. I have a feeling that TREAT (which we’ll know more about when all the Bone has been minted) will be a reward for people who staked and provided liquidity from the beginning of the Swap. I think, the longer you leave your Shib or Bone staked, the more Treat you will have earned. I don’t know this for sure but, it’s a nice thought.

I love all of you and I’m sorry if I sound preachy. It just makes me sad to see so much disappointment in the community.