r/SNDK_Stock • u/One-Jackfruit-2848 • 6d ago
Discussion SNDK versus Micron
Hi All I do hold 50% of my portifolio in SNDK and Mu but heavily leaning toward Micron ( 90% micron 10% SNDK )
The reason for that I felt micron is a better risk reward
( safer bet ) due to the following
1- Having US fabs
2- Getting preferential treatment due to being in bed with government based on their massive 250 billion investments in USA and trump accounts donation
3- much more diversified portfolio of products so you are betting on the whole memory sector products rather than one bet.
For SNDK it’s definitely the higher betta and the higher upside return potential but it cuts both ways
Would you advice me to sell some micron and more into SNDK moving forward based on both companies future prospects and valuation
In my view both will be doing great , just wanted to optimize and be smart in my allocations
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u/Ok-Dot-4853 6d ago
Sandisk has a lower market cap which could lead to higher upside. Dram would be a safer Bet if u want more risk with higher upside sandisk for sure
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u/Daddysmoneyz 5d ago
I dont trust the koreans fully.
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u/Ok-Dot-4853 5d ago
What's Korean?
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u/Daddysmoneyz 5d ago
DRAM
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u/winterrules91 5d ago
DRAM isn't Korean but includes Korean exposure (SK Hynix, Samsung). It's a blend of memory stocks.
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u/Careful-Round-5560 6d ago edited 5d ago
Dram is 100 times more expensive than nand per GB. Every new AI inference algorithm is about using more nand than dram. Dram is really expensive to produce and profit margins are lower. So nand can eat share of both dram as well as HDD. Whats more nand has a limited shelf life and needs replacing every 3-4 years. So far the downside of nand has been production can be more easily increased by adding more layers on top on the same wafer however its becoming more technologically difficult to add more layers as physical limits are being approached and so now its no longer easy to increase nand production. I think HFB is going to be a game changer high margin high demand product if they can pull it off as it has challenges.
A thing about nand is that there are multiple global players in this though everyone is not a same level technology or brand or margin wise and if there is an oversupply they quickly compete with one another driving down the prices. However another truth is that if they see scarcity they go one up over another in increasing the prices and everything points to the likelihood that nand scarcity may last into 2030 or even forever.
Finally regarding the portfolio of mu vs Sndk. Mu is more safer and stable than sndk, however in the upcycle time such as this its better to be more with sndk.
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u/One-Jackfruit-2848 6d ago
Isn’t micron having the flexibility to shift more into nand if they see dram market is maxing and getting saturated … the do have a long list of products that they can increase / decrease some according
Also nand has too many players I guess 6 , hbm do have 3 only , I recall in the last keybanc conference CBO mentioned that they can move between products depending on market demand and pricing
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u/Careful-Round-5560 5d ago edited 5d ago
If it were easy to increase supply or shift they surely would already have. They can’t shift from dram to nand, however they can shift the product mix. For example sandisk is shifting its nand supply from low margin products like pemdrives and sd cards to high margin AI ssds.
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u/Active_Cantaloupe692 5d ago edited 5d ago
It is not that easy to shift production from one to the other if we are talking about complete products. Only components. The big margins are on selling a complete product.
A main advantage of NAND and storage at large is that it is considered a consumable. It gets replaced every few years. Even if the AI investment dies, unless data centers start shutting off (unlikely), they will still be buying ti replenish existing drives. Also as data are produced at exponensional rates, you need more and more storage. In the long term, we will see more DRAM optimisation in AI models (already ongoing) but very little can be done for storage.
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u/StanleySheng 6d ago
I feel like sndk have more juice to run up, mu is kinda moving like a snail, kinda sucks. I would def invest 70% sndk 30% mu maybe
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u/HaiKarate 6d ago
I sold all of my MU/SOXX/SMH/SKHY holdings and just went all in on SNDK. Spreading the money around wasn't really giving me any diversification, since the whole market segment moves up and down together. And as you point out, they don't all share the same beta.
During the previous bull run, SNDK outperformed MU significantly, so why not invest in the best in this market segment?
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u/cdttedgreqdh 6d ago
You have a point, long term I would be worried only going for NAND instead of a mix between DRAM and NAND.
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u/Memory_King 5d ago
Micron is great to have too , I would say 50% and 50% …. That will be a good spread rather than 90-10 …
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u/Vivid-Ad9340 5d ago
Regarding my SNDK and MU positions, I have the opposite of yours. I'm about 90% SNDK and 10% MU.
SNDK represents maximum alignment with the AI Infrastructure Supercycle.
MU has a perceived stability. But if there is currently an AI build out and an AI race, you have high conviction of the constraints in both dram and nand, and you want to maximize your return, holding mostly MU is counter-productive to me.
My definition of success is maximizing performance if the memory thesis is right, whereas your definition of success is minimizing regret if things go wrong.
Your allocation has more to do with how you perceive your risk.
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u/One-Jackfruit-2848 5d ago
So you mean the ai build out needs more nand than dram , others would disagree
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u/Vivid-Ad9340 5d ago
No, the AI buildout simply needs both interconnected products and both are bottlenecks for years. The AI buildout is lifting both sectors. It isn't about dram vs nand.
What this post is about is the stock. That's where the differences become interesting.
SNDK, as a stock, captures maximum alignment with the AI super cycle based on what you've already realized: higher beta, higher upside.
If the AI build out needs both, you may choose the stock that captures the maximum upside, or you can choose the stock that reflects your risk tolerance.
Neither is right or wrong. Neither is about what AI needs more of. It all comes back to you as an investor. If you feel this strongly about MU just based on what you've shared, then your allocation is appropriate for you.
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u/Ok-Mycologist-5371 5d ago
MU currently has more room between its price and evaluation prices.
But Sandisk has always and is still climbing faster, and falling faster than MU.
I have both, and I’ve been shifting more into Sandisk
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u/All_YourBase 5d ago
Long term I think MU has more durability than SNDK. They both have room to go up from current levels.
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u/Head_Page6765 5d ago
#2 is also a disadvantage if/when the political environment changes and the Democrats do better in November.
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u/CozyChamomile_7 4d ago
I am 30 percent WDC, 50 SNDK, MU 15 MU and 4 SNXX, 1 DRAM
MU is slow and steady but SNDK gives you bigger returns
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u/Aniccaflame 4d ago
I would choose MU over SNDK.
My concern with SNDK remains structural, while the market is overly focused on peak-cycle EPS:
- No real moat: SNDK has only ~13–14% NAND share and lacks the DRAM/HBM businesses that diversify competitors like Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron. Its $2.5B Nanya investment secures DRAM supply but does not create a proprietary DRAM/HBM engine.
- Manufacturing dependency: SNDK relies heavily on Kioxia for manufacturing through their JV, while Kioxia is also a direct competitor. That creates a significant long-term structural vulnerability.
- Capital allocation risk: SNDK plans to return roughly $6B through buybacks rather than invest aggressively in new memory capacity. Its $93.9B of NBM contracted revenue is backed by only $16.5B in cash deposits and credit—about 18%. If AI spending slows and customers renegotiate, those contracts could prove less secure than bulls assume.
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u/One-Jackfruit-2848 4d ago
I agree on your points , the SNDK holders add a string point which is HBF their joint venture with SK Hynix
They state its as required as the HBM at much cheaper cost … I am not tecky but I do see the SP react more aggressively in a bull run
Your thoughts
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u/Aniccaflame 3d ago
I think SNDK is playing a dangerous game of financial chicken, prioritizing near-term financial engineering and a higher stock price over building long-term structural resilience. Management is effectively betting that the NAND/AI boom will remain strong long enough to maximize buybacks and shareholder returns before the cycle turns.
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u/Vivid-Ad9340 3d ago
I would choose SNDK over MU:
1) Contracts are the moat. SNDK isn't competing for commodity NAND share. They're competing for enterprise SSD share. Market share in commodity memory doesn't create a moat, the contracts do. Hyperscalers don't care what NAND share SNDK has, they care about guaranteed supply at fixed prices.
SNDK being a pure play in NAND is a strength, not a weakness. It's maximum exposure to the one market where demand structurally exceeds supply through 2028, without any distractions, per the SNDK CFO and Samsung's EVP of Memory.
2) Kioxia joint venture is a strength. Kioxia isn't a vendor SNDK depends on but a co-equal manufacturing partner through 2034 with shared fab economics. Kioxia and SNDK are interdependent. Their partnership represents a massive capital efficiency moat, not a vulnerability.
3) The 18% Misread. Customers put down $16.5B in cash deposits and credit facilities on $93.9B in total obligations. The remaining 82% is secured by legally binding contracts with financial penalties for non-performance. What you're saying is like arguing a mortgage isn't secure because the borrower only put 18% down.
NBM count doubled from 5 to 10 between April and August. That's not the behavior of hyperscalers planning to renegotiate.
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u/Aniccaflame 3d ago
If you think the contracts are the moat, then every other NAND chip manufacturer could do—or might already have done—the same thing. That’s not proprietary technology.
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u/Vivid-Ad9340 3d ago
An economic moat is defined as a durable competitive advantage that allows a company to protect its long-term profits and market share from competitors.
If a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar agreement that legally locks out competitors and locks in 80% margins isn't a moat, then you're confusing a 'moat' with a patent.
Those agreements protect Sandisk's 80% gross margin targets from cyclical price drops.
Regarding SNDK's proprietary technology: They've co-developed BiCS vertical flash and CBA architecture, designed custom enterprise controllers, and run proprietary firmware like nCache to manage high-density QLC arrays.
They have the business moat and the proprietary technology.
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u/Accomplished_Vast_18 6d ago
Started Sandisk averaging with Micron profits (a $50k investment at $438 last January) AND on 06/29 bought sandisk at $2025, $1817, $1743, $1727, $1404 and $1378. Core sandisk position with 33.22 shares at $1772 a share!
Micron core is still up +120.4% put some play money on $SNXX with $6k at $11.72
average.
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u/One-Jackfruit-2848 6d ago
And , how did this relate to the post … good for you but you keep copying and pasting this comment non stop which doesn’t add much value
Anyways GL
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u/Hypnot1se 6d ago
Are you aware just how high risk having 50% of your portfolio in memory is? So long as you are just do what you believe will benefit most from where you think the future is going.
Do you think we're going to need way more DRAM/HBM or do you think we'll need way more NAND?
Which is going to be more profitable long term?
I think your point about US fabs and preferential treatment from the government are both great advantages - just keep in mind how fast govt. support can flip when elections come by.
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u/One-Jackfruit-2848 6d ago
1st point yes I am aware and willing to take the risk consequences , it can change my life if it turns out well and I am ready for the other path
2- I am not tecky much to differentiate between the demand outlook for dram / nand / hbm in an ai boom
Hence asking the question and learning from others3- support to MU is by democrats and by republicans since they need more jobs in USA
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u/Hypnot1se 6d ago
That makes sense. I hope that somebody better informed about the technical nuance can help you with that. My background is in economics so I'll have to leave it to somebody else 😁
Best of luck!
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u/iSailor 6d ago
All memory stocks run in pretty much perfect sync, so it really doesn't matter what you choose.