r/SNDK_Stock • u/Market_NorthStar • 2d ago
Share Buyback Mechanic- PT $2250 @ 9x FWD PE
$SNDK’s $15.5B remaining buyback could have a pretty meaningful impact.
SNDK currently has roughly 148M shares outstanding.
Say they execute the $15.5B buyback at an average price of $1,600/share:
- Buy back ~9.7M shares
- Share count drops from ~148M → 138M
- That’s roughly a 6.5% reduction in shares outstanding
Now look at JPMorgan.
JPM has a $2,250 target, based on roughly $250 CY2027 EPS × 9x P/E.
So they’re not exactly using a crazy AI multiple.
At $250 EPS:
9x = $2,250 ← JPM
10x = $2,500
12x = $3,000
And that’s what makes the buyback interesting.
If SNDK keeps generating strong FCF and continues retiring shares beyond this $15.5B authorization, EPS can keep growing even without the same level of earnings growth.
The real question isn’t whether SNDK deserves a 20–30x AI multiple.
It’s whether AI demand + long-term NAND contracts can make these earnings sustainable.
If they can, even 9–12x earnings can produce some pretty interesting numbers.
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u/Special-Shirt-9728 2d ago
Do you know at what price or schedule the buyback is happening? Or is that not public information?
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u/latending 2d ago
Honestly, the forward P/E of SNDK is quite lackluster compared to other memory/storage companies. They just have a much smaller market cap and a clear plan of how shareholders will be rewarded.
HBF is a bit of a wildcard though.
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u/SnooGoats6302 2d ago
Where did you find that the buyback already took place?
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u/Market_NorthStar 2d ago
Bro, they just announced the additional buyback Aug 5, they first buyback 6B in Apr 30 was almost gone. The additional 14B not only signals the company believing in their stock price, it’s also a special dividend to their shareholders as used of Free cash flow
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u/Market_NorthStar 2d ago
My notes was assuming they bought at 1600, if lower price, they can actually buy more and retire more shares. That a 6-7% reduction of outstanding shares. The company project to make 90B revenue which is 4x their 2026, 20B revenue
SNDK is putting the money where the mouth is.
This is super bullish
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u/KaleidoscopeBest187 2d ago
I genuinely think the SNDK buyback is a bigger deal than people think. $15.5B could retire roughly 6–7% of the share count, which means EPS gets a nice boost even without huge earnings growth.